Free Daily Post: 29/01/18 (complete)

just the micros, some brief notes on 3.40



I had a look at the 3.40 but I don’t want to take on Another Venture..just the sort of fav that were he 7/2+ I may have been with. He is fit, in form, won LTO, trainer in cracking form, the horse is young, progressive, should be more to come and he races prominently/leads. In fact he ticks every box really for a race like this. Oh, and he faces a load of ‘been there and done it horses’ in general, many of whom look out of form. He has been well found in the market as you would expect with that profile. Money has come for GoodtoKnow…needs the visor to work big time. He looks in awful form and hopes simply rest on that. 4s seems short enough now. Were he 8s/10s maybe you could roll the dice. If he is clearly enjoying himself early on then he could give the fav a headache.




Kerry Lee (12/1<) 

3.20 Here – Town Parks (m1) 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.20 Here – Town Parks (12/1<)

3.40 Here – GoodtoKnow (12/1<) 



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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 responses

  1. Josh/ian
    you guys are magic with the stats and watching Laurina
    win for Mullins made me think how good he is with Fillies and Mares

    Mare are thought to be at a disadvantage with Male but top class mares seem very consistent
    and run strongly to form

    have you any trainer stats on mares in graded non handicaps hurdles and chases
    a in open races
    b mares only

    1. Not off the top off the top of my head Peter sadly. I have a couple of angles for Anthony Honeyball in the members area. Given you like your stats research/thinking about such things, you really should consider getting horse race base account! You could research and dig all day long 🙂

  2. India did me a massive favour backed them when SA were over a hundred with 9 wickets
    remains but the wicket was one that could always see a glut of wickets
    Any cricket in running betters out there who back on the state of the wickets

  3. Hi Josh/Ian,
    Have you ever considered an open day at the races
    with both of you giving a open forum discussing racing etc

    I noticed on March 15th Towcester have a meeting that is on at the same time as Cheltenham
    Towcester is in the midlands so everyone in the country wouldn’t have to travel hundreds of miles to get there and the entrance at the track is free

    My idea would be that before racing yourself Ian and other interesting experts(could ask a few racing people to attend)
    before racing at Towcester give their views on the Thursdays and Fridays cards at Cheltenham
    and also the towcester card plus an hour of open questions on racing in general
    or another format that suits you better.

    with no entrance fees I am sure everyone would be happy to put in a fiver or tenner
    to cover expenses

    I would be happy to MC it and arrange an area at the track to put it on
    if you got 20-30 of your members to attend then it could be a great day

  4. Peter;

    I have to say that when it comes to Stats then Josh is the Roger Federer of the Horse Racing Stats world and I am more likely the over 50 Club player who needs embrocation and oxygen after every game.

    My methods are based purely around form reading and collateral form of the horses in a specific race.

    With regards to the Towcester idea, whilst I have done a lot of public speaking and absolutely love it, and have done a few “Corporate Tips” at Warwick in the past, it is an area where you would have to (a) get RaceCourse approval (b) Hire a suitable Room (c) get enough people involved and (d) fight off competition form the likes of the excellent David Crosse who skills are going far beyond race riding in to Corporate Hospitality and Tipping an also as a Jockey Coach.

    I think it is a great idea but may be not pragmatically possible and you do have Josh’s excellent video’s which I think are outstanding, plus he does not have a Brummie accent better than Tommy Shelby like me!

  5. I would get racecourse approval, hire the room etc
    I think there are enough members of Joshs site to get at least 30 people.

    don’t underestimate the interest that Joshs members have in what you two guys have to offer.

    If you want to do it run it to the members that you need x amount of people to go for it
    charge a nominal fee maybe £10 so people didn’t say yes and then not bother

    if the plan didn’t reach the minimum quota then the £10 was refunded
    Towcester is free entry so you save £20 straight away.

    if you and josh are in I will do the arrangements

    1. Hi Peter.
      The general idea is a good one and I have pondered such an event before and wouldn’t mind doing something like that one day. And certainly some type of ‘seminar’ day to chat through various things etc.

      Festival week is a no go sadly. It’s my most tiring/intense week of the year and that’s just sat behind my computer. There will comprehensive coverage on here as there was last year. But doing anything else that week isn’t possible.
      I want to dabble in the odd PDF/Video course maybe. And Ben Aitken and I have mused about doing something one day. And of course there is now the relationship with Ian/Sp2a. It’s tricky as I always feel like a need another year to prove myself and therefore have the confidence in having something valuable to say! Maybe I’ll attempt something over the summer.
      I’ve done the odd video ‘through the card video’ which is probably more useful than me standing in a room and chatting… but the q+a bit would be good. Webinars are always an option.

  6. Can I rain on this parade? I can think of a very good reason why Josh won’t be there and you’ve named it in your idea, i.e. Cheltenham week. He’ll be neck deep in his stats, figures and profiles and won’t want distractions from his ‘bunker mentality’ that particular week. Would that be the case Josh or have you two heads?

    1. Ha. Yes the bunker walls will be 10ft deep that week and I won’t be leaving my cave. Bar from some light refreshments. When the 10 handicaps + 3 other marathon races are all in focus on it is draining. But worth it. I’ve yet to have a bad Festival week (which includes the Midlands National…Goonyella saved said week that year, Chase the Spud helped take us to +63 points or so last year) and that’s simply graft. I’m like a pig in muck though given its the ultimate puzzle. I’ll have a bad year on day but won’t be for the want of trying.

      As per reply above to Peter I’ve had similar ideas myself. But yep Festival week is a no go.

    2. I would add my voice to the fact that Cheltenham week is about the worst possible time to do a meet up since every serious punter spends that week studying the cards for several hours a day.

  7. Get your point Josh but I think your week ness is you are underestimating yourself
    and you don’t have to prove yourself.

    I have been in racing 40 years and I believe in you
    and I think there are hundreds of members of your site who do as well

    Quite simply you and Ian are high class because as well as being top quality analysts
    you are honest and not all ego and bluster.

    so I put it to you if you put the idea out there to your members I think you be surprised
    how many people are into your ideas

    make no commitment but if your supports want it I think you should go for it
    there is nothing like this to expand your ideas

    if you say yes then I will organise it don’t wait to the summer
    as it is a thing that could be for ever put off

    no worries I can mc the whole thing so the focus isn’t on the speakers all the time
    I think what you have to say should reach a wider audience and your members believe in you and would very much like to meet you in person

    Could do before Cheltenham or between Cheltenham and Aintree
    that way Cheltenham could be reviewed and Aintree Previewed
    could also try to get a trainer of jockey to get involved so it has a professional

    Anyone who thinks Josh would be brilliant at this just put it down on the blog

  8. I have to agree about Cheltenham week and share Josh’s sentiments entirely, plus; I will be studying and collating whilst sat on a cliff top overlooking Torbay spending a week in the sea air to boost endurance.

    As a concept I do like it and if invited would be keen to consider as a long term opportunity, but would not wish to tread on anyone’s toes; if Josh has alternative collaborations with others. I have done it a couple of times in the past at Warwick, invited by a Company sponsoring a race, and it was great fun and tipping a 16/1 winner the one day in the first race was a great help.

  9. Towcester Thursday 29th March(grand national 14th April)
    Monday 21st May not much jump racing on could have a review of the jumping year
    and prospects for the coming season.

    Sorry to push this hard but I think you guys would be worth hearing
    all I say is put it to your supporters
    and if you got a decent positive you should go for it, web cams videos are great but they don’t beat
    face to face.

    I wont say any more on the subject but I just think you two would be a great draw
    but don’t want to pressurise you if you are not 100% into the idea

  10. Fantastic idea Peter and maybe best time to do would be “quiet” week in summer when not many 3m+chases to tax Josh’s grey matter!!!

  11. Need the “Opus Dei kit”! please whoever has it.

    Was very keen on Ballyheigue Boy but talked ourselves out of it purely due to past form on “heavy”. The horse obliged at 9/1 and the Going is a lot better than “heavy”. One the was all but hooked and got away; so aarrgghh annoying!

    1. Pass me that whip when you’re done with it Ian. I certainly should have taken a closer look after highlighting Gordon’s form when tipping up his winner on Saturday. We live and learn I guess.

  12. He is certainly one to follow.

    Another little angle popped up today that I should have spotted after Friday too – David Dennis and Sam T-D lovely winner on Friday and a nice 20/1 place today with a French import with some “soft ground” form. Doh!

  13. Josh,

    This account was cancelled last year but my wife tells me £37 has been taken via PayPal. Please can this be refunded as soon as possible.

    Many thanks
    Kenneth begbie

    1. Hi Kenneth, yep just received the email and I have just this very moment cancelled it and refunded, no problem.

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