Members Daily Post: 09/01/18 (complete)

NOTES x2 , Section 1, test zone , important updates

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Doncaster

2.35 –

Midtech Valentine (all hncps) I3 25/1 S2 S5 UP

Pollys Pursuit (hncp hurdle) 14,30 14/1 S2 3rd 9/1 

Rosie McQueen (m1) G3 16/1  S1 S2  2nd 14/1 

 

Taunton

2.10 – Broadway Buffalo (hncp chase) 12/1 S2 UP (Pipe will get another win from him on that showing)  

2.45 – Holdbacktheriver (hncp hurdle + m1 + m1) ES G1 8/1 S3  S1 UP

3.50 – One Night In Milan (NHF) 7/2

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 7th Jan 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (32/177, +118.75) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

2.35 Donc – Pollys Pursuit 14/1 (gen) 3rd  + Rosie McQueen 20/1 (gen)  2nd *

*on the back of Rolling Dylan I doubt i’ll suffer a more frustrating 20 minutes in the rest of 2018! Still, i’ll take the positives and at least Nick tipped the winner, anyone have the tricast??? 

 

Two stabs today that have lured me in given their price…

Pollys Pursuit – this one his having only her second handicap hurdle start, drops in class and her trainer is in red hot form – 11/26,13p the last 14 days. He is 6/21,8p, +30 SP with his handicap hurdlers here in the last 5 years. Given all of that I had to have a nibble at 14s. I would be throwing things at the TV if I didn’t and she won this, given the approach I am trying to nail in ‘the notes’. In terms of the horse… well she had some decent enough bumper and novice hurdle runs, given the subsequent winners that a couple of her races produced. She has been headstrong in the past and that was her downfall when beaten at 1/3 at Worcester. She then had 5+ months off and returned to Taunton 26 days ago when not doing much, never really put into the race, going up and down on the spot. She was keen enough through that race also. With any luck that run took the freshness out of her and this big field/likely decent pace, will help. At 14s there was just enough there to tempt me in. Oh and soft is still a question but it is an unknown. With unknowns if I like the price/think it may be factored in, i’ll have a go. Clearly I won’t be shocked if she pulls again, fades, and doesn’t really do anything. The market may guide. But she could well come on for that last run and she is unexposed in handicaps, so we will always live in hope…

Rosie McQueen – as is this one. The market will guide here and if there is no money/she drifts further, it will be 1 point loaned back to the bookies. I say that having looked at Jonjo’s stats for handicap hurdlers sent off 16/1-33/1 in the last 5 years or so…. 6/180,23p, in the green and gold of JP… 2/82,10p. The odd one does win, but my word they are hard to find! So, what about this one? Well I am trying to piece together the jigsaw here… she wore a tongue tie for the first time when last seen…she has since had 47 days off and doesn’t wear it here… educated guessing would suggest she may have had a wind op. That op may or may not make any difference at all! She gets first time CP here, and Jonjo’s record is ok with those in handicap hurdles- not a reason to be put off anyway. This is only her second handicap hurdle start, she drops in trip by 2f, runs on soft in handicaps for the first time, and in a big field where they may go a true pace. All of those things are reasons for why she may, or may not, improve. Given her profile there was enough there at 20s to roll the dice. Young/talented Jonjo junior takes off  a handy 7b also. It’s not a confident poke but at least there is method to my madness. Each Way is an option given 1/4 odds 4 places but these two have an ‘all or nothing profile’ – they are going to go very close or fall out the back of the TV I suspect. And I don’t wish to half my stakes on the win side, so it’s 1 point on the nose the pair from me. Cue, 2nd and 3rd!! (ah, indeed!!) 

It is a competitive race with the likes of Ruby Yeats in particular looking interesting, as does the unexposed Lavelle WON runner Nick touches on below. It is a competitive race with plenty of unexposed mares- the form could well be worth tracking as it could produce a few winners down the line. My head can’t see Midtech Valentine winning this on known evidence, but i’ve said that about horses before so we shall see!

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Of the rest, well nothing else jumped out at me from section 1, at the prices/horses profiles. Holdbacktheriver – well he is unexposed and doing something different- handicap hurdle debut + up in trip. I think he is the sort I can live with leaving, tipping wise. Williams isn’t prolific with handicap hurdle debutants but does ok. But it’s the horse- he really needs to step up. He arrives here rated OR 112 up against a handful of horses that look more interesting – Fidux OR 134 / Padleyourowncanoe 127 / Here’s Herbie 121(hacking up for S3A when fell LTO). I failed to see the Williams horse improving enough and all three of those under-performing/fluffing their lines. I could be wrong on that and I don’t like to make judgements too often based on other runners. But I couldn’t convince myself to have a go. Williams isn’t firing them in either at the moment. We shall see if I have that right. I’ll be able to live with it if he bolts up and at least will learn a lesson moving forwards!

One Night In Milan- as per the stats guide he is 4/8,7p with NHF horses first time out here and they usually run their race. Nicholls hasn’t had a winner in January yet and his yard is always worth watching this month as they have the winter flu jab in December and it can take the edge off plenty of his. Not sure I would want to be taking short prices but he will have winners still.

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Harry Bannister... has done ok since I mentioned him in a weekly article. He is 6/20,7p, +13 SP all runners in the last 30 days. Maybe i’ll have a look at those stats again and start tracking an angle in the test zone, as a starting point. Gavin Sheehan hasn’t done too badly either!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds)

1.25 Donc – The Last Of Them  100/1 UP

 

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

1.45 – Tha’ir (m1+m2) ES+ 11/2 S3A UP

2.55 – Viva Verglas (4yo+, +m1) ES I1 5/1 S3 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated to end 7th Jan 

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies 1st Jan 2018 – 7th Jan

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 1/43,11p, -41.2 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/24, -21.2 
  • S1 (0/3,2p,-3) S2 (0/15,3p, -15) S3 (0/7,1p,-7) S3A (1/8,1p, -6.2) S4 (0/5,2p, -5) S5 (0/5,2p, -5)

 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  1/1, +8  (not much jumped out at me this week, but pleased to land on one of the few decent priced winners in section 1)

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 3/14,5p, +11

 

IMPORTANT, PLEASE READ: – 

I have tidied up the advised strategies link/results in the Key. You can read this HERE>>>

  • Firstly there are just the results, inc the totals for 2017.
  • Then there are two appendices: A) Some notes on the strategies including the ‘rules’ and any other thoughts. These also include links to the video explaining how to place a bet on Betfair SP at 11.00+ (which is also in the Welcome Info link post in The Key) B) – a running update of the Test Zone jumps angles (i’ll add TTP AW in due course) and other ideas/angles including info on ‘Double Top Rated’ qualifiers.
  • Strategy 2: I’ll be keeping a running total on the results to betting 16/1-25/1 shots Each Way + win only.
  • Strategy 3, Elite Squad: This is really concerning me now, to the point that I am no longer comfortable advising you to follow it systematically. I can only apologise for prematurely taking that out of the ‘test/monitoring’ pile. It’s early success, where it hit around +60 points, appears to have gone to my head. Sadly there is every chance it is a crap approach. It has still maintained a 30% or so win/place SR and given it has no odds caps it may well have just been on an excruciating unlucky run that will turn around soon. But it’s on the naughty step. I have the most confidence in those strategies that are based on ratings pointers, (a red symbol-  S1,S4,S4, double top rated) as they are a constant and take account of the form/ability of the horse. Provided their methodology doesn’t change the expectation is that over time, results should just keep repeating. Strategy 2 has no ratings pointers but has a much bigger stats pool on which to make an assessment. My job is to constantly try and get the best out of the section 1 qualifiers, and in S3 I think I may have let you down on the evidence to date. It started so well! Time will tell, but it would be wrong of me not to face those current demons head on.

 

2017… looking at results over the year makes for decent enough reading. All strategies combined,inc multiple qualifiers, +430 points. If you ignored S2 and focused on the rest, +160 points.     S1 + S4 + S5, +170 points.  Now, i’d bite your hand off now for those three hitting +200 points in 2018. That would be some fun and decent profit to small stakes.

The back end to 2017, and start to 2018, has been awful on every front in Section 1, there is no hiding place from that. It has been testing. In an ideal world all the profit made in 2017 across various approaches would be spread out evenly month to month. Sadly that is never the case. It should turn around and those of us with the long game lenses fixed on, will do just fine.

Strategy 4  – this gives me most excitement and optimism moving forwards and does look like ‘THE’ strategy to follow – the foundation on which to build everything else. Across the Flat turf + Jumps it is now: 205 bets / 67 wins / 113 places (inc wins) / +72.5 points / 33% win SR / 55% win|p / 35% ROI . IF it can keep repeating those figures through 2018 then we will have much to cheer. Given the unique nature of the approach and the soundness in logic, it should. We have three ratings sets which are a constant, and are all very different- a non speed based set (horseracebase) and two speed ratings in Geegeez (uses AI/complex/not based on ‘standard times’) and Inform (more based on standard times I think). When you add those to my trainer stats qualifiers, it is a powerful pointer. Well, it has been so far. I suppose in another 205 bets we will know even more 🙂 If you are to follow just one system/strategy on here, the evidence + confidence in it’s future, would point to that one. Dear Lord I hope I haven’t just put the mockers on it.

TIPS‘ – or what I call my ‘notes’ horses (thinking of them as ‘tips’ seems to inhibit me psychologically!) are doing ok and I will try and repeat the results of the last 4 months or so. In truth if they could add +100 points per year to the pot I would be delighted. That’s a decent target to aim for and hopefully surpass.  I have much to improve on, esp over jumps, but it won’t be for the want of trying. I surprised myself with success on the Flat, so there is always that to look forward to! The last 4 months have proved beyond doubt, in my own mind, that the trainer research on these pages is a very good starting point for homing in on decent priced/value winners. And as I have always said, if I can’t make my own content pay over time, then I will never succeed at this game, as I don’t really have an excuse.

 

Fingers crossed for an enjoyable 2018. The aim has always been to create an engaged community with fun, interest, and profit at it’s heart, for the recreational/small stakes punter first and foremost.I hope that as we progress through the year you find an approach to the content that satisfies you and that you enjoy reading/watching my ramblings and those found in the comments. I think it all adds together to make something quite unique in our little racing world, but then I am biased 🙂 Hard graft is the only way to succeed in this game and ensure we stay in the 1-3% of racing punters that win long term. On we go. 

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The Week That Was: Article to follow later this morning/lunchtime, i’ll post a link in comments when done.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. The Burke/Curtis combination is quite formidable,and both do especially well at Southwell.Two qualifiers tomorrow but the pick at the prices is Helen Sherbert 1.15 11/1 Bet365.I think this also ties in with a micro of Josh’s for Curtiss micro of 7-7.5f class 2/3/4 handicaps
    I think if we can make 100 pts for the year from RTP in 2018 its job done,if i can make 100 more from my own bets it will be more than enough

    1. Welcome back to the comments Gerry, post Xmas festivities! Not a bad way to ease your way into the year! Wallop. (i’ve been busy with various things and have to say I missed that, but hope you had a go, sounds like Linda did so top work!) Josh

      1. Hi Matt,… you have been following the AW Jockey Course And Distance ones? I need to plug them into my HRB accounts I think, if I have room… if so, how have they been doing? The equivalent test for the Flat at back-end of last season found a few nice winners, but wiped it’s face.
        cheers
        Josh

        1. Hi Josh

          I’ve been trying to keep an eye on the AW jockeys CD specialist ones yea. I’ve caught most of them ( I don’t have an HRB account) , but I missed the one today as I forgot to look last night 🙁 can’t say I’ve had any big winners but I think a couple of lower priced ones have gone close. My memory isn’t the best but they are definitely worth tracking or even putting money on. After today I just feel a bit sick it won at that price.

    2. Well done Gerry and Nick. Couple of cracking winners there. Missed Gerry’ s but got Nick’s. With that, my own two and a few ew places, a pretty decent day.

  2. A nice 12/1 winner with Lucky Lodge tonight to give us at least 8pts profit with one still to come. AW action from Southwell tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    12.15 Epitaph 10/1 & Jabbaar 9/2
    1.45 Imitate Art 11/2 & London 13/2
    2.55 Viva Verglas 13/2 & Tasaaboq 7/1
    1pt win
    Sorry about the doublers but that’s just the way the numbers work out.

    Haven’t done any analysis on it but might have a look at whether reverse F/C might work when there are doublers. That’s after me just saying I won’t have as much time now I’m back to work lol.

    Good Luck

  3. your work is much appreciated ken and i am sure i speak for every one on our blog,just keep going mate and with josh @ your good self plus nick, martin and many others who are kind enough to post,we just might come out in front.

  4. Woolstone One Doncaster 14:35 1pt e/w-Looks to have a solid chance in this. Conditions will be fine and I think the step up in trip will suit. The form of her win two starts ago has worked out very well and last time out it was an odd sort of race so I am willing to forgive the one bad run. Lavalle is in decent form and has a solid record at the track. Sheehan comes over for the one ride (2/9, 4p when coming for just the one ride riding for the trainer). We are getting five places with Sky and looked solid enough as a bet.

    I have also had £5ew on Gilly Grace in the opener at Taunton given the first 2 from her race LTO have won since. Again Sky paying five places.

    1. Whilst I feel slightly bad for our all farseeing leader that’s a welcome winner. Less said about the other one the better.

      1. Well done Nick, I did back Woolstone One on your say so as I fancied having two in the race. My tipping was a bit off today although I thought Padleyourowncanoe caught an improver from the Fry stable in his race.

        I did back Roling Dylan each way and unfortunately he hit the front too early. A good effort though and also the two places in the notes for Josh.

        Also well done to Ken who found two winners with SP’s of 9/2 and 7/1 from 6 selections.

        So a good effort from these and other contributors who found winners today.

  5. The racing seems half decent today against what has gone before in 2018 so far. Nicky Henderson puts up two against short priced favourites at Doncaster. In the 12.25 and in the 1.25. I particularly like French Crusader in the 1.25 who they hope can win today and go forward to Cheltenham. In the 2.35 Cubswin is at the bottom of the weights at 10 stone, is still improving. Whilst I rate Nick’s pick of Woolstone in an open race, the 22/1 available on Cubswin looks OK in an open race.
    At Taunton in the 2.45 Padleyourowncanoe goes again and has not stopped winning yet I think. I am wary of the form of the Tizzard stable. The 3/1 available is borderline but take-able.

    Good luck.

    1. Painful! Yep pulled himself up. Cant do much about that. Best horse in the race on the day but you’ve got to want it. Didn’t realise he had that in locker not that it would have made a difference at price.

    1. Yep very frustrating but that’s why we love the game, and at least the winner was on here somewhere with Nick’s tip… for my betting bank i’d have preferred one of mine winning mind haha. Rolling Dylan was annoying. Reading them ok in 2018 so far so I won’t complain. On we go.

  6. great tipping nick with that woolstone one thats 4 wins from seven starts for that horse good start to the new year

  7. …and there’s another Indian River in the next hunter at Taunton. You’d have to be thinking The Lizard King won’t be able to mix it with the likes of Unioniste and Opening Batsman but at around 85 worth finding out for a few pennies. trainer looks to have had a few rules chase winners, including a good priced one in sonoftheking over long distance at Exeter in November.

    There’s an outside chance the well known horses in this may not be as up for it as they were once.

    1. JW and looked booked for 3rd or maybe 2nd about 3 out but couldn’t quicken, but good news eventually beaten far enough to keep a price for some point in future. Think I’ve seen the Portrait do that before, maybe Kelso or somewhere like that? Good race.

  8. Well Josh 2 races where you did nearly everything right & sods law comes into play – can’t believe Rolling Dylan didn’t win that race; simply idled in the last 50-100 yards or so

    1. Awful, painful scenes. A frustrating 20 minutes or so, but more positives than negatives to take from that. It was nearly glorious, but if I can keep reading such races/horses that well, i’ll do over time, hopefully. And such luck always evens out over the course of a season.

  9. Helen Sherbet was a bitter sweet result(think sherbet is too) as i backed it with bet365 who took away my BOG,i thought it was very good value at 11/1,how on earth it drifted so far is beyond me,but a winner nonetheless,only 89 to go!

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