Members Daily Post: 14/11/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

1.30 –

Rolling Dylan (all hncps) 14 ES 5/1 S3 WON 5/1>4/1 

Little Jon (all hncps) 14,30  ES  I3 G1  7/1 S3   UP

Perfect Timing (all hncps + micro 90 days) H3 I3  5/1   UP 

2.30 –

Arthurs Gift (all hncps) 14,30  ES H3 I3  G1 2/1  S3 S4   WON 2/1> Evens 

Hadfield (hncp hurdle) ES 11/2  S3   3rd 7/1 

Degooch (hncp hurdle) H3 I1 7/1  S5   UP  12/1 

3.00-

Rainy Day Dylan (nov hncp) 7/2 UP

Goodgirlteresa (nov hncps) G3 11/1  S1 S2  2nd 20/1 

3.30 –

Green Or Black (hncp hurdle) ES H3 I3 G3 6/4  S3 S4  2nd Evens 

Ginger Fizz (micro dist) H1 I3 G1 6/1   S4  UP 

JUMPS

Huntingdon

2.10 – East Indies (hncp hurdle) ES G3 18/1 S1 S2  UP

2.40 – Darebin (nov hncps) H1 I1 G1 Evens S4 UP

3.40 – My Boy Sam (NHF) 5/2 2nd 

*

NOTES

2.30 Worc  – Degooch – UP...market told story this time sadly.  he has gone to 8s across the board as I have been pondering and that is enough for me to wade in. I won’t be shocked if he hits the magic 11.00+ BFSP and becomes a strategy 5 qualifier that way- albeit i’m not sure a drift will be a good sign with him but you never know. Any geegeez users out there may see why he peaked my interest when using the ‘instant expert’ tab.. a solid line of green/amber across the board for going/class/track/distance/field size… he has been running in chases plenty recently but the hurdles here are more of the ‘fixed brush’ variety than regular hurdles and to the horse probably look like mini fences! They can take some jumping. That is a concern but at the prices I will take a chance. He has yet to win a handicap hurdle after 5 attempts but this is his first go for connections with his new headgear combo of blinkers+tongue tie, which seems to have made some sort of difference. He is a ‘been there and done it’ horse who comes here on a nice mark compared to his chase form. He is doing a few things different also… return to hurdles/down in class/up in trip/new jockey… he comes here fit and in form. That Wetherby run was decent given it was an inadequate trip and he was visibly out-paced in the latter stages. He ran as if he was still in ok form. There are a few front runners in this and hopefully it may set up for a closer. He does strike me as being a bit tricky, he wins on his terms I suspect. It may be a negative that the jockey doesn’t know him, but at 8s I couldn’t resist. That seems big to my dodgy ‘jumps notes’ eyes (still a bit rusty…certainly compared to my flat eyes..what a strange turn of events!!…May can’t come soon enough…! :)…. I jest).

I should add I have backed Hadfield at 6s with my ‘ES/Strategy’ head on, and with any luck one of them wins. Arthurs Gift is a main danger but at 2/1, with two other nice priced quals in the race, it was an easy enough decision to leave him, as most strategy quals are under 7/2 for me. But, if you are going to back a shorty, being an S4/treble rated, makes it more acceptable. One of those three, or probably the McCain horse, takes this I suspect and I thought it looked the most intriguing race on the day from the list above.

Oborne Lady is being backed which may be significant, Mullins and Lavelle the only two trainers in that with Lingfield NHF wins in the last 2 years. I’ve no doubt backing all of Mullins NHF runners here over time will see any backers in clover. This seems to be where he sends the good ones and she looks interesting on paper. I may have had a nibble although I am starting to feel a bit out of form. A week is a long time in this game.

GL with any bets, as always.

*

An Idea… A Racing To Profit ‘Tipping League’…

This idea is in the early stages of development but I wondered if there was any appetite for a private RTP tipping league, members only. I can set up a private league via Betref I think. I thought it may be good fun but I won’t bother if there isn’t a fair bit of interest. I know Geegeez has one, with around 100 regular players I think. There could be monthly prizes (prob cash, £25-£50, maybe) of sorts, with an expectation that you would put up a minimum of 20 ‘naps’ per month say. There could be one winner for most points profit, another for best ROI, as an example. 6 monthly winners could get a year’s free access to the Members’ Club maybe. I am thinking out loud here. Anyway, the poll below is just to test interest… please think about it, and whether you would genuinely participate and play regularly. There won’t be any restrictions on what you can tip on etc. If that sounds of interest to you, vote below… (only vote once please) (winning is really about prestige!)

[poll id=”22″]

**

Thoughts…

Another week of fine margins, with the Barnes horse at Hexham (8s) and the King horse yesterday (10s) looking like that may have gone very close but for both tipping up. I’m pretty sure the Barnes horse would have gone on to win, not so certain on Kings. But, that’s racing for you. Another week that could have been a +9, or +20 to that ‘backing once’ total, and suddenly it looks decent enough. It is still nagging at me that we haven’t had a total shocker yet- a really bad week/month… and well, to be blunt, I would be surprised if that didn’t happen at some point. So I do hope you systematic backers have started small and have an adequate bank in place 🙂 (£2-2.5 bets, 150+ point bank. There is plenty of time to build up in the weeks and months ahead). Such is this approach you could bob up and down for a few weeks, then have a +50-80 point week.

Please Read….

Josh, there are too many bets…. !!…

I received an email from one of you who cancelled their trial already as there were ‘too many bets’… the point of the trial is to see if my approach is for you so no problems there… but I do just want to say a few things as to that specific point…

-Firstly, you should NOT be backing all qualifiers in Section 1. That is not advised, as per the welcome email/note. That would be a lot of bets but is too risky and unlikely to end well.

–The advised strategies... the point of what I think of as a ‘menu of options’ is to offer you different approaches that may suit you best. You may be comfortable just backing all qualifiers either multiple times or just the once. ‘Just once’ looks to be averaging around the 5-7 bets per day, with some days busier than others. Now, that may be too many for some, which is fair enough…

-BUT… there are options. There are always options. IF you wanted a more focused approach… you could focus on Jumps Strategies 1, 4 and 5. S1, for example, looks to be averaging around 19 bets per month so far in 2017. As I touched on in the last ‘intro’ video… those 3 may be the best place to focus anyway, systematically… at least in terms of having the most confidence moving forwards. I only say that as those three are based on the ‘ratings pointers’ (HRB, geegeez, inform) and they are a ‘constant’ and clearly add some horse based analysis to my original trainer stats qualifiers. In theory, over-time, they should just keep repeating.  If you wanted to follow a more limited systematic portfolio, i’d strongly consider those 3. But, you have the advised strategy docs and they are there to absorb and plot a way forward that suits you…. the point of the trial period is to allow you that time to explore etc.

-Important… there may always be a ‘fear of missing out syndrome’ with my approach… it is hard but whatever approach you take you do have to get used to missing winners, and accepting it. (it took me a while) You and I don’t need to back every winner to find a profitable approach from the content, that we are happy with individually and that helps us enjoy the game. That is important. And if you can get yourself into a space whereby you can ‘move on’ from missing a winner, it will be more enjoyable. It is easy to focus on missed winners and forget about the number of losers you have also missed, depending on your approach.

-ultimately you will judge your experience on how enjoyable you find the content/community etc and whether you can plot a long term profitable path with the information provided, that you are happy with. There is an approach for everyone I think.. from systematic backers (low through to high number of bets per day), subjective analysis (using all info as a list of ‘starting points’ to attack as you see fit), my ‘notes’, through to a mixture of the lot. My hope is that you get satisfaction from a) being disciplined in following any systematic approaches long term and seeing  your bank grow and/or  b) if applying your own thoughts to qualifiers (what to back, how to back them, how much should I have on -should I be more confident in X etc) that satisfaction of being right, solving the puzzle enough times, and again the betting bank growing in time, or  c) you may well just be driven by the idea of winning X amount of money over time. I’m not personally, my enjoyment comes from getting a+b right, or trying to at least! And that the rest takes care of itself. But, that may just be me. 🙂

My job is to make our experience of this sport, through the content on these pages, as enjoyable as possible.

**

As always, any questions, thoughts, positive/negative/constructive, then post a comment or email me.

Josh