Members Daily Post: 04/01/18 (complete)

TIP, Section 1 + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Bangor

3.20 – Tailor Tom (m1) 14,30 7/1 WON 8/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 31st Dec)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (31/176, +110.75) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.20 Bangor – Tailor Tom – 7/1 (gen) WON 8/1 

This one has more than enough going for him to have a play at 7/1. I wouldn’t want much shorter given the questions he has to answer but any support would be a positive sign. He arrives here after three runs in maiden hurdles over 20f, having looked badly outpaced each time. He should be fit and McCain continues in fine form… 9/30,16p in the last 14 days. His underlying stats at the track are decent also. 19/59,32p, +40 all runners here in the last year. Trainer/jockey 12/35,19p,+35 here in the last year. The horse… well he is having the fourth rules run of his life, makes handicap hurdle debut and steps up in trip by 4f. He ticks every box for ‘the magic formula’ including both the trainer being in form and this being a poor race on paper. Very winnable. My bullishness is tempered slightly by the fact that McCain isn’t prolific with handicap hurdle debutants – 4/69,15p since the start of 2015. Although those at Bangor are 1/4,3p in that time. So, certainly no reason to be put off. The horse runs as if he will relish this step up in distance. He plugged on well in his 3m point in Ireland and does shape like a dour stayer who will relish conditions. There is only one way to find out! He could have stacks in hand here and gets to run against a mediocre bunch. There are no unexposed hot pots in this with ‘sexy’ profiles to be scared of. If he handles the ground and stays he should be in the mix. All evidence suggests he will do both and with any luck he has at least 10lb in hand! He is entered 3 times in the next week after today- maybe they expect him to bolt up, turn him out again quickly under a penalty, and bolt up again. All the signs are there. A ‘ratings pointer’ would have boosted confidence but he hasn’t been running in conditions where he can show his true ability so nothing to get too hung up on at the price. Fingers crossed. This is one of those bets that strikes me as going one of two ways.

*

*

Re-cap... well in hindsight I should have written some notes on that 2.00 Muss – Nendrum… a conundrum.. hopefully some of you backed him as 9/2 turned out to be decent. I tipped him here LTO at 25s>7s, 3rd. He ran well that day and led for a way. He got out-paced but then appeared to get a second wind to stay on again. Learning points… when pondering why he could have hacked up in this race I could have considered that he would try and make all again (was clear on pace-maps he would do so, with the other qualifier up there, but prob happy to take a lead,and he had older legs) and then a question of why he would stay there. Three things for me to ponder.. 1. he returned after 16 days here. His run LTO was after 72 and maybe they left a bit to work on. 2. It was softer ground here and there is a chance he preferred that to good, he certainly didn’t get out-paced here as he had been at the business end LTO. 3. This was a weaker race than LTO. He had more weight on his back which was an indication of that – well, there were fewer horses in it with a higher OR than him, and the last race was starting to work out ok. Oh and the trainer was ‘in form’. So, plenty going for him. It was a weak race on paper as indicated by a lack of amber/green on geegeez instant expert. Well, there were not too many ‘been there and done it’ types in conditions. I put some of those pieces together in my head this morning and should have written some notes on him, but i’d still be sat here bemoaning not tipping him no doubt! Working out when 7/2-11/2 is value is something I’m not very good at. As simple as that. I’m convinced if I keep hammering such points as those above that one day they’ll seep into my brain and i’ll start tipping such horses.

Given many of the ‘tips’ focus on unexposed horses it makes sense that they should show something one day, and I really should do a better job of tracking them/considering them in more depth. I’ll add that to the growing list of New Year’s resolutions.

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP All-Weather

(remember this is a test and so far most are still running! You should not be backing any of these systematically on evidence to date) 

Newcastle

1.30 – Thankyou Very Much (all hncps + 4yo+) ES+ 6/1 S3A 2nd 11/1

3.45 – Twiggy (m1) 10/1 UP

4.55 – Fruit Salad (all hncps + 4yo+) ES+ I3 10/1 S3A UP

 

Wolverhampton

4.05 –

The Hooded Claw (m1) ES 9/2 S3 UP

Jack Blane (m1) ES H1 I3 G3 5/1 S3 S4 S2 UP

4.35 –

Butoolat (m1) ES H3 7/1 S3 UP

Pushkin Museum (m1) ES H3 I3 G3 5/1 S3 S4 S5  WON 6/1 

5.05 – Influent (all hncps) H3 I3 G1 3/1 S2 S4 WON 3/1>11/4 

5.35 –

Gabrial The Terror (m1) ES 9/1 S3  2nd 9/1 

Acker Bilk (m1) 9/4 WON 4/1 

 

Chelmsford 

6.45 – Samphire Coast (4yo + m1) ES+ H3 G3 13/2 S3A  UP

7.45 –

Udontdodou (all hncps) H1 I1 G1 2/1 S1 S4

Dynamo Walt (4yo+) 18/1

8.15 – Loyalty (4yo+ , + m1) ES+ H3 I3 14/1 S3A 

8.45 – Captain Scooby (all hncps) I3 7/1 

*

 

D McCain (14/1< guide)

3.20 Bang – Tailor Tom 7/1 WON 8/1 

 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

1.45 Bang – Vice et Vertu (m3) 9/2 WON 9/2>6/1

*

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Best put the kettle on… my hot beverage of choice at the moment is Lemsip… 

Weekly Article: ‘The Week That Was’ : READ HERE>>>

5 pages and 2080 ‘words’ to get stuck into this week…some handicappers to keep an eye on, a look at Irish trainer jumps horses running in the UK, Jonjo O’Neill’s handicap debutants and a few other bits and pieces.

*

If you missed my Kerry Lee notes from Wednesday’s free post I have repeated those below. It has probably been the most consistent free micro i’ve researched and qualifiers are posted on the free posts, as they have been since some point in 2016 if not before. Another winner on Thursday, 16/1>12/1 (qualified at that point) >9/2 (30p r4) 

A quick word on the Kerry Lee angles… I do need to recap on the year just gone for all the micro systems/angles, but for now…

We have been following a couple of angles for Kerry Lee last year and for most of 2016 I think…

Micro 1

Rules: Handicaps / Chases / Irish Bred / 12/1 or shorter SP / 2015- 

Results: 134 bets / 33 wins / 55 places (inc wins) / 25% sr / +78 SP / +98 BFSP / AE 1.35 

In 2017, with all qualifiers posted above : 47 bets /12 wins / 21 places / +35 BFSP

If you’d have taken ‘opening show’ odds, rather than SP, 10 mins or so before the off, that would have been worth +31 points more on top of the +78. No doubt morning prices may have been worth a bit more. Those qualifiers sent off bigger than 12/1 SP are now 0/31,3p in the period.

This is a decent  angle that still continues to churn out the winners. If nothing else it’s a decent starting point for bets. We shall see how she gets on in 2018!

Micro 2

Rules: Handicaps / Chases / Not 1-3 runs in previous 90 days / 12/1 or shorter SP / 2015- 

Results: 47 bets / 11 wins / 19 places (inc wins) / 23% sr / +24 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 1.21 

2017: 3/17,7p, +8

Originally this angle included research that covered her father’s runners, before she took over the day to day training. The Lee’s were very good with chasers that were either running fresh (0 runs in prev 90 days) or were what i would call ‘hard fit’, so 4+ runs in the previous 90 days. Having looked at the stats it appears Kerry may have changed the approach slightly and this angle may now be irrelevant. They are still adept at readying them after a break but in the last two years those with 2 or 3 runs in the previous 90 days may be the place to focus – so, they are fit, but still fresh enough! 🙂

So, those with 2 or 3 runs only in the previous 90 days are: 87 bets / 22 wins / 39 places (inc wins)/ 25% sr / +46 SP / +63 BFSP / AE 1.4

I have that angle saved and will track it on here. Micro 1 should keep chugging along and of course there is some cross over with all the angles. As with Tree of Liberty above, he hits both micros 1+2, although the market will guide as to whether he qualifiers or not. Currently on the boundary, he was 14s+ before a NR, and may drift out again.

Those qualifiers are worth keeping an eye on and should point you to a few winners in the coming months.

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, reading your Irish micro angle, are there plans to release these as micro angles, I also recall a couple of angles, 1 of which was Ben Aitkens re: the Cheltenham Festival
    1) Ran at Leopardstown last time out
    – non handicap
    – handicaps
    2) Ran at Leopardstown in a graded event
    – non handicap
    – handicap
    3) in handicaps, all UK and Irish
    – ran in a graded race last time

    Is it possible to put on the backlog any stats about these?

    Thanks, Paul

    1. Hi Paul,
      Yep I’ve got the Irish Angles track LTO one saved…well that is the only one really… saved without the ‘not a hurdle race LTO’ rule saved… will give us something to get stuck into.
      Festival… there will be full coverage as last year, I try to go to town on that week. Ben and I have a few angles that cross over and my Festival Irish Angles did well last season. I’m not thinking about the Festival just yet…February!! 🙂
      Plan to follow Jonjos C4 angle also
      Josh

  2. Well that was a cracking day today. 4 winners across 2 meetings to give us 21pts profit for the day (incl NR’s and R4’s), wiping out the losses of the last 2 days. Famine or feast comes to mind!

    Incredibly there are three AW meetings tomorrow. I’ll put up qualifiers for Wolves and Chelmsford just now but will have a play around with the stats for Newcastle before I commit as my usual strategy doesn’t seem to work there and a modified strategy yesterday fared no better. If there is anything worth noting I will add it later tonight or tomorrow morning.
    Wolves
    1.55 Hard Graft 8/1 & Swissal 4/1
    2.25 Progressive Jazz 11/2 & Trick Shot Jenny 12/1
    3.30 Kingofmerrows 11/2
    4.05 Strictly Carter 6/1 & Spin Top 12/1
    4.35 Bonjour Steve 10/1 & Pushkin Museum 11/2
    5.35 Pour L’amour 10/1
    1pt win each

    Chelmsford
    Just the one qualifier
    6.15 Volevo Lui 25/1 (1/2pt EW)

    Good Luck

    1. OK, I’ve crunched the no’s and I have a few qualifiers for Newcastle as follows:
      1.30 Dream Serenade 7/1
      3.45 Symbolic Star 5/1
      4.55 Pearl Acclaim 5/1

      Good Luck

        1. Thanks Chris. I’m just as surprised as you are and was settling for a middling kind of day then Volevo Lui only goes and rocks up at 25/1 early/BOG. I believe 40s was available at some point today but let’s not be greedy 🙂 Well done if anyone had that though.

      1. Thanks guys. You begin to ask why am I still including 25/1’s in the qualifiers even though the stats are telling you it’s the right thing to do. When it comes off it’s rather rewarding. It’s a bit like your S2 strategy Josh, except my range is currently 4/1 – 25/1.

        1. Awesome Ken. Not sure why, but I included Volevo in a L15 last night. I also had Tailor Tom (W), Vettori Rules (DH) and Catching on (shite).

          Returned £1300+ for a £37.50 bet. I’m at a family wedding in Ireland tonight, so it looks like the drinks are on me (thanks to you)

          1. Wow, that is some return for your money! Well done. I’ve heard the Irish like a little drink so your winnings might not last long 🙂

  3. Tailor Tom Bangor 15:20 1pt e/w-Maybe I should be backing this one win only but there aren’t many better combos than McCain and Kennedy over hurdles at Bangor. They have a very good record including 2/3, 3p with hurdlers making their handicap debut. He hasn’t ran too badly in his last two runs and given the marks of those he was beat by he could be well treated. Has a solid pedigree being related to the likes of Simply Ned and Phil’s Magic to name but two. I guess there is a bit of a concern over the ground. (This is clearly more of a Josh pick than pro typical Nick pick so he is bound to tip it in the morning) I do expect a good run nonetheless.

    1. Oh how right you are haha – cursed we are. I forget the last time we both agreed and they hacked up – but all indications are that this one may well bolt up today. We have to play at 7s to find out. His point form and how he has run to date suggest the ground is ok. It is an unknown but he has handled soft to my eye, just running over a trip too short it seems. It’s exciting waiting for these types to run. His entries in the coming days caught my eye – in theory he could have stacks in hand. We will find out soon enough. GL.

      1. Ah yeah I should have checked the PtP history that was sloppy of me. How do our handicap hurdle debut stats differ? (unless you took out novice handicap hurdles) I actually thought the handicap debut was a positive given 112 with Kennedy at Bangor.

        1. Yep I only had a quick dive into HRB and V4, digging into his stats…yep just looked at ‘handicap hurdle’ not novice handicaps – just wanted to find a reason not to be put off, rather than a positive affirmation – but yep given his overall stats, and as you touch on with Kennedy (didn’t bother looking at those) – it is a positive really. Stats only from start 2015 also, just looked last 3 full years. One of those bets that leaves you in a comfortable place, whatever the result. If every bet I placed ticked all those boxes (every one – inc trainer form etc) we’d do just fine over time. Just had to play at 7s. Clearly it’s too good to be true but just have to be patient and wait for these types as they do jump out. Seems to have been well placed also. An 11yo at 9/4 fav, with a change of headgear, HU horse, doesn’t like winning that often. Says it all as to the quality of this race.

      2. This race seems to be a popular one. Geegeez Stat of The Day has a runner and SP2A have two in it. Nothing like a bit of competitiveness.

        1. Yep, we shall see! I cant be backing American Life at 9/4< now but can see why Chris has gone for him. He is the solid one in this who looks likely, more than the others, to definitely run his race. That may well be all he needs. It does very much depend on the McCain horse. He either blows this lot away or is just moderate/flounders in the mud etc. If he does then it does become fairly open to a point. We'll find out soon enough.

          1. At 3/1 ( I managed to get 10/3, BF & PP opening show), I though AL was a value proposition. Would I have put him up at 9/4 or even 2/1 as he is places? No, I wouldn’t.

            3/1 to 9/4 is a massive difference (reality v numerality).

            Chris

          2. You don’t need to justify your SOTD picks Chris haha- i’ve no idea how you do it consistently, year after year, in the 5/2-11/2 or so range, consistently spotting value etc – a skill that as yet I don’t posses, so i tend to just ignore that end, and then beat myself up when a 9/2 shots gets backed to 11/4 and hacks up! 🙂

          3. I think, that pretty much like yourself, my success lies in (a) putting the hours in, (b) refusing to get too affected by the inevitable drawdowns and (c) having a thick skin when the abuse is flying around.

            To be fair, I have an advantage over most punters in that this is my full-time job! So I can (and do!) spend all day at it : a luxury most aren’t afforded.

            Chris

          4. We shall see. Looks to me one of those really bad win bets and really good e/w bets so even 3/1 is thin given last win was 20 starts ago. Seems to always find one too good so almost certainly he will hack up now.

    1. It won well as well. I will have a few quid on as well. I hear Apalus, 1.30 Nc, is expected to go well over 2M in a competitive race. Uppertown Prince, 2.15 BOD, steps up in distance and should be suited by it and can go in again.

      Good luck.

  4. Josh,

    The Kerry Lee is interesting, of course and I’m still surprised the prices of her runners aren’t reflecting her success just yet. I’ve been backing this Irish-bred runners for a while and I’ve found that if you focus on short & long distances ie 1m7f to 2m4f and then 3m3f and beyond, that’s where the winners lie.

    Keep cracking on, mate.
    Chris

    1. Cheers Chris, yep one of the first ones I researched on the free posts I think. Well, when it was ‘just’ a blog back in the day.
      Yep she knows how to source and train a chaser alright, and yet still the market seems to ignore her. That is one of the positives of there always being a new ‘sexy’ name on the block I suppose. There is rarely much ‘noise’/ chatter, about the Lee yard. Odd.

      Yep, i have looked at he distances before and maybe I should exclude…within that very simple of angles those running 2m4.5f – 3m2.5f are just 4/41,12p, -21 since start 2015. And if you stripped those out then it really does look good.

      But, on the flip side, when you look at the different increments, it doesn’t look as bad.. eg 3m1f-3m2f are 0/5,2p, 3m-3m.5f 2/13,4p. And having looked in recent years they are generally a lot of the same horses/old boys… it will be interesting if things change with new blood etc.

      Just trying to think through the logic really. I suppose she knows if he has a speed horse and how to place them. A 2m-2m4f horse is just that. And if running in testing ground any extra stamina no bad thing. Maybe those in that middle range of distances are being prepped for further in time/they are stayers that need stepping up in trip.
      Trying to ponder an obvious reason why she wouldn’t do as well over those distances. Maybe nothing to do with her and just the oppo. Those ‘extreme’ ends are specialists – whereas in the middle you get speed horses who may get away with staying, and stayers who may get away with shorter, thus making the races more competitive etc. something there maybe.
      I’ll have to save the distance system separately now and maybe flag them! A solid 30% win SR.

      Likewise, we’ll keep plugging away,
      Josh

  5. Afternoon.

    A qualifier on this AW system I looked at last month has cropped up today.

    5.05 Wolv – Nonios.

    David Simcock – Handicap Runners (aged 6 or less) – Dec/Jan.

    1. Yep, not bad 🙂 Have been pulling together all jumps test zone angles since start of Sept.
      Sept-end Dec : 30/137,47p, +35.5 (just backing each horse once)

      In same period the Paddy angles: 5/27,7p ,-1 … however in 2018 I think he has added +10 points or so now, which makes it look s a bit better!

      Do like a drift… McCains is on the walk, so not filled with confidence with that one!!

  6. Great result Josh/Nick. Thank you both, my bank needed that. Even topped up a bit when the price drifted so a good result all round

    1. Thanks Jamie. I was saying to a couple of friends before the race that it looked like he lost a leg given the drift but I guess you don’t need legs when you can fly like that.

      1. blimey Nick we got one right between us! A rarity.
        He is a dour stayer isn’t he? And still green as grass. They have gone a crawl there and he was trapped as it picked up a tad – WK had to settle him early and probably wanted to stick to rail for education/keep him straight. Showed a change of gear there thankfully. A stronger pace / 3 and 1/2 miles wouldn’t go amiss! Should be noted that he handles an absolute bog, get him to Haydock! 🙂

        1. Yeah certainly one for the long distance chases down the line. BTW what do you make of Kennedy and Hughes sharing the McCain rides today? (with Murtagh on the last one) Not that either did much wrong with 3 wins and a 2nd.

          1. Yea i’m not sure really. I can’t think it is an owners decision but you never know. It could just be ‘stable management’ and wanting to keep Hughes sweet maybe? When multiple northern meetings DM can now have multiple runners all over the place. Not a bad jockey to all on. And he may have been helping out at home etc and he ‘owed’ him some rides, you never know. Didn’t seem to be any preference as such and WK still looks the go to man. I prefer WK as he is more aggressive and I would rather have him making all I think.

  7. now that was a very good day when not much to go at. backed Tailor Tom 3 times and doubled it up with the Paddy Brennan 1.45 Bang – Vice et Vertu for 63-1 , plus Samuel Jackson did it again 🙂

    1. Hi Mike, haha – well in fairness Nick commented first but I saw ‘Tailor Tom’ in the comments and made sure I didn’t read any further before I had pondered. I try not to flick through any comments or indeed read SP2A’s email before I come to my own conclusion. So, it should be read as more of a positive when we agree as it will have been independent of each other.

      Given his profile /price and my MO with ‘the notes’ he was always going to be tipped really. I’d like to think +119 points from 177 bet would give you some confidence in my notes horses! 🙂 (over time) That ‘magic formula’ will lead to success, as it has, just a case of finding consistency etc. I think between Nick and myself out ‘tips’ must have creamed near enough 220-250 points since the start of September. Not bad going.
      Josh

  8. Well done Josh….As i had to back two from sp2a…i [rarely ] left it…not even a saver….lol….I hope your ear’s were burning…..the right one…lol

    Well done though mate……I’m crying into my large.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Ah damn, shame we converged on the same race. Sod’s law though…if youd have left out one they probably would have won and you’d still be crying into your larger. 🙂
      If you’ve been backing all SP2A since start of trial etc, i’m sure you’ll cope just fine haha.
      I needed that one, for the old confidence – that approach does work, just fine tuning for consistency. Just have to wait for the stars to align.
      Maybe things are turning… 2x S4 (treble rated) on the sodding all-weather!!! who would have thought it!
      cheers
      Josh

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.