Free Daily Post: 28/10/17 (complete)

Well Friday was an up and down day! My three chase tips all ran ok, well two of them did.. no complaints there. The winner…well he was unexposed enough in conditions,yet with enough chase experience,raced prominently, decent jumper,stays, and had one of the best jockeys in the race on. 12/1>8/1. Sometimes it is that straightforward. All of that didn’t jump out at me pre race of course which is a concern – this may have been a plan or in any case he appeared to have plenty in hand. He was also fit. That was the big positive actually, against a load that had been off the track for an age. Clearly after every losing race I back in, and it is most of them, I like to think about what I got wrong.  I would have backed the two bigger ones still. Moving on… (yet to hit my Autumn form… maybe another +90 point January is in the offing!)

Well done Colin…who jumped on the SP2A trial I advertised…they did tip the winner of the 4.20, and he used their write ups, and mine, to find the Trifecta and cop over 2k I think. Top work. Not a bad day! Wish I had placed that bet. 🙂

It was a strange old day in the Members Club… a 50/1 winner that didn’t hit any advised strategies…I didn’t think about him long enough but there was probably enough there for a nibble. A few members had a go, so well done them. Bobble Emerald won at 33/1 for Jumps Strategy #2, which lifted the mood…so a few more happy members with any luck. That is all ticking along just fine.

On we go…

 

TIPS

2.00 Chelt 

Cogry – 1.5 points win 10/1 | 9/1 WON 10/1>13/2 

Victonte De Noyer – 1.5 points win – 12/1 | 11/1 UP (he is being aimed at something?? Same race as last year.. eye catching, bottomed out up hill having swooped into it like a good one) 

 

Tips Update: 2017    140 bets / 15 wins / +99 points 

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Shortlist: these two, Singlefarmpayment, Coologue

Cogry… I’ve done it again. This will be the third time? that I am about to utter these words… this is the final time I ever back this horse! 🙂 I think this race is his, if he consents to stand up! His finished last season with his two best runs for some time and very nearly won the Scottish Grand National. He is a classy horse on his day, when putting it all together- much better than most of these, on what they have done to date/in race conditions. He has run very well fresh before, has course form, will travel on the pace (they will try and make all, and they may just have the class to do so, IF he jumps!)…and, he does have Sam T-D on… which is a positive in terms of getting him jumping. Had he finished last season with a whimper than I may have left him. But, there is just something about this one. I never get the bugger right, but there really are no excuses. While a tad further may suit he does have the pace for this…and if he can get into a rhythm on the front, and if he doesn’t make any mistakes!- he will take this I think. He was well backed in this last year when I had a go also- he got the first all wrong, approaching it too fast, and that was that. There are no excuses today. He will be ready to perform here. Big Nige, as he is affectionately called by his kids, has won this race before and the horse hits two of my ‘Twister’ angles. He hasn’t had such a prolific time of it this year but 40% of his runners have been winning or placing… and at a double figure price I won’t be deterred. He could smack a fence or two here. He could lose confidence. Maybe they have a longer term aim. But I will have a dart.

Victonte De Noyer .. another with big field chase form, and winning chase form around here to boot. He has won after a break, here at last year’s November meeting, and his last run of the season showed he has the pace for this trip I think (ran well over shorter than ideal) and the ground shouldn’t be a problem. He just looks solid for team Tizzard who have already had a winner here and who have clearly got them fit enough at home- if they want them to be. This one should track the pace and looks nailed on to run his race, if that is the intention. I couldn’t really find any holes in this one and at double figures I couldn’t resist. There is much chat about Bryan Cooper…and whether he may have lost some of his bottle with his various injuries..esp with chasers… sometimes their jumping can fall apart under him- i don’t know if that is the horses or him, or both. A lack of confidence would transmit to a horse, they are clever buggers. Anyway, young Byan has ridden some of my biggest jumps winners to victory, so I won’t be too harsh on him. I don’t let jockeys put me off bets if I like the horse/price.

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The others…well Singlefarmpayment and Coologue look the main dangers to my eyes… the former is short enough given that he has yet to win after a break/on seasonal return, can be a bit buzzy, and is a single figure price. Were he 10s+ then yep i’d take the chance I suspect. He is also usually ridden in mid division/held up, and that type always needs luck- and around here is another reason why I would like a bigger price. He may come here swinging at the bottom of the hill and win this well. I can live with that at the prices. He is a nice type and one to keep on the right side of this year you feel, they will plunder something with him.

Coologue… well he is 2/2 on seasonal reappearance and may make it 3/3. He won this race last year off a break. This is his time of year. His case is obvious I suppose but again is single figures and he does have a bit of the ‘Corgys’ about him – he does try to take the odd fence home with him every now and then. I also think this is a much stronger race than last year’s edition, where Keltus and Silver Man chased him home. That felt like a C2, and a weak enough one at that. This feels like a Grade 3 to me, and I don’t think he could do what the two selections have achieved, when on their game. So, at single figures, I can live with him winning. As I can…

I should mention Doing Fine, who wouldn’t be a shock winner but he prefers further than this and is a hold up type. At single figures, in a race like this, over a trip possibly too short, I can leave him- and live with myself if he wins. Clearly if you like the price I won’t be attempting to put you off. Those are my reasons.

I was struggling to make a case for much else. Robinsfirth may do the lot but I got my fingers deservedly burnt yesterday with Bugsie Malone who simple lacked the chase experience for a big field test around here, and lost all confidence after his first jumping error. This is a big field of more experienced chasers who will go a pace here. He may relish it. He may bolt up and if he does then is clearly very talented and one to watch. But he is single figure odds also, and again, I can live with him winning. His lack of experience for a test like this would concern me. Maybe we should keep an eye on him for the Festival!

If something else wins then I wasn’t destined to find them today.

PACE… Cogry will be in the right spot, I hope he can lead, and get jumping…like he did at Ayr. Kim Bailey’s will try and be up there but I am convinced that is Sam wants to lead, he will..just don’t approach that first fence too quickly! VDN should sit just behind the pace, in the perfect spot.

I should add… all 10 winners of this have been sent off 12/1 or shorter SP to date… 9/10 won on seasonal reappearance, and 8 year olds have the best record in terms of win/places to no. of runners.

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VIDEO : A run through the Cheltenham card… some goodies in there…maybe…

 

 

Horses touched on… run through 2pm, tips above… and then a focus on some of my members stats…

3.10 – Cobra De Mai / Sizing Platinum

3.45 – WhataKnight / Quarenta / Templestatefloresco / Stick To The Plan (one of them is winning!) 🙂

The bumper.. recent history suggests you want one of the 5 that has had a rules run already…all big odds… prob year a debutant bolts up now! 5 horses of interest with a run, 3 that don’t carry penalties… Brianstorm / Samsontheman / Pure Affection… some loose change on those for fun.

I skip through the novice races.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

T George Chasers

2.00 Chelt – Singlefarmpayment

Flat 2017: 60+ Days

2.15 Newb  – Best Solution (14/1 or shorter)

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Ventia Time… Free System Blog Post HERE>>>

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • I am feeling under the weather so no write ups today

    Irish Hawke Kelso Saturday 16:40 1.5pt win
    Walsingham Grange Newbury Saturday 17:05 1pt e/w
    Coologue Cheltenham Saturday 14:00 1pt e/w (I would rather take a lower price but the 6 places with WH but you should be able to get a better price in the morning around 8-8:30am)
    Western Hymn Newbury Saturday 14:15 1pt e/w (make sure you get 4 places)

    Nick Mazur 27/10/17 9:13 PM Reply


    • Forgot to mention yesterday but have also had a £5ew saver on Vicount De Noyer in the 2PM at Cheltenham with Hills paying 6 (given 16 runners and 6 places there is an argument to have even more but will leave it at that)

      Have also had £5e/w on Mr FiftyOne in the 15:10 who with five places with Sky looks big even with his record left handed.

      Nick Mazur 28/10/17 9:14 AM Reply


  • ITV 7 time again, being doing ok with these (kiss of death)
    1 2:00 Cheltenham – Win Doing Fine @ Guaranteed Price (6/1)
    2 2:15 Newbury – Win Western Hymn @ Guaranteed Price (14/1
    3 2:50 Newbury – Win Tangled @ Guaranteed Price (13/2)
    4 3:10 Cheltenham – Win Le Prezien @ Guaranteed Price (11/2)
    5 3:25 Doncaster – Win Saxon Warrior @ Guaranteed Price (5/4)
    6 3:45 Cheltenham – Win Quarenta @ Guaranteed Price (11/1)
    7 4:00 Doncaster – Win Spring Loaded @ Guaranteed Price (11/2)
    normal staking £1 ew 6-1+, £1ew 6-1 –

    few others i’ll have a small interest in
    chelt
    2-00 Cogry
    2-35 Twobeelucky
    3-45 Rolling Maul
    donny
    1-45 Mutaaqeb/Staxton
    4-00 Soie D’Leau
    gl all for today

    martin whittle 28/10/17 12:47 AM Reply


  • Josh – good luck with Cogry, one little stat to boost your confidence that I spotted earlier; been ridden 8 times from what I can see by ST-D never fallen, and given the context of his overall career and jumping that’s a pretty significant one wouldn’t you think!

    Ian SP2A 28/10/17 10:18 AM Reply


  • Ryan Moore 6 rides all will be recorded
    William Buick 3 rides all will be recorded
    Richard Johnson 3 rides all will be recorded
    1 winner yesterday 12/1 SP 16.00 BFEX SP
    Sam Twiston-Davies 6 rides all will be recorded
    Brian Cooper 4 rides all will be recorded
    Barry Geraghty 1 ride will be recorded

    colin leafe 28/10/17 11:24 AM Reply


  • Racing Post Trophy – once more to the clifftop. The best looking 2yo I have seen this season in Seahenge. Here are my htf comments from the Vintage Stakes.
    I fell in love with this great big strong and scopey son of Scat Daddy. Hard to be clear about his underperformance. He was a bit green and if my theory about the ground is right it may have been a bit soft for him. It was only his second run and his sp suggests Ballydoyle knew they were up against it. Despite this he looks to have Group Class potential and should certainly be at a fair price nto if he goes for another group race on g/f, if we ever get any!

    Of course he won nto at 8/1 whilst I was away on holiday. That was in a GP2 on this track. I haven’t seen any of his rivals for the purposes of comparison but have to stick with my gut feeling about him. He ran very well in 3rd in the Dewhurst despite an unlucky run and less than maximum effort from the pilot who is on again today.

    So it will be 1pt e/w Seahenge at 14’s with 365 and a combo trifecta Seahenge, The Pentagon and Saxon Warrior for an O’Brien 123.
    I had a fiver on him for the Guineas at 40’s yesterday too.
    Hugh

    alpha2 28/10/17 11:48 AM Reply


  • I got 10/1 Roaring Lion (3.25 Don), which I have backed each way. Must be improving with experience against the O’Brien hot pots. I was impressed with Danehill Kodiak LTO and so have taken the 8/1 each way for four places in 2.15 NB. I can see Cogry in the 2.00CH but thought that Minellacelebration was big at 25/1+ in the race.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 28/10/17 11:50 AM Reply


  • Just checked the stats for Cogry same as Ian SP2A, with Sam he is 2.1.2.1.8.1.1.6. When Hatch rides he obviously doesn’t get on with him! So I have backed it!

    rogerwyndham 28/10/17 1:44 PM Reply


  • 5 lengths easing up BOOM to Cogry

    rogerwyndham 28/10/17 2:08 PM Reply


  • I had faith josh (was sweating a bit lol) well done again .cogry top class tip

    jamie2255 28/10/17 2:10 PM Reply


    • Never in doubt.. until the last haha. A superb round for him, well placed as expected by Sam, that was over a long way out. He looked tubby pre race also, could come on a bundle for it. Some eye catchers in that.. the front 4/5/6 have races in them.. Viconte ran as if being aimed at something, back here no doubt for race he won last year!

      Josh 28/10/17 2:16 PM Reply


      • It was a great ride by Sam but I have to disagree with your comment about the looking tubby. I thought he was fit and fine and I had a good look , both in the pre parade ring and in the main ring, so I am not expecting much improvement from that perspective.rEGARDS
        cLIVE

        Clive 30/10/17 6:08 PM Reply


        • Cheers Clive, I will take your word for it… that was from my couch, and only a fleeting glimpse…think I was more swayed by what the RUK pundits said, as they all thought he would come on for it… the way he ran and powered up the hill would suggest you are right, and prob not much more to come.. but, they certainly haven’t got to the bottom of his ability yet over fences. Just whether he can stand up in future but it looks like they have learnt how to ride him..jockeys must make up his mind for him.

          Josh 30/10/17 7:28 PM Reply


  • Normal service resumed on the tipping front there mate

    Nick Mazur 28/10/17 2:11 PM Reply


    • Wipes out all recent losses from latest losing run and propels into profit!.. or near enough +100 points for year I think now. That was a joy to watch, was fat pre race! can never tell if that is them but they may have found key..Sam has to ride I think, for total confidence..given his running style/stamina, he could have a few nice races in him. Nearly went over the last haha- his only mistake really.

      Josh 28/10/17 2:15 PM Reply


      • You must have slightly shat yourself at that last. Extra bonus with it being backed twice given the systems.

        Nick Mazur 28/10/17 2:20 PM Reply


        • Nah, never any worry haha – it was the only fence I took a breath as wondered what he had left in tank… that was a minor error for his standards. Pleased for the horse… clearly a load of talent, albeit winning distances can be exaggerated at this time of year. Some eye-catchers in behind…you would think that race is throwing up plenty of future winners throughout the season. That had plenty of depth. Front 5-8 worth keeping tabs on.

          Josh 28/10/17 2:28 PM Reply


          • Agreed. This meeting far more about the future races for me. I added all the 3 handicaps from yesterday to the race trackers and will do the same today.

            Nick Mazur 28/10/17 2:35 PM Reply


      • Nice one Josh, Mr Saturday! Had Cogry and Minellacelebration both to win. Some future winners tucked behind I think? Jumping and running at the front as you often say.

        martin colwell 28/10/17 2:27 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh, and a big thank you .

    Michael Manning 28/10/17 2:11 PM Reply


    • Cheers Michael, always enjoyable when it goes to plan!

      Josh 28/10/17 4:35 PM Reply


  • good work with cogry. game performance by foxtail hill will it take it out of the 1st two nto if returned quickly to the track

    peter 28/10/17 3:20 PM Reply


  • Could not believe Roaring Lion! I was on big each way at 10/1 and he sauntered past them and then cocked his head and changed his mind!!!!! I was going to book a winter break with those winnings but Bognor here we come now.

    martin colwell 28/10/17 3:38 PM Reply


  • Anther good one Josh….God. How many times have we gone with Cogry…..lol

    Nice one Josh.

    Tont Mc.

    tonymc 28/10/17 4:32 PM Reply


    • haha , cheers… ah, not too many, maybe only 3, possibly 4…have dodged him a couple, inc when winning over hurdles! And at Ffos Las. I think 3. In any case, he has now made a profit for us…prob should leave it there, but if Sam ever rides again in races without much pace, I may not be able to resist!

      Josh 28/10/17 4:34 PM Reply


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