Free Daily Post: 10/01/18 (complete)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/7,4p, +17.5)

3.00 Ludlow 

TB Broke Her – 1.5 points win – 7/2 (Lad/Coral) 10/3 (gen) WON 4/1 

Goohar – 1/2 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd 11/1 *

That went to plan. I’ll have to watch again but I think Grove Silver fell due to tiredness and don’t think it made a difference to the result, but I could be wrong.But as with yesterday it all evens out over time. All horses up ok which is the main thing. Anyone do the 46/1 forecast?? I didn’t sadly, never do! 

 

Urgh, Rolling Dylan was painful viewing yesterday. He was the right tip, the right price, and should have won. Sadly he idled/pulled himself up in the dying strides, losing by a nose. Awful scenes. Still, you can’t mope around in this game. More than happy with how I read that race and these things tend to even themselves out as the season progresses. I will win a race when a horse in front looks set to win but clatters a fence, and I will win the odd race by a nose. What a game. 

I’ve ‘tipped’ a shorty for me in the Members’ post today and I have done so again here. This day will go one of two ways no doubt! This record is long broken but as we all know i’m a crap judge at this end of the market and I really need to up my game if I can. In an attempt to drive up my win SR with the free tips I am going to try and make a better judgement of those near the top of the market. Usually i’d just be bullish and pig headed – ‘i want to take on any shorty in a 3m+ chase, let me at them!’ – that isn’t a bad approach to have and I have done well enough. However, clearly 33% or so of the time I am taking on decent favs who go on to win. And my ‘win only’ approach on a bigger priced outsider can leave me floundering. In this scenario I have three options – 1: i leave the race completely (fav looks too good, I can’t make a case for anything else, just leave it… i find that so hard to do with any C4+, 3m+ handicap chase, I just can’t!) 2. I back the ‘shorty’ (under 6/1!) provided i still think they are ‘value’ (overpriced against their chance,to my eyes), and maybe another- but make sure I am on. 3. I back my outsider Each-Way… fearing a shorter priced horse or two, I should try and protect myself and endeavour to get some return on my bet. I will work on those three points as the year progresses. I am happy with my profits and ROI, but a 10% win SR is a bit choppy at times, and i’d like to get that in the 15-20% region if I can. I won’t be abandoning my main principles, but there are always things to work on this game.

With that said…

TB Broke Her – barring a fall or bad luck I think she hacks up here. (i like to be confident with any bet, it’s the right mindset to have…but she isn’t a machine, and my ‘she will hack up’ mindset only equals 1.5 points- not the mortgage!) Having looked through all the runners I concluded she has the best chance by far and I was surprised to see her this ‘big’. She could easily be a 2/1 shot here. If she was guaranteed to complete and run her race, i’d give her a 50% chance of winning this, which means she should be Even money. That’s subjective. But it makes 7/2, 10/3 look appetising. There are no concerns with race conditions. She jumps, gallops, stays, will relish the ground, and she races prominently. She should track the pace and there will be no excuse, tactically. If she were a hold up stone last merchant, I may have just gone EW on Goohar, as you need more luck from the back, in the context of price. She is also unexposed and looks progressive. This is her third run for Matt Sheppard and he does well with LTO winners also.  She dotted up the last day and I think she will do so again here. She is a mare in form, and they are to be feared! Looking at my three ratings sets (HorseraceBase/Geegeez Speed- Dr Peter May/Inform Speed) which I use as a guide… well she is miles clear top rated in HRB, clear top in Inform with some other good pointers in their racecard, and second rated in Geegeez. Visually and on ‘the numbers’ she looks very good, against this bunch. She looks to have plenty in hand still. My bullishness also stems from an assessment of the oppo,which i’ll get onto in a moment.

Goohar… worth a smaller dabble at 8/1 given the race is named after his trainer and this must have been the target. Of course that wasn’t enough to have a bet although it could well be for many. Plenty of logic there! This horse is unexposed over this distance and as he has got older it could be what he wants. This is one of the easier 3 miles also. It’s no Exeter for stiffness. This is his 3rd run of the season and with any luck he is spot on here. Henry Daly is in superb form. He also can track the pace/race mid div, and if TB fluffs her lines will hopefully pick up the pieces. Albeit if either wins it will be the same profit on the race. (hmm…not it wont, +4.75 points plays +2.5, good maths!) His run at Cheltenham over this trip indicated he stays it now and he looked the most interesting of the others.

Of the rest…

Well in general I don’t really like wading into 3m+ handicap chasers that look woefully out of form/out of sorts…and quite frankly most of the others don’t look in great nick at the moment. I was struggling to work out why any of them would suddenly bounce back to life. If the fav doesn’t run her race then it does suddenly become very open, and something has to win it. As well as being out of form, a few in here don’t look to like soft or stay this trip in it. Bendomingo and Brandon rock are just too inexperienced for me over fences, esp the former, and the latter was poor LTO.

Of the bigger ones that look most interesting I suppose Nansaroy should be given a mention… a decent chance, esp on a run here last season where he came second. But 11/2, 6/1 didn’t seem overly generous in the context of his last run- it was over 19f, (has won over 20) and his second start of the season, but even so, it was just a bit too poor. And he is now 0/8 over fences. In that price range I don’t really like horses that were going backwards when last seen. I won’t fall off my seat if he wins but I don’t like the price against how I perceive his chance. Gorsky Island is worth a mention as the trainer has farmed handicap chases here in recent seasons and the horse is a CD winner. He hasn’t won since 2014 and has been very lightly raced. He looks regressive to my eyes. He is 10, ran an awful race LTO (has won fresh before) beaten a long long way from home, and I think he may prefer a sounder surface. Given his profile i wanted at least 10s, if not 12s, before considering him. I may have that wrong, but I think i’ll live with it at 8s, if he wins. I was struggling to see why he would bounce back enough to take this. It would be quite the turnaround. While George is now in better form, he wasn’t wildly out of form when this one last ran, so that’s not an excuse (unlike with Rolling Dylan yesterday).

This is about TB Broke Her I think. If she runs her race and builds on LTO I think she should win this. She has more improvement to come and I doubted any other horse really running up to their marks in this. I thought she looked over-priced and I didn’t really think that about many others, bar the Daly horse who could be a tad shorter. If she fails then it does become open. Hopefully Goohar picks up the pieces, but Nansaroy or somehow Gorsky, may not be far away! And if I haven’t mentioned the winner then so be it.

*

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.00 Lud – Kilmurvy (9/1< guide)

*

That’s the lot for today.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

10 Comments

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  • Hi, despite such a strong profile the horse TB Broke Her is drifting in the early morning betting out to 4/1. any idea why this would be Josh?

    Paul Cockerill 6 months ago Reply


    • Hi Paul, nope. Unless some dodgy signals from home – not worked well on last piece of work, got out of bed the wrong side! near enough 28% of all bets via oddschecker have been on her. She isn’t weak, more steady. Could be down to support for others. But never let a drift put you off. Two winners posted by members in comments yesterday went 11/1>25/1 (4o BFSP), 8/1>11/1… both won. Often the market knows sod all. I’d be concerned if going 4s, 9/2, 5s across the board. Nothing else is being backed in terms of odds movement, everything steady enough.

      Many a traditional ratings/handicap punter will look at the numbers and wonder how a 98 horse beats a 120 horse. 🙂 I approach the game slightly differently, and in any case the ratings pointers have tipped me over the edge- on the numbers>recent form she is the one to beat. A lot of my theory is based on many of those not running up to their marks. Clearly if one of the 120 horses runs to his rating, i’m in trouble!

      Josh 6 months ago Reply


  • Nice Josh and a good forecast well done
    Kevin

    kevhol123 6 months ago Reply


  • Perfect punting Josh, forcast too!!

    Chris 6 months ago Reply


  • FC landed Josh, well done
    Out of interest why wouldnt TB have been a G1, I1, H2 or whatever please

    Paul 6 months ago Reply


    • Hi Paul…

      Did you back the 46/1 forecast?? Sadly I didn’t haha.

      Remember… ALL advised strategies are JUST based on my stats qualifiers, in members post, in Section 1. Those stats qualifiers come from my own trainer stats reports. That is the starting point. A horse has to hit those trainer track stats in order to appear in section 1. I then cross reference them with my ratings sets.

      My free tips focus on 3m+ handicap chases, which is what i started blogging on back in late 2013, and that’s is why they are here, and will not change. Nothing to do with members.

      HAD TB Broker qualified against my trainer stats for Ludlow (I have nothing for Matt Sheppard at Ludlow) then she would have had a H1 I1 G3 next to her name and been treble rated/S4.

      Does that make sense? I don’t go through every runner each day in every race with the ratings sets.

      Josh

      Josh 6 months ago Reply


      • Forecast and tricast with the S2A tips. Thanks Josh and Ian!

        Neil 6 months ago Reply


        • ah, I assumed some may have had a nibble at the tricast! Probably lucky to get the third but you make your own luck and all evens out. One day i’ll get good at playing these exotic bets!! Good return all round today given their EW advice etc.

          Josh 6 months ago Reply


      • Learnt something new there Josh, thank you.

        PAUL 6 months ago Reply


  • Another good winner Josh, well done.

    Nigel 6 months ago Reply


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