Trainer/jockey combo – Live Test
2.45 Newc – Smooth Stepper (12/1<) WON 3/1>2/1
As it’s been a bit quiet outside of weekends i’ve repeated today’s ‘tip’ from the members’ post… these are just my own subjective take on any stats qualifiers within the post, where I use them as a starting point. In truth I had a barmy run at the back end of the flat season but as yet my jumps eyes have yet to find their focus. Still, i’ll keep chipping away and +110 points profit from 200 1 point bets since the start of September isn’t too bad, and it’s a long term game…. so, what is Section 2 from today’s members’ post… includes some other random bits and pieces but I try to provide content that’s an interesting/informative read, if nothing else!
2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)
Test/trial : ‘NOTES’ (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/24,12p, 0) (1 point win bets)
3.50 Newc – McGinty’s Dream – 10/1 (gen) UP
Awful.. the class drop/trip move has made no difference there! He has run the same race as LTO..detached, and a shoddy round of jumping..big/ponderous. I knew he was a hold up sort but thought he be comfortably at the back of the pack, in touch. He has also pulled Lucy’s arms out for a long way through that, which isn’t something he has done before from memory but I could be wrong. Unsurprisingly had little left when they turned for home. Awful. Moving on.
This one seems worth a stab to my ‘yet to hit any form/consistency jumps notes eye’ at around 10/1. This is a shocker of a race on a paper and this unexposed chaser makes plenty of appeal I think. He hacked up at the track in a C5 handicap hurdle and is doing a few things differently from recent starts, on this his third run over fences. He steps up in trip here and back down in class. Fingers crossed those two changes allow him to get into a rhythm at a pace which keeps him bang there throughout this. He was always on the back foot LTO and could never quite go with them over 17f in a C4. That took it’s toll on his jumping and he didn’t run too well. However that was also after 54 days off and given the weather/abandoned meetings etc, I suspect he may have needed it. It’s reassuring to see him return after 21 days here. They also reach for a tongue tie. So, he has winning form as a hurdler, is unexposed as a chaser, and is doing a few things different. And he’s a price that I’m happy to take a stab at. There are plenty of reasons for why he should run his best race over fences to date and in this line up he looked a shade overpriced. Dangers could well be his stablemate but he isn’t 10/1 and has a big weight to lug around here. He will appreciate the step back up in trip and wont be far away if running his best. Still lightly raced. And we all know what happens when I tip in a race in which there are multiple stats qualifiers! There is some money for Brown Trix but 6s seems short for a horse that has jumped poorly on all chase starts and is now 0/10,0p in career. And there has been some early money for Log On… I can’t say 6/1 was jumping out at me for that one.. yes the yard is in fine form but it has been all month where this one has run twice. He PU on his previous two chase starts and still races keenly. He is unexposed though as a chaser so I won’t fall off my seat if he wins. This race shouldn’t take much winning really. IF McGinty’s could repeat his hurdles winning performance here but over the larger obstacles, he will out-run these odds and go very close. In the trainer’s blog post he sounded fairly bullish for both his runners in this ‘I would hope to see them both involved at the business end of the race’ – he rarely uses that last phrase. (his blog is HERE>>>)
That’s it for tips.
re-cap… three winners in section 1 yesterday. Sadly they didn’t hit any strategies but hopefully a few of you landed on one or more. My head may not have been in a good place on Sunday morning and race analysis was the last thing on my mind (two too many Old Fashioneds I think!).. One thing that did catch the eye is that all three were winning for bang in form yards, (14,30) – a couple of months back one of you asked me to take a look at results for such types and I haven’t got round to it yet but I will have a flick through and see if there is any validity in focusing on those in a more systematic way. Never a bad starting point though, homing in on the qualifiers running for in form yards, as per the Geegeez metrics as explained in the Key.
Attention Please.. I should have just tipped him without thinking given I did so LTO…i know at least one of you absorbed my ‘notebook’ comment and had a go at 11/2 or so. In that weekly article I wrote…
Attention Please (19.01.18 Muss) – another tipped horse in ‘the notes’ who came to grief… he was just starting to get rolling when he came down two out. I think he’d have won but you must jump. I can’t really blame the jockey. It could be this trip (2m7.5f) was just on the sharp side here, having won over 25.5f and 26f on his last two starts. He was certainly doing his best work late but had to pick up speed to catch the horse in front. Provided this doesn’t leave a mark I’d be interested in him NTO. He still looked well handicapped to me. I’d probably want to see him back over 25f+ , or 24f at a more galloping track/longer home straight. He will need to be well placed, but they haven’t got to the bottom of him just yet.
Stepped back up to 26.5f he has travelled much more easily near the front and won cosily. Suddenly those Old Fashioneds seem a tad more expensive!
Cloudy Bob- well he was just demonstrating the skills of his new trainer.. quite a trainer upgrade for this 11 year old and he has done it well enough. Honeyball has a fine record with ‘trainer switch’ horses running first time up for him, even with veterans it would seem!
Nigel Twiston-Davies.. back in form… last weekend at Cheltenham everything was cutting out/running poorly, inc a few well fancied ones. This weekend he had a couple of winners who found plenty when asked. I suspect another who eased off the work over Xmas, combined with the old flu jabs. Many more yards seem to be bouncing into form again now, after a quiet 6-8 weeks or so. Fingers crossed that’s a good sign for section 1 moving forward.
That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets.