Members Daily Post: 09/03/18 (complete)

Section 1, test zone, Imperial Cup pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Ayr 

2.20 – Sporting Milan (all hncps + hncp H + m1) H3 G3 9/2.  UP

2.50 – The Orange Rogue (m1) ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A UP

3.25 –

Graystown (all hncps + hncp h + m1) 10/1 S2 UP

Charmant (hncp h +m1) H1 I1 G3 2/1 S4.  UP

5.05 – Another Mattie (m1) ES+ 14/1  S2 S3A  UP

 

Sandown

3.05 –

Soul Emotion (hncp h) (hncp hurdle debut) (Wind Op) 14 7/2   WON 7/2>3/1 

Westend Story (m1) H1 I3 8/11  UP

 

Leicester

2.40 – OMaonlai (all hncps +hncp c + m1) 7/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1 – won last start.   w2 – won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 18th Feb 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/39,14p, +6)  (1 point win bets)

None today.

 

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MUST READpost over at Geegeez, Ultimate Festival Q+A if you haven’t seen it READ HERE>>>

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1< guide)

5.05 – Askamore Darsi UP

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.00 Ayr – Lake View Lad

4.30 Ayr – Massinis Lady

4.55 Leic – Albertos Dream

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Stats/Trends/Pointers

Imperial Cup 

10/195 runners, 37 places 

10/10, OR 124-135 (0/60,12p outside this) 

10/10 carried 11-2 or less (exc claims) (11-3+, 0/45,8p) 

10/10 yet to win above C2 (had won Listed+, 0/33,6p) 

10/10, 2-5 runs this jumps season (0/57,7p outside this) 

10/10, 1-2 hurdle wins (10/113,24p,  0/82,13p outside this) 

9/10 3-8 hurdle runs (9/102,25p,  9 or more.. 1/85,10p) 

9/10, 2-4 places in hurdles (inc wins) (1/93,15p outside this) 

9/10 ran 16-45 days ago (2-15 days… 0/32,4p) 

8/10 had 0-2 runs in handicap hurdles (8/82,20p) 

7/10 had 0-6 runs in handicaps (7/91,21p) 

Trainers: Pipe (2 wins) 1 win… many… losing trainers of note.. A King (0/8,0p) G Moore (0/12,3p) , P Nicholls (0/9,2p)

Shortlist: To follow

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NOTE

I am working my way back to Liverpool this weekend after me Suffolk jolly, via London on Friday… heading down to see a few friends during at the day and a couple of us off to see the king of melancholy, Morrissey, in the evening. Pub Saturday lunchtime to watch Liverpool demolish United, and then a train back to Liverpool. From Sunday it will be all things Cheltenham (some ok racing on Sunday to get stuck into though) + Daily members posts.

As always you won’t notice much difference, Sections 1 and Test Zone will be completed as always, I’ll see if I have time to add anything else. I won’t be ‘tipping’ in any chases on the free posts, I won’t have time.  Saturday’s post is likely to be up on Saturday morning, as early as I can, and possibly Sunday’s, depending on what time I get back and how drained I am! 

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I’ll add the following for one final time before I add it into a separate blog post…

 

CHELTENHAM 2018 

FINAL REPORT : READ HERE>>>

  • Everything is one place now in the link above: stats/trends for 10 handicaps + 3 bonus races, 5 Micro Systems, Owners, Trainers, Jockeys stats/research. That will be it for stats research, unless I have missed anything glaring, esp from last year, which I’ll double check. But I think I have everything I want to focus on. 
  • I have added 3 bonus races… National Hunt Chase, RSA and ‘The Potato Race’ (Albert Bartlett). That will be it for stats/trends/profiles, in addition to the 10 handicaps. I will look to tip in those 3 races above also.. in search of another Tiger Roll 16s or Very Wood 50s. (I can dream!) 
  • I have pulled together the 5 micro angles that I will post qualifiers for…I dug out the ‘Irish Class Droppers’ which did well last year and is definitely one to keep onside. Then there are the trainers, owners and jockeys (Davy R, Tom Scu, P Townsend) research to use as you please – I’ll try and post anything relevant but the 5 Micros are saved in my HRB account which will fire out the qualifiers. Many eyes make light work though so if you do use any stats/content to home in on anything, especially the Owners research, do post a comment! 🙂 

 

PLAN FOR THE WEEK: 

  • For those interested…blog coverage will be much like last year. There will be a daily post that I will create asap before each days racing. As always there are two strands…
  • 1 . providing information/qualifiers/shortlists against the race stats/trends (10 handicaps minimum,+ 3 Bonus races as above) and the various stats reports. I will post qualifiers for the 5 ‘Micros’ and I will endeavour to post up various horses of interest from the other research including the owners/trainers/jockeys research. As with most things on this blog the info will be there to use as you please. I’ll try and get all of that posted as soon as is practical, which in essence is when the race cards/qualifiers are available in Horse Race Base. 
  • 2. My own opinion… ‘TIPS’ to use, abuse, ignore as you please. I have yet to have a shocking festival ‘week’ (Midlands National saved the week one year… +9 instead of 0) and last year we creamed +43 points from the Festival and another 20 or so from the Midlands National on the Sat. I’ll be surprised if my approach/content doesn’t throw up plenty of winners…just whether my own pins land on them, how many I/we back, and how many losers we avoid. I usually set a 25 point ‘tipping’ bank for the week and spread out the points accordingly. I’ll do the odd video preview I suspect. The main idea is not to lose to much and to have some fun! With any luck we/you cheer a few winners home and may even come out in front. Do set a budget for the week – a serious budge, a systems budge, and a ‘play money’ budget! (you know the sort, where 5 mins before the race you go ‘sod it, I’ll back X also’ and you end up with 6 in the race!:) ) 
  • And that’s it really. Plenty of content to read and use as you please, in addition to plenty of chat in the comments no doubt. 
  • The usual daily members posts will continue with Section 1 + test zone.  So each day there will be two posts, Festival Day X, + Daily Members Post as usual. 

 

Cheltenham Preview from Liverpool

I was unable to make this year’s preview but it’s always an interesting night. A couple of blog readers (thanks to Jim) were there and relayed to me horses of interest… I am only really interested in this preview as Andy Holding (Oddschecker tipster, WH radio possibly, has his own speed figures) is always there and he is one hell of a judge, especially on the non handicaps and what horses have performed well against ‘the clock’ – last year he picked out some decent ones, so we shall see how he does this year. In no particular order, of interest, and to note down (and remind me in comments!) 

Andy Holding

-bullish about the speed figures of Next Destination and Black Op in the Ballymore (two EW pokes of interest against the red hot fav maybe – if the rain does arrive, not impossible Samcro switches to the Supreme, which would open this race up) 

-Likes Rhinestone in the Bumper 

-JLT – Invitation Only tops his speed figures 

-Stayers- Sam Spinner tops his speed figures 

Native River tops his speed figures in Gold Cup 

Stormy Island is the best juvenile ‘by miles’ – Triumph (8/1…)

Mr Whittaker is the best handicapped horse in the country according Andy! (Close Brothers Novices) 

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Charlie Longsdon – said if Bentelimar doesn’t get into his race then ‘he’ll win the consolation race at Kempton!’ 

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Other notes…

Callett Mad has a good profile for the Albert Bartlett (yet to check my stats to see if that is true…but the race can go to a hardy/battling sort, esp if it is testing… in my view, so, that theory would make sense) 

Chap from Star Sports said Santini is their biggest liability. 

Sort It Out – watch his ‘comical ride’ LTO in order to qualify for the Pertemps.

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Something of use there I think. In any case, some useful info/thoughts to add into the mix. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. Lip Service Sandown Friday 16:45 2pt win-This one is getting hammered and I haven’t even left work yet so wanted to mention it before it gets backed even further since won’t be looking at other races for another hour or so at least.

    1. Nothing else from me. The selection looks to have a cracking chance tomorrow. Ran a solid 4th on debut for Fergal in a very hot race at Cheltenham which has produced countless winners (7/28, 14p +14.35 from horses which have ran since). He drops down to a class 4 here. Since his last run he has had a wind up. Fergal is 2/4 here in handicap hurdles at the track in the past five years. Paddy is on board for the first time on the horse. This is his only ride of the day and in the past 3 seasons he has an excellent record in class 4s when having one run. (21/56, 28p +37.32 when coming for one ride in a class 4, sp 9/1 or less, away from the North and Scotland). He has ran very well off breaks in the past and Fergal has a fine record getting them fit off a 60+ day break including 3/5, 4p at the track in the last five years. Both trainer and jockey in great form. He won’t mind the ground and I thought he should be favourite. He was 11/2 when I put him up and is already into 7/2 with most bookies.

      1. Well the price of Lip Service has well and truly gone. Just has to do the hard part now. I have decided to chuck a tenner win (so that’s 0.5pt win for me in case anyone is wondering) on Rock on Rocky in the 14:40 at Leicester who has drifted to a price that’s a bit big. Was smashed off the boards LTO in a class 2 but maybe the trip was too short and the break too long. Back to a similar break and a return to 2m4f I have to have a small bet to find out. Horse has a 1st and a place from 2 runs over hurdles at the track so appears to like it here. Trainer in solid form and does well here too.

  2. Hope you picked up on Luv U Whatever who drifted out to 5/1 this morning SP 4/1. Testa Rossa, Arnarson and Al Khan also drifted out beyond 4/1 but none could get home in front. So with only the one winner we end another day in the negative. It’s been hard work recently but I’ll keep plugging away.

    Back to Newcastle tomorrow. Only 2 qualifiers.
    6.45 Jessie Allan 7/1
    7.15 Dream Free 10/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    1. Plugging away is the only way Ken! This game is mainly plugging away, with the odd spike, sometimes sustained for a period, before more plugging! unless that’s just me.

      1. You and me both haha. Nothing else for it. Got to trust the stats. I know it will come good again, just wish it would hurry up 🙂

      2. Ha ha…i love that analogy Josh….it tickled me, but your righ…keep plugging away…it was ‘with the odd spike’ that tickled me…ha ha….but so true. lol.

        1. Positivity in your approach Ken and if it is not working give some thought as to why and then adapt. Long term profits is success and you always need to aim for that. That is why you need a bank of 100 points.

          I will post up some comments from the London Racing Club Cheltenham Festival evening later, but by Sunday certainly. Some useful knowledge from the panel I think.

          1. OK, adding to Matt’s comments (I did see Matt there but he is a bit of a star at these events now and has a fan boy following and so you cannot talk to him for long). I did chat with some chaps in the bard and in the interval as well.

            Tuesday – Getabird in the Supreme. OK there was a lot of comments about taking her on at 6/4 but what if she drifts out to circa 5/2? Would you back her then for value? There was talk of his scratchy action and whether he would be suited to a left handed Cheltenham. Lydia did think that Somerville Boy had a good chance at 10/1. In the Arkle Lydia said that there was a rumour that Footpad had broken a blood vessel in his prep. Luke Tarr said that the bookies always want to lay the favourites at Chetenham. In the Champion Hurdle Phil Smith thought that there was more improvement in the favourite. Matt Tombs thought Melon was the each way alternative as both Faugheen and Yorkhill were not at it any more. Other races – back La Bag Auroir if ti goes on the Mares each way. Any Second Now best bet of the day according to Matt Tombs.

            A point made by Phil Smith – Favourites do not do well in handicaps at Cheltenham.

            Wednesday – Ballymore – Basically Samcro is hyped up and has not beaten much. Black Op is overpriced at 10/1. Vision Des Flos has been under the radar and may not be improving? Phil said that with Samcro on 155 he was on that far clear of OTBS, Black Op and Next Destination. RSA – Monalee very keen and will he get the distance? Al Boum Photo is not far behind Monalee and should be suited by 3 miles.

            Point made by Phil Smith – the top two in the BHA ratings in non handicaps at Cheltenham have historically returned a healthy profit if backed. So well worth a look.

            Champion Chase – Douvan is top rated on past form, however it is likely that he will not turn up. Has the wind op on Altior had the desired affect? Charbel likely to go for the Grand Annual. Cross Country – Apart from Matt thinking Cause of Causes was the bet of the week, Phil thought that TIger Roll’s activity this season made it look like a plot for this race. The Last Samari is top rated but has no experience over these fences and so should be avoided.

            Point made by Phil – Horses that run in the Cross Country have a good record in the Grand National.

            Thursday – Ryanair – Douvan wins this if Ruby rides. Stayers Hurdle – Yanworth is unreliable. Sam Spinner should be the favourite and will get an easy lead. Stamina unknown re Supasundae. Phil thought that this years renewal was a poor race. Apparently Uknow….. had visited a healer and was said to be working well and so 10/1 may be value? Other races – Mr Whittaker was well handicapped and improving. The Storyteller was being well backed. Mall Dini expected to go well in the Kim Muir.

            Friday – Matt thought that Might Bite was easily the best horse in the Gold Cup. Phil said that whilst Might Bite is highest rated there were 11 horses in the race rated within 5LB of him! It was doubtful if Killughtagh Vic would get round let alone come anywhere. In the Triumph there was more support for Redicean than Apples Shakira. However we are talking young horses hers and so not a race to go heavy on. Re the Albert Bartlett Lydia was of the opinion that the race was won by an experienced horse or a brilliant horse. Poetic Rhthym was the most popular selection, followed by Calett Mad. In the Fox hunters, Burning Ambition was top rated.

            One thought that crossed my mind re Ruby was would he be fit enough to stand up to four continuous days hard graft?

            Apologies if I have repeated anything Matt has said previously.

    2. Hi Ken,

      One combo I always follow is Ryan/Stott. Winner today and a couple of days ago. Always have a wobble when suggestions come up against that combo

      Cheers,
      Nige C

  3. Josh, you introduced us to a gem with Ian at SP2A..another 11/1 shot just gone in…..along with yourself and the boys….you now have a very seriously good site…I joined you at the beginning and i can truly say…i think you are reaching a halcyon period…with honesty and humility combined…so refreshing from the lying B/s of the past.

    Cheers mate/..

    Tony Mc.

    1. Too kind Tony.
      I did think SP2A had looked like the best tipping/race adviser service I’d every come across, certainly of those with a daily output, if not best of all. It’s a very unique model and that is key to it’s success.. a lot of tipping services are just one man/woman and their own approach..and all tipsters hit horrid ruts at some point. Ian packs in plenty of value as well, and plenty to flick through/read/absorb, besides being very good at picking out decent priced winners/long term profit. Long may it continue.
      A perfect portfolio along with what we do here haha,
      Josh

  4. Josh you obviously are not busy enough if you can go all around the country socialising so what about a Cheltenham competition for members, doesn’t have to be a prize just for bragging rights.
    you could put up a seperate thread each day and everyone gets 10pts a day to bet as they like ( 1pt win/ew minimum) all selections calculated to sp, i would even do the results and put up a daily leaderboard. could be a bit of fun what do you think?

    1. Martin
      I am up for that but against some of you guys superior knowledge I will start from the bottom of the leaderboard to find my name on it. Lol. But I like a challenge.

      Mike

    2. Haha, my holiday mode is still around 3-4 hours work a day! 🙂 Just building up to a week of 10-14h days of intense study/thinking!

      If you are happy to do ALL the work relating to such a comp, then sounds good to me 🙂 Keeping tabs on entries, scores etc.. yep 10 points, min 1pt EW, so that’s max 5 horses a day? If you’re happy to calculate daily..could take some time to tot up with 4 places etc, if say you got 20-50 entering daily, which isn’t impossible. Up to you… or you just do a daily Naps comp? So only 1 horse, 1 point EW, dec to SP. Or just limit to 2 tips per day or something?

      I don’t want to put up another daily/post / thread, as that could clutter things up, but all Cheltenham Tips could be posted under the usual Daily members Posts, which should be fairly quiet on the comments front as most comments will be Festival focussed and under the Cheltenham posts, bar Ken + Colin’s AW picks.

      Have a ponder and let me know, like I said, I can mention it in the posts and lay out the rules, but you’ll have to do the rest 🙂

      I am sure we can sort out some prizes, months access to SP2A for non members of that, if one wins or something. Ian would be up for that. I’ll have a ponder, but bragging rights as a minimum.

      Longer term I am going to look at getting a tipping league built and as part of blog but haven’t looked into how possible that is, need to investigate, but probably money worth spending.

      Josh

      1. Josh
        I have just the man to help you set it up.
        Ken is a wizard with excel spreadsheets and will be semi retired on 1st April so it will give him something to do apart from his AW tips and his rubbish golf. Lol
        He’ll kill me for this.

        Mike

        1. Cheers Mike. Think it will be a job for a web coding whizz etc. Ideally want to build something like Matt has at geegeez or Betref…the latter looks too much of an admin hassle to use as you have to register then I have to add in users to private league manually etc etc. Ideally I want my own basic cards that you can use to select tips and then of course system that updates all results etc etc. It is complex enough..getting the card data the issue..think there is a legal way to scalp cards etc for that purpose. As I certainly can justify the data licence! So,something to investigate. Need to chat to Matt and a few others for advice.

          1. Thanks Josh I am definitely not your man. I barely have time to do my own tips after work without anything else!

            Mickeydee you’re lucky we’re not playing together this weekend or you might find a 7 iron embedded in your skull 🙂

  5. I third that, really enjoy the comments on here from everyone and it is my first port of call before picking my horses out for the day!
    Anyway onto my own selections today, off to Sandown as i said a couple of weeks ago ,going to stick with grade 1 or 2 courses for the moment and then when confidence comes back may go tipping at lower grade tracks.
    15:40 Sandown
    MIDNIGHT MONTY 9/1 gen
    Considering the favourite is 7/4, 9/1 looks far too generous considering he is progressing, if Rathlin Rose has an off day monty may pick up the pieces and run them all ragged!
    CABRAGH 25/1 gen
    With the favourite squeezed at the head of the market 25/1 is again another value price, the cheekpieces have been re-fitted and hopefully that will stir CABRAGH back into form.

    16:45 Sandown
    COUER PENSIF 15/2 spbet
    handicap hurdle debut and on a good mark if living up to previous form, 15/2 from spbet is way out of line, grab it if you can.
    TZAR DE L’ELFE 16/1 gen
    Bit of a funny one, if he lives up to what he has shown in the past he should place at least. Seems to be hit and miss, hoping today is one of his “hit” days.

    There you go, hopefully will throw up something to put us on the straight and narrow for Cheltenham…

    1. Yes put me down for that. I do struggle in the week for inspiration but come alive when the better quality racing appears.

  6. With regards to the Cheltenham Festival Comp, I run a football supporters website (Burnley sorry chaps somebody has to) before most people abandoned us we had a Paddock page for those interested in Horse Racing, take a look at the link below which is the last Cheltenham comp I ran, it outlines some loose rules could give you an idea on how to make it easy. As well as the Cheltenham comp we had a daily naps, Saturday naps Aintree Festival, etc etc, it was all just for fun and was very popular at the time. By the way the link is just for your interest I am not touting for members.

    http://www.thefootballnetwork.net/boards/read/s37.htm?900,15559156

    1. Used to love going to Turf Moor back in the day Tom…Shanks and Paisley era..
      Pitch was lovely…a class players pitch…Wasn’t the pitch one of those with ‘Sea washed turf’?, or am i going [gone already] gaga….lol

      Tony Mc.

  7. Had a go at whittling down the Imperial Cup field and I’ve been left with two.
    Each has a negative to overcome but not near as many as the others in the field.

    Whatswrongwithyou OR139 is slightly too high but scores well on all other points

    Highway One o One – the only niggle is days off (74) other than that I’m on.

  8. “Point made by Phil Smith – the top two in the BHA ratings in non handicaps at Cheltenham have historically returned a healthy profit if backed. So well worth a look. ”

    Think he is suffering from some recency bias here. According to my stats this is true the last two years but of the previous 13 it only happened once and over the last 15 you’d have lost an absolute packet backing to rated BHA (-9% ROI)

    Slight change of tack but looking at the long range forecast it looks like there will be some quite heavy rain over the weekend easing on Monday and very little over the last 4 days. It will probably ride soft on the Tuesday but may well be heading towards good by the end of the week. Famous last words but I dont see it being heavy even on the Tuesday.

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