Free Daily Post: 02/02/18 (complete)

Just some micros today inc McCain, + £1 trial…

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/jockey combo – Live Test

4.05 Catt- Iskabeg Lane (12/1<)

*

Extra.. the qualifiers from my McCain test angles in the members’ club.. we shall see how they go today…

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

2.55 Catt – Dark Sunset (m2)

3.30 Catt- Same Circus (m1/2/3)

4.35 Catt- Derrynane (m3)

*

That’s the lot for today.

Josh

p.s…

21 Day Trial For Just £1 : If you missed my email about Brett Love’s racing service, you can read it HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. copied from members post last night

    Over My Head hated that run up t’hill at the end and did for it. Sitting quite comfortably til then. Deffo a win to be had at that grade.

    C 2.45- Modeligo @16’s e/w
    A ttp qual as well. Not been all that far away lately and has won at similar OR. Good team.

    C 3.20- We’ll Be There@14’s e/w
    Can’t get my head round this one. Drops in class and does FU with the extra weight. Back up in class, down 1/2 stone and shouldn’t be far away.
    Mike

    1. I hope we are right about Modeligo Mike! 16s was silly I thought, and good to see price contracting, hopefully genuine and it keeps going down. Expecting a big big run but i’ll brace for a value loser. GL

  2. Josh/ian
    you say that your win percentage is lower than you like.
    but the percentage I am interested in is the percentage of your selections
    who finish a shorter price than you have put it up at.

    As a trader it is about market moves, professional players have a eye for value
    so as you guys analyse these races in great detail it is obvious you spot value win or lose.

    if 75% of the selections you put up start at a shorter price
    than you recommended(on betfair).
    ie if a horse you put up at 12/1 starts at 8/1 but is still backable on betfair
    12/1 then for a trader this makes no odds.

    I have been looking at your selections and I must admit a high percentage
    are trading close to the off at a much lower price than the one you have advised at

    As a trader by instinct I get punting wrong a lot because the losing runs
    effect my emotions a bit and I start doing silly staking.

    When I trader I am happy to trade in hundred even thousands
    and that can go a bit pear shaped when punting.

    with a lot of the races you tip in the liquidity in the betfair markets
    make trading risky and at the big festivals the markets are so strong
    that the prices are often more affected by insider trading than expert analysis.

    I have been looking for a service that has a good record of tipping better than
    betfair sp at early prices

    Can you send me a list of your previous selections and the prices recommended
    as I am looking at becoming a full member to use your selections for trading
    I am rebuilding my capital to take up the challenge.

    what I am looking for is a service that consistently selects horses/sports/politics/etc
    at prices great than they go off at least 75% of the time

    I am not bothered about roi/pl or number of winners
    the ability to spot value to me is the amount of times you beat SP
    a lot of luck is involved with racing but if you can beat betfair sp
    a high percentage of the time then that is a real test of skill
    which

    1. I am also a trader and would say markets generally contract nearer to race time as a rule. Therefore I would suggest that most of Josh’s selections do contract. What I do with Josh’s selections is back and then lay before the off as they shorten and so have free bets on them. No loss but the potential to win. I appreciate I lose the price with the free bet. Simple stuff but obviously you have to be not working to do it all the time, otherwise life gets in its way. If you are on four different exchanges and are liquid it is easy.

      1. Thanks Martin,
        That was just the info I was looking for.
        Josh and Ian are brilliant race analysts and have a eye for value
        they are racing men and I think the trading side doesn’t come into it for them.

        I respect their racing knowledge very much but I like your ideas
        about the risk free bets as I used to trade pricewise, back at his odds
        and then lay off close to the off but the edge has gone there
        To be fair I think Josh is a better analyst than Tom Segal
        as Josh concentrates very hard on his strong area on three mile + chases.

        I also take your point on Ebbsfleet and Weymouth I am beginning to realise your are a
        man to be noted Martin

        Your ideas

    2. Peter

      There are 2 conflicting phrases “the customer is always right” and “you can’t please all of the people all of the time”. I genuinely and respectfully think that what you seek is somewhere between shangrila and lala land.

      I can only speak for myself and don’t even know if you subscribe to my service or not? That’s not really the issue and I will try to respond from my own personal perspective.

      We all want more winners, when I or SP2A tip every winner in every race we tip in over a 3 month period (bearing in mind we seek value), then I will gladly retire, let all subscriptions wind down to their natural end and vanish to the Beach – in other words It ain’t gonna happen; that’s before we look at the kind of bigger priced winners we seek to find.

      A 20/1 winner from 10 tips or 10 x 2/1 winners from 10 tips – I know which we are more likely to find, hence our method has evolved as it has. There are tipsters who can pick loads of winners at 2/1, well done them, but imho that’s not tipping its stating the obvious.

      ROI or POT Profit on Turnover to me IS sacrosanct and the most effective and important measure. We have only recently paid any attention to ROI to advised, that actually started when we did a trial for Josh, prior to that 99% of our focus was on ROI to SP and BSP; we aimed at 20%; over 7 years we average around 17%, there are many who say “you can’t make a profit to SP” I say politely that’s rubbish. Of course anything you get above SP e.g “advised” is a bonus.

      I can again only speak for myself, I am not a Trader; I am not a heavy or moderately heavy gambler, but members feedback; old and recent tells me that our advised prices are generally available for 10-15 mins after mail sent as long as there has been no mad rush to Exchanges and Oddschecker, and that at 11am around 3 hours after mails are sent out that 80% of our advised price is available 80% of the time. In fact, one old SP2A Member has told me that 20% of the time SP is greater than our advised price. It is not something I really have the time nor inclination to research and discuss; I don’t have the time or the energy; I’d rather focus on analysing and trying to find big priced winners. I can’t control the markets; I think Bookmakers are bent and my chosen preference would be to ban them; nationalise them and have a national tote pool to benefit racing by being non profit making churning millions in to racing and basically setting price based on number of people on said horse viz a viz total pool on that race. Works well in France other than I’d abolish the silly coupling rule (well apart for that loud mouth Michael O’Leary). I digress…

      I am actually sending members (as many will have seen) a 7 week 7 section article from a Professional Punter who uses us, he turns over £1.2m a year in bets and seeks an ROI of 10% and for the last 2 years he has surpassed his ROI target thus over £100k net income, he employs 3 staff and their costs are accounted for in that net figure and that is to SP and not advised. He covers Horse Racing with us and 2 other Tipsters and also Golf and Football and “fun bets”.

      Prices will always fluctuate before the off; one of the biggest cons is a horse who enters the stall at 8/1 and returns 4/1 e.g markets that we cant bet on connived “in running” I’m not talking exchanges here but genuine Bookmakers. I also fear the “Lydia factor” bless her, wonderful lady; a Brummie like me and she can talk up a 20/1 we’ve tipped at 20/1 and is 20/1 ; 2 mins before the off and guess what it returns 10/1; why because Lydia is an outstanding judge of form and horses and diddly squat we can do other than (a) thank the lord we are on at 20/1 if not (b) scream.

      I hope this helps; I would politely and respectfully say that whilst trying to help anyone at any time, what you are seeking is frankly impossible to match/achieve unless you can find/employ someone to do it for you on a 1 to 1 basis, and pay them the going rate. There are a few people who take on 5-10 private clients but whilst we charge ball park £1 a day for a year and slightly more pro rata for shorter periods; and Josh charges considerably less, these “private analysts/tipsters/agents would be looking at what we charge a year on a daily basis and some commission on top of that; lucrative if you can do it, but I’d want to sleep at night and don’t have a double barrel surname or an Eton education.

  3. BILLIRICKY TOWN interest me Glen tamplin has invested Millions in the club and aims to get them
    into the football league is a few years.

    They have only lost one game all year in their current league and are way ahead of the opposition
    and should be way to good for the league above then as well next season

    What interests me is with so much hype and media coverage
    what price are they going to be next season, on pure players and facilities they should be different class
    so will they be put in at a Celtic price at 1/5 or so or will the bookies want to get them going up in class

    interesting conundrum for the odds compilers maybe one will go up early and make a rick
    any football experts out there who would estimate the true odds
    non league football is a mine field for bookies as one rich new owner can turn
    a rubbish team into league winners.

    A few years ago Greys were doing ok but I was told that they were selling off all their best players
    and they didn’t win any of their last 14 league games after

    1. The same applies at Salford City with the class of 92. They look ready to join the National League next season. It does go wrong though, look at Ebbsfleet and Weymouth. # Money down the pan.

    1. Hi Peter,
      Well if you are wanting to use it to trade i’m not sure I would bother, in honesty what I do in there won’t be for you I don’t think. Lots of stats/systems and mainly/exclusively focused on handicaps. I do some ‘tipping’ in there but the jumps tips need some work, as does my 3m+ chase tips on here.
      I don’t know what you think the members’ club is but from your various comments and your take on racing, based on how you currently approach the game, i’m not 100% sure it’s for you, but that’s the point of a trial.
      No idea when is a good time or bad time really.. the last couple of months have been a struggle in places, the odd green shoot. Who knows. Sadly it’s hard to predict when the winners may come etc.
      I have no data for you on what shortens etc etc.
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh,
        I have no preconceived ideas about your service but what I do know
        is you work very hard in your efforts to select winners and are always looking to improve.

        The main thing that really strikes me when I read your stuff on the blog is
        the fact you want to do what you do to the best of your ability there is no trace of arrogance
        or that you know it all.

        To me that is the way to go there are hundreds of way to solve a puzzle
        and the method isn’t always that important.

        I coach squash and I usually find the youngsters who turn out the best are the ones
        who love the game and the process rather than the results and funnily enough they get the best results in the long run.

        The way you use good research can be different to different people
        some who join your service may have £5 on every selection
        some may have more and some might just love the info
        I may or may not use it in a different way and it may or may not help me but
        playing racing is about many angles.

        I will never reach your level of research or analysis so why am I thinking
        that I can win betting when I don’t have the time or the mindset to do the spade work

        On the other hand I am a whizz at maths and made thousands trading numbers
        to a racing man I suppose I am a bit of a lepper and the bookies agreed closed all my accounts.

        To trade well on advice you need a decent percentage of selections to contract in betfair sp
        that’s the point of the trial.

        When I had multiple accounts with the bookies I was more an arber than a trader
        squeezing out money using various tactics

        but with no accounts to play with I am now looking for something different
        I want to back a horse on betfair and then lay it off near the start of the race

        eg back at 10/1 lay at 8/1
        if 55% shorten 25% stay the same and 20% get bigger long term you win.

        The question is do you want someone who plays like this to be a member
        if you don’t mind let me know when you have a offer and I will join.
        and if you like feedback I will post how I am playing and with what results
        Thanks
        Pete

        1. Pete, you are free to use the content however you wish, part of the appeal is I provide plenty of different approaches and information to use as you please. Part of the point is that I do most of the research, provide strategies / starting points, for you to then use how you please.
          I don’t really care how members use the content as long as they get enjoyment from it and it helps them enjoy racing, and all the different angles etc are profitable over time.
          I personally have no interest in trading and comments in the members post usually focus on horses people fancy or the odd question.
          There are no special offers, just the ongoing options as per the ad at the top of the sidebar to the right (if you are on desktop)
          Best
          Josh

  4. Great thanks Josh £7 for 7 weeks sounds a pretty good offer.

    I will get my act together and be ready to start in a few weeks
    so will be joining soon
    till then will still be reading the blog because
    you have some very good posters on the site

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