(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 1/4,1p, +13)
Rolling Dylan – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 2nd nose
Ah, bugger. He has tanked through that, looked the winner after the last, has hit the front and has pulled himself up/idled. Not much you can do about that but you’d always want a price with him. Didn’t realise he had that in his locker but would have played at odds anyway. Broadway Buffalo has a race in him. Frustrating.
Rolling Dylan seemed to be the only one of the live contenders to my eyes that was arguably a shade overpriced, with everything else feeling about right. The ground is officially soft here today and that poses a question for many in here. Some have proved they can’t handle it, but may get away with it. Others it is more of an unknown and they may be just fine. The ground should be no concern for Rolling Dylan and won’t be an excuse i’ll be reaching for if he fluffs his lines. He is unexposed as a chaser yet has a win on the board already and at some point there will be more to come over fences. That Worcester win was decent enough with the front two miles clear of the rest. The way he stayed on there, and given some of his hurdles form, suggests that this trip should unlock more. Over hurdles he stayed 3m but he has it to prove over fences. It is a reason for why he could improve further. So he knows how to win over fences, looks like he will stay/relish the trip, and should handle the ground. I don’t think there is another horse I can say that about in here. The horse goes back into a handicap here and drops in class. He also moved back up in distance. Nolan takes over again and he knows him best/has the best record on him. (Dickie 0/8) So, that isn’t a negative. RH is a question over fences, but an unknown. 7s seemed fair.
Now, to the elephant in the room… Pulled Up LTO. Oh no! When seeing the P I always head to HRB and have a look at the trainer’s record with such types. So, Hobbs > PU LTO > Handicap Chase…in last 5 years or so those sent off 8/1 or shorter SP: 11/38,15p, +21. Decent. All odds…returning 31-45 days, 4/11,5p. Dropping in class by one, 3/12,5p. Ran in a novice race LTO, 4/10,4p. Safe to say on that score there is no reason to be put off by the PU LTO, indeed it may even lead to more confidence! I will have to trust the trainer that there wasn’t a major problem. Returning within 40 days would suggest as much. Hobbs is also in much better form than he was when RD last ran and that may be the valid excuse as it was a shocker. His yard has had a torrid last couple of months but in recent days there has been a revival. 4/19,7p in the last 14 days. In the 16 days prior to that, 0/16,6p. I suspect he’s had a bug or something but whatever it is hopefully he keeps his current form going. If this horse can get back to near his best, and progress further in these conditions, he should be thereabouts. I thought 7s may be a couple points too big, and he probably would be 11/2, 5/1, if that was a 2 or 3 next to his name rather than a P, or indeed if he came here on the back of that Worcester run.
Of the rest…well I won’t labour through them all. Relentless Dreamer has a very good chance of following up in this. If this is soft/hard work he does have that to prove and on that basis 4s may be short enough. If he handles it he goes very close. According To Harry – he was an interesting outsider. He is lightly enough raced over fences, probably needed his last run, and will race prominently here- there is a chance he tries to make all, or in any case be in the right spot to take over from Sherwood’s when/if he starts to fade. Again the ground is a question with him but more of an unknown, so 10s/12s may be ok. I struggled to muster much enthusiasm for the rest, at the prices, but it does feel open enough.
Pam Sly (any odds)
2.35 Donc – All My Love
Trainer/jockey combo – Live Test
2.35 Donc – Oscar Rose (12/1< guide)
2.45 Taunt – Holdbacktheriver (12/1< guide)
Last Chance for your 3 month trial
This special offer to join SP2A for 3 months at a discounted rated + money back guarantee, expires today.
With any luck they may win another +350 points in the next 3 months to 1 point EW bets. That may well be dreaming but they have never had a losing 3 month block in seven years.
Be quick as there are only a handful of places left. And, due to my own plans later in the year, there will not be another trial offer like this until the summer, late July at the earliest.
So, don’t miss out 🙂