This post, and video, touches on a few areas that I could improve on when it comes to all things 3m+ handicap chases, which form the backbone of the ‘free tips’. These have done well in recent years, certainly from a profit/ROI point of view, and nothing is more important than that really. (2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/19,7p, +4) However, the truth is that I don’t feel I am ‘progressing’. The P/L has been the same for the last couple of years and I still find myself making the same mistakes. I am a better punter than this time last year, but could be better still. There are many areas I need to improve on. This post is an attempt to do just that. I’m starting from a solid foundation but I always think I can do better. I have spent some time pondering my tipping efforts over the last week or so and have tried to go ‘back to basics’. There are some common themes, as below, that I need to have front and centre of my mind.
The video below is the longest one I have recorded to date, and deliberately so. Well, i didn’t try and make it short! (which never works anyway) It is split into two parts, with the fist 25 minutes discussing the points below the video. I expand on those points and my thinking behind them. The next 40 minutes of the video is spent looking at 4 real life examples – horses I tipped and races I tipped in. There are errors a plenty. You will always make mistakes in this game. That is why the puzzle is so hard to solve. And that is why I enjoy it so much- the challenge. In this racing bubble of ours I live for being right (tipping a winner/solving the puzzle/coming out in front over time/remaining disciplined) which is hard to do. With any luck this re-setting of my brain, and focus on the points below, will make me a better punter moving forwards. With any luck I may actually show some signs of progress!
As always the aim is to offer you something of interest to read/watch. With any luck there will be some ideas within this post that improve your own betting or at least give you something to ponder.
Any comments, thoughts, questions etc are always welcome and you can post them below.
With that said, the video… put the kettle on, and remember you have a pause button- you can watch it in chunks! 🙂
(part 1 is 25 mins, part 2 the rest.. I think you need to watch it all for part 2 to make more sense)
Let’s get to it… (i’m not expecting an Oscar nomination…)
Some common areas that deserve more focus when it comes to ‘the chasing game’…
The Chasing Game
Back to basics…
- Is there/could there be a lone front runner? Could they stay there?
- If there are a few pace pushers on paper, could one see them off early on?
- Others are out of form / trip change / not suited to conditions
- Why may a horse now front run?
- Change of headgear
- Change of jockey
- Distance move (esp if dropped in trip)
- Inexperienced > want clear sight of fences
- Trainer Form/Stats
- Are there any trainers in the race in red hot form, how many?
- Look closely at these runners
- Are there any stand out ‘stats’ to support a case/way in?
- Last Time Out Winners / Which horses are evidently in form?
- Are there any thoroughly unexposed horses in the race?
- Looking for horses not proven in conditions who ‘could’ relish them and take a big step forward. Which horses have the most interesting profiles? The lurking ‘could be anything horse’ – note them/study them, esp if a decent price.
- Assess the strength of the market leaders
- Are they still value? Should they be taken on? Should I leave the race?
Areas to improve on in 3m+ handicap chases (notes)
- Assessing the top of the market
- Not being blinkered by one horse…assume they may be rubbish and look again
- Special attention on lightly raced ‘could be anything’ types (who may relish conditions and be ahead of the handicapper)
- The age-old battle…between ‘been there and done it’ horses and those that haven’t- who have proved they definitely don’t handle conditions or may well relish them/improve for them. Do not get blinkered by needing a ‘been there and done it’ horse.
- What is the horse doing differently? Could they improve for those changes?
- Dig deeper into any trainer stats for said horse.