Members Daily Post: 29/01/18 (complete)

section 1, test zone, very important message, Tony Carroll…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Plumpton

3.55 – Act Now (m1) I3 9/2  2nd neck

4.25 – Be Daring (m1) 14 H3 G3  3/1  UR

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Hereford: No Stats profile this year

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 21st Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 2/21,11p, +5)  (1 point win bets)

NONE, no tips…

Nothing at the prices that I want to wade in with my tipping stake but certainly a few on here look interesting today…

Act Now – you’d expect a better performance here on handicap chase debut, back up in trip, a weak enough race, NF has been booked (him and Coleman are AJHs go-to jockeys really , and Sean Bowen getting a few rides when free also) and you’d expect a better run today. Qualifies on the new AJH test below and with any luck can get that off to a good start. It could well be between this mare and Clondaw Rigger who will race prominently, jumps, gallops, and is in form. If Act Now finishes ahead of this one I suspect she wins.

Snapdragon Fire… 5/2 may seem about right esp given the big weight but this is a shocker of a race. Really poor. He clearly has ability and you suspect Dicky will be aggressive on him as he stays further. He ran well LTO although I have a question mark against his attitude..not sure if he went through with it LTO or was just outstayed. Handicap debut, down in trip, poor race, Johnson booked. Shame he wasn’t 6s+, but I think that may tell you more about the quality of oppo here.

Elsewhere..well I had a flick through the cards with some of the ‘fact sheet’ angles/jockeys/trainers in my head… and some notes on a quiet day, starting points to use/ignore etc. I haven’t gone wading in on these but some ‘interest’ wagers maybe!

Jeremy Scott/Nick Scholfield team up with a couple at Plumpton. They are 4/8,4p in the last 30 days and Scott remains in decent form, 6/22,8p last 30 days. I thought Two Hoots in the 2.25 looked interesting at 13/2.. will have come on from that last run, unexposed, and interesting he is pitched into a chase so quickly. Clearly his jumping may be poor so not one to go mad on. I thought Blue April at 11/2 may follow up in the 4.25… visor replaces blinkers, dropped in trip, likely to get an easy lead again I think or try and make all. Be Daring will no doubt be chasing him home and maybe Harry’s claim will help. Maybe a roll reversal but they both may be fighting it out again.

Finally..in the 4.10 Hereford…Tom Lacey has a bumper horse running..you can’t back those systematically as such and nor those having their second career run…but at 15/2 I thought he looked a solid bet, maybe EW. I’d be mildly surprised if he finished out of the money. Lacey is still in form, the horse is likely to get better with racing as Lacey’s do (mostly starting from a solid foundation anyway), Tom Scudamore has been booked (rode his winner at this track at the last meeting for us), he is fit, seemingly handles soft and being a 4 year old gets quite a weight concession- in this ground that could count for plenty. Many of the big yards in this are in iffy form… Pemberley is worth keeping an eye on for Lavelle..the market can guide with hers, esp the bumper newcomers. The Skelton horse could be too good but I suspect Lacey will be disappointed if He’s A Goer isn’t in the mix. He may appreciate this stiffer test than LTO also. At 15/2 I thought he was worth a dabble and the most interesting horse running today, not listed on this page as a stats qualifier somewhere.

Do with that as you please! They may all run shockers but may add some interest to the afternoon.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Micros 

Tom Lacey (any odds)

2.40 Here – Snapdragon Fire 5/2 2nd (not one to trust)

A Honeyball (5/1<)

3.55 Plump – Act Now (m2) 9/2 2nd neck

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Other

Handicap Chase System (Starting points) (10/1< best)

3.55 Plump – Clondaw Rigger 5/2 UP

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TTP All-Weather

None.

NOTE… trainer in form… A few weeks back I mentioned Tony Carroll and how at some point he was likely to burst into life. At the time he hadn’t had a winner in over 90 days and evidence suggested there was something wrong – maybe an illness. In any case, in the last 14 days he is 4/20,8p,+15…his last 7 runners… 1,3,6,1,2,6,1… a winner at 16/1, placed horses at 16/1 and 20/1 that went very close. He has had AW winners and jumps winners. Most of his have just bounced into form from nowhere…which you’d expect if they had been running when not quite right. It means their handicap marks have come down. So, I’d note anything he runs in the coming days/weeks, and his runners may well be a decent starting point… he runs Beau Minstral in the 4.50..16/1. 

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

VERY IMPORTANT!

  1. Payments to my members club are automated unless you cancel pre payment. Many of you who took extended 4 month trial periods pre xmas will be coming to the end of these trials over the next few days/weeks. Clearly I hope you stay for longer but unless you cancel you will be charged. When logged in on desktop/tablet you can cancel within the admin box in the top right hand corner. I can cancel it my end if there are any problems. 
  2. I pride myself on my honesty, integrity and fairness and if you meant to cancel but paid by accident, please just email me. I have always operated a no questions asked refund policy for accidental payments. Just message me and I will process the refund asap. Contact email is in the Key, as it has always been. (I will be on a train from 12-4pm on Monday) 
  3. Thank you to many of you who have decided to stay for the foreseeable future. I hope you can see some value in the content moving forwards and how it may add to your enjoyment of horse racing. It has been an iffy couple of months for sure but this game is all about the long term. I will continue to offer content of interest on a daily basis and with any luck you can see the long term value in said content and find a way to use it moving forwards; even if you just view it as a magazine subsription! 🙂 Finding an approach to suit you can take time and I’ll keep doing my best to keep us all on a profitable path in the long term, as well as having some fun along the way. I’m always aware that there are many things I can be doing better but am as confident as I can be that if you put your trust in RTP and all that goes with it, you will be a profitable punter over time.

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Results Update

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Hi Josh I don’t know when my membership runs out if it is soon can you let me know as I lost my card and I don’t know if the bank will honour the payment as I want to continue I might have to rejoin
    Regards Dave Russell

  2. A disappointing end to the week yesterday with no winners and a loss of 9pts on the day. Another topsy turvy week but we manged to come out of it with a small profit. Results as follows:
    w/c 22 Jan – Staked 58pts, Profit 5.5pts, ROI 9.48% or £27.50 to £5 stakes
    BFSP – Profit -6.46pts, ROI -11.13% or -£32.29 to £5 stakes

    12 Dec to date – Staked 398pts, Wins 61 (SR 15.33%), Profit 107.55pts or £535.26 to £5 stakes
    BFSP Profit 33.58pts, ROI 8.44% or £167.90 to £5 stakes.

    I’ve changed BSFP to 2% commission because if you are betting on every one of my picks your commision will quickly come down to 2%. Thought this was more realistic.

    AW Meeting at Wolves tomorrow: Qualifiers as follows:
    4.50 Beau Mistral 14/1
    5.25 Strictly Carter 8/1 & El Torito 7/1
    6.30 Stellar Surprise 11/2
    7.00 Polly’s Gold 16/1 & Blue Harmony 4/1
    8.00 Chosen Character 22/1 (EW) & Morache Music 16/1
    1pt win except where noted

    Good Luck

    1. You know what they say Ken, wash out one day, double stakes next day!

      Had a look through the Monday cards, usual stuff. Jimmy Bell, 1.40 Her, was well clear of the third last time out and 14/1 seemed OK.

      1. I pay 8% on Betfair Exchange due to my volume of trading and amounts staked. I pay a premium. I do use the other trading sites but it is always best to spread your money around and so Betfair comes in handy now and then.

      2. Ah ok thanks for that. I thought 5% was the max commission and 2% for regular betters. I’ll have a look again and amend accordingly.

        1. The 8% comes as a premium charge. Betfair contacted me to inform me of the increase in commission. I did discuss it with them but it was take it or leave it.

  3. Been following Beau Mistral for a number of years since winning a very fast sprint for Paul Green at Redcar in 2013. Horses that prove they can win faster than average sprints (of any grade) generally pop up once or twice a season for a good few years afterwards. You just don’t (obviously) know what race it’s going to be, hence really only worth looking at when they’re at bigger prices.

    BM did just that at Wolves last Jan (can’t remember exactly but somewhere in the 30s or low 40s BF). Off 40 day break that day but doesn’t look as if the break is actually the key/important. Has run 2 reasonable races for today’s rider, finishing close up both times. Not hard to see a prominent run and might be able to kick 2 clear off the turn and hold on. These older sprinters can often still nail it on their day.

    Odds aren’t great now though and I think has dropped a couple of points from this morning.

    Unfortunately the Carroll form thing is well and truly out of the bag (even heard a commentator mention it a few days ago, probably after Captain Cat was beat 2 centimetres)…..but kudos Josh for spotting a potential change in fortunes first well before it was obvious….landed me some nice returns anyway!

    Watch out for River Dart.

    1. Good to hear you’ve been on a few of his in recent days…we shall see if the market cottons on..given most seem to arrive out of form, for obvious reasons, some may open up at bigger prices than they should be.
      No idea what happened to BM in 4.50? I did have a small tickle on the nose to find out.. no idea if saddle slipped but he went backwards very quick and jockey seemed a bit helpless..unless that was his style!

      1. Was caught in between horses in around 6th/7th into the first turn, to my eyes jockey looked comfortable, was going well, and I was waiting for the burst between horses off the turn.

        Wishful thinking!

        Something went wrong but couldn’t see exactly what, the horse seemed to become unbalanced, maybe bumped, maybe saddle. Anyway lost all chance there.

        I’d say a run to ignore…not really evidence it can’t cut it any more and could still turn up at a nice price in next 3 or 4 runs.

  4. After mulling it over all morning I decided to throw £7.5 e/w on Houblon Des Obeaux in the 15:40 at Hereford purely on him being thereabouts over the past 2 years in some of the best winter staying chases and the fact that he drops to a class 3 for the first time in his career so you can expect that one to finish 4th.

  5. One to keep an eye on, difficult to tell if today will be right but will ultimately be winning races…

    Little Allstar 1.40 Her

    By Morozov, 3rd in a point against at least one goodun, then midfield in a very hot Huntingdon bumper packed with at least 5 that might be winning class 2 and above over next 4-5 years.

    There’s a chance Heskin could go from the front, and probably worth watching just before the start to see where lining up.

    Most likely will need the experience here, and will be a shame to see a good mid 100s BF run to ruin it for next time…but if it does go off in front and has been schooled well enough, not impossible to see a top 4 finish against this field ( a few of which look as if they might be OK, but generally most look as if they might need experience/time).

    1. Ran well, finished around 6th full of running but couldn’t stay with the leaders when they quickened from around 3 out. Far enough back to hopefully get a good price next time…but equally not exactly an under the radar run unfortunately.

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