Free Daily Post: 09/01/17 (TIP/comp)

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 1/4,1p, +13)

2.10 Taunton

Rolling Dylan – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 2nd nose 

Ah, bugger. He has tanked through that, looked the winner after the last, has hit the front and has pulled himself up/idled. Not much you can do about that but you’d always want a price with him. Didn’t realise he had that in his locker but would have played at odds anyway. Broadway Buffalo has a race in him. Frustrating. 

 

Rolling Dylan seemed to be the only one of the live contenders to my eyes that was arguably a shade overpriced, with everything else feeling about right. The ground is officially soft here today and that poses a question for many in here. Some have proved they can’t handle it, but may get away with it. Others it is more of an unknown and they may be just fine. The ground should be no concern for Rolling Dylan and won’t be an excuse i’ll be reaching for if he fluffs his lines. He is unexposed as a chaser yet has a win on the board already and at some point there will be more to come over fences. That Worcester win was decent enough with the front two miles clear of the rest. The way he stayed on there, and given some of his hurdles form, suggests that this trip should unlock more. Over hurdles he stayed 3m but he has it to prove over fences. It is a reason for why he could improve further. So he knows how to win over fences, looks like he will stay/relish the trip, and should handle the ground. I don’t think there is another horse I can say that about in here. The horse goes back into a handicap here and drops in class. He also moved back up in distance. Nolan takes over again and he knows him best/has the best record on him. (Dickie 0/8) So, that isn’t a negative. RH is a question over fences, but an unknown. 7s seemed fair.

Now, to the elephant in the room… Pulled Up LTO. Oh no! When seeing the P I always head to HRB and have a look at the trainer’s record with such types. So, Hobbs > PU LTO > Handicap Chase…in last 5 years or so those sent off 8/1 or shorter SP: 11/38,15p, +21. Decent.  All odds…returning 31-45 days, 4/11,5p. Dropping in class by one, 3/12,5p. Ran in a novice race LTO, 4/10,4p. Safe to say on that score there is no reason to be put off by the PU LTO, indeed it may even lead to more confidence! I will have to trust the trainer that there wasn’t a major problem. Returning within 40 days would suggest as much. Hobbs is also in much better form than he was when RD last ran and that may be the valid excuse as it was a shocker. His yard has had a torrid last couple of months but in recent days there has been a revival. 4/19,7p in the last 14 days. In the 16 days prior to that, 0/16,6p. I suspect he’s had a bug or something but whatever it is hopefully he keeps his current form going. If this horse can get back to near his best, and progress further in these conditions, he should be thereabouts. I thought 7s may be a couple points too big, and he probably would be 11/2, 5/1, if that was a 2 or 3 next to his name rather than a P, or indeed if he came here on the back of that Worcester run.

Of the rest…well I won’t labour through them all. Relentless Dreamer has  a very good chance of following up in this. If this is soft/hard work he does have that to prove and on that basis 4s may be short enough. If he handles it he goes very close. According To Harry – he was an interesting outsider. He is lightly enough raced over fences, probably needed his last run, and will race prominently here- there is a chance he tries to make all, or in any case be in the right spot to take over from Sherwood’s when/if he starts to fade. Again the ground is a question with him but more of an unknown, so 10s/12s may be ok. I struggled to muster much enthusiasm for the rest, at the prices, but it does feel open enough.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Pam Sly (any odds)

2.35 Donc – All My Love

Trainer/jockey combo – Live Test

2.35 Donc – Oscar Rose (12/1< guide)

2.45 Taunt – Holdbacktheriver (12/1< guide)

 

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About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

11 Comments

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  • GOLF BETS SONY OPEN IN HAWAII

    Marc Leishman 1 point ew 1/5 7 16/1 CO PP BFSB
    He excell’s in windy conditions and he must be disappointed in last weeks 7th after sharing the lead after round 3

    Kevin Kisner 1 point ew 1/5 7 25/1 CO PP BFSB
    Kevin is another who enjoys the windy conditions of this course having two top 5 finishes in the last 2 years

    Warning having made a profit over the past 3 years which have all been proved by Optimum Sports and from September last year by this site thank you Josh there will be long losing runs so please have a suitable betting bank if you decide to follow my bets.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 9 months ago Reply


    • Solid picks Colin. I also like Ollie Schneiderhaes (easy for me to say!) at 80/1.

      Good luck in 2018.

      martin colwell 9 months ago Reply


      • Martin thanks for your comment and good luck to you in 2018 keep putting up the horses
        Cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 9 months ago Reply


  • Well that was frustrating. Traded at 1.04 before losing by a nose.

    Neil 9 months ago Reply


  • Great tipping anyway Josh, what a bad luck!
    It was the perfect journey on this kind of distance, started in rear, progressive all the time, aggressive on last fences. A so furious Twiston Davies can not be seen neither with odds-on shots and it’s a miracle I did not punch the screen goddamnit!

    Matteo 9 months ago Reply


    • cheers, that was the bet of the race and he should have won, so I won’t moan too much! Decent ride on the second, just kept him rolling and was in right spot when winner to be threw it away. One of those. On we go. Reading them just fine at the moment, no concerns there.

      Josh 9 months ago Reply


  • Very unlucky with Rolling Dylan today Josh. Oh so close!

    Nigel

    Nigel 9 months ago Reply


    • painful! I can live with it, the analysis was spot on and that was the bet in the race…he ran on well through the line when winning at Worcester, gritty attitude. Strange. May just be the track, what was in eyeline.

      Josh 9 months ago Reply


  • I was on it…but you can’t trust a horse like that now…..I’ll bin him now. Unlike the flat….You can’t produce a horse closer to the finish than the jockey did. It just wanted to
    go to the stables…..Blast.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 9 months ago Reply


    • Indeed, but everything has a price! 🙂 I’d have backed him today still if i’d noted he had attitude,which I wasn’t aware of – didn’t show that at Worcester…well, it’s not attitude, but he has just pulled himself up- maybe just Taunton and whatever was in his eyeline/position of the exit etc. Oh well.

      Josh 9 months ago Reply


  • Didn’t see the Rolling Dylan Race live so to speak; as at the Hospital; but just had the benefit of numerous rewinds on Racing Post Ultimate Race Replay. Definitely unlucky but that always evens out over time, think it simply idled and WW came “over the top”; I always wonder about that path at Taunton as have seen horses fly jump it and take it to be the finishing line, but in this case nothing really obvious there either.

    Just has to go in the “unlucky” file but my logic and experience tells me a bigger price one will have flip side of luck in coming days.

    GUTTED not to have flagged up Darcy Ward; I actually tweeted and mailed “the Darcy Ward” last night to tell him he was running (for those that don’t know Darcy Ward is an outstanding young Australian speedway rider who was sadly paralysed in a crash in Poland a few years ago, he is recovering well in Australia and like too many in the sport over the years; a sport I used to dabble in many moons ago; sadly badly injured. He is the protégé of a few old Aussie mates of mine from way back); so I hope Darcy had a few quid on and I shall send a few bob to his Benevolent Fund, despite not tipping/backing it.

    Ian SP2A 9 months ago Reply


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