Free Daily Post: 12/11/17 (complete)

just the micros today…

re..cap… what I wrote in my members’ post on the Badger Ales.. urgh….

Present Man… I can’t repeat my reaction to watching him win. Hopefully those of you who are systematic strategy backers paid no attention to my free post analysis. If you did and I put you off then apols. I didn’t have a penny on him. I back my free tips to £20 per point and with 4 points on the race that was my limit… this is a game of price. When ‘tipping’ in the race Friday evening Present Man was generally 7s or so. He was on my race trends shortlist of 5, he hit the members stats etc. The question was all about the going. Would he handle soft/heavy. It was an unknown. He hadn’t raced on ground like that outside of novice company and you were simply guessing, to a point, as to how he would handle it. He hadn’t proved he wouldn’t. That is an important distinction. My judgement for such a ‘guess’ was that I wanted a bigger price. He was 11s generally Saturday morning. I have no idea if that would have made a difference if just looking in the morning. It is always easy with hindsight. I can live with my decision on that race, at that time. What rubs salt in the wound and made it a painful punting experience (in the context of watching horses run around a field on such an important day more generally) was how poorly my seemingly heavy ground horses ran!! Just atrocious. I hate when tips don’t run any sort of race/never in contention over the last couple. Oh well. Moving on. (they are still 90+ points for the year, I won’t feel too sorry for myself. But I despise being that wrong. On all counts. Horrible)

I got that race very wrong, so moving on swiftly.

*

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

V Williams (16/1<)

2.30 Ffos Las – Drumviredy

3.30 Sand – Houblon Des Obeaux

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.55 Sand – Monbeg Oscar

3.30 Sand – Vino Griego

*

 

That’s it from me today.

GL with any bets

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Couple of my favourite old horses run today, not sure they will win, but that’s not the point; they are brave warriors (seems apt) who have won me loads over the years so I will be watching and hoping LOOSE CHIPS + FIREBIRD FLYER have good runs and most importantly come home safe. I think and hope there are wins in both still but not today. Really thought Firebird Flyer would really be one to follow last season after winning Midlands National in 2016, but was just never right last season and seemed to lose the plot, still not too old to recover form and if he shows any spark today over hurdles, could be on a stunning Chase mark!

    Couple of interesting less exposed ones on the Card at Sandown are Sunnytaliateigan in the 12.45 and Crystal Lad in the 1.20 I will have a bit of loose change each way on them.

    1. I can see Loose Chips going well but I hear that this is Firebird Flyers last chance to avoid retirement, which he will no doubt enjoy anyway. Gary Moore has a good word for Crystal Lad.

  2. johns luck 2.30 ffos las is my bet of the day 15/2 at the moment likes this time of the year trainer/jockey decent at course worth an interest at the price antony

  3. Old favourite Firebird Flyer managed a place at 16/1; but as much as I love this horse, have to say it was hard to watch for 90% of the race and simply stayed on past beaten and very tired horses. It could go down the Veteran Chaser route but ideally needs 3 1/2 miles plus now on heavy going and it may get a sentimental low weight spot in Welsh National again, but would struggle to be competitive on that showing.

    Retirement?, or may be a shrewd move could be to send it hunting and gain an entry in to some Spring Hunter chases?, 4 miles round Cheltenham or Aintree may just give an amateur or young rider a nice safe spin.

    Horse owes me nothing though, had one great touch on it in Midlands National and deserves a long and happy retirement.

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