Members Daily Post: 22/11/17 (complete)

Section 1, NOTES (x2) test zone, results updates, D Peat,

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Hexham

2.35 – Beyondtemptation (m1) G3 20/1 S1 S2  UP 6/1

3.40 – Topham Bay (m1) ES+ H3 6/1  S3A UP 13/2 

 

Warwick

1.05 – Ballybrowneybridge (nov hncps) 14/1 S2 UP

2.45 – Groundunderrepair (all hncps) 14 H3 I3 G1  7/2 S4  2nd 5/2 

 

Chepstow

3.00- Sam Noir (all hncps + m1) ES+ 16/1 S2 S3A

3.30 – Handsome Sam (all hncps + hncp chase) ES G3 16/1 S1 S2 S3  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov – End of Flat 2017)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 19th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (27/140, +120.5) (1 point win bets)

NOTES

3.40 Hexham- Topham Bay UP – well held up last, never in the race, probably PU, and clearly hasn’t handled conditions by the looks of it. A disappointing day that i’ll move on from pretty quickly.  I want to have a go at this one as having mentioned her before I think i said something along the lines of ‘i’d be interested in her if running at Hexham in a C5, on heavy’. Well. Having watched both her runs live this year she does look a slow paced plodder. This is her third handicap hurdle, she drops in class, runs on heavy, wears a tongue tie for the second time and gets first time cheekpieces. This also looks a poor race on paper with hardly any with proven form on heavy. This could be quite a slog. I think she may want further in time. There is every chance she is just moderate. She may not handle heavy but a few of her novice runs would give you hope. I’d like to think she may keep galloping when plenty have given up. Many of Russell’s usually do when running here in a muddy C5. 6/1 just allows the play.

 

2.35 Hexham- Beyondtemptation – UP 6/1… ah, well worth a go at 16s+, no issues there. Appears she is just out of sorts as she didn’t look up for it a long time before conditions would have taken their toll. Worth a stab, and as with most in that price range, she didn’t win sadly! Or run any sort of race. Out on her feet at the end.  There is still some 16s about for this one, and I am pleased to see some money coming. I hope you got on at 20s and if you haven’t backed her as either an S1, S2 or both, I really would have something on if I were you, given the odds. It could well be that she is out of form and will lead to about 2 out before fading. But, this is her favourite venue, she has bounced back from ‘poor’ runs before, and she has conditions in her favour. She is versatile but there is a chance this ground saps the energy out of plenty of others in this. They will try and make all. There are a handful that may pester her but she doesn’t have to lead. Her chance is improved if Tommy D can dictate. The only question with her is her recent ‘form/well being’ but I have long learnt that if they tick various boxes above, all race conditions are fine, and you like the price- you should just ignore that! It may have some influence on how confident you are as to staking amount, but not whether you back her. ‘She was rubbish LTO, so I won’t back her’ , as the sole reason, is a form of analysis that should be consigned to the bin. (all in the context of price, were she under 8/1 say,that may be more of a consideration) Well, that’s how I look at these things. She is also a tearaway front runner most of the time… which, if say you wanted to get her mark down, or you had a plan to return to Hexham, does provide the perfect cover. You can often look at ‘quiet’ rides from the back. But don’t discount the ‘going too hard up front’ as a method of concealing ability for another day. That’s the game. Going too hard deliberately is clearly dodgy, but i’m not sure how you would ever measure that! And often it will be due the jockey just getting it wrong/useless clock in their head. Interesting enough. So, you never know. She may have done too much from the front LTO, or just had an off day, or is just out of form. Given she could get out on the front end and stay there, 14s-20s is worth a poke to find out.

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Others… On looking through today I thought we may have some fun. It will be a bit annoying if they all run shockers. I thought Sam Noir looked interesting but he is now a NR. We have the two at Hexham and I hope they give us a run for our money. Groundunderrepair… well at 4/1, 7/2, given he is an S4, is worth a go… I really should be disciplined with my ‘tipping’ above and try and stick to 6/1+ … I thought I wouldn’t put the mockers on him by tipping him but I expect a big run. The key is the going I think. His best runs/wins have been in a bog and the ground for all his handicap runs to date may have been too lively. He comes here fit and in form and may well appreciate the softer going. The inexperience of the jockey is a mild concern but this one could give him his first winner. He has placed on half his rides to date. Handsome Sam … well I won’t go mad on him but with my ‘systems brain/bank’ there is certainly no need not to back him. Sheppard can ready them after a break, he is unexposed over fences, and may relish conditions. I can’t think many horses improve for leaving Alan King and there is the fitness question. He is also ‘only’ 0/22,4p with horses first time up from other yards. So, he doesn’t improve them straight off the bat but it is a small enough sample, and the 4 places give you hope. At 16s I couldn’t leave him and he carries some of my money. The market can guide…not in terms of odds as such, but whether he drifts markedly from his morning price. If he hovers around 16s I’ll live in hope that we may get a run for our money.

I’ve probably put the mockers on the lot but fingers crossed there is at least one winner in that lot.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TTP 2 Year Stats (TEST)

2.35 hexham – Beyondtemptation (hncp hurdles) ES G3 20/1 UP

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update:Advised Strategies (links in Key have been updated) 

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (all Jumps now): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 8/67,23p, -16.5 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 6/48, -5.5 

NOTES: 1/8, -4

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Thoughts

  • I should probably record a ‘short’ video on results to date, some losing runs, and where the advised strategies are at. Maybe come the end of November. That will be the half-way point roughly, for many of the new trialists that jumped aboard. 
  • I will touch on ‘losers’, and losing runs, on the back of a handful of emails I received, including one who has left a week shy of the halfway point of their trial, citing ‘long losing runs’.  If you back all of the strategies combined, or even just a select handful, systematically – there WILL BE SOME HEFTY LOSING RUNS –  I have tried to hammer home that point, especially in some of the videos in the welcome info link in the Key above. Profit is most important and unless you go to the top end of the market, and find an approach that has a consistent 30%+ win sr, there will always be long losing runs. (there may be such approaches about) Ultimately it is about long term profit and enjoyment. 
  • I am aware this approach is not for everyone (esp the systematic nature of the advised strategies), hence the extended trial. My eyes are always fixed on long term profit and I make no apology for that. But the advised strategies are meant to give you options, especially if you do not like hefty losing runs. A live example, which was emailed in from one of you…
  • From 1st October to 27th backing all advised strategies, just once, made approx +76 points. (1 point win bets) I believe from the 27th October to 16th November, backing all just once, they then lost 57.52 points. From the 17th/18th/19th they ‘clawed back’ 12.5 or so points. 
  • The total since the start of October is approx +32 points. (if backing all strategies just once) In around 7 weeks that is nearly an average of +5 points a week for the Jumps stats. That may not seem a lot but it adds up over a year. If it is sustained. Some context…
  • ALL Jumps Strategies combined are on a total of +495 points for 2017 to date. (+224 on the Flat) That is simply each strategy added up so includes multiple qualifiers. 
  • Since September 1st, all Jumps strategies are on approx +121.75 points. My ‘notes’ (‘tips’) have added an extra +120 in that period…
    • S1 (+34, +36 BFSP) S2 (+65) S3 (-23.75) S3A (+16.5) S4 (+25) S5 (+5, +15 BFSP)
  • Most of the strategies operate around a 10-20% win SR. That means there will be maximum losing runs, per strategy, of between 31-66, from time to time. They will happen. It is painful if a few come at once, or if you start at the beginning of one of those runs. With any luck the profits in 2017 to date may give you some hope, as they do from Sept 1st. But, there are options…
  • If you do not like long losing runs that is fine. That is the point of the options and picking an approach that suits you…. in that scenario I would strongly recommend focusing on 1-3 advised strategies to back systematically. I would recommend dropping S2 …. that is a 10% win SR and will have, and has had, hefty losing runs. (-24 last week) 30-66 will happen, and often enough. And many in the 10-20 range,as will all approaches. It is a lot of qualifiers also and does not suit all betting mentalities. . If you just wanted to focus on 1 strategy for Jumps, I would say S1.  If you wanted a much more focused strategy, S4 is looking decent. S5 should continue to tick along but that is a 10% win SR, so will have losing runs up to 66 or so, every now and then. Those strategies based on ratings pointers (the red symbols) should give you more confidence that they will keep repeating over time.  As always everything is under review to see if any approach can be improved. 
  • The information is there in the Key (and the various links) to absorb and do what is best for you. You may pick another strategy. S3 is starting to cause me some mild concern, but S3A has had a good start. We shall see if it is sustained. There is much profit to be mined, over time, on these pages, if you are willing to work out the best approach for you. And that will take time. And none of us will back every decent priced winner. Being happy with personal progress is the main goal.  
  • My only hope is that you all find a way forward,  whereby you may approach all content in a way that you find enjoyable/profitable over time. If you are just going to follow some systems then fair enough. But take your time in finding the right systematic approach for you. I suppose I always like the idea of members’ using any systematic approach as the foundation, and then applying their own subjective views to content to try and add to the profits and increase engagement/satisfaction. This club is more than just the advised strategies but it is right that ultimately, that is what success should be judged on. 
  • I have said it before but the daily members’ posts are the starting point for my own punting, day to day. If I cannot use my own content to make it pay over time then I would doubt my own ability to make racing work for me in the long run. 
  • The purpose of these bullet points is because I don’t want any of what I’ve said above to be a surprise. I don’t want a losing run of 57, with an approach that has a win % between 10-20% to be a shock. It shouldn’t be. Esp if you are following a collection of strategies. And given it’s my job to explain such things, that rests at my door. I have touched on all of that before in the Welcome Info post in the key, esp ‘Video 1’. 
  • I’ll attempt to do a short ‘review’ video come the end of the month. As always questions, constructive criticism, or general points are always welcome, and encouraged. 

 

Josh 

 

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David Peat: Update #5: READ HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. hi josh,i for one have no problem following the srategies,if you have a betting bank and only bet 5% of said bank that should be enough to cover a fairly long losing run and as you say we are in it for the long game.

    1. Hi William…thanks. it is all about choice. I fully understand those who don’t wish to take an approach where such runs are likely, and it is up to me to explain everything as best I can. I would like to think there are enough decent priced winners on these pages to make the game profitable and enjoyable over time, esp to small/recreational stakes- but it’s my job to try and navigate us through that path, or explain the options etc. But, it takes application and patience on all parts, if you want to make it work over time I’m quite convinced you can- and I use myself as that example. Like I said I don’t like the idea of anything on these pages being a negative shock to anyone, esp when it comes to losers! It isn’t for everyone, I know that, but I take it personally if someone doesn’t find a profitable/enjoyable way forward!
      Josh

      1. I think you’re right in principle William, but if you mean you’d bet 5% of your bank on an individual horse, then there’s a big chance that bank will go bust or be whittled away to virtually nothing. From what others have said, I would have thought you need to be aiming to have a bank of 200+ points (or be betting closer to 1% a time rather than 5%) if you’re following a couple of the strategies to feel safe that a couple of bad runs won’t bust your bank.

  2. Hi Josh.
    Just my thoughts. I am backing every strategy qualifier (multiple times if they qualify), yes it’s a bit of a bad run at the moment but I have the bank to continue and hopefully the good run will come again soon enough. I’m not too concerned, the results show over time that the good runs will negate the bad runs, the people giving it up I take must not have the proper bank to sustain their betting. If people are worried about long losing runs then how about doing the horses each way? Surely then you are reducing them loses, and at them odds we do wouldn’t be such a bad return on a placed horse. What are your thoughts on this Josh?(even though I know you’re a strictly ‘on the nose’ punter.

    Cheers.

    1. Hi Matt,
      Yep EW is an option I think. I am mainly an ‘on the nose’ punter as I am a true believer that the true test of any approach is the results to 1 point win bets. It is the fairest way to assess whether an approach works or not. My ‘always have at least 1 point on the nose’ attitude in part comes from an assessment of my own free tips a while back which showed me that betting 1 point win was so much more profitable than 1/2 EW, which I had been doing. I think there was around a 60 points difference in the period I looked at, and that stuck with me. The other point is that I have often heard that bookies don’t really like EW punters, and I suppose I was loathed to recommend an approach that a) may be less profitable or b) more likely to get accounts closed over time! That is more of a consideration that lurks in the background, and in truth i’m not sure if it is true or not, as it is only anecdotal experience.

      From some analysis I have done, esp those angles that have a 10-16% win sr, no more than a 25% win/place, there isn’t too much difference to profit between the 1 point win versus 1/2 EW approach. There will be much shorter ‘losing’ runs, where you don’t see any return. And actually, them winning less, is irrelevant if you were not backing them anyway, for the reason that win only had uncomfortable losing runs! If you don’t wish to back win only for whatever reason, EW is a good option- if it is going to ensure you follow a strategy and enjoy it more etc. I don’t have detailed figures on EW betting and some of my analysis was earlier in the year. I really should go through S1 and S2, say from start of September, and provide some up to date thoughts.

      Mike has done some work on it below, I’ll get him to email across his thoughts etc. I would always say stick to 1 point win if you are comfortable doing so, but the EW option is there if certain length of losing runs is uncomfortable.

      I should/will come up with some firmer advice/options on such approaches.
      Josh

  3. Hi Josh,

    It seems logical to me that if you are following more than one ‘advised strategy’ then you need a separate bank for each. For the jumps I have 1 x 200pt(S2), 4 x 100pt(S1,3,3a,5) and 1 x 50pt(S4).
    so…..
    2.35 hex at the odds now will get 1 pt from S2 bank and 1pt from S1 bank.
    3.40 ” ” ” 1pt from S3a only
    1.05 war 1pt from S2 only
    2.45 ” ” ” 1pt from S4 only
    3.00 chep 1pt from S2 bank and 1pt from S3a bank
    3.30 ” ” 1pt from S2 bank and 1pt from S1 bank and 1pt from S3 bank

    As the season gets going the pt value will differ for each strategy. If all goes similar to last season you’d expect the S2 bank to be worth more than the rest put together assuming all starting values are equal

    If you only want to follow one strategy to then finance others you need to seriously ask yourself where your ‘comfort zone’ is. S2 had a spell last season of 46 losers, a win @10’s, 8 losers, a win @ 12’s, 14 losers, a win @ 16’s, 42 losers, before a decent run that repaid all losses and went into profit. My S2 profit @ level pt stake was 393 for the season but if I wasn’t prepared to lose that initial bank there would have been some squeaky bum times.

    S1 is probably the way to go as a start if you’re unsure of your nerve and you could maybe think of S2 e/w at odds 16-25 which had easily managed losing runs and returned over 150 pts last season.

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike,
      if you don’t mind/have time at any point, can you email me your EW thoughts/analysis. I know you commented on it the other day also.
      S2 is fine, as an example.
      esp say with that analysis above… with S2
      You made +393 betting 1 point win on all qualifiers I assume, all in 10-25/1 range on morning odds.
      Backing 1/2 point EW 16/1-25/1 won +150…
      Need to add to that the profit to 1 point win in the 10/1-14/1 range.. so see the difference in profit against the win only approach.
      Less profit is irrelevant of course if the ups and downs for S2 (win only) is too much and ensures you don’t back them at all. In that scenario then EW would be the way forward!
      Cheers, Josh

      1. Hi Josh,

        I’ll break my figures down and email you by morning.
        Off the top of my head sp 10-14 is interesting. Probably 2/3rd’s of winners were in that range but will have to check sp v bog.
        Betting e/w at the longer odds over last season was on a par with win only. 154.07 (1/2 pt e/w) and 157 (1 pt win)

        Mike

        1. Hi Mike,
          Thanks for that, no rush!
          That final figure is interesting and actually would suggest EW best to ensure losing runs (no return back) are not too painful! Provided bookies don’t start clamping down.
          Josh

          1. Hi Josh and Mike.

            The figures sound like interesting reading and it may change my mindset a bit on the longer odds ones (16/1>). If the profit it the same then it makes sense to do ew.

            Also another thought Josh, you mentioned the bookies clamping down (possibly) betting ew. What about betting ew on the exchange? I know you won’t always get the price but that way you could bet as long as you’d want to?

            Thanks

          2. Yep, nothing stopping you betting in the place market on the exchange. Again how that would compare to morning odds/bog etc, I have no idea.. may not be much difference in it over the stretch, you’d be able to compare as you go though. There may be a liquidity point – with many bets only matched nearer the off or to place SP maybe, not sure.
            That bookie point is just anecdotal, and as with everything spreading your bets about should help, and as long as you are still betting win only etc, there may not be an issue. Esp to small/starter stakes. If you have the patience to work out best way forward for you it will pay well in the long run 🙂
            Josh

  4. Tomorrow I like the following: (too tired for write ups)

    Beyondtemptation Hexham Wednesday 14:35 1pt e/w
    Sunblazer Kempton Wednesday 19:40 1pt e/w (make sure you get 4 places)

  5. Josh, there are valid excuses for her last two runs (1/21 at Sedgefield so she clearly hates the track and she doesn’t stay 2m7f so less concerned about her well being)

    Nick

    1. We will disagree there on that analysis. She is 1/19,8p in handicap hurdles at Sedgefield, so on that evidence I wouldn’t say she ‘clearly hates’ the track, as those stats would be a lot worse if that were the case. She clearly doesn’t hate the track?? She can run well there, and has, on many occasions. On 7 runs she has finished within 5l of the winner. But she clearly has preference for other venues, mainly Hexham, 6/19,9p. Yep she doesn’t stay 3m so perfect excuse for two runs ago. Given how she has run at Sedge, it isn’t unreasonable to say that last run may have been a bit underwhelming – but she may have had an off day, probably went too hard, hence the fade.
      In any case, given her odds, and how she performs in these conditions, her recent ‘form’ is irrelevant to a point. As is any anguish over ‘well being’ – that is an educated guessing game and is the main reason for always wanting a price.
      She’ll make all. Win by 5l. Job done 🙂

      1. Fair enough that’s probably a little sloppy of me. Brain wasn’t quite there. (I suspect there is a reason why I often have my best days on Sunday) Like you said as long as she bolts up it doesn’t matter.

  6. I am wary of the words ‘valid excuses’ re racehorses in terms of punting and this is where value comes in. You may be able to give horses another go after a negative run or two if the represent value. Where that falls down is getting involved with such horses at say 5/1 or less etc. Another factor horses have to overcome is the jockey riding it well or not so well. A simple example is on the all weather where jockeys situate their horse off the pace then swing into the straight and let it run on too late to have much of a chance.

    Back to horses. They are mostly inconsistent and you have to catch them under optimal conditions if you can.

    Re strategies, you do have to stick with them for a period of time. The hardest part is knowing when to get out? If you give a strategy you need to give it 12 months if you have the bank to do so. But you need confidence in its long term success (profit) and if you do not I would suggest you give it up and move on. Re Josh, he puts his results up and you can judge him on that. Losing streaks are hard but you have to be long term in view. I work on a calendar year and I am always saying to my wife its about peaks and troughs and a year end result that matters.

    1. Morning John – yep I will be… it keeps getting shoved down my to-do list and having been out of the ‘office’ on Monday I am a day behind this week… I want to get it done this week, and will do! It is only a couple hours work I think – I will use the ‘Flat’ profile – experimented with a different approach last winter but I don’t think that did very well, and prob from start of 2015, so nearly three full years. We shall see what that throws up. You’ll get that for free obviously, being a member. I don’t plan to post qualifiers up regularly but the guide will be there to use as you please.
      Josh

  7. The 10/1 for Grand Introduction 2.25 Chepstow is probably a good price point for a FOB/Brennan combo.Bit of an unknown after nearly 2 years of the track.Those that read the Geegees article will note his high completion rate on chasers

  8. 15.30 Chepstow FLAMING CHARMER – I thought last time that the horse stayed well but the trainer is dropping him in trip today although of his wins have come at 2m4f or less.
    Soft/Heavy, -10k races, 1 to 25 days or less (3 wins from 7 runs) when racing at 2m3.5f or less: 6111

    1. Hi David,

      Thanks for the profile on Flaming Charmer.

      I looked at the race and wasn’t going to play. I then read your profile and decided to get involved if I could get matched at 5.1 on Betfair, which I did.

      Won easily at 5/2 sp Thanks again, your work is much appreciated.

      Cheers
      Mark

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