Members Daily Post: 16/11/17 (complete)

Section 1, Test Zone, updates/messages…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Taunton

2.05 – Love The Leader (m1) 16/1 S2 UP

2.35 – Canicallyouback (hncp hurdle) ES H1  9/1 S3 UP

3.10 –

G For Ginger (hncp hurdle) H3 7/2

Mac Bella (hncp hurdle) ES 15/2 S3 UP

4.10 – Ring Ding Ding (hncp hurdle) 11/8 UP

 

Ludlow

3.30 –

Cernunnos (hncp chase) ES+I1 12/1  S3A, S5  UP

Petite Power (m1) 14,30 I3 G1  3/1  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 12th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 12th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/135, +121.5)

 

None today. None of that list above ticking my own boxes for ‘notes’ purposes, or looked overly appealing at the prices to my subjective eyes.

As always my job isn’t to put you off anything in section 1, so use this info as you please… but i thought you may find it interesting…when looking through them all, and Love The Leader in particular… I did note how he is now 0/15,0p without headgear on (0/12,0p in handicaps), all wins when wearing CP… 4/10,6p, 4/8,4p when sent off 6/1 or shorter. I have added him to my tracker… awaiting the day the headgear returns/more prominent in market. That may be the time to be more confident. He does tick race conditions today and drops in class. Just a question of his well being I think, but you never know.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds)

1.25 Lud – Silk Run

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

RTP Tipping League… well it looks like 150+ of you would seriously engage in such a thing which is good news and as such is worth doing. I will investigate options with the hope of having something set up from the end of next week. If I need any info etc I will let you know. With any luck we can get practising before November is out and then start properly from the beginning of December.

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Blessed To Empress… an exciting week ahead for all things White Diamond Racing… this horse runs in the 6.25 at Chelmsford… IF she runs her race/up to her best, she will win this. It is as simple as that. She drops in class here. It is an IF with her…she can play up pre race, nothing major, but can be a nuisance in the stalls. She has her own ideas. She missed the break the last day and would have won in our minds if a gap had appeared up the rail. I think she has 6lb+ in hand. The jockey has been booked quite deliberately due to his stats at the track over 5-6f, and with two year olds here. The guys who run the syndicate do like their stats (good on them!) and in Amy we have a trainer who is always willing to listen to suggestions. I just hope she breaks on terms, gets out and gets a position. That may be leading, it may be sitting off anyone who wishes to take her on. She has now learnt how to race and settle in behind horses- well she gave that impression LTO. So, being held up isn’t the end of the world. In truth i’d be disappointed if she doesn’t win, provided she settles, runs her race and gets luck in running. She is short enough so I won’t be encouraging you to wade in. The trainer is happy with here. There is nothing sinister with the 51 days off, simply a case of waiting for the right race, which is tricky at this time of year. Fingers crossed. 

Really Super… the second and final horse I have shares in, will be running at Leicester on Monday, all being well. I will be heading to the track to enjoy the experience. (and with this group it is always good fun, a diverse bunch and always plenty of laughter. And lots of bubbles, win, lose or draw) The horse that beat us at Fakenham, Cubswin, is 13/8 for the Ludlow Juvenile Hurdle… with any luck she can bolt up in that to boost confidence. At this stage we have no idea how good ‘Super’ could be but it was a promising start. I think she will appreciate a more galloping track and stiffer climb to the line. But time will tell. She will win races, even if it’s the Ebor Handicap next Summer!! 🙂 (or some black type, that would be welcome) Much fun to be had with her.

Some sad news… this is a cruel game at times. I once had a share in a horse called Bien Faire, via Geegeez/Anthony Honeyball. Sadly he had to be put down last night. He was lightly raced for us and was just starting to show something when rupturing a tendon in a hurdles race. That was the end of his racing career. Thankfully he was saved, albeit it was touch and go. He had spent the last two years or so at the Moorcroft charity and appears to have been loved by everyone. Last night, all alone in his own stable box, he somehow ruptured the tendon on his ‘good’ leg, as well as striking into his bad leg. They had no option but to put him down. That always leaves a sour taste, but he was looked after like a king in his short time with AJH, as he was at Moorcroft, and at least had two very happy years enjoying himself. He will be missed down there. Another reminder of the dangers in this game and why you should never look too far ahead in racing. You have to enjoy the here and now.

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RESULTS SPREADSHEET

On Tuesday Mark asked whether anyone had a spreadsheet he could use for recording results. I have stolen the below from a friend and edited it accordingly. Hopefully it makes sense.

GRAB YOUR SPREADSHEET HERE>>>> (it should download when clicking the green link)

Below you can find a video of me talking through it. You can edit it and use it as you see fit. If you are better with excel than I am and can improve it, by all means do and email me your work! I didn’t want it overly complicated and I think this does the trick. Let me know what you think…

 

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Finally…

 

Cheltenham November Meeting

Trainer Stats/Pointers / Handicap Micros x2 : READ HERE>>>

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. 15.40 Taunton
    THEATRICAL STAR – Class 3 and below, 1 to 11 runners, 8 to 45 days, Fig 8/RH track – 2P211111.
    The horse has not had his conditions for a long time but this is a lot easier than some of the races he has been contesting. His jumping is not always the best but I hope in this lower class race it is not put under so much pressure.

    SPORTING BOY – RH track, good or GTS, Class 3 and below, 13 runners or less, 45 days or less – 1118F1141
    Ran better than finishing position suggests at Cheltenham last time and back down in distance and on a RH track should run well again.

    The dangers are the unexposed chasers Monsieur Co and Resolution Bay. Mon Co scoped dirty on his last run and is switched to fences today – he did win and finish 2nd in two runs in France over the larger obstacles. Resolution Bay is stepped up in trip today on only his second start. If either horse won I would not be suprised and they could turn out to be useful horses as both profile horses are decent handicappers.

  2. I see that Jamie Codd is over a day early for Cheltenham and rides Mullaghmurphy Blue in the 3.00 Lud for Jim Dreaper. The 5/2 went last night and is now trading 7/4. I hear a good word for Daily Trader, 3.20 Sou, for the David Evans stable, 16/1. Not much else at present that stands out.

  3. MP asked about e/w returns yesterday and it made a quite interesting exercise.

    Using the S2 strategy from 3/10/16 to 29/4/17 and betting on odds 16-25 e/w at BOG would have returned 154.075 pts from 252 bets with a place s/r of 27%. There was one losing run of 26 but that was in part due to me cocking up as it was right at the beginning of me getting my head round the stats and I missed the odd one as I was taking bog the night before and didn’t have the benefit of cross-checking with Josh’s quals. Nor was I keeping an eye out for drifters. (very important if not using bfsp). Other than that 26er the longest losing run was under 10.

    In the same period, betting win only would have netted 157 pts from 17 winners. So you can ignore my closing statement yesterday of win only probably the way to go.

    Backing S2 quals 10-25/1 to win netted 393 pts from 622 bets.

    A couple of personal points I should make:

    If I couldn’t regularly check the market I would probably set and forget at bfsp. I don’t know if that would work in the place market though.
    I lost or had severely restricted a/c’s (including removal of bog) with All major bookies when only backing e/w at big odds. (this was before I started my re-education here)
    Although bfsp returns can be greatly enhanced (especially at larger odds), you will miss some early quals/ steamers by not using bog. Maybe a split bank is the ideal?

    GL , however you play
    Mike

  4. hi josh ,bit confused re your free reports why and how are they very different from the members area ?getting kinda lost on here with members area selections and different selections on the free post

    1. Hi Charles,

      Always a good question 🙂

      The free post… I ‘tip’ in 3m+ handicap chases, C3 or higher, sometimes C4… I always have done on the free posts since I started the blog, and they are the only race type I attack ‘cold’ – in essence opening up a race and testing my puzzle solving skills. That is simply my subjective take on said race. Using my own approach.

      The members posts…

      Clearly noting to do with those free tips, and are very different. The two in the 3.30 qualify against my stats packs, hence they are posted above.

      When looking through that chase, for ‘tipping purposes’ i discounted those two for one reason or another. As simple as that.

      It is all about separation/different ‘banks’ I suppose.

      If you follow the free tips, you follow them (+90 odd points up this year), or you don’t.

      Likewise if you follow the advised strategies in this members post, you follow them. If you back S3A and/or S5 systematically, you won’t take note of any of my subjective analysis in the free post. It shouldn’t be a consideration if you are a systematic backer. (of course there is nothing to say you wouldn’t have a different approach to staking.. ie you could always put X on a system bet, but if more confident, take a stronger view on a horse, nothing stopping you betting more. All about finding an approach that you enjoy etc)

      Treat them as two separate entities, as with everything on here, to use/read/ignore as you please.

      Hope that makes sense. Subjective analysis plays no role in determining what horse gets posted in section 1. If they hit my trainer stats, they qualify, they are posted, and then work out if they hit any advised strategies.

      Josh

      p.s if you have yet to watch the main intro video that talks through the content on this page, where it comes from, what it is etc, I would do so.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbKwoT1EJik&feature=youtu.be Hopefully helps if any confusion as to this page.

  5. Josh, just saw you on Racing UK tipping via video! Some right old dodgy tips given by some of the contributors. PS what were you wearing?

    1. haha, it was awful, a first attempt… I have no idea… my Many Clouds scarf for good luck. Luckily I think the quality of the tips is only one element of the judging! …I’m quietly confident at some point in next few years I could make the final shortlist of 6 for a fun day out..i’ll try and improve this week. I’ve trimmed the beard since then, scruffy bugger.
      Some would improve their chances by trying to be a tad enthusiastic! But it is hard in 30 seconds, esp for me, I always lack brevity.

      1. Perhaps next time sing the tip as a Christmas Carol. Nice pick with Happy Chappy (Sounds like the local Chinese), nice SP.

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