3.30 Ludlow – The Happy Chappy – 1 point win –
13/2 7/1 (general) WON 10/1 2017 Total: 17/155, +102.5
13/2 seems a couple of points too big to my eyes. This unexposed chaser is in the ‘could be anything’ category, which as always could include ‘could not be good enough’ for today’s assignment. But, he hasn’t done anything wrong and you suspect if he was trained by Fergal O’Brien say, he may be half this price. This is quite a tight handicap where you could give a chance to most, and if some of those who are seemingly out of form bounce back to life, it could be very competitive. I don’t need to worry about his form, well-being, or fitness. Having watched his last race he is a superb jumper and with any luck that can take him far. It also looks like he has a turn of gears which is no bad thing around here. He races prominently the last day and I hope Schofield is aggressive with him. It may transpire that he isn’t good enough come the business end but he won’t lack for stamina. Just a class/ability question, but on what he has done you can’t say he won’t be good enough. In that scenario you want a price and in the context of this race I thought 13/2 was fair. I should get a run for my money, at least until a few from home. Clearly there are questions as to how good that last race was, and it was run at a crawl for the most part, but to a point I am guessing. He is entitled to line up here and he should run his race. Worth a go for me.
Pace…well he will be up there. Miami Present can lead but again has been doing so in small fields, and Aunty Ann can be up there. Caulfields V can but he never went a yard the last day and has younger legs to contend with here. And maybe Paddy B will be more aggressive on Petite Power.
Petite Power…caught the eye the last day and is entitled to go very close here. He is unexposed over extended trip, the headgear returns, and he arrives fit and in form. I do wonder if he will be able to hold his position around here and whether he may get out-paced at a crucial stage. If he does’t then he will go very close. But at 3s it was easy enough in my own mind to leave him. Were he 6s+ then a different story. Clearly not a shock winner.
Cernunnos hits a couple of my Members’ Club strategies (Tom George Handicap Chasers here the starting point) and maybe he could bounce back from the last day. My head says no but something is nagging at me. He is inconsistent and in truth looks a C4 animal at best over fences. He can race a bit far back and you just don’t know what you will get. I think the ground may have gone against him the last day, or was an odd kind of going. And he may well prefer a flatter track. He has bits and pieces of form that may give him a chance and any George chaser here should be feared. He wasn’t ticking enough boxes for me to ‘tip’ him though and in general I don’t like wading in with seemingly out of form chasers. Always exceptions though.
Aunty Ann is interesting enough… she relished the step up the last day but Worcester doesn’t take too much jumping, the cut in the ground is a slight niggle, as is going RH which is an unknown over fences. Over hurdles she tended to jumps out to the left on the odd occasion. 10s may be fair but for one reason or another I wasn’t convinced. Her jumping wasn’t as good as the selection the last day for me either. We know what happens now!!
By The Boardwalk may go well.. he was just a bit too poor the last day for me but maybe he needed the run. The yard is going well. I just thought he was open to anything with more in hand/open to progress, and there are a few of those in here. If they all turn out to be moderate he could have a say. Some of his placed form may be good enough. That last run niggles at me though and he can be out-battled in a finish. He is also a hold up horse so always needs a bit of luck. I talked myself out of him.
Right I think that will do, for fear of going through the whole field. I am happy with the selection and wasn’t overly keen to be on anything else. We shall see if I have that right.
If he runs as well as yesterday’s second I won’t have any complaints, but going one place better would be welcome!
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.10 Taunt – Mac Bella (12/1< guide, 16/1 winner yesterday)
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