Free Daily Post: 11/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/9,4p, +15.5)

2.35 Catt –

Gonalston Cloud – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP 16/1

Itstimeforapint – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP 12/1

*Hmm, well no shock to see I Just Know make all , drifting out a point to 4/1. He relished that trip and jumps so well. If he stayed there was a chance he would do that but no complaints there. Happy to take him on with a couple of pokes…the market told the story with those two, showing very little. Poor. Surprised one of them didn’t place but that’s the game, not much damage done. Get that winner to Aintree! 

 

I think there are reasons to take on the top two in the market and it is just the sort of scenario I like – if/when one of them wins I will not be sat here cursing wondering why I didn’t back them. I also don’t want more than 2 points on this race and I fancy two, so the staking sorted itself out. I will not tip 1/2 point each way, not in my nature! 🙂 (I try and always get at least 1 point on the win side…an analysis of my tips in the first year indicated that approach won a lot more than 1/2 point EW betting..mainly as I land on enough monsters over time, but not enough placed horses)

Anyway… I Just Know may make all and win this well.. IF he stays. Which he may do. But I don’t like backing horses 6/1 or under in marathon chases that have stamina to prove. I find that hard to do. It is an unknown. He may relish every yard of it and he is one of the best jumpers of a fence you will see. I’d like to see him over the National fences one day, and if he is to ever compete in a race around there, he should be winning this. I’d prefer Cook to be on and I don’t know where he is…suspended or is he injured..no ride since 6th of Jan. So, there may be nothing in that booking. He is 3/1 and in a race like this that is too short for me. He will be a joy to watch on the front end though, and if you can’t watch this race and appreciate his jumping, you’re betting too much! 🙂

Sun Cloud..well he is long in the tooth now but does arrive here at the top of his game. That resurgence has been over hurdles though and I think he was sent back to timber due to running poorly enough over fences,maybe having lost his way. It is possible his mind just needed a change/freshening up. He has hacked up in this race before and is handicap mark is no issue. But again, at 4/1, I can live with him winning. That isn’t a price i’d like to take on a horse aged 10+ with a few miles on the clock. He should run his race and the top two may fight this out.

Gonalston Cloud…

Everything indicates that this has been the target…a run over an inadequate trip,in a novice hurdle, with headgear missing… that run must have been to get him spot on for this, having come a decent second in this last year. It is also of interest that A Tinkler has been booked as he is 2/3,3p on the horse and Adam Wedge is riding for his boss. He has the best recent staying chase form on offer in this. Any number of his placed efforts over marathon trips last season would be good enough to be bang there in this line up. I am miffed that he is such a big price, which may indicate all is not well. But on the evidence we have he was a must bet. Carrying a big weight is no problem, he has course form, he stays, and the ground is fine – his better efforts have been on a sounder surface but he has run well on soft, and the price was too tempting. Provided he can track the pace/settle/not get detached, he will be thereabouts, staying on dourly come the line. While he is 11 he is only 4/11 over fences under rules, so not exactly over-raced. Sun Cloud has had more than double that number of chase runs, as a comparison.

Itstimeforapint…

With any luck it will be as 2.45 draws near… again, 9s seems an insult here..no idea why he is 3 points bigger than Golden Investment really.. like Gonalston Cloud he ran in this race last year also, coming a gallant third on lively enough ground. He should prefer the soft here. This horse stays 4m no problem and is a dour stayer. He is tough, responds for pressure, and will keep plodding on. Now, 2 or 3 others may have kicked on away from him by then.. I can picture him pinging the last but not quite getting there, the line coming just in time for something! It could be agony. Given his run in this race last year, like Gonalston, i’d like to think this has been the target. He has run well in the Kelso National after a break and she can ready them if needs be. Again, the price lured me in. Russell is also in the best form she has been in for quite some time, 3/13,6p in the last 14 days. Solid.

I am more than comfortable with those two…

of the rest..well I have mentioned the top two in the market and if you like the price there isn’t much for me to say to put you off. Milborough is 12 now and has a poor record first time up. I’d like to think he will need this run. Not for me. Alto Des Mottes is just out of form to my eyes and needs to find something from somewhere. Nope…

And then we get on to three ‘could be anything’ types over a marathon trip. I will not fall off my seat if either of them win but I do not like backing horses this inexperienced in races like this. Billy Bronco and Point The Way just don’t have enough chase experience/form for me to be tempted at the prices. They have ‘sexy’ profiles but that isn’t the sort I want in these gruelling races. I want battle-hardened, generally speaking. I’d also want some winning chase form over 3miles, and neither has that as yet. So, we shall see. I can live with either of those winning.

Golden Investment has a bit more experience and is unexposed at this trip. I don’t think he will stay, esp in this ground, but I can’t be overly dogmatic about that. He has nothing on his back but does have a class question also, looking a C4 animal. I wasn’t convinced. Were he 8/1, 10/1+ I may have stared at him for longer. I’ll sleep just fine if he bolts up. He is a ‘S4’ qualifier in my Members post..that is my best ‘advised strategy’ and is arguably the bread and butter on that front. They have done well in recent months. He may add to it. I wasn’t convinced but I could be wrong. 6s didn’t feel overly generous.

PACE.. well I Just Know could get an easy lead here. Dangerous. When Gonalston won at Market Rasen they raced him much closer to the pace- I hope they do that here, sitting in 3rd/4th. Itstimeforapint can be up there also… hopefully they are both in the right place when I Just Know’s petrol runs out.

GL if you play.

Josh

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

None.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

7 Comments

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  • Yorkshire grand national
    235 Catterick

    11/12 Male

    10/12 no headgear ..2 cheekpieces 0/13 blinkers

    12/12 aged 7 to 11 (12 yo 0/13) neg for Millborough

    12/12 had finished at least 5th in one of last 3 outings …. (9/12 had a first or second) positive for Gonalston/Millborough/Sun cloud/Point/Golden

    12/12 least 4 chase runs and least 7 hcap chase runs …neg for Billy/Point

    12/12 LTO ran btwn 3m/4m ..neg for Gonalston/I just know/Alto/Point

    12/12 last ran 11-75 days… neg for Millborough/Itstime …8/12 26-45 days ..pos for Gonalston/Billy

    12/12 finished btwn 1st and 4th LTO neg for Gonalston/Millborough/Alto/Point/Itstime

    12/12 last ran in hcsp chase ..neg for Gonalston/I just know/Sun cloud.

    Failing on Just one Sun cloud is the pick as he’s won this race in 2014 of a pound lower.

    Also tomorrow

    1230 catt Crushed

    First start at course 1/1 A King

    Hutchison/King at course 3/6

    King 3/4 with hurdler at course past 2 years.

    robert Bland 9 months ago Reply


    • GL Robert, you nailed the winner last time you shared your trends and you may well have done again here. Sun Cloud just too short for me at 4s for various reasons, but I doubt he’ll be far away.
      Josh

      Josh 9 months ago Reply


  • Hello Josh – In your write up you refer to jockey Danny Cook (not riding I Just Know). I think he is serving a 4 day suspension for incorrect use of the whip at Wetherby on Boxing Day.

    Nigel 9 months ago Reply


    • Hi Nigel, thanks.. i thought it odd him not on this horse and assumed something was up given he hasn’t ridden since 6th. That would explain it!

      Josh 9 months ago Reply


  • Hard luck Josh not today but great analysis

    The 1.30 at Catterick saw a return of the number 1 small trainer
    in the Country Ken Slack.

    His stable love landing a gamble and his sister Diana Sayers
    often sends him horses who look way out of form only to be hammered in the betting market and winning easily

    He has been a bit quite of late but when he gets on a roll
    his is a man to really back

    if you have any info on him that you may think useful to me please advise
    as I will be following him blind over the next few months

    peter 9 months ago Reply


    • yep, I can live with those winners, happy to have left him on this morning’s price. I win a lot more over time taking on 3s shots like that.

      Slack..yep they are very shrewd, I have a few track angles for him in the members’ stats etc, a handful of places he seems to target. Will need new stock as well though, to ensure not just old rogues he has.
      i’d be careful about backing blind as the market has cottoned on more in last year, but we shall see.
      Josh

      Josh 9 months ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh
    Will heed your advice
    the 28/1 today sparked my interest as wasn’t backed but still ran well
    hint that the stable my be ready to burst into life

    peter 9 months ago Reply


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