Free Daily Post: 03/01/17 (complete)

micros + a look at the Kerry Lee angles/research…

TIPS

(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 0/0)

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Kerry Lee (12/1<)

2.20 Lud – Tree of Liberty (2x angles) WON 12/1 but 30p R4, so 8.4/1>9/2 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.50 Lud – Fille Des Champs (12/1< guide)

2.20 Lud – Tree of Liberty (12/1<) WON 12/1 but 30p R4, so  8.4/1>9/2 

*

A quick word on the Kerry Lee angles… I do need to recap on the year just gone for all the micro systems/angles, but for now…

We have been following a couple of angles for Kerry Lee last year and for most of 2016 I think…

Micro 1

Rules: Handicaps / Chases / Irish Bred / 12/1 or shorter SP / 2015- 

Results: 134 bets / 33 wins / 55 places (inc wins) / 25% sr / +78 SP / +98 BFSP / AE 1.35 

In 2017, with all qualifiers posted above : 47 bets /12 wins / 21 places / +35 BFSP

If you’d have taken ‘opening show’ odds, rather than SP, 10 mins or so before the off, that would have been worth +31 points more on top of the +78. No doubt morning prices may have been worth a bit more. Those qualifiers sent off bigger than 12/1 SP are now 0/31,3p in the period.

This is a decent  angle that still continues to churn out the winners. If nothing else it’s a decent starting point for bets. We shall see how she gets on in 2018!

Micro 2

Rules: Handicaps / Chases / Not 1-3 runs in previous 90 days / 12/1 or shorter SP / 2015- 

Results: 47 bets / 11 wins / 19 places (inc wins) / 23% sr / +24 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 1.21 

2017: 3/17,7p, +8

Originally this angle included research that covered her father’s runners, before she took over the day to day training. The Lee’s were very good with chasers that were either running fresh (0 runs in prev 90 days) or were what i would call ‘hard fit’, so 4+ runs in the previous 90 days. Having looked at the stats it appears Kerry may have changed the approach slightly and this angle may now be irrelevant. They are still adept at readying them after a break but in the last two years those with 2 or 3 runs in the previous 90 days may be the place to focus – so, they are fit, but still fresh enough! 🙂

So, those with 2 or 3 runs only in the previous 90 days are: 87 bets / 22 wins / 39 places (inc wins)/ 25% sr / +46 SP / +63 BFSP / AE 1.4

I have that angle saved and will track it on here. Micro 1 should keep chugging along and of course there is some cross over with all the angles. As with Tree of Liberty above, he hits both micros 1+2, although the market will guide as to whether he qualifiers or not. Currently on the boundary, he was 14s+ before a NR, and may drift out again.

Those qualifiers are worth keeping an eye on and should point you to a few winners in the coming months.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

    1. Hi Tom,
      Yep, sorry- unless I specify otherwise the placed stats always include the winners. That’s how HorseraceBase records them, and how I present them.
      Josh

  1. Little odds puzzle
    Jack and Jill have two children
    what are the odds of
    1. both being Girls
    2 both being boys
    3 one of each sex

    1. Assuming there are only 2 genders each outcome is equally likely at 2/1. I am slightly confused as probability theory says each outcome has a 25% chance (3/1), I think.

  2. I think it’s 1/1 in all cases

    The bet is based on the factor of boy or girl

    which can only be 50 / 50

    irrespective of the numbers the only question is boy or girl

    In my opinion which is probably Wrong

    I say 50/50 or even money

    1. two girls 3/1
      two boys 3/1
      one of each evens

      to explain two girls odds of first baby being a girl evens
      so once you have one girl you have a evens double that the second will also be a girl

      the same for boys.

      if the odds were two of the same sex against two of opposite sex the odds would be evens

      obviously if the first one is either a boy or a girl it is even money that the second one will be the opposite sex

      1. This clarifies my thinking. The possible outcomes are:
        GG
        BB
        GB
        BG.
        All are equally likely at 3/1 i.e 25% probabilty.

    1. no problem, yep nice when the ones you make a song and dance of, win (well, a focus on those Lee angles) Money came, loaded up when started to be backed 12s<. Jumped so well. Shame a 30p R4 as may have beaten everyone there. Has hacked up. Joy to watch. Hopefully they tick along during 2018 again. Nice to see Lee getting some young/new blood through. Her last winner was a youngster. I was fearing she now had a yard of old boys but clearly got plenty of support from owners etc. She can train a chaser alright.

  3. Josh,
    Your macros have started to interest me as everybody has access to current form
    and the prices are pretty much what they should be.

    The macro idea seems to go beyond the parameters that the majority of the
    racing public go for.

    I have noticed that horses transferred from one country to another
    often take one or two races to equal their ratings from their original country.

    Mullins and Henderson are exceptions and often buck the trend.
    I have spotted a trend with some of the Mullins horses though
    I look for very stoutly bred horses that get beaten or win narrowly fto in bumpers or novice hurdles
    when they have been put in the pack.

    They can win fto but often their stamina isn’t fully test and 2nd time they will
    go straight to the front and make it a real gallop

    Willie had two bumper winners with this type of horse over the last couple of weeks
    and they went off very good prices for mullins at 4/1 and 3/1.

    Have you any macros for ex French horse transferring to the uk

    1. Hi Peter,
      I don’t sadly. I use HorseRaceBase for all of my systems research and that doesn’t take account of form from France. French horses can take quite a while to adapt depending on their age/how much they raced over there.
      Josh

  4. Hiya Josh
    have you got a personal email address that I can contact
    you on about a personal matter
    Cheers
    Dave

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