Members Daily Post: 13/11/17 (complete)

Section 1, test zone,NOTES (x2) + results summary/thoughts

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Kempton

2.55 –

Maestro Royal (m1) 14,30 14/1 S2 UP

The Last Samuri (m1) H3 25/1 S2 2nd 33/1 

Sumkindofking (m1) G1 11/2 UP

 

Carlisle

2.05 –

Newstart (hncp hurdle) H1 13/2 UP

Astaroland (m1) G1 14/1 S1 S2  UP (a ‘not today’ ride!) 

Mick The Poser (m1) 15/2 UP

3.10 –

Granville Island (hncp chase) 14/1 S2  UP

Dartford Warbler (hncp chase + m1 + m1 + m1) ES  9/2 S3  UP 5/2

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1/’Strategy 1′. Added on morning of racing along with the price.

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 5th Nov)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 5th Nov)

All Members’ Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info – all  HERE>>> (please flick through,esp if new) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (26/131, +125.5)

NOTES

2.05 Carl- Newstart – 13/2 UP 5/1.. ah, not beaten far… he hasn’t got up the hill..been outstayed there…travelled well… those that raced wide there have done best, he raced tight to inside all the way,no idea if that made a difference come business end. Still, he ran well enough. No complaints there.  looks decent enough to my eye for this one and I will take a chance. He isn’t a strategy qualifier either so if he does go in he’s what I call a ‘bonus’ winner. He isn’t really in the usual category of unexposed/doing something different, so I am probably asking for trouble, but he does just look solid. He arrives here fit, in form, seemingly progressive over hurdles (could be they have found the key to him but he has been ‘in form’ for a while now) and the form of his last race has been boosted a couple of times. The second, who he just beat, has come out and won a C2 up at Ayr off 119, the fourth, Superior Commander, has since gone in at Musselburgh. It was a bunched finish that day but it would appear to be because he was beating in form/progressive horses. He handles soft, so I have no concerns over that. The niggle is whether soft, 17f and this hill, catch him out. But his experience, form, hardiness and importantly fitness may mean it doesn’t matter (if he does struggle with it) as everything else may be paddling in behind before that becomes a problem. Hopefully. The Whillans horse looks a danger but most of the others in here have a fitness question. He looked most interesting to my eyes today, at the prices.

Having pondered I have added one more…

 

3.10 Carl… Dartford Warbler – 9/2 UP..oh, well, moving on quickly from that one… never looked like winning/competing really. That will teach me. … hmm… 10 year old, 9/2… asking for trouble again, maybe. But, I don’t want to be leaving a Smith/Cook chaser around here… they will try and make-all with him as well. The fact it is Cook and they will attempt to race prominently is what has lured me. Russell’s has been up there in the past but with any luck may need the run/they won’t be aggressive, and Brother Scott will try…but he is out of form I think and if he does lead hopefully Cook tracks and takes it up a few out. This horse doesn’t have to lead but will be in the right spot. He is 10 and not one I want to go mad on but arrives here in form and conditions are fine. He can jump out to the left but his one chase win was RH. With any luck a few in here need the run and his mark/weight on back, is very appealing. This could well be his level these days and you’d like to think he would be going close here. With any luck they don’t see which way he goes! Worth some support, if you haven’t already. Well, to my eyes anyway. 9/2 looks ok.

That’s the lot for ‘notes horses’.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Tom Lacey (any odds, for now)

1.00 Carlisle – Colt Lightening UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Weekly Results Update: Summary (advised strategies)

A bit of a ‘standing still’ week on the systematic front, which is always better than losing a wheelbarrow full…

 

FLAT :  All quals mult + ‘just once’ : 0/3,0p, -3  (no multiple qualifiers)

 

JUMPS

  • Backing all strategy quals (Strat #1-5) every time they hit a strategy: 9/76, 24p = +11.5 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 5/45 = +3.25 
    • -4.75 on the week if you didn’t back the S5 drifter that won at 11.00 BFSP. (declared in results at 8/1 ISP)  

 

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 9/79,24p = +8.5 
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 5/48 = +0.25 

 

NOTES (section 2) : 0/9, -9

 

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Thoughts…

Another week of fine margins, with the Barnes horse at Hexham (8s) and the King horse yesterday (10s) looking like that may have gone very close but for both tipping up. I’m pretty sure the Barnes horse would have gone on to win, not so certain on Kings. But, that’s racing for you. Another week that could have been a +9, or +20 to that ‘backing once’ total, and suddenly it looks decent enough. It is still nagging at me that we haven’t had a total shocker yet- a really bad week/month… and well, to be blunt, I would be surprised if that didn’t happen at some point. So I do hope you systematic backers have started small and have an adequate bank in place 🙂 (£2-2.5 bets, 150+ point bank. There is plenty of time to build up in the weeks and months ahead). Such is this approach you could bob up and down for a few weeks, then have a +50-80 point week.

 

Josh, there are too many bets…. !!…

I received an email from one of you who cancelled their trial already as there were ‘too many bets’… the point of the trial is to see if my approach is for you so no problems there… but I do just want to say a few things as to that specific point…

-Firstly, you should NOT be backing all qualifiers in Section 1. That is not advised, as per the welcome email/note. That would be a lot of bets but is too risky and unlikely to end well.

The advised strategies... the point of what I think of as a ‘menu of options’ is to offer you different approaches that may suit you best. You may be comfortable just backing all qualifiers either multiple times or just the once. ‘Just once’ looks to be averaging around the 5-7 bets per day, with some days busier than others. Now, that may be too many for some, which is fair enough…

-BUT… there are options. There are always options. IF you wanted a more focused approach… you could focus on Jumps Strategies 1, 4 and 5. S1, for example, looks to be averaging around 19 bets per month so far in 2017. As I touched on in the last ‘intro’ video… those 3 may be the best place to focus anyway, systematically… at least in terms of having the most confidence moving forwards. I only say that as those three are based on the ‘ratings pointers’ (HRB, geegeez, inform) and they are a ‘constant’ and clearly add some horse based analysis to my original trainer stats qualifiers. In theory, over-time, they should just keep repeating.  If you wanted to follow a more limited systematic portfolio, i’d strongly consider those 3. But, you have the advised strategy docs and they are there to absorb and plot a way forward that suits you…. the point of the trial period is to allow you that time to explore etc.

-Important… there may always be a ‘fear of missing out syndrome’ with my approach… it is hard but whatever approach you take you do have to get used to missing winners, and accepting it. (it took me a while) You and I don’t need to back every winner to find a profitable approach from the content, that we are happy with individually and that helps us enjoy the game. That is important. And if you can get yourself into a space whereby you can ‘move on’ from missing a winner, it will be more enjoyable. It is easy to focus on missed winners and forget about the number of losers you have also missed, depending on your approach.

-ultimately you will judge your experience on how enjoyable you find the content/community etc and whether you can plot a long term profitable path with the information provided, that you are happy with. There is an approach for everyone I think.. from systematic backers (low through to high number of bets per day), subjective analysis (using all info as a list of ‘starting points’ to attack as you see fit), my ‘notes’, through to a mixture of the lot. My hope is that you get satisfaction from a) being disciplined in following any systematic approaches long term and seeing  your bank grow and/or  b) if applying your own thoughts to qualifiers (what to back, how to back them, how much should I have on -should I be more confident in X etc) that satisfaction of being right, solving the puzzle enough times, and again the betting bank growing in time, or  c) you may well just be driven by the idea of winning X amount of money over time. I’m not personally, my enjoyment comes from getting a+b right, or trying to at least! And that the rest takes care of itself. But, that may just be me. 🙂

My job is to make our experience of this sport, through the content on these pages, as enjoyable as possible.

 

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As always, any questions, thoughts, positive/negative/constructive, then post a comment or email me.

Josh

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

    1. Yep I don’t think the racing community has much chance of keeping the track open with that sort of support. Nice jumping ground, good prize money…and that’s the response. Something isn’t right somewhere for such a sad card.

      1. Somewhat ironic that when the management announced they wanted to close the course to sell it for housing the racing fraternity threw their toys out of the pram and said it mustn’t happen and it must stay open BUT in general they don’t really support the course apart from the Christmas fixture

  1. Chantilly 1.35 (2YO’s) 5 1/2 Furlongs Very soft, £26K
    THE BROGHIE MAN – Dr3
    Vastly improved speed figure; back in trip; last run under new trainer, Adrian Paul Keatley,
    Co. Kildare. Christophe Soumillon rides.
    Danger:
    Rioticism, goes on S but not VS, – Dr 1
    Zinia Dei Grif, Italian well bred (off 135 days), – Dr 2
    Neither as quick as TBM.
    No idea of the price but I cannot see a distance project of this nature unless the horse is A1.

      1. RESULT
        3rd @ 7/2
        I got 9s with Racebet befor Oddschecker tissue came out.
        RB is generally a point or two shorter than competitors but is useful as most of their customers are international and you can catch them early before they have reference to other bookies.

  2. Still recovering from a heavy stag do weekend in Bristol but there appear to be a few nice bets tomorrow.

    Sumkindofking Kempton Monday 14:55 1.5pt win-I always keep an eye on the first meeting for the season at Chepstow since it normally has some very competitive racing and once again the Silver Trophy is working out as a very hot race. The 4th was runner up in a Grade 2, the 6th and 8th won class 2s, the 7th won a Listed race easily and even the 12th was runner up in a class 2 at the last Cheltenham meeting. The selection finished 9th but was only beaten 7.5 lengths. He should come on for the run and has a nice 8lb swing with the favourite here for a 4 length defeat LTO. Ran well at the track in March in a hot race filled with horses that were too well handicapped to get into Cheltenham. Trainer has a very good record at the track (is a qualifier in Josh’s stats above) and has won this race with God’s Own 4 years ago. Heskin is over for just the one ride and is slimming down to 10st for just the 6th time in the past 3 years. I thought 8/1 looked overpriced.
    Viserion Carlisle Monday 14:05 1pt e/w-Viserion looks overpriced here. I always like horses with course and ground form at Carlisle given the hill catches a lot of horses out. He won 2 of his 6 novice hurdle runs and was placed twice before being stepped up in class and distance. Drops back to 2m1f and a class 4 which should be much more up his street. On his only run over course, distance and ground he trounced the field with relative ease (runner up who was 10 lengths back came 6 lengths 3rd at Aintree to Chesterfield who went on to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle). He is only 5 so is still pretty unexposed. Should be able to either lead or race prominently. Kennedy and McCain are in great form and have an excellent 4/13, 8p +38 record over handicap hurdles at Carlisle in the past 2 years (actually profitable across all forms of NH racing here in that time). Try and get 4 places if you can.
    Un Guet Apens Carlisle Monday 15:10 1pt e/w-Another one with form at the track and ground with a 1st and 2nd from 3 runs here. Has ran well off a break in the past. Considering he is a better chaser than hurdler I thought both his runs last season were eye-catching. Is on a very nice mark given he was previously rated in the 130s and has a solid 3/8, 5p record in class 4s. Ewart is in good form and has a solid 8/38, 12p record in handicap chases are Carlisle. Another who will up there. I wanted to take the front two in the market given the fav hasn’t done much and the 2nd is 1/15 in chases even if Sue Smith has won this 3 times in the past 6 years.

    1. in the 2.55 KP Bags Groove seems to be highly rated. I am not so sure about Le Breiul and could see Sumkindofking being an each way bet if all 8 runners stand their ground, which seems a rarity these days. I can see the each way value in Viserion at 10/1 BOG, so that may turn out to be a good spot by you Nick. Un Guet Apens, 3.10 Car is 8/1 as I speak and so I will see if it drifts? Good effort after a stag though. I am too old for them now but always felt like a zombie for a while after.

      I have not looked at the cards yet but find Mondays hard to get enthused about.

    2. I also liked Un Guet Apens in the 3.10, nice weight and trainer in good form but have also backed Tikkandemickey as a previous course and distance winner with a nice weight and having had a couple of runs looks ready for a step forward in form over a c/d where it has performed previously. 9/1 last night was fair enough.
      I did both with 2/3 of a point win and 1/3 of a point place.

      1. After the 12/1 into 11/2 and 8/1 into 5/2 shots both went a close 6th I was beginning to think it wasn’t my day. Funny how its the drifter that goes in.

      2. Welldone nick nice drift too. Had yours and brother scott dutching. Was urging scott on as was bigger price. Win win all the same.

  3. claimer William Cox has a couple of interesting rides at Southwell today,
    1-10. Ruler of the Nile a c&d winner albeit off a 7lb lower mark , cheekpieces go back on today
    3-20. Monsieur Jamie hasn’t run in over a year but was a c&d winner off a mark of 60 runs off 55 today will have a punt @33-1+ if all 8 stay in.

    1. Hi Marcel,

      you need ‘H-Run (Trainer)’ – which is the big beige Horse Data box, and on my screen the far right column, about 17 rows down.

      Select ‘0’ within that. (for how horse performs on first run with new trainer) You can then ‘breakdown’ by trainer, set some more general race types etc if you want and play around with it from there.

      Josh

  4. Marcel

    If you also go to “shortcuts”….which is in Cards/Daily you will find amongst all the various filters….one shown as the first run for trainer listed as “Horses who have changed Trainer since last run”

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