TIPS
None. An abject day of small field mid-week racing yet again this season. It is getting a bit tiresome! Maybe just the time of year.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Tom George Chasers
4.00 MR- Bigpipenotobacee
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live test
2.20 MR – Flemerina (12/1<)
2.20 MR – Stoical Patient (12/1<)
4.00 MR – Just minded (12/1<)
*
That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets.
Josh
24 Responses
Not the sort of race I’d normally bet on but having a 1/2tp e/w
M 4.30 – Farmer Matt @25’s
Had a reasonable career to date, acts on most going, owner/trainer/rider now and been back to ptp. Was that to build a relationship and now feels it’s every chance back in a hunter? We will see.
Mike
I should add it is only 2 places
Josh,,
I was reading an article about the ideal conformation for a steeplechase horse
1 STRONG CORRECT FRONT LEGS.
2 STRONG CORRECT HIND LEG ANKLES
3STRONG HOCKS AND HIND QUARTERS
4 MEDIUM STRONG BACK(Short back horses absorb more concussion making them injury prone)
long back horses lack power)
5 LONG NECK(horse uses head and neck to balance so short necked horse can have balance issues)
6RELATIVELY LIGHT FRONT END BUT WELL MADE SHOULDERS AND FRONT LEGS.
7WIDER AT THE HINDQUARTERS THAN IN FRONT
8LONG FOREARM AND SHORT CANNON BONE..
I then had a look at a picture of the great Arkle and he had all those features
would it be possible in unexposed chasers to study their conformation to see
if anything really fitted the criteria or if any well fancied horse with hurdles form
were the polar opposite, or look at pictures of horses who were injured a lot to see if their shape was their problem?
I was told that a horse tracking was important and if the horse rear foot landed a few inches
in front of its lead leg that was a good sign
it would be interesting to know if the really good chasers had this tracking ability and if they were
closer to the ideal conformation norms than average.
Any experts on horse confirmation and if it is relevant to racing
please advise
Well it’s interesting.
It’s relevant if you are a regular race-goer and ‘paddock watching’ is your main edge/way in. There are many who specialise in such things and bet on course etc. Chutney Dave (Daily Punt) has a good eye for such things, as does Adam Norman http://www.notes-from-the-north.co.uk/
But that sort of thing is a bit hard to do if you are not at the track, or do not train yourself in such things.
You do not need to be on top of such details in order to make the chasing game pay.
That is just over-complicating things again. No need. Of course you could decide to become a ‘paddock watching’ specialist and then such things will be very important.
You can think about too many things/approaches in this game!!
Josh
AW bets Southwell
1.30 Love Rat
2.30 Hand Craft
2.30 Bezos
3.35 Archimedes
4.10 Jack Blane
4.10 Coiste Bodhar
These are my personnel bets for which i want to prove that you can win on the AW my stake on all above bets is £60 win.
Please see 3 Feb for this years results on odd occasion there can be up to 4 bets in one race end of the day it is about profit.
please paper trade bets till you are happy to invest any money
all bets are recorded at SP and BFSP no fancy prices which you cannot achieve
Look forward to following your selections Colin. I’ve no doubt you can make a profit on the all weather. Very good start when you posted your first selection at 21.0 BFSP a few days back. I’m sure Ken will enjoy some friendly rivalry for his ‘all weather King’ crown. It’s just what we need, especially with meetings in doubt because of weather. Congratulations on being brave enough to bet and record results to SP/BFSP. I’ve noticed more grumblings recently on these pages regarding people claiming unobtainable or (long gone) bookmakers prices. It’s made me realise there are a lot more people are restricted than I originally thought. Good luck today.
Mark ‘Scoop6’ Burns
Will follow your selections with interest Colin.
Any chance of a brief outline of the logic of each selection?
Colin
The best of luck with your tips, it is a brave man who puts £60 on an AW horse, so I wish you all the very best.
Out of personal interest, are you the Colin Leafe who ran a highly regarded and reputable telephone tipping service for a number of years?
(i assume Colin started at smaller stakes and has been that successful over a long period that’s now the standard stake! Colin will have the betting bank for that level, so for him, I doubt he views it as brave! I suspect he finds our distaste for the AW quite annoying haha)
If you can make consistent profit from predicting which rain drop will reach the bottom of the window first then it has got to be worth trying.
If someone can make a profit from AW then hats off to them. Absolutely hats off, the Bookies run for cover in that case and that’s what it is all about.
My dislike of AW has more to do with the vandalism of great historic tracks and races, the “Americanisation” it brings in terms of clamour for sectional timing; and the perhaps naïve view that the USP of British racing are the bumps and hollows, draw bias, different fence styles and sheer history; that it has, which AW seeks to take over.
Not a bad day Colin!
nice 8/1 winner well done
Good effort today Colin, 2/6 +7 at SP. Well done.
GOLF BETS
Running behind so bets should be on by 6 pm
Last week sadly Matsuyama with drew with a wrist injury lost our money for he played 1st round,Jon Rahm flattered up to the 3rd round.
As there is no racing to speak of I thought I’d weigh in on a couple of topics from yesterday and today.
Over the last 5 years or so I have been trying to train myself as a paddock watcher albeit mostly with 2yos rather than NH horses but I would suggest that a well made horse shares pretty much the same characteristics no matter which discipline.
I agree with all the points that Peter makes other than the long neck which I would qualify by saying that yes the head and neck are relevant to balance issues but a gawky neck ie long, but not attached deep on the chest is just as much of a negative as too short a neck. My mentor in my studies was Nick of B2yor and his thoughts on the subject of confirmation are all here- http://www.b2yor.co.uk/B2yoR_PRev_Explain.htm
I have a cousin who is a noted stockman and he says the simplest way to look at it is that for sheep, horses and cattle you want a brick with a peg at each corner, this isn’t a bad place to start.
Speaking of cousins I was entertained to read the story about Edwulf that Ian of SP2A posted on Sunday,
https://igsrv.org/miracle-of-cheltenham—how-horse-cheated-death
It mentions in the article a fireman who was one of the guys who oversaw the moving of Edwulf, Michael Keel. He is a second cousin of mine and used to be a point to point jockey, he actually rode in the Foxhunters once a few years ago now and I thought it provided a nice circularity to the native that he should also be involved in the rescue of Edwulf after he had run in the Foxhunters. Michael is a fund of amazing stories about the animal rescues he has been involved with as he is the nominate Gloucestershire Fire Brigade animal rescue specialist.
Also, reading the notes from a professional punter available to SP2A members I found myself thinking about the nature of luck and another relative’s part played at Stratford racecourse. Laura Clarke is my brother’s partner’s daughter, so strictly speaking not a relative. She happened to be one of the racecourse doctor’s at Stratford on the day that Jason Maguire had his career ending accident there. In fact it was her first ever day as a racecourse doctor. Adrian was grievously injured and without the expert care of the two racecourse doctors would have died where he fell. Laura tells me that she still has cold sweats when she thinks about it. She accompanied him in the helicopter to the QE.
So what part did luck play? Well about six months earlier Laura was a practicing neuro-surgeon at the QE hospital in Birmingham when she suffered a minor epileptic seizure. This precluded her from continuing with her chosen career and resulted in her fetching up on Stratford racecourse that fateful day with, I would hazard a guess very relevent experience.
She is still racecourse doctoring and was at Warwick last week when the Geegeez syndicate’s Swaffham Bulbeck made his NH debut. She also stood as a Labour Candidate for Shrewsbury, (not perfect then) and used to compete in 3 day eventing. Never mind having a 6 year old and yearling boys.
So luck, we all get our fair share, Adrian Maguire was hugely unlucky to have such a terrible fall and Laura hugely unlucky to suddenly develop her minor epilepsy but my word Adrian was lucky to have someone of her skills by his side and I guess Laura was lucky to think how she had been able to use those skills.
It puts into perspective us punters cursing our luck when £20 goes south.
Hugh
Fascinating stuff Hugh and I particularly recall some “main stream media” attacking Cheltenham Race Course for “pulling a dying horse off the track with a rope” – we now know that was a sensible and practical thing to do.
Having participated in motor sport, I can only agree 100% with the comments about the great work of paramedics and doctors and other voluntary workers who basically provide a service, without which Horse Racing and many other sports, simply could not exist. They are the life blood of the sport.
I rate NH jockeys amongst the bravest of the brave, not that flat jockeys or other in other forms of Equestrian sport are anything but brave.
In the sport I did (not very well but I tried and was good enough to try) I recall the bad luck of a chap who slid off his bike, wasn’t a mark on him at post mortem but he swallowed his tongue and the good luck of a guy who had a crash at Coventry. The track staff there were all trained to work with military precision. A guy fell and had a terrible head injury, he was carried off by said staff. One of them marched off with the stretcher out of step and was publically admonished by the Track Owner.
A week later, there was a pubic apology to said stretcher bearer as Surgeons had saved guys life and confirmed that by walking out of step the guy had helped to loosen/free a potentially fatal blood clot on the brain.
Such are the fine margins of sport and anyone who rides a horse has my utmost admiration, tried it a few times, no thanks, its a long way down!
Hi Ian
Yes i am that man and thank you for your kind words of highly regarded and reputable means a lot to me i have always been honest with my services,however as you are aware punters expect to become millionaires in a couple of months and when you have a losing run they pull the plug because they do not have a suitable betting bank.
I also put Golf bets on Optimum Racing/ Sports Bets for two and a half years for Andrew if you know him.
Unable to guarantee a profit on AW or Golf but will do my utmost to succeed,which ever you decide to follow please have a large enough betting bank!!!
Josh once again would like to thank you for allowing me to put up my bets on your pages and anyone reading these free pages please subscribe to the Members Page for i will save you time for Josh has worked so hard to build this site up to what it is for you and he deserves his reward for honesty and integrity.
All the best
Colin
Here, here to your words Colin
Colin, top man and as you say, tipsters are not miracle workers who can always win.
All I would say to anybody/everybody is that Colin was in his day top notch and highly respected in the profession and I’m sure will be a man to follow on here.
Good Luck
There is a school of thought that luck does not exist. Instead it is a mix of 3 things; how your brain works (emotional reaction); coincidence and sample size (in that you need a million actual events for a decent sample size). It ties up to the feeling of many that ‘Luck evens itself out’.
I think as you get older and have experienced more you are more likely to subscribe to such a theory?
Martin
That actually rings very true in my experience. Certainly in the micrcosm that is horse racing I think you are spot on. In life, well I look back and see every experience as the same a a crossroads, whether you went left; right; straight on, turned back; dictates your life to the degree that a millisecond can have fundamental changes to the point where decision making blurs and pure fate/luck takes over.
GOLF BETS AT +T PEBBLE BEACH
Brandt Snedeker 1 point ew 40/1 1/5 7 CO 40/1 1/5 6 SJ 888
T23 at Scottsdale his best placing since returning from injury,where he showed glimpses of his old form,won here twice in 2013 and 2015 and finished 4th last year
Phil Mickleson 1 point ew 33/1 1/5 6 SJ 33/1 1/4 5 LA SPORTING BET
Evergreen Phil is capable of winning a tournament and why not this week,being a four time winner on a course which suits him.
Information only Top Rated Player Jason Day 11/1
I too like Brant Snedeker at the price, 40/1 available. As a ‘bookie buster special’ I would go with Aaron Baddeley at 250/1. He has won tournaments on the tour and has had a number of top 20 finishes. I believe if he can find his form he will be suited by Pebble Beach. I cannot back DJ at 13/2 despite some of his course form.
Good luck.
Just polished the wheel barrow again lets hope we need it!!!
For Dustin Johnson he appears to peak over January especially Hawaii and for the rest of the season his reputation precedes him regarding his price in the market not one of my favorites no doubt he will walk the tournament now