Members Daily Post: 11/01/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Minella For Me – 2nd… I think Paddy B would have won on him here… he has tanked through this and he has allowed him to get tapped for toe, staying on again to the line.. when they turned for home he was bang there, he should have just kicked and tried to run them ragged. Instead he sat still, got passed, then asked him, taking a while to hit top gear… Paddy would have booted him to the front turning in. Maybe it’s the pocket talking! A Frustrating second as he could have won that 🙂 just worth a go at 5s I think given what on paper looks a race with an appalling lack of depth. First the horse… well he is unexposed and doing something different! This is his third chase start and second in a handicap. He moves up in trip by 1/2 a mile here and I was pondering whether that would make a difference. He is a 3m point winner so you would think so. He led for a long way the last day and maybe did too much up front. In any case, over 2m, he looked to lack a change of gears and couldn’t go with them. He clouted the last and the jockey just let him coast home, beaten further than he otherwise would have been. He had jumped very well up to that point and at least has experience of the course.  Interesting enough that they run him back here. There is a chance he still needed the run also. Tom George is now in better form than he was, 5/24,9p the last 14 days. In the last two years he is 8/31,17p, +13 with handicappers making their second start, that caught the eye, and not a bad little micro in itself. Finally… pace… he will race handily and there is every chance they try and dictate from the front here. Ground is an unknown but they ran him on it over hurdles and i’ll take a chance. He may improve for it. The trainer form/that ‘micro’ second start in a handicap/pace angle, has tipped me over the edge at the prices. I’ll roll the dice… i should add, Zigger Zagger looked interesting at 12s, and I did have some change on him also. Chasma looks solid, but worth taking on. He won’t be far away in the hat-trick bid.

Hit And Run – 3rd… no excuse there, maybe getting outpaced before staying on but I knew that was a risk pre-race…Will Kennedy rides the winner! Improving Mick Easterby’s 0/29,4p record with stable debutants in the last two years. He’s perked up a 10yo, good training.  again I have been lured in here…him and Nendrum are the only two unexposed/more to come horses in this to my eye and I think it could be between the two. (Forecast opportunities!..they never come in when I predict them explicitly pre race!) Hit And Run arrives here in form, having his 4th handicap hurdle start. He is the top rated horse in the race (which makes the class move of less concern) and gets a handy 5lb off his back. He is doing a couple of things different from that last run, dropping in trip and CP applied first time. Neither may be positives, but they could be reasons why he pulls out more. His form is ok..the horse he chased home two starts ago hacked up again, and the front two LTO were well clear of the rest. McCain remains in fine form, 6/25,12p last 14 days. What finally convinced me was that this drop in trip ‘could be’ a positive IF this turns into a test/slog. There are 3/4 horses who like to get on with it in here, inc the fav, and it isn’t impossible they do too much and fall into a hole. Hit And Run should just keep going and there is a long straight, with a stiffer climb than Sedgefield I think (I could be wrong but that goes down hill for a way, Catt more uphill to the line??). If he is thereabouts at the final couple of flights I can’t see something kicking on away from him and he could use his extra stamina to gallop past. I also want to take on Nendrum at 7/4.. now he could hack up again, but a) he could get pestered b) he does have to prove it in soft, in handicaps..i think he should be fine c)he has jumped out to the right when going left handed before,he won’t want to do that here d) the trainer has a mediocre record with LTO winners (5/35,15p last 2 years, AE + IV way down on what you’d expect…. so, while he may win well and hack up again, there are reasons to take him on and I wouldn’t lump on at 7/4. Hartside looks interesting as he will be thereabouts (not another tricast??) but he is long in the tooth..but if these two flounder he could pick up the pieces. Snowed In…well he is very inconsistent and struggles to put two good runs together, but if he goes like LTO he may be in there pitching. Maybe the top 3 comes from those 4, we shall see 🙂

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Of the rest..well at the prices I couldn’t muster much enthusiasm for anything else on this page..plenty have major ground concerns and an ability to stay in this ground…but maybe I’ve read a couple of those wrong, time will tell. I’ll live with it. About to stare at the 2.35 for the free post..i don’t think i’ll be tipping Golden Investment but will stare at him more intently…

Tom Lacey (any odds)

3.25 Leic – Sword Of Fate UP

TTP All-Weather

Apols for the delay, but the main jumps content always comes first 🙂

Newcastle

1.55 – Belle De Lawers (all hncps + 4yo+) ES I3 6/1 S3 UP

3.00- The Foozler (m1) 25/1 UP

Chelm

6.30 –

Amazing Grazing (all hncps) 14 H3 G3 7/1 S5 

Arnarson (m1) 14,30 H3 I1 G1  6/4 S1 S4 UP 6/4>3/1

7.30 – Too Many Shots (m1) ES 6/1 S3 UP

8.30 – Jazz Affair (m1) ES 7/1 S3

9.00 – Captain Scooby (all hncps) 14 I1 20/1  S6

PLEASE NOTE! … all questions are always welcome in these parts and following one exchange today can I just clarify, if it wasn’t clear… that ALL qualifiers listed in section 1 START FROM the trainers I have researched in my unique Trainer Track Profiles reports. If the horse does not qualify against those stats they will not appear in section one. It is only when I have that list of qualifiers that I compare against the ‘ratings pointers’ (horseracebase/geegeez/inform). That is where some of the advised strategies stem from. I am not going through every race, every card and plucking horses out of thin air to qualify against said strategy. They HAVE TO hit my trainer stats first and foremost.

My FREE TIPS… are nothing to do with the members’ posts. Remember any qualifiers on this page are invariably stats based. When I started blogging in 2013 I focused on 3m+ handicap chases as my race of choice. That was after reading Nick Mordin’s ‘Betting For A Living’. They are the only race type I ‘attack cold’ , making a subjective judgement, using my experience and all the tools available to me. Sometimes I ‘take on’ a stats qualifier found on this page. That’s irrelevant. If you follow the free tips you are best treating them separately from any other approach you may follow. They will always remain free (bar Cheltenham week, which I now paywall and offer no free content- you get that as part of your subs anyway, +62 points last year) as not to do so would be a bit shitty and take away from the general ethos of the place.

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TTP ALL-WEATHER: RESULTS UPDATE

Now brace yourselves… there is good news, and a lot of bad news…

Remember I am using the ‘Flat Advised Strategies’ for these…

The good news…as hoped…

• S1 (which is Double Top Rated) : 2/7,5p, -1 
  • Decent enough, esp the places, worth keeping close tabs on
• S4 (treble rated): 4/13,9p, +4
  • Ah, good old Strategy 4. It’s had a decent start on the sand, when everything else has been awful. Most have run very well and a few of those placed horses have been decent prices, 5/1-10/1. 

The ‘bad news’…well so far the other strategies are having an awful time… 

• S2 (3/19,7p, -8.8), S3 (3/45,8p, -32) S5 (1/7,4p, 0), S6 (0/18,2p,-18)

The upshot of all that is to focus on S4! 🙂 Clearly don’t dive in, and don’t start backing them yet systematically as they are small numbers…but as I have said before out of all the strategies, the most confidence should be had in S4. Based on evidence to date and because of the logic etc. 

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As always, THE KEY is your friend…if you have yet to flick through the Welcome Post link, please do. 

If anything is ever unclear, just post a comment or email me!

Josh