Members Daily Post: 02/02/18 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Chepstow

2.45 –

Modeligo (all hncps + hncp c +m1) ES I3 G3 14/1 S1 S2 S3 S5 UP 12/1 

One Style (hncp c +m1/m1) 7/1 UP 12/1

3.55 –

Alf N Dor (all hncps +m1) ES+ 8/1 S3A  3rd 

Waldorf Salad (hncp c +m1) 12/1 S2 UP

Catterick

2.55 – Dark Sunset (m1/m1/m2) 14,30 ES H1 I3 G1 6/1 S3 S4  S1 S5 UP 6/1>12/1

3.30 – Same Circus (hncp c + m1/m1) 14,30 ES H3 I3 G3 2/1 S3 S4  WON 2/1>15/8

4.05 –

Iskabeg Lane (all hncps + hncp c +m1) ES+ H1 I1 9/4 S3A  2nd 

Tommy The Rascal (all hncps) H3 I3 15/2 Fell

Inchcolm (hncp c) I3 G3 7/1 S1+S5 PU 12/1

4.35 –

Perseid (all hncps +m2) 14,30 ES+ H3 I3 G3 9/2  S3A S4  UP

Derrynane (m1/m1) 14,30 ES H1 I1 G1 4/7  S3 S4  2nd 

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HERE      Jumps 2017/18: HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 28th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/24,12p, +2)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.45 Chep – Modeligo – 16/1 (gen) UP/PU 12/1

*hmmm. Well the ground was a niggle, but an unknown and at that price happy to have a dart… he has laboured there as they turned for home. Poor run, and didn’t build on minor promise LTO. The market wasn’t exactly strong for his chance. He will strike some point soon enough and his mark has come down. On better ground NTO he could be a decent price. I’ll keep an eye on him and pray i don’t impale myself at the bottom of another cliff.

We have just entered this horse’s time of year as he usually pops up somewhere between Feb-July, with Feb-May the time he strikes over fences. In fact in all handicap chases between Feb-May he is 4/7,5p, +11.5 SP. From Sept-Dec he is 0/11,0p. In all handicap runs Feb-July he is 7/15,9p. So, he may not strike today, but he will soon enough. One to track for sure. This profile could be down to many things, including the trainer bringing him along slowly Setp-Dec and as such getting his handicap mark down… he has dropped 11lb in his 4 runs this season to date. I have watched his last run and that was very promising to my eye. He rarely races RH but he made a move approaching 3 out into around 5th and he was staying on well. He walked through the next and was then hampered in the straight..but he showed more there than he’d done so far this season. He is 2/7,3p at the track in all races, 1/5,2p in chases. Stan Sheppard rides this track very well… 8/27,10p, +33 in all handicaps,  7/23,8p when riding for his father. Given all of the above, and the fact he has a couple of ratings pointers by his name, I had to have a go. I would like to see market support for him. There is a niggle about this trip in this ground but at 16s I had to roll the dice. He may want it slightly quicker but this looks an open race with a weak Fav… Evan W is a bit cold at the moment and this is only his daughters second ride over fences, the horse reverting from hurdles. He may win, but at 9/4 happy to take on. I’d struggle to muster much enthusiasm for the others. I have had a saver on One Style, just in case. It does get a bit annoying when I tip one only to see another qualifier win at 6/1+. That one could be anything over fences and Venetia can ready them. Not one i’d want to wade in at a single figure price given the break/lack of chase experience, but i won’t fall off my seat if he ran a good race.

As far as ‘been there and done it’ horses go, Modeligo was a must at 16s to my eyes. I’m excited to see how he goes today and whatever he does, i’m fairly confident I will come out in profit backing him in the next few months.

That’s it for ‘tips’…elsewhere…

Of interest (NOT tips..do look at any horses mentioned yourself) … 3.20 Chep… Champagne Chaser EW (4th 25/1, front 3 a bit ahead in truth).. I may have lost even more of my marbles (i’ve still got a bag full) by wanting to have a small ‘interest’ EW tickle on this one. He clearly hasn’t relished chasing but switches back to hurdles here. Vaughan is in decent form at present, 3/15,4p last 14 days and that was my ‘way in’. On closer inspection this horse is unexposed in conditions, 2/2 in handicap hurdles over this distance. He has raced plenty of times over further and evidently doesn’t stay, on what we can see. He will race prominent and in an open race, if mentally in the right place, may out-run 12/1. I had a small EW bet to try and boost my weekend drinking fund. Oh and he was miles clear on GG speed ratings which caught the eye.

Tony Carroll Watch

In all likely hood this boat has sailed and I should have pulled my finger out sooner. He runs two in the 5.45 Wolvs today, both 22/1 shots. His 33/1 yesterday drifted from 16s in the morning so there are clearly no market clues as to his runners. Frantical + Rightway are the horses.. they will get some change at BFSP (i’ll keep an eye on prices and take one if they start to move) just in case. Can you imagine if one goes in and i’ve had nothing on! All recent form should be ignore.. I think the yard has been sick/ill/issues for an age.. I remember the Brighton 3 day meeting in the summer where Carroll usually did well, many of his hit my flat stats, and from memory most of those fell out the back of the TV. You can make some sort of case for both I think, Rightway shows up well enough on Geegeez instant expert and has a similar profile to yesterday’s winner..well a similar time off etc.

Do with all that as you please, GL with any bets.

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Re-cap -Ah bugger. Well, when you are in a bit of a rut everything seems to go wrong. My ‘shorty’ may still be running although it’s always a joy to watch Grand Vision win, even when carrying none of my money! Boy he can jump a fence. He’s out-classed them there. Sod the three unexposed ones, class has won out. And stamina. And Guts. And everything else seemingly not on a going day.

Do NOTE that Grand Vision was another winner for the S3A ‘double or treble rated’ angle… ie.. an Elite Squad+ (ES+) qualifier combined with at least 2 ratings pointers (2x red symbols, or 3 red symbols) Iskabeg Lane and Perseid would be an example from Friday’s qualifiers above. Since Sept 1st they are now: 41 bets /12  wins / 18 places / +21.725  That’s decent enough and there is plenty of logic for why they should do well.. they are the ‘best of’ the trainer stats angles from my TTP reports in terms of stats sample..well at least 10 winners, 25% win SR, 50% win/p SR. And then we have ratings pointers which are based on the ability of the horse, at least two of them. We shall see how that develops. It would be welcome if that became a niche +50 point profit a year micro to add to the pot. But best not get ahead of ourselves. Such qualifiers may provide another decent ‘starting point’ for you though, knowing the stats that underpin it above. 

Heurtevent – when you are in my current malaise you will blame anything…and this time the sun gets it. Not the shitty rag but that big yellow thing in the sky. It had the temerity to appear just at the wrong time at Towcester, ensuring a load of fences were dolled off, inc all up the home straight. I think that cost this one victory (possibly)..mainly as he had jumped well and had track position on the eventual winner. Said winner hadn’t jumped very well and there was every chance he’d have clouted one up the home straight. But it also affected the pace. When jumping fences you go slower. In effect it has turned into a flat race up the hill. That uses more energy/stamina and in that ground it has just found out the selection. Painful. Another placed horse. He looked like he may scoot away turning for home. The fences may have helped him mentally also. But we shall never know. Annoying. I’d like to be sat here saying he was beat fair and square. It all evens out over time though. Apparently. 🙂 On we go. (I am just saving myself for Festival week, don’t worry, a +100 point job is on the cards!)

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

2.55 Catt – Dark Sunset (m2) UP 12/1

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From yesterday…

Advised Strategies… the link in the Key has been updated, you can read HERE>>>

An up and down month on that front and it has felt like that for a while. 

S1 has started off the year well, +11 points or so. Hopefully it can repeat that every month. 

S2 has wiped it’s face, small profit to BFSP. A steadying month after a poor end to 2017 (which was still very good over the stretch) That strategy isn’t for the fainthearted. Fingers crossed it’s about to have a spike. The 16/1-25/1 EW option, or indeed just focusing on those, has done well enough. We shall see how that approach progresses but it could be another focused way to attack the qualifiers. 

S3/S3A..well the less said about those the better at the moment. Not good at all. S3 is definitely on the naughty step and as of a few weeks ago I cautioned against following them systematically. I think I was too eager in praising the approach..it hit +60 odd points at one stage, a rush of blood to the head…it may be the idea/logic was just built on sand. S3A is holding steady so we shall see how that goes…statistically at least it’s on a much stronger foundation, given the stats criteria. Combining them with ratings pointers may be a way forward, as per one of the appendices in the link above. 

S4 has hit an expected wobble I think, but no concern there. Still a 50% win/place SR in the month with a few very close results. If the Jumps S4 can add +50 points over a year i’d take that, + another 50 from the Flat turf version. An approach with a 30% SR will still have a losing run of 19 every now and then. 

S5 isn’t cutting much ice at the moment either. But it’s a big odds approach and two decent winners suddenly make it look decent again. 

The Jumps Test Angles added +17.5 points to the pot and the notes +4. 

So, a mixed bag. I am still comfortable advising S1 and S4 as the two strategies to start following, esp if new.. but as always all content is here to use how you please. A mix of systems, subjective analysis etc. Start small, build up over time, the profits will come. It’s a long game, so I keep telling myself. 

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