Members Daily Post: 10/01/18 (complete)

NOTES, Section 1, test zone, Weekly Article

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers



3.00 – Gorsky Island (hncp chase) 14  ES+ 7/1 S3A 3rd 15/2 

3.35 – Fille Des Champs (m2) H3 I1 G3 9/2 S4  2nd 9/2 


Ayr– Cancelled




H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 1/3,3p, +6)  (1 point win bets)



3.35 Ludlow – Fille Des Champs – 9/2 (Bet365/WH/BV/Betway) 4s (gen) 2nd 9/2*

Ah, no excuse there, she has just bumped into one. Exciting enough all the way until just after the last. I lived in hope that the eventual winner was running too keen but she had plenty in tank/in hand. Not to be. 


As well all know I am a tortured soul when it comes to horses in the 7/2-11/2 range. As yet I haven’t shown an ability to regularly spot an over-priced horse at that end of the market. It is something I want to get better at and I will. Chris W, of Geegeez Stat of The Day fame, who’ll be reading this no doubt, sets the benchmark for finding value in that price range, and a tad shorter, as his consistency over time demonstrates. So, a benchmark for me to aim at. I won’t tip at this end that often as my strengths do lie in a more cavalier attitude towards those priced 6/1, 8/1, 10/1+, but there is gold at this end, you just have to be very picky I think, and of course you have to be right a lot more to make it pay.

Clearly I’ve now put the mockers on Fille Des Champs but to my eyes she could well demolish this lot and i think she should be fav, 5/2 – 3/1. This is a poor race and her profile looked interesting. Firstly while not as unexposed as some, she is still lightly raced. This is her 8th handicap hurdle start and only her 3rd in C4 (1/3,2p). This is her third run of the season and she could be cherry ripe- her only career win so far came on her third run of the season last year. She drops in trip here by about 3f. I’m not sure if that will suit but I don’t think it will suit the other fancied horses in this either. It is a big field and it could be testing enough here. I hope Mitch is aggressive on her. She is a mud lark who stays, which can’t be said for many in here. What really caught the eye was the drop in class. Ok C3>C4 may not be eye popping but when you take a closer look at her last two starts, this is really quite the drop. You get some indication of that given this season she has carried 10-6 and 10-1. Today she carries 11-7, an indication that she is one of the better horses in a race for the first time this season. Two starts ago she raced from 5lb out the handicap with the top horse rated OR120 and it was her first start of the season. On her last start, 7 days ago, she was 7lb out of the handicap with the top weight carrying 130! She is rated 105. In that context she ran a decent race. She got outpaced a tad – no surprise given she was up against better horses, but was running on through the line. She looks a mare in form. While she shapes like a stayer her one win to date was over 20f and as I said this could be testing enough. Williams is in ok form (Buywise!) and he is 5/23,8p with horses returning within 7 days with all runners in the last two years. Mitch takes over again and claims 5lb. The three horses around her in the market are moderate enough and i wouldn’t want to touch them at the prices, Skelton’s looking most interesting maybe. None of the bigger priced horses look up to much. This is a poor bunch. She should be winning this. On my judgement she shouldn’t be 9/2. I won’t be beating myself up if she doesn’t take this given the case made. I can live with it. She is also an S4. I have backed her with my S4 bank and my Notes bank – a sign of confidence or foolishness. I’ll find out soon 🙂


Ah, that was so close to a perfect punting day. Rolling Dylan was the best losing bet you can place really -the right horse, the right price, he should have won. As simple as that. Sadly something caught his eye I think and he pulled himself up. Credit to STD on the second. That was a decent ride to pick up the pieces, but he should have been beaten by 2l. Not to be. 15 minutes later it was of to Doncaster for a couple of pokes at 20/1 and 14/1… they were both ‘magic formula’ horses (read that article HERE>>>) … young, unexposed, doing a few things different and their form/recent runs ‘stories’ made sense. And they were a tasty price. Sadly they both found one too good but at least Nick tipped it and hopefully you had a go. The 1-2-3 in the most competitive handicap of the day, not bad from team RTP. That bugger Gavin Sheehan again. He’s good. In fairness Lavelle’s mare has done that well in the end (and she was very green still,plenty more to come), the front three well clear of the rest. That form could work out well. Henderson will plunder a decent pot with his, no doubt about that. She travels so smoothly through her races. She was keen again here for the most part and I was surprised she had anything left at the end but she kept battling. They dawdled a bit here and maybe when she gets a cavalry charge she will be seen to her best. Soft wasn’t a problem. Jonjo’s looks like she may come alive over 3 miles. Trackers at the ready!

Elsewhere there were winners galore in the comments. Ken’s secret sand formula (i’m convinced he’ll share it one day!! cough cough 🙂 ) banged in two more nice winners,(10s+7s) and Gerry chipped in with a 40/1 BFSP poke at Southwell, 25/1 SP, drifting from 11s (what does the market know?!) utilising his own knowledge of Burke+jockey at the track, + some of my old research on Ben Curtis/Southwell/Class 2+3+4/7f. Easy game sometimes. I didn’t have a penny on him sadly, moor fool me! Well done all. On we go.



3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Lingfield – None


5.45 –

Kaths Legacy (4yo+, +m1) I3 14/1

Mullarkey (m1) ES H1 7/1  S3 S6 

7.15 –

Time To Blossom (all hncps) 30  4/1 

Langlauf (4yo+) I1 20/1 S6



Tom Lacey (any odds)

12.50 Lud- Sir Egbert 16/1 3rd 16/1>5/1*

*notebooks at the ready again. This one qualifies for handicaps now and ran on nicely into 3rd here…given his breeding/trainer MO, I won’t be shocked if this one steps up to 2m4f on handicap debut. He is still a bit keen for his own liking so we may want a price/EW wager… maybe he needs a stronger pace or will get better with experience. Or, maybe he now has a mark, the trainer will work harder at home on teaching him to drop his head!! 



4.Any general messages/updates etc



The Week That Was: Weekly ArticleREAD HERE>>>

Three pages packed with three horses to follow, a look at Henry Brooke, Sandy Thompson, and a re-cap on Buywise. I hope you enjoy the read. As yet I haven’t worked out which of the stats I plan to follow in the test zone. The Henry Brooke ‘tracks’ I may do. But if you have a HRB account do save what you wish, and by all means post up any runners as and when! 🙂


Something Old, from yesterday… in case you missed it somehow…

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated to end 7th Jan 

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies 1st Jan 2018 – 7th Jan


Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 1/43,11p, -41.2 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/24, -21.2 
  • S1 (0/3,2p,-3) S2 (0/15,3p, -15) S3 (0/7,1p,-7) S3A (1/8,1p, -6.2) S4 (0/5,2p, -5) S5 (0/5,2p, -5)


NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  1/1, +8  (not much jumped out at me this week, but pleased to land on one of the few decent priced winners in section 1)

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/14,5p, +11



I have tidied up the advised strategies link/results in the Key. You can read this HERE>>>

  • Firstly there are just the results, inc the totals for 2017.
  • Then there are two appendices: A) Some notes on the strategies including the ‘rules’ and any other thoughts. These also include links to the video explaining how to place a bet on Betfair SP at 11.00+ (which is also in the Welcome Info link post in The Key) B) – a running update of the Test Zone jumps angles (i’ll add TTP AW in due course) and other ideas/angles including info on ‘Double Top Rated’ qualifiers.
  • Strategy 2: I’ll be keeping a running total on the results to betting 16/1-25/1 shots Each Way + win only.
  • Strategy 3, Elite Squad: This is really concerning me now, to the point that I am no longer comfortable advising you to follow it systematically. I can only apologise for prematurely taking that out of the ‘test/monitoring’ pile. It’s early success, where it hit around +60 points, appears to have gone to my head. Sadly there is every chance it is a crap approach. It has still maintained a 30% or so win/place SR and given it has no odds caps it may well have just been on an excruciating unlucky run that will turn around soon. But it’s on the naughty step. I have the most confidence in those strategies that are based on ratings pointers, (a red symbol-  S1,S4,S4, double top rated) as they are a constant and take account of the form/ability of the horse. Provided their methodology doesn’t change the expectation is that over time, results should just keep repeating. Strategy 2 has no ratings pointers but has a much bigger stats pool on which to make an assessment. My job is to constantly try and get the best out of the section 1 qualifiers, and in S3 I think I may have let you down on the evidence to date. It started so well! Time will tell, but it would be wrong of me not to face those current demons head on.


2017… looking at results over the year makes for decent enough reading. All strategies combined,inc multiple qualifiers, +430 points. If you ignored S2 and focused on the rest, +160 points.     S1 + S4 + S5, +170 points.  Now, i’d bite your hand off now for those three hitting +200 points in 2018. That would be some fun and decent profit to small stakes.

The back end to 2017, and start to 2018, has been awful on every front in Section 1, there is no hiding place from that. It has been testing. In an ideal world all the profit made in 2017 across various approaches would be spread out evenly month to month. Sadly that is never the case. It should turn around and those of us with the long game lenses fixed on, will do just fine.

Strategy 4  – this gives me most excitement and optimism moving forwards and does look like ‘THE’ strategy to follow – the foundation on which to build everything else. Across the Flat turf + Jumps it is now: 205 bets / 67 wins / 113 places (inc wins) / +72.5 points / 33% win SR / 55% win|p / 35% ROI . IF it can keep repeating those figures through 2018 then we will have much to cheer. Given the unique nature of the approach and the soundness in logic, it should. We have three ratings sets which are a constant, and are all very different- a non speed based set (horseracebase) and two speed ratings in Geegeez (uses AI/complex/not based on ‘standard times’) and Inform (more based on standard times I think). When you add those to my trainer stats qualifiers, it is a powerful pointer. Well, it has been so far. I suppose in another 205 bets we will know even more 🙂 If you are to follow just one system/strategy on here, the evidence + confidence in it’s future, would point to that one. Dear Lord I hope I haven’t just put the mockers on it.

TIPS‘ – or what I call my ‘notes’ horses (thinking of them as ‘tips’ seems to inhibit me psychologically!) are doing ok and I will try and repeat the results of the last 4 months or so. In truth if they could add +100 points per year to the pot I would be delighted. That’s a decent target to aim for and hopefully surpass.  I have much to improve on, esp over jumps, but it won’t be for the want of trying. I surprised myself with success on the Flat, so there is always that to look forward to! The last 4 months have proved beyond doubt, in my own mind, that the trainer research on these pages is a very good starting point for homing in on decent priced/value winners. And as I have always said, if I can’t make my own content pay over time, then I will never succeed at this game, as I don’t really have an excuse.


Fingers crossed for an enjoyable 2018. The aim has always been to create an engaged community with fun, interest, and profit at it’s heart, for the recreational/small stakes punter first and foremost.I hope that as we progress through the year you find an approach to the content that satisfies you and that you enjoy reading/watching my ramblings and those found in the comments. I think it all adds together to make something quite unique in our little racing world, but then I am biased 🙂 Hard graft is the only way to succeed in this game and ensure we stay in the 1-3% of racing punters that win long term. On we go. 


I’d like to think Gerry has the right idea/viewpoint… aiming for +100 points from my content during 2018 (however he approaches that) in addition to +100 points from his own picks/selections/methods. That’s a solid minimum target to aim at. Let’s see how we get on.



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 responses

  1. Well that was a right good love-in this afternoon with Gerry leading the way with a 16/1 shot, Nick with an 8/1 pick and a couple from me at 10/1 & 7/1 adv/BOG. Hopefully, Josh can join in tomorrow lol 🙂 (you were a bit unlucky there!)

    AW racing at Lingfield and Kempton. Qualifiers as follows:
    1.45 Los Camachos 10/1
    2.50 Pattie 7/1

    4.45 Holy Shambles 6/1
    5.15 Briscola 4/1
    5.45 Becca Campbell 8/1 & Ice Canyon 14/1
    6.45 Fairway to Heaven 7/1 & Bridge Builder 8/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    1. Ken
      Thanks for the first winner today for that was the first bet i have had since you have been putting your bets up.
      If my figures are correct up to the end of play yesterday
      SP profit plus 21 points which is fantastic,any system that can win at SP is worth its weight in gold,if a successful system or method is winning consistently the punter will only have a short spell of BOG before restrictions are applied or closed down as from experience.

      1. Shout out to Ken, first two selections go in, 10/1 last night’s price and 5/1! I owe you a large drink Ken.

      2. Hi Colin. I stopped recording SP after the first week as it was clearly inferior to early/BOG. You’re absolutely right about BOG restrictions and I’ve already had mine removed in a few places. But there’s always the exchanges. I’m going to do a comparison against BFSP to see if that works out as good or better. The main problem with the exchanges is that the market doesn’t really come on properly until morning but if you go BFSP I dont suppose that matters.

    2. Canna get better than that ken. Did two singles,did think about a wee double on your first two. But sadly didn,t do it. Bigger fool me. Well done ken. Whatever yer doin keep doin it. Top stuff.

    3. Seriously Ken, have you mastered time travel or something? Are crystal balls real? Tea leaves maybe? A very happy and confuddled Chris.

      1. Thanks folks. I just follow the numbers. Had a good run so without seeming like the profit of doom it probably means there’s likely to be a dip coming up but enjoy it while you can

  2. Just noticed your post above Josh. Haha, nice try but my secret is staying locked away. Only one other person knows the secret. Unless you’d like to make me an offer I can’t refuse? I’m looking to retire this year and a little sweetner might hasten it along lol 🙂

  3. Gorsky Island Ludlow Wednesday 15:00 1pt e/w-Nice winner today and couldn’t believe the drift although I suppose it did look a hot race I am certain to track given I suspect the front half dozen or so are good enough to win a class 4 if not better. One for me tomorrow who I thought was fairly solid. The horse loves it here with 2 wins and 4 places for 4 handicap chase starts, both wins coming over a similar distance on winter good/soft ground which he should get tomorrow. He would have needed his first run back (only time he has won fresh he was very well treated) but he was 2nd in a class 3 on his last run in the spring and is relatively unexposed for a 10yr old given this is his only 11th chase start. He runs effectively 7lbs below his last winning mark (and 15lb below his close 2nd in a class 3). George is back in form and has a great record here. Gethings is certainly well worth his 3lbs and has a solid 3/15, 6p record in handicap chases for the trainer. 10s looked fair I thought. I have had a £5 ew saver on the Bendomingo given he fits the Twister massive step up in distance angle someone put up last year and is clearly unexposed.

    1. Fantastic result for Bristol City
      However you had a couple of bad results prior to this game and i feel that players take their eye off their main priority the league and promotion will be interesting to see how they perform in your next league game will they go into the 50/50 tackle or pull out not wanting to risk injury and miss the Man City game.
      This probably cost Sheffield United promotion a couple of years ago when they played Spurs in a two legged semi final their league form went out the window prior to the Spurs game.
      Pleased Derby were knocked out in the 3rd round no injuries or suspensions and the dads army can concentrate on promotion hopefully.
      All the best Chris hope you get to the final

  4. still suffering from this bloody flu, anyway a silly 20p ew L15 for fun
    Lucky 15

    Old Salt, 13.55 Ludlow

    Windshear, 14.25 Ludlow

    Bendomingo, 15.00 Ludlow

    Westerbee, 15.35 Ludlow

  5. My first day in the Members Area after signing up last night. Looking forward to following all the words of wisdom.

    Interesting pick in the ‘Notes’ section – Fille Des Champs. I was drawn to that one before reading Josh’s post so I hope I haven’t put the mockers on it. Had a small interest with Ladbrokes at 19/4 with an odds boost.

    Probably going to spend a few days just looking and learning and taking this all in before progressing further.

    1. Hi Nigel,
      Thanks for giving it a go… there are many many words on these posts/in comments, some of them wise! 🙂

      Yep do please take your time. The reason for the long trial periods etc is because what i do here is very different and can take some time to get used to… or more to the point take you time to settle on how best you wish to attack the content. There is a lot but I prefer what I call a ‘menu of options’ that you can pick and choose from.

      There is a mix of my ‘tips’ (section 2) and the stats based qualifiers in Section 1 + the Test zone (section 3)..all there to use how you please. There are some advised strategies and with any luck ‘S4’ becomes the foundation on which you can build. If you want to follow just one system/strategy, i’d start there.

      Do read the welcome email/post, of which there is a link in the Key, or below…

      And today’s update above at the bottom of the post, which was a recap from recent weeks. All the info you need should be in ‘the Key’, that is your friend.

      if you like following systems / tips / have your own views / pick your own bets / read the views of others etc, then with any luck you’ll enjoy your time here. But that’s why you have 7 weeks. Oh, and there is usually plenty of gold in the comments.


  6. “…Chris W, of Geegeez Stat of The Day fame, who’ll be reading this no doubt, sets the benchmark for finding value in that price range, and a tad shorter, as his consistency over time demonstrates…”

    I am, of course reading (I always do!). very kind words indeed, thanks.

    Dead quickly, for those who don’t know what I do, I find stat-based selections around the 7/2 price mark that I feel (a) will win and (b) still offer some juice in the price. That said, my pick yesterday was advised at 7/1 and didn’t shorten. It did win, though.

    If you’ve not given Geegeez a whirl before, Josh can sort you out with a link for a reduced price trial.

    1. Ever the salesman haha… a link in the ‘advised racing services’ box top right if on desktop…i have banged the £1 trial a few times before, not for a few weeks though. They are the best racing tools around if you have time to use them etc, or just follow your tips! 🙂

      …and yep I see you like TB Broke Her in the 3pm – so she is well and truly buggered, apols to you and your followers!

      I don’t posses that skill yet at that end of the market, you have to know where your weaknesses are, and that is one of them. Although there is a school of thought that you should only ever work on your strengths and make them even stronger! Your 20-25% or so ROI over what, 6 years??, stands the test of time.

      GL today,

      1. Yeah, 25% ROI over 6 and a bit years at a SR of around 2 in 7.

        But, the other side of the coin is your ability to find double digit odds winners in marathons on mud!

  7. PS I liked Fille des Champs from a statistical viewpoint too. Sire’s offspring have reasonable record in soft/heavy conditions and the yard does well with ‘cappers having a 3rd run inside 2 months, who also ran in the last week.

  8. Hi Colin,

    Happy New Year to Josh, yourself and everyone else on the site. The site continues to develop and grow and still retains that incredibly positive atmosphere.

    On the golf – are you not interested in Webb Simpson this week? A bit of go-to for you and this looks like a good opportunity for him this week.


    1. Hi Ben, very kind, Happy New Year to you too.

      Colin’s golf tips… i’m sure he’ll engage in a convo about Webb Simpson.. but for Info, IF Colin has any Golf tips he posts them in the comments on the free post, on the Tuesday. Has always done that since he started posting.

      Yesterday’s comment below for convenience,


      Marc Leishman 1 point ew 1/5 7 16/1 CO PP BFSB
      He excell’s in windy conditions and he must be disappointed in last weeks 7th after sharing the lead after round 3

      Kevin Kisner 1 point ew 1/5 7 25/1 CO PP BFSB
      Kevin is another who enjoys the windy conditions of this course having two top 5 finishes in the last 2 years

      Warning having made a profit over the past 3 years which have all been proved by Optimum Sports and from September last year by this site thank you Josh there will be long losing runs so please have a suitable betting bank if you decide to follow my bets.

        1. No worries, there is no right or wrong section, but saves Colin commenting again in here . He is a member so may see post.

    2. Hi Ben
      Happy New Year to you
      Webb Simpson took a look at him but i feel that he as gone backwards over the past couple of years,was he one of the players who used to play with the long putter must be getting old but i feel that he did maybe he as not adapted to the short putter so well whatever the reason he for me is not reaching his potential.
      No doubt will have egg on my face as he romps home!!!

  9. Another team RTP tricast there. I should start putting these on. Well done Josh. I suppose you were owed that one after yesterday.

  10. Unreal tipping Josh/Nick. did the single tricast yesterday but not the combination and got it wrong! Wasn’t going to make the same mistake today and had £5 on the tricast plus the combination to cover it, can’t thank you guys enough! Also worth pointing out that since following SP2A last October they’ve popped up with a few big priced forecasts… hope I haven’t jinxed it!

    1. Blimey Darren, well if you had landed on the combo in the hurdle race that would have been dreamland! We can’t be greedy I suppose, I hope you are over missing that haha. Pleased to read you made up for it today. £5 on the 318/1 tricast?? + combos?? my word. Well, that sounds like a fun afternoon. Now, go and book a holiday 🙂
      Yep I have heard stories of a few SP2A/RTP readers who have combined the odd free tip/notes horse and made a wheelbarrow full to sensible stakes.

      As yet my brain isn’t conditioned to such betting opportunities but i’ll add that to the list of things to improve on! I suppose when I fancy two, Nick has views, + SP2A and we landed on just 3 horses between us, it was staring me in the face. Glad you had a go.

    1. Yep, I suppose you should have added confidence in that we all have a rather different approach to such analysis, so gives more weight maybe. And I personally try my best not to be influenced by others before I tip something, so will try not to read any comments from Nick, and don’t open my SP2A email until after 10ish. So, you can have confidence that they have been landed on independently, again, which may or may not boost interest in such bets!

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