TIPS
none. No c3+ 3m + handicap chases to get stuck into, which is a shame. And I couldn’t lure myself into the C4s
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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<
3.30 Chep – Jayo Time
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
12.55 Hex – Just Minded
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That;s it for today.
Thank you for reading my blog and being part of the Racing to Profit community. As always if you’ve any questions or thoughts, post a comment on today’s blog post or hit the ‘contact Josh’ button to the right hand side. If you’re about to leave the blog, I can’t wait to welcome you back soon.
14 Responses
Very wet weather about and the Going Stick Ratings are very interesting. I have started to refer back to historic stick data as it is much more accurate than a generic “soft” / “heavy” etc. By using the actual readings which are specific to the stick at each Course (they differ wildly so 6.0 at one track will be totally different to 6.0 at another) you can look back to a similar reading, even if having to go back 2-3-4 years to find such reading, and then look at racing that day and pick up any rider/trainer comments.
Finding this particularly helpful to identify “dead/pudding” as opposed to “wet/heavy” etc.
Chepstow has revised to 4.5 H and 4.3 C in past few minutes and that is “Bottomless” looking back 5-6 years would be on cusp of abandonment if significant more rain comes and it is due and with high winds.
Warwick which advertise “Good to Soft” is nothing of the sort according to Going Stick – the Going Stick Reading equates to Soft/Heavy bordering on Heavy – high winds may just come after racing.
Hexham historically is one of the few that does not issue an actual stick reading very often, but is deemed Heavy and I’m told a lot more rain coming in. (Thanks to peterj for that update this morning)
Likely to be a lot of non runners and watch for some if they have to close the Seven Bridges at Chepstow too!
NH is back! love it!”
Thanks for the post Ian but where abouts can you get access to the historical data to compare?
But what if they do not have all the same stick? My experience of ground conditions is the only way you really know is to walk the course yourself or have someone do it who you know you can rely on. I remember going to a talk Tony Bloom gave and he used to send his guys to course to walk them and report back before having a bet. I know we cannot do that but I am just making the point to exaggerate the point.
Watching the racing every day on TV you can judge ground conditions by watching the first race or so at a meeting.
A very good point Martin and precisely why I’m trying to find an angle.
Every Course has a different method but are obliged from what I can tell to notify IF they change the method.
Racing can learn a lot from Golf in this respect where they measure green speeds using pretty standard equipment. Racing verges from a stick with marking on it, to a few a bit more sophisticated to some a stick with no markings and just a C of C interpretation. That’s why I make the point that a reading of 6.0 can mean totally different things at 2 tracks that may only be 30 miles apart.
So the project/logic is to obtain specific Going stick data from every Course over the past decade so you are them measuring like for like Course specific. So as an example you find a reading of 5.0 at Fakenham – go back and find last couple of occasions when Fakenham was 5.0. Go and watch racing from that day (not difficult to find on various platforms) and also go and research Trainer/Jockey comments from that day (again not hard to find if you have time and resource).
So you build an idea Course by Course of actual Going. So far every assessment in a small sample has been spot on and far more accurate than general “description” of soft.
The real angle I’m trying to find is the differentiation using the stick between sloppy wet heavy and dead/pudding and again – early indications are that using a very specific stick reading and “comments” you can more accurately predict.
The other angle to then add is weather between stick reading and off time and assessing that.
It may or may pay off but if it gleans a few more big priced winners has to be worth it.
The other major beef I have, that we are also looking deeply at is “rail changes” some days at some tracks a circuit can be 100-200 yards longer than advertised due to rail changes (rarely if ever works the other way). So in a 3 mile plus race it can add 1-2 furlongs to the race. Some tracks are so often doing this that we now add 10% to the race distance as part of the form study.
Worst examples are Courses who advertise 2 miles 7 furlongs 100 yards, so the mindset says 3 miles experience, and you then find runners are running 3 miles 2 furlongs round the rail and more if running off the rail – that’s why we have added the 10% and it is another angle that in terms of form analysis can and does pay off – often enough to make it a big asset.
As a tipping service delivering tips 4-5-6 hours before racing the “watching the first race” idea is great but impractical but again we are considering sms type angles to pick up late tips/runners.
I quite understand some/any saying “this is OTT” but my mindset has always been that if you are offering a paid service you have to go the extra mile, never stop working hard, never stop looking for new angles to help find more profit. Some will work; some won’t but people deserve the best value for money, so we keep digging and keep trying.
This is NOT a sales pitch, not intended to be but more an explanation of what I think too many fail to address/consider when charging you for tips, my view is if we fail at least no one can say we haven’t tried!
I have massive respect for the purely statistical angle Josh is the market leader in, this (what we are doing) is a much more old fashioned form based analysis horse by horse, but that does not mean we can’t use new technology to help us and to add to our form analysis. The icing n the cake if you like.
Regards!
Very interesting Ian re the going stick variations between courses
if you produce a chart that describes the going for each course re their
stick returns as I think it will be a very helpful tool.
Rain on the day I found was the biggest variable
as the course would often give the ground as good to soft
and by the first race if was soft and by the last it was bottomless
and massively churned up by the previous races.
When I was betting with larger stakes
I always rang up the course about a hour before racing
and stated that I was coming racing at their track and got chatting I asked if I would need an umbrella
and if had been raining a lot during the morning.
I had great success backing heavy ground horses in later races on the card
when the morning report stated good to soft
and when I rang at 12 am they told me to bring my brolly and it had been raining all morning
and didn’t look like stopping
by the 5th and 6th race it had become a real heavy ground horse bonanza
and because it was g/s to start there were less non runners.
didn’t even have to risk much as would back heavy ground horses in the circumstances
at 12am and when it become obvious that the ground was bottomless by the 4th race
then they could be laid off at much shorter prices.
The perfect horse when the ground go bottomless from g/s is one that has two wins on heavy ground
a recent run within 7lengths of the winner
and have 11st 5lbs or less to carry
Cant see any of those today
but Auenwirbel catches the eye winner of three Auteuil hurdles on bottomless ground has done nothing since coming here but chase debut today and has his ground for the first time in ages
if they have him remotely fit will go close at a big price
has had 59 days off which could either be down to a problem or they could have been
getting him fit at home waiting for bottomless conditions.
I find it difficult to accept that in this day n age with technology as it is that there is not a more standard, accurate and consistent method brought in to advise ground conditions at a racecourse.
How can different courses have different methods of measurement….It boggles the mind!?
It’s an absolute key piece of info that should be provided on a far more accurate scale to the general public.
Take Cheltenham on Fri, it was stated officially G/S it was clear to the naked eye after the first it was far closer to soft and rode sticky & looked hard work with a lot finishing out on the feet. The time was over 30 secs above standard also.
I could be wrong but the going at Cheltenham was not amended officially until the Sat after torrential rain over night.
There should be a requirement for clerks to issue going updates after each race and hourly over the course of the morning.
Matt on Geegee has been banging the drum for a while about getting a more accurate description table for tyres of ground.
Here in Irl we have yielding which gives a bit more info but could still be further improved for accuracy.
The BHA appeased many with new requirement for wind ops to be disclosed which will have minimal long term benefits to punters. An overhaul of how racecourse information is measured and communicated would far more beneficial to everyday punters. It would also help provide a more transparent perception of the sport to the general public.
Peter
Nice one.
Thought about EW double with Cailleach Annie, also 3rd 16/1.
Lost my nerve!
Edmund Brooke
Ian@sp2a
Your selection today is in the 3.30 Chepstow not the 3.00 you have on line.
Mike
Mickey – thanks – yep, it is actually correct online but was incorrect in the initial header on the e-mail (sorry) but several references to the 3.30 in the explanation. Not enough Yorkshire Tea early this morning!! It is I can confirm in the 3.30pm –
Nick – I have obtained the data from a 3rd Party who I have paid exclusively for the info. It may be available in the public domain for free (not sure) elsewhere but if it is I’ve not seen it.
The person is doing a lot of statistical analysis; on things that may not be available elsewhere in a usable format like Going Stick analysis and P2P form for me; and spending hours and hours on it. It is not stuff that is not “out there” but the plan is to compile it in to usable and helpful research/resource to aid our Tipsters and understanding.
It is planned to be a bit of a “usp” for us; to add in to the existing offering; so at this stage I’m unable to pass on any specific info. It is something we wish to expand on in the New Year on Flat and Jumps, and would then be free/gratis to anyone with us. Sorry can’t be more helpful at this point.
The archived going stick readings are freely available on the turftrax web site
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_stick_archive.html
no e/w races that fit the bill as good selections today
Race to watch 1.30 Hexham
2 mile novice hurdle.
with a short price favourite and only 11 runners
at first glance it looks a fair e/w race but after a closer look
there are at least five horses battling for the places.
ECHO EXPRESS
he won a bumper at a grade1 track(Doncaster)
and was only beaten a nose on his hurdle debut at Kelso
form solid but not spectacular.
The Dubai Way hurdles debut today but won a bumper at Ffos Las
on soft ground which bodes well for a former P2p winner over 3 miles
Hexham is a stiff course and on todays heavy ground is a real stamina test
so his ability to get 3 miles is a plus.
His trainer sends the horse all the way from Oxfordshire to take in this race
A long journey signals intent but can also be a negative if the horse
gets wound up on the journey
The prices on these two are to short for win and e/w bets as neither has run at the course on heavy ground and neither brings winning hurdles form to the race
The next step is to look for possible e/w shoo ins but
there are more than one possible contender
Le Frank was third in a Newcastle bumper on heavy ground so we know he handles the conditions
and his trainer Lucinda Russell was gushing in her praise of him in her recent stable tour
piece.
The horse is by Kings Theatre and of a Bob Back mare so is certainly bred for the job
but on the negative side he was beaten 14 lengths in a 6 horse race despite cantering on the bit with 4 furlongs left.
Either he wasn’t fully fit that day or he needs more time if it was a fitness issue then he will come close to winning today.
if he needs more time then he could fade right out the equation
either way he isn’t a banker place bet when you add the fact that it is his
first look at hurdles in public.
Teescomponets Lad was placed in three bumpers two over c/d on heavy ground
so we know he handles the track and conditions
but only a 4 year old so not fully mature and with hurdles now in the equation
guessing if you were to go banker reaching the first three
Baraculu who beat him in one of those Hexham bumpers did nothing for the form when tailed off on hurdles debut.
The Delray Monkey was well held by Echo Express last time at Kelso but that was on good ground
todays heavy conditions are very different and his previous 2nd in a Maiden hurdle at Kelso
on soft ground looks more of an indictor to her ability that last time out.
Very stoutly bred today test will be more to her liking so with5 possible contenders for win and place
no e/w play can be advised
But certainly a race to watch as several horse are bred for much longer trips
and horses jumping well and plugging on regardless of final position
are worth noting when they step up in trip.
My Guess with plenty of 3 mile horses in the race one of then will go a decent pace to test any doubtful fitness or suspect stamina
Football alert
Benfica travel to freezing Moscow tonight
and while that look out of it in the group
in theory if results went for them they could nick third and qualify for
Europa league and if a very unlikely set of result came up
could even finish second
so it will be interesting to see who they put out tonight
I have no interest in the result of tonights match
but feel if they send their best xi out tonight
they could be well below their best on Sunday when they play Setubal at home in the portugese league
in normal circumstances they would be true long odds on shots to win
but I think they may be well shorter than they should be and bets on Setubal and the draw could be value
we will have to wait and see who they field for tonights match
and the prices on the Benfica Setubal match on Sunday
but could nick a big value bet
just had a look at one firm(sunbets)
and they go 1/5 Benfica
11/2 draw
14/1 Setubal
so will be very keen to take on Benfica at those prices(or better) if their first team play
tonight after a marathon round trip to Moscow
to play in sub zero conditions
CSKA are no world beaters but Benfica wont like the cold weather or the pitch. Cant go in at 23/20 though. Man U should be able to best Basel with their first team out this evening at evens.