Members Daily Post: 02/02/18 (complete)

NOTES x1, Section 1, test zone (inc AW)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Chepstow

2.45 –

Modeligo (all hncps + hncp c +m1) ES I3 G3 14/1 S1 S2 S3 S5 UP 12/1 

One Style (hncp c +m1/m1) 7/1 UP 12/1

3.55 –

Alf N Dor (all hncps +m1) ES+ 8/1 S3A  3rd 

Waldorf Salad (hncp c +m1) 12/1 S2 UP

 

Catterick

2.55 – Dark Sunset (m1/m1/m2) 14,30 ES H1 I3 G1 6/1 S3 S4  S1 S5 UP 6/1>12/1

3.30 – Same Circus (hncp c + m1/m1) 14,30 ES H3 I3 G3 2/1 S3 S4  WON 2/1>15/8

4.05 –

Iskabeg Lane (all hncps + hncp c +m1) ES+ H1 I1 9/4 S3A  2nd 

Tommy The Rascal (all hncps) H3 I3 15/2 Fell

Inchcolm (hncp c) I3 G3 7/1 S1+S5 PU 12/1

4.35 –

Perseid (all hncps +m2) 14,30 ES+ H3 I3 G3 9/2  S3A S4  UP

Derrynane (m1/m1) 14,30 ES H1 I1 G1 4/7  S3 S4  2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/24,12p, +2)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.45 Chep – Modeligo – 16/1 (gen) UP/PU 12/1

*hmmm. Well the ground was a niggle, but an unknown and at that price happy to have a dart… he has laboured there as they turned for home. Poor run, and didn’t build on minor promise LTO. The market wasn’t exactly strong for his chance. He will strike some point soon enough and his mark has come down. On better ground NTO he could be a decent price. I’ll keep an eye on him and pray i don’t impale myself at the bottom of another cliff.

We have just entered this horse’s time of year as he usually pops up somewhere between Feb-July, with Feb-May the time he strikes over fences. In fact in all handicap chases between Feb-May he is 4/7,5p, +11.5 SP. From Sept-Dec he is 0/11,0p. In all handicap runs Feb-July he is 7/15,9p. So, he may not strike today, but he will soon enough. One to track for sure. This profile could be down to many things, including the trainer bringing him along slowly Setp-Dec and as such getting his handicap mark down… he has dropped 11lb in his 4 runs this season to date. I have watched his last run and that was very promising to my eye. He rarely races RH but he made a move approaching 3 out into around 5th and he was staying on well. He walked through the next and was then hampered in the straight..but he showed more there than he’d done so far this season. He is 2/7,3p at the track in all races, 1/5,2p in chases. Stan Sheppard rides this track very well… 8/27,10p, +33 in all handicaps,  7/23,8p when riding for his father. Given all of the above, and the fact he has a couple of ratings pointers by his name, I had to have a go. I would like to see market support for him. There is a niggle about this trip in this ground but at 16s I had to roll the dice. He may want it slightly quicker but this looks an open race with a weak Fav… Evan W is a bit cold at the moment and this is only his daughters second ride over fences, the horse reverting from hurdles. He may win, but at 9/4 happy to take on. I’d struggle to muster much enthusiasm for the others. I have had a saver on One Style, just in case. It does get a bit annoying when I tip one only to see another qualifier win at 6/1+. That one could be anything over fences and Venetia can ready them. Not one i’d want to wade in at a single figure price given the break/lack of chase experience, but i won’t fall off my seat if he ran a good race.

As far as ‘been there and done it’ horses go, Modeligo was a must at 16s to my eyes. I’m excited to see how he goes today and whatever he does, i’m fairly confident I will come out in profit backing him in the next few months.

That’s it for ‘tips’…elsewhere…

Of interest (NOT tips..do look at any horses mentioned yourself) … 3.20 Chep… Champagne Chaser EW (4th 25/1, front 3 a bit ahead in truth).. I may have lost even more of my marbles (i’ve still got a bag full) by wanting to have a small ‘interest’ EW tickle on this one. He clearly hasn’t relished chasing but switches back to hurdles here. Vaughan is in decent form at present, 3/15,4p last 14 days and that was my ‘way in’. On closer inspection this horse is unexposed in conditions, 2/2 in handicap hurdles over this distance. He has raced plenty of times over further and evidently doesn’t stay, on what we can see. He will race prominent and in an open race, if mentally in the right place, may out-run 12/1. I had a small EW bet to try and boost my weekend drinking fund. Oh and he was miles clear on GG speed ratings which caught the eye.

 

Tony Carroll Watch

In all likely hood this boat has sailed and I should have pulled my finger out sooner. He runs two in the 5.45 Wolvs today, both 22/1 shots. His 33/1 yesterday drifted from 16s in the morning so there are clearly no market clues as to his runners. Frantical + Rightway are the horses.. they will get some change at BFSP (i’ll keep an eye on prices and take one if they start to move) just in case. Can you imagine if one goes in and i’ve had nothing on! All recent form should be ignore.. I think the yard has been sick/ill/issues for an age.. I remember the Brighton 3 day meeting in the summer where Carroll usually did well, many of his hit my flat stats, and from memory most of those fell out the back of the TV. You can make some sort of case for both I think, Rightway shows up well enough on Geegeez instant expert and has a similar profile to yesterday’s winner..well a similar time off etc.

Do with all that as you please, GL with any bets.

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Re-cap -Ah bugger. Well, when you are in a bit of a rut everything seems to go wrong. My ‘shorty’ may still be running although it’s always a joy to watch Grand Vision win, even when carrying none of my money! Boy he can jump a fence. He’s out-classed them there. Sod the three unexposed ones, class has won out. And stamina. And Guts. And everything else seemingly not on a going day.

Do NOTE that Grand Vision was another winner for the S3A ‘double or treble rated’ angle… ie.. an Elite Squad+ (ES+) qualifier combined with at least 2 ratings pointers (2x red symbols, or 3 red symbols) Iskabeg Lane and Perseid would be an example from Friday’s qualifiers above. Since Sept 1st they are now: 41 bets /12  wins / 18 places / +21.725  That’s decent enough and there is plenty of logic for why they should do well.. they are the ‘best of’ the trainer stats angles from my TTP reports in terms of stats sample..well at least 10 winners, 25% win SR, 50% win/p SR. And then we have ratings pointers which are based on the ability of the horse, at least two of them. We shall see how that develops. It would be welcome if that became a niche +50 point profit a year micro to add to the pot. But best not get ahead of ourselves. Such qualifiers may provide another decent ‘starting point’ for you though, knowing the stats that underpin it above. 

Heurtevent – when you are in my current malaise you will blame anything…and this time the sun gets it. Not the shitty rag but that big yellow thing in the sky. It had the temerity to appear just at the wrong time at Towcester, ensuring a load of fences were dolled off, inc all up the home straight. I think that cost this one victory (possibly)..mainly as he had jumped well and had track position on the eventual winner. Said winner hadn’t jumped very well and there was every chance he’d have clouted one up the home straight. But it also affected the pace. When jumping fences you go slower. In effect it has turned into a flat race up the hill. That uses more energy/stamina and in that ground it has just found out the selection. Painful. Another placed horse. He looked like he may scoot away turning for home. The fences may have helped him mentally also. But we shall never know. Annoying. I’d like to be sat here saying he was beat fair and square. It all evens out over time though. Apparently. 🙂 On we go. (I am just saving myself for Festival week, don’t worry, a +100 point job is on the cards!)

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

2.55 Catt – Dark Sunset (m2) UP 12/1

3.30 Catt- Same Circus (m1/2/3) WON 2/1>15/8 (somehow!)

4.35 Catt- Derrynane (m3) 2nd

 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

1.40 Chep – Thomas Patrick WON 7/2>6/1

 

Handicap Chase System (starting points)

4.05 Catt- Mount Oliver (10/1< best) PU

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TTP All-Weather

Wolvs

5.45 – Top Offer (m1) ES I1 12/1 S3 S6 

7.45 – Ok By Me (m2) ES S3 

Dundalk 

6.00- Wild Shot (4yo+) H3

8.00 – Geological (4yo+)

Lingfield

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From yesterday…

Advised Strategies… the link in the Key has been updated, you can read HERE>>>

An up and down month on that front and it has felt like that for a while. 

S1 has started off the year well, +11 points or so. Hopefully it can repeat that every month. 

S2 has wiped it’s face, small profit to BFSP. A steadying month after a poor end to 2017 (which was still very good over the stretch) That strategy isn’t for the fainthearted. Fingers crossed it’s about to have a spike. The 16/1-25/1 EW option, or indeed just focusing on those, has done well enough. We shall see how that approach progresses but it could be another focused way to attack the qualifiers. 

S3/S3A..well the less said about those the better at the moment. Not good at all. S3 is definitely on the naughty step and as of a few weeks ago I cautioned against following them systematically. I think I was too eager in praising the approach..it hit +60 odd points at one stage, a rush of blood to the head…it may be the idea/logic was just built on sand. S3A is holding steady so we shall see how that goes…statistically at least it’s on a much stronger foundation, given the stats criteria. Combining them with ratings pointers may be a way forward, as per one of the appendices in the link above. 

S4 has hit an expected wobble I think, but no concern there. Still a 50% win/place SR in the month with a few very close results. If the Jumps S4 can add +50 points over a year i’d take that, + another 50 from the Flat turf version. An approach with a 30% SR will still have a losing run of 19 every now and then. 

S5 isn’t cutting much ice at the moment either. But it’s a big odds approach and two decent winners suddenly make it look decent again. 

The Jumps Test Angles added +17.5 points to the pot and the notes +4. 

So, a mixed bag. I am still comfortable advising S1 and S4 as the two strategies to start following, esp if new.. but as always all content is here to use how you please. A mix of systems, subjective analysis etc. Start small, build up over time, the profits will come. It’s a long game, so I keep telling myself. 

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RESEARCH REPORTS REPOSITORY: UPDATED HERE>>>

‘NEW’ specifies any new entries to the research articles post.. two weekly articles and the Fact Sheet have been added, in addition to everything else.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Over My Head hated that run up t’hill at the end and did for it. Sitting quite comfortably til then. Deffo a win to be had at that grade.

    C 2.45- Modeligo @16’s e/w
    A ttp qual as well. Not been all that far away lately and has won at similar OR. Good team.

    C 3.20- We’ll Be There@14’s e/w
    Can’t get my head round this one. Drops in class and does FU with the extra weight. Back up in class, down 1/2 stone and shouldn’t be far away.
    Mike

  2. Josh
    I hope you had a few shillings on Tony Carrolls Mister Music won 33s 4.25 Southwell.
    You have been singing his praises over the last few days so I thought it was worth a couple of quid. Thanks for pointing me in the right direction.

    Mike

    1. Sadly not! Glad you had a go… I rarely back anything not mentioned on the blog somewhere, either in post, the comments, or my SP2A email! I’d have mentioned him if Id had a nibble, in truth I didn’t really look at the AW at all, I should really have been tracking him and all his runners! Some run he has been on since 26th, may not be stopping as he had been out of sorts for a good 6 months i think. Am sure the odd other one may pop up, had better go on Carroll watch.. a bit after the Lord Mayor’s Show though after that one fell in!
      Always pointing in some sort of direction, less right in recent weeks 🙂
      Josh

    2. I backed Mister Music at 14.1, saw it drift to 33.1 and canceled the bet for 90% of the stake, oh dear such is racing.

      1. Oh Roy, never ever do that again haha. Never be put off by a drift if money is down, let it ride! Unless you can console yourself with the amount you have saved from such an approach, and if that is your strategy then fair enough.

  3. Well you could almost have predicted a blank day after yesterday’s results. I was almost tempted to leave it alone and then I remembered I don’t believe in that superstition pish lol. One consolation – I started off January with two blank days and that turned out alright 🙂

    On to Lingfield and Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    1.30 Highland Pass 9/1
    2.00 Varsovian 4/1
    2.35 Craving 4/1
    3.05 St. Mary’s 18/1

    Wolves
    5.45 Top Offer 14/1 & Sunshineandbubbles 11/2
    7.15 Glorious Player 6/1
    8.15 Plucky Dip 6/1 & Light From Mars 10/1
    8.45 Joey’s Destiny 5/1 & Lucky Lodge 9/2
    1pt win each.

    Good Luck

  4. Haha Ken, I was with you on the blank prediction day but also with you that one can’t just duck out after a day like yesterday. I guess it’s all too easy to think like that when you’re in ‘test mode’ but the test is over time and riding the downs with the ups! Onwards and upwards and downwards!!!…and back up again!!

  5. It was inevitable Ken. I was with you though and its a test of a very important skill in this betting lark and that’s DISCIPLINE.

    On to tomorrow!

  6. Trying an experiment again and seeing if i come out in profit, two horses each race (dutching, but not, not splitting stakes, just backing both to each way stakes and seeing if i can make profit). Been tinkering with my picking of horses for a while now and want to see if this works.
    Discipline is key with all these things, so, here goes…
    15:20 Chepstow
    QUIDS IN 7/1 sp bet
    DAISY DE SIVOLA 18/1 VC

    15:55 Chepstow
    CATCHING ON 9/1 sp bet
    HANSUPFORDETROIT 10/1 gen

    let`s see how they get on..

      1. Happy as the proverbial with that and the other two were picked before I got email from SP2A. Will go again tomorrow and will probably fall on my sword, but , will stick with it, may need to retune/refine every now and again.
        Happy to basque in the glory, if only for one day though!!

  7. Morning,
    Thanks to Josh and jubilympics yesterday for making sure it was a good day at Wincanton yesterday.
    I’m still kicking myself for not having anything on Grand Vision (although I thought he was done for when outpaced 4 out).
    After a quiet January, Tizzard horses are looking really well and hopefully back in form – but i’m not quiet sure what Valhalla and Grand Vision beat though, so won’t be getting carried away just yet.

    1. Morning Dan,
      I had a fear you may have missed the message! (although in that scenario if they fall out the back of the TV that is preferable!) Glad you had a go.. very good ride, made a crucial error but jockey knew what he had and was patient, took time and paid off. Sadly didn’t do the 18/1 FC with the second!! 🙂

      Grand Vision- you and me both. He is lightly raced for his age in truth and he seems to be getting better. Something Harry C said a few days back would suggest there hasn’t been a virus or anything.. more simply due to the ground/conditions, they went very easy on them over Xmas/early Jan…combined with flu jab season no doubt.. they could have a bumper Feb/March/April if that’s the case. Certainly if you like the price their yard form should be at bottom of concerns now.

      Glad you had a good day, at least one 5/1-7/1 winner usually ensures not too much damage is done.
      Josh

  8. off after a biggie today, 1-20 chepstow Big Fred 100-1 ew ran a fair bumper fto not disgraced didn’t look as good first time over hurdles at Wincanton lto but could come on for the experience and worth a nibble at the price.

  9. Josh
    Tony Carroll had the pleasure of going to his stables any time that i wished could not ask for a more open and honest trainer,see him on course and if he had one which he thought should go well he would say they did not all win of course.
    Couple of courses that he liked to run his horses on was Doncaster both codes and Goodwood do not know what his stats are at both courses but have had a few double priced winners at both he certainly is not a favorite man.
    Any one looking for a trainer then Tony is one to consider he makes every one welcome and there is a farm house about a mile away where you can stay.

  10. One to watch today – Cobblers Son 1.10 Chep

    this will definitely be better than seen so far. Currently 150 some bookies, highest seen so far on BF around 210 and currently best 190. Could go either way from here.

    It’s a shame this is 2 miles and instinct says today might not be the day, I was hoping for 2m4 to 2m6 for next run and it may step up that that next time, which I think will be a pointer.

    No surprise to see a 50 length + beating, just hope that it doesn’t run (too) well and blow it for next time.

    1. Perfect educational run. Under pressure around the 4th, responded well enough to confirm has some ability. Finished a long way back but under no obvious distress. Further next time and maybe better ground and might give a big priced winner provided there are at least 2 or 3 fairly good in opposition.

    1. Indeed, a little tickle when he had drifted, couldn’t bring myself to back him at morning prices, 7/2, 9/2 given chase debutant, but 6s just acceptable to my eyes for the Lacey stake. Hit 8s I think for short time, missed that.
      In theory, other than when he eventually goes out of form, it should keep ticking over.. the logic/foundation is very sound. He just needs to keep buying/sourcing horses however he has been etc

  11. Very sad news about Northern trainer Malcolm Jefferson who has died of cancer
    Had some good horses over the years and a very able trainer who was very down to earth
    Lets hope Waiting Patiently wins a big race in the Spring as a lasting memory
    RIP

  12. Yes was a brilliant trainer and did it with limited resources,hopefully daughter can continue to keep stable turning out winners,also the brother of Jamie Codd passed away this week

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