Members Daily Post: 03/01/18 (complete)

NEW! Weekly Article… + Section 1, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Musselburgh

2.00 –

Sleep In First (hncp hurdle) 14 30 ES H3 I3 G3 11/2 S3 S4  S1+S5 UP 11/2>8/1 , 12.00 BFSP

Nendrum (hncp hurdle) 30 H3 G1 9/2    WON 9/2>11/4 

2.30 – Full Jack (hncp hurdle) 30 I1 G1 9/2   S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Ludlow

3.50 – Lady Of The Night (NHF) 14,30  18/1 S2  3rd 18/1>6/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 31st Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/176, +110.75) (1 point win bets)

No tips again today.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

Southwell

12.40 – Stoneboat Bill (m1)  I1 16/1 S6 

1.40 – Viva Verglas (4yo+ + m1) ES I1 13/2 S3 S6

2.40-

Bold Spirit (m1) 13/2

The Great Wall (m1 + m2) ES G1 4/5 

3.40 –

Big Amigo (4yo+, + m1) 11/2

Kafoo (m1) ES G3 13/2 S3

 

Wolverhampton

5.10 – De Little Engine (m1) ES  12/1 S3

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Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.50 Lud – Angle Moon (m2)

 

Richard Hobson (33/1< guide)

1.20 Lud – Etoo Sport

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key updated to end 31st December. 

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies 25th-31st 

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 8/53,13p, +15.4 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/45, +7.4 
  • S1 (0/2,0p, -2) S2 (3/20,5p, +20.4) S3 (1/11,3p, -8) S3A (0/8,0p, -8) S4 (3/6,4p, +6) S5 (1/6,1p, +7)

 

NOTES – 1/6, +1.75

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Weekly Article: ‘The Week That Was’ : READ HERE>>>

5 pages and 2080 ‘words’ to get stuck into this week…some handicappers to keep an eye on, a look at Irish trainer jumps horses running in the UK, Jonjo O’Neill’s handicap debutants and a few other bits and pieces.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

    1. Cheers Mike, yep he has… this year’s NHF angle just looks at unraced horses and he ran here a few weeks back, unseating in the process! Jockey bookings suggest Sea Story is more fancied but who knows, Kim was 5/5 with his NHF newbies here before his last runner, now 5/6 in recent years.
      Happy new year to you too,
      Josh

  1. Southwell 1:40 Vroom is a tad interesting tomorrow at 9-1 currently, not sure of the stats but I remember reading somewhere that when GK applies some form of headgear to a horse for the first time they can shown improvement. Only reason I remember it was because I ignored it and that afternoon a 16-1 winner followed duly unbacked! More research needed but might be worth a look

    1. Hi Mark…

      Hmmm, not sure where you read that but I haven’t found much on the Gay Kellaway headgear front, having just had a look…
      last 5 years, horse’s 1st run in headgear….

      93 bets / 9 wins / 27p / +7 SP / +29 BFSP / AE 0.95

      those results skewed by 2 biggies, 20/1+

      broken down by headgear: CP 3/31,10p, Blinkers 3/29,9p , others smaller numbers

      In handicaps, all 1st time headgear, 2/37,14p

      BUT!!

      having been thinking while writing this… and having looked again…

      IF you just focused on 1st time headgear, All-Weather, Class 6

      19 bets / 5 wins / 8 places / +41 SP / +53 BFSP

      In handicaps 0/9,2p, in non handicaps (winners in maiden, claimers, sellers) 5/10,6p, +62 BFSP

      So, there is something there. And it makes logical sense… poor animals in the worst class of racing really- an all-weather class 6 (well,there is C7) – needing to find an edge, 1st run headgear doing the trick.

      Even more so in claimers/sellers if Gay plans to sell a horse – what better advertisement than when they bolt up in first time headgear, probably never to run well again!!

      (as an aside that’s a logical angle i’ll add to the to-do list, 1st time headgear in sellers/claimers. hmmm)

      hope that’s helpful, very micro, but may throw up the odd biggie over time,
      Josh

  2. First winner of the year still eludes me but two AW meetings tomorrow to hopefully break my duck. Qualifiers as follows:
    Southwell
    12.40 Stoneboat Bill 14/1
    1.40 Tellovoi 12/1 & Viva Verglas 13/2
    3.10 Athassel
    3.40 Naralsaif 8/1 & Meandmyshadow 9/1

    Wolves
    4.10 Oor Jock 4/1
    4.40 Bush Beauty 11/2
    5.10 Joey’s Destiny 8/1 & Arnarson 9/2
    5.40 Energia Flavio
    6.10 Barbara Villiers 4/1
    6.40 Luv U Whatever 12/1 & Bayston Hill 15/2
    7.10 Ravenhoe 8/1
    1pt Win each

    Good Luck

    1. That’s better. Tellovoi goes in at 12’s. Can’t believe he won really. Had to be dragged a furlong just to go to gate then totally missed the break. Stormed through to win by a nose.

      Off and running for 2018.

    2. Meandmyshadow also squeaks home at 9s. Profit for the day guaranteed. Anything else from Wolves is a bonus. Fingers crossed 🙂

  3. It’s something or nothing really Josh but just pointing out you’ve missed the S3 from the qualifier 2.00 Muss.

    Cheers.

    1. Ah yes, so I have, cheers! yep do always point those out albeit hopefully everyone gets used to the codes in time, but i can make the odd clanger every now and then.

  4. Intresting horse 12.40 Southwell general allenby seems to have found its form over 2 miles and still on a good mark last time out raced wide causing it to use itself up to soon. One unknown is the track if it handles it could win this .

    1. GL, i had a nibble at 18s but don’t get your hopes up with these unraced horses! 🙂 This is the track Bailey tends to target with a decent bumper horse/those that are ready first time, but he has another here which Bass is on and a well fancied Hendo fav, so who knows! Given his record here with NHF horses first run, was worth a dabble at that price. I don’t do laying so will leave that to others! Not much point if you are a recreational punter.

    1. hmm, don’t think a case if Mikey deserting, he would have been told which one he was riding and I suspect Bass has ridden both at home – he would have had first choice I think but could have that wrong. But you can’t not back a biggie on that basis.

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