Members Daily Post: 06/02/18 (complete)

Section 1, Test zone (inc AW), ‘notes’

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

 

Market Rasen

2.20 – Flemerina (m1) 14,30 H1 G3 3/1 2nd 

3.25 – Princess Tara (all hncps) ES 16/1 S2 S3  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/25,12p, -1)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None today, nothing I want to be wading in on with my tipping stake amount. Small fields and quite a few short prices seem to be the order of the day.

The Instant Replay race seems competitive enough but I am intrigued to see how he goes- if you enjoy watching a horse jump a fence then try and watch him. From memory he pinged every fence LTO and you couldn’t have asked for a better chase debut under rules. His jumping could take him a long way in that on the front end, if he can back up that last run. Flemerina is interesting also.. unexposed over fences I wonder if Cook will try and make all on this one. IF he jumps he could get these on the stretch. He stays further than this and they must make plenty of use of him over 19f. Similar to Iskabeg Lane who was held up on his first chase start and then came to Market Rasen in a small field and made all. Now they have introduced him to fences that may be the plan. Only him and Chasma have winning form on soft/heavy. If he was guaranteed to get an easy lead it may make the 3/1 look ok, given the yard form, and the fact he ran well enough LTO.

Elsewhere… of interest.. I am making sure I look at the Geegeez Gold reports as part of my daily routine..specifically the ‘1st run in a handicap’ and ‘trainer change’- Furtado had a 16/1>10/1 handicap debutant winner at Newcastle the other day and had I clocked those stats pre race he would have looked very interesting. Anyway…

HIGH ANXIETYclose 3rd, 20/1, thought she was winning that for most of the way! Need to watch that back, seemed odd..not sure if she has hung behind the eventual winner there and been a bit green/tricky! Won’t be 20s next time sadly. Race was there to be won, clearly fit enough. Some fun for change. May have gone EW at 20s this morning!  in the 3.35 Southwell.. I am going to throw some change for interest at 12s/14s. Not too expectant and my AW dabbles usually end in abject failure. A mere courtier in the ‘house of Ken’ ! I noted that Weymes is 1/1 with handicap debutants at the track. Given he has only had 2 winners here in 5 years that could be significant. The horse steps up to 6f and drops into this C6 with a low mark. She has had a wind op since last seen, and a long enough break in order to get her fully revved up. Weymes has had a 20/1 winner in recent months go in after a 60+ day break. I think he can ready them if he wants to. He has booked Dennis, and they are 2/7,3p when teaming up in C6 AW handicaps. And finally, the horse has plenty of US bred blood on the dam side, and is well related to a few nice types it seems. This surface ‘could’ be the making of her. It’s different anyway. There was a bit to go on there I thought, for an interest bet anyway, on a quiet day. Not much else at double figure prices was grabbing my attention. The market may or may not guide. Given her profile and the break, a drift may be significant. But he does have big priced winners. Anyway, my crisp £5 on the nose is down.

 

 

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NOTE… I find myself in that horrid position of what to do with the Malcolm Jefferson qualifiers. (Princess Tara) I have decided to post as normal through to the end of the main winter jumps season (end April). His daughter Ruth now holds the license and she has been assisting for some time. I suspect it may be a case of carrying on as normal and targeting the same tracks they always have. I will post the qualifiers and leave it up to your discretion. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles 

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.20 MR – Easter In Paris (m3) 9/1 UP

4.00 MR – Minella Tweet (m3) 7/4 2nd

 

 

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TTP All-Weather

3.05 South- Classic Pursuit (m1) ES+ I3 S3A 3rd 

4.40 South- Oyster card (m2) I3 G3  UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Cheltenham Festival 

It will soon be Festival time and it is my most enjoyable ‘analytical’ week of the year. The 13/14 races I look at (inc the 10 handicaps) are some of the hardest punting puzzles all year and I relish the challenge. There is something special about being right in those races and cheering any winners home.  As always it’s wanting to solve the puzzle which keeps me bouncing out of bed at 7am.  I have yet to have a bad Festival since blogging, so one is due! I have yet to go to the Festival, Aintree is more my ‘racing holiday’, but if you want to do it justice, it does take it out of you. As with last year all content will be behind a paywall… as a member you get full access and there is no need to do anything.

There will be the usual big race trends/stats/pointers/winning profiles, which will be used as a starting point for my own tipping. It will follow the same template as last years. There will be trainer stats and some other micro angles… I am going to spend a chunk of this week having a good look at those. And I have some ideas on where to focus in the handicaps (or where to ensure I ponder such horses)… well, three really…

1. handicappers that have shown some smart form before (esp at Cheltenham) and have spent the winter pottering around in small field graded novice races, in heavy.. the big fields, strong pace, decent ground..suddenly makes many seem thrown in, which you have to be to win here- Supasundae is the one horse that is lodged in my head from last year- take a look at his profile before he won, and absorb it.

2. Top weights/top 3 weights… take some time to ponder whether a graded horse may just out-class them- Arctic Fire last year’s example.

3. Gigginstown! They have been responsible for most of my big priced Festival winners on here (Very Wood 50/1, Empire of Dirt 20/1, Tiger Roll 16/1, Champagne Classic 20/1) and are worth close attention. They all seem to be stoutly bred and O’Leary is really only bothered about winning chases… everything else is a stepping stone to that. It does mean they all seem to stay and many relish the strong pace of a Festival race and this stiff climb to the line, on decent ground. Many haven’t faced such conditions all winter.

Finally… I suppose we really should have Joseph O’Brien fixed in our minds also. He can train and has plenty of nice horses, the market seemingly meaning sod all. You could see him having plenty of horses that may relish festival conditions and this weekend just gone would suggest he is quite the ‘target trainer’.

So, a few things there to ponder.

Links to last year’s reports, if you wish to browse through, are below…

Trends/Stats Guides for the races I focus on… READ HERE>>> 

Trainers in focus/Micro Angles… READ HERE>>>

More Micro Angles (1st Headgear/previous Festival winners)… READ HERE>>> 

 

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Results Update: Summary below, link in Key to be updated asap

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 29th Jan 2018 – 4th Feb

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 7/41,10p, -10
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/26, +3.25 
  • S1 (0/6,0p,-6) S2 (1/12,1p, -1) S3 (1/6,2p, -3) S3A (2/5,2p, +4.375) S4 (3/8,5p, -0.4) S5 (0/4,0p, -4)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/5,0p, -5

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/15,6p, +4.5

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. Going early tonight, stuff to do. Southwell tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    1.30 Abraj Dubai 13/2 & Love Rat 8/1
    2.00 Foxy Lady 7/1 & Lady Jane 16/1
    2.30 Helen Sherbet 6/1 & Hard Graft 4/1
    3.05 Memories Galore 5/1
    3.35 Sir Geoffrey 4/1
    4.10 Beau Mistral 12/1
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

    PC is in for diagnosis. Hope its not too serious. I saved my main data file to Onedrive. Now it’s telling me the file is corrupt. Latest backup is 14 Jan so might have to spend some time rebuilding it. Bollocks!!

    1. Back up your data on the cloud mate, you can then have instant access on any device.

      Good luck with your selections, double stakes tomorrow I reckon.

      1. That’s why I kept it on MS onedrive but for some reason the file there is corrupted. I’ve asked Microsoft for some help in recovering it but no response yet. Fingers crossed.

        1. Sorry not reading your first message correctly. The MS service is hard work via the telephone I used to find. They can fix such issues usually but it takes them time i have found in the past.

          1. MS hard work? yes, incompetent at best, excellent incompetence in product knowledge and technical issues.

          2. Tony Carroll is 7.84% SR Hcps and 6.9% SR No Hcp races @ Southwell. Hardly blistering stuff it has to be said.

  2. Sorry to hear that Ken, hope you’re able get things straightened out without too much trouble. I’ve had mine go bananas before it certainly turns the world upside down for a while.

  3. Two outsiders for tomorrow – 1.30 Sou Deolali, decent fist effort and can improve, 50/1 available. 3.05 Sou, Bogart runs on the all weather for the in form Kevin Ryan, 14/1 available.

  4. Going to Southwell today, taking on Ken…
    sorry, no time for write ups.

    15:05 Southwell
    BOGART 12/1 gen
    CLASSIC PURSUIT 9/2 gen

    15:35 Southwell
    SIR GEOFFREY 4/1 gen
    KATHS BOY 20/1 gen

    16:10 Southwell
    DEBEN 11/2 gen
    COISTE BODHAR 6/1 gen

    small stakes again as I`m not great with AW form.

    1. Well at least you covered your bets with Coiste Bodhar. Been a poor few days for me.

      The good news is I’ve got my data back. Phew!! Fingers crossed for an upturn in the next few days.

  5. Yep Josh regarding change of trainer first time in a handicap etc a good way in to a betting angle . Martin todhunter struck with a stable newcomer yesterday the free website olbg can help excellent write ups from punter’s regarding this sort of thing

  6. Am i missing something with Bogart 3.05 Southw ? i see he is mentioned a couple of times on here. The horse is 0/11 in class 3, 0/22 at the distance, and never run on fibresand so complete unknown ,and 0/8 when running 60+days.How can you back that?

      1. On another day of dire racing the best advice I can give anyone is keep your stakes low for you in such racing. I did pick 2 outsiders for an interest on a dire day and they both failed to place. I did back the winner of the 3.05 at 2/1 late morning and the money came but it had to work hard to land the SP of 11/10. But my experience tells me not to get properly involved in low grade racing unless you are aware of something at a decent price.

        1. thats great, so you ‘tip’ or mention a horse like bogart at 10/1, which ‘with your experience’ you should know wasnt value, then back something else in the race which won, but you didnt mention til after the race, i see…..

          1. I dont think this is the type of site to tip a 2/1 shot on. I dont think that the users of the site are looking for such selections? If they would wish me to I will in future. I try to find some value for long term profit which is hard to do at the 2/1 >11/10 range. I was waiting for a drift in price on the exchanges for Foolaad but that stalled around 2/1 and so I decided to have a go. It got home but did not win like an 11/10 shot I thought? I backed Bogart at 14/1 BOG Monday evening and the big outsider I noted in the first race at BFSP at the same time, both for small stakes.

            These days of dire racing are hard to make money on. It looks like we have another day of it tomorrow.

    1. Hmm, well I’ve just taken a look…
      He is only 1/41 in the last 5 years so a case of ‘how you could back him’ in general, but everything has a price…
      And on the basis that he doesn’t like winning very often it’s hard to pigeon hole his ‘ideal’ conditions…
      He has had a wind op since last run, so some hope on that working wonders… may be a last roll of the dice though.
      The trainer form is a way in.. 4/9,5p last 14 days, he is on fire. Ryan can ready them after a break if he wants to, so again, a case of whether you think fitness question built into price.
      He has only raced on AW once at Newcastle and never here, which is unique surface, as they all are to a degree. As such you can flip it around and say it’s an ‘unknown’ – he may relish it, he may hate it.. not many win first time up on this surface from memory, so always a risk.
      His best form is over 6f, but having extra stamina is no bad thing for this track, can take some getting.
      He is on a career low mark, mainly as he looks regressive and hasn’t shown much for a while, but he will find his level one day.
      If you are just looking at him wanting to see ‘proven form’ in conditions then clearly you would leave! Many a race is won by a horse doing something different.
      at 10s some clearly feel worth the roll of the dice.
      Seems a very competitive race with plenty of in form horses and those proven at the track. Not a race i’ll be getting involved in, but then my thoughts on the AW not worth too much!

  7. Dire racing today, but 1.40 Sedge,,, throws up Fiddlers Flight…Trainer is out of form..but no value in the obvious front two, so with 9/1…10s on offer i’ll have a dabble of a bit shrapnel as Josh calls it lol. It’s the only horse with win and placings ..won on the going and class no other horse passes the criteria.

    Tony Mc

  8. Can the Tony Carroll angle give again?
    410S Beau Mistral has form here in C4/5 in the past and is in the lowest grade today.
    Shown signs of being in form until an equipment accident lto. Had two wins last January and won off 64 in 04/17 so ‘well handicapped’ off 55. 25/1 BOG

  9. …and Ken has BM in his list too – a golden boot indicator if there ever was one!

    I wouldn’t discount the other Carroll runner in the 3.35 either – Kath’s Boy. Comes off a similar 4 month break to Mister Music, ridden by same jockey, has form in soft ground so may like Southwell. A Bushranger too. Doesn’t have the lengthy history of MM and nothing else to recommend other than that piece of soft ground form, but might still go OK at between 16 and 20-1.

    Poetic Force ran a great race for the stable only a few evening’s ago, suggests there may still be some mileage.

        1. ASTONISHING ONCE AGAIN .. I COULD HAVE SWORN THE CARROLL HORSE WON THAT NO PROBS TO MY EYE ………. THOSE CAMERAS SPONSORED BY ATR ALRIGHT ..LOL 🙂 STILL CHOSE THE RIGHT ONE OF THE HYPED ABOUT CARROLL HORSES 🙂

  10. Think the reasoning behind most selections on here is, we are after value, like i said in an earlier post , we are looking for the price to be right, rather than whether the horse will win or not.
    Josh has said before to look for the price to be “right” in your minds eye..
    To which end he would look at my 6/1 shot and maybe say that is not enough value to make him back it, but, i would quite happily back it each way.
    It is a personal preference and one we all have to battle demons with…
    Was Coiste Bodhar value today? maybe at 6/1, i thought so, definitely at 8/1 (his SP), he was, but, only watching the betting i would have steamed in again with him, even though he only won by a nose, it was the price i thought that was value, if that makes sense?

    1. Yep, value isn’t about the actual price.. as in it isn’t arbitrary.. 6/1 isn’t value and 8/1 is! (the game is all about ‘price’) And it’s more art than science and each up to the individual, but of course the price = a % chance of the horse winning, and you are judging that in context of race, again on feel etc.. or just judging the price against the horse..having weighed up it’s pros and con’s.. the ‘taking on a weak/dodgy’ favourite is a decent starting point, because if you are right and the price is wrong, it means that every other runner is automatically value to some degree.
      an even money shot can be value, a 7/2 shot can be value.. if I could forever more back 7/2 shots sent off at 2/1 I would be very wealthy over time.. my view is that you have to be right more often the shorter you go- and being right is tough, and you have to be spot on with more factors…whereas the bigger you go the more you can be wrong, but also things you cannot factor in you may get away with etc. If that makes sense.
      Clearly I have yet to crack it, certainly not with the jumps ‘notes’, it will come, because i’m a restless perfectionist and hate being crap at something!
      Odds is a game of maths but you don’t need a decent maths brain to make it work.. but you do have to be trying to back horses at a bigger price than you think they should be. That has to be the main driver, and is what lures you away from the very top end, esp if you think the shorties are worth taking on and should be a bigger price etc.
      If you think a 6/1 shot is value and it drifts to 8s, logic dictates it is bigger value and you should go in again!

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