1.45 Bangor – ACTINPIECES – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) 2nd 5/1… no complaints there, run a decent race and when hitting the front I thought may stay there. One of the main dangers wins, no shock there..shame he took back to chasing so well! Decent run for my money, got the price. Moving on. Nice for one to run well!
I am sat here scratching my head as to how the hell this one is 8/1. I can’t work out why she is twice the price of the Skelton horse who may get a fright from these rather bigger hurdles! Albeit he is entitled to run his race but 4s seems short. He could win. Anyway, back to the selection…as always it is about price and she is the one that leaps off the page as being too big here. She arrives in form having won well LTO, is unexposed enough in handicap chases (2/4), does have a touch of class (a neck second in a C1 Novice hurdle at Cheltenham,April meeting), stays, soft is no problem, and is generally consistent. And she is fit. The price is just wrong. Often when this happens I have probably missed something but in terms of analysing her chance against race conditions, the oppo and in the context of her price, I don’t think I have. She can be held up or race prominently and I hope they pick the latter. There is a bit of pace to aim at which I think should fold. We picked Valadom to win this last year who made all as expected, but I don’t think there is a make all winner lurking today. We shall see.
Of the rest… well clearly Potters Legend or the Tom George horse can/maybe will, win this. But there is no value in their prices to my eyes. The former looks as though he has a nice chase or two in him and maybe this is his year. He is usually held up out the back and he may get out-paced/hit the odd fence. I won’t be shocked if he wins this well but at 3s or so I can leave him. I backed him a couple of times last year I think when ‘running on’ late…he probably should have gone closer at the Festival. The George horse is inexperienced and his yard has been threatening to kick into gear for a couple of weeks. If this one is fit he is entitled to go well, but he will need to step up. This is no small field C3 novice handicap chase. Again, I won’t fall off my seat if he wins but his price isn’t generous enough for me given the odd question (will he be fit, how will he handle this environment…were he 6s+, a different story) Sir Mangan is interesting but not at 4s. He has been hurdling a little while and a chance he is ponderous at his fences. I generally don’t like backing chasers who have been hurdling for a time or vice versa. But, he has chase form in the book which entitles him to have a say and team Skelton could run the yard cat at the moment and it would win.
I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another.
8s seems an insult to the chances of Actinpieces. So, that’s the play.
GL if you follow me in!
That’s the lot on the ‘tipping’ front.
H Fry Mares (10/1< best)
3.35 Exet – Rosemary Russet
Pam Sly (any odds)
1.45 Bang – Actinpieces
Tom George Chasers (any odds)
12.40 Bang – Agamemmon UP
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1 or shorter)
12.40 Bang – Jayo Time DNQ
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
12.40 Bang – Just Geordie (12/1<) 2nd
1.45 Bang – Straidnahanna (12/1<)
12.50 Exet – Present Times (12/1< guide) WON 16/1 (26.00 BFSP)
1.25 Exet – The Gipper (12/1< guide)
That’s the lot for today.