Well Friday was an up and down day! My three chase tips all ran ok, well two of them did.. no complaints there. The winner…well he was unexposed enough in conditions,yet with enough chase experience,raced prominently, decent jumper,stays, and had one of the best jockeys in the race on. 12/1>8/1. Sometimes it is that straightforward. All of that didn’t jump out at me pre race of course which is a concern – this may have been a plan or in any case he appeared to have plenty in hand. He was also fit. That was the big positive actually, against a load that had been off the track for an age. Clearly after every losing race I back in, and it is most of them, I like to think about what I got wrong. I would have backed the two bigger ones still. Moving on… (yet to hit my Autumn form… maybe another +90 point January is in the offing!)
Well done Colin…who jumped on the SP2A trial I advertised…they did tip the winner of the 4.20, and he used their write ups, and mine, to find the Trifecta and cop over 2k I think. Top work. Not a bad day! Wish I had placed that bet. 🙂
It was a strange old day in the Members Club… a 50/1 winner that didn’t hit any advised strategies…I didn’t think about him long enough but there was probably enough there for a nibble. A few members had a go, so well done them. Bobble Emerald won at 33/1 for Jumps Strategy #2, which lifted the mood…so a few more happy members with any luck. That is all ticking along just fine.
On we go…
Cogry – 1.5 points win– 10/1 | 9/1 WON 10/1>13/2
Victonte De Noyer – 1.5 points win – 12/1 | 11/1 UP (he is being aimed at something?? Same race as last year.. eye catching, bottomed out up hill having swooped into it like a good one)
Tips Update: 2017 140 bets / 15 wins / +99 points
Shortlist: these two, Singlefarmpayment, Coologue
Cogry… I’ve done it again. This will be the third time? that I am about to utter these words… this is the final time I ever back this horse! 🙂 I think this race is his, if he consents to stand up! His finished last season with his two best runs for some time and very nearly won the Scottish Grand National. He is a classy horse on his day, when putting it all together- much better than most of these, on what they have done to date/in race conditions. He has run very well fresh before, has course form, will travel on the pace (they will try and make all, and they may just have the class to do so, IF he jumps!)…and, he does have Sam T-D on… which is a positive in terms of getting him jumping. Had he finished last season with a whimper than I may have left him. But, there is just something about this one. I never get the bugger right, but there really are no excuses. While a tad further may suit he does have the pace for this…and if he can get into a rhythm on the front, and if he doesn’t make any mistakes!- he will take this I think. He was well backed in this last year when I had a go also- he got the first all wrong, approaching it too fast, and that was that. There are no excuses today. He will be ready to perform here. Big Nige, as he is affectionately called by his kids, has won this race before and the horse hits two of my ‘Twister’ angles. He hasn’t had such a prolific time of it this year but 40% of his runners have been winning or placing… and at a double figure price I won’t be deterred. He could smack a fence or two here. He could lose confidence. Maybe they have a longer term aim. But I will have a dart.
Victonte De Noyer .. another with big field chase form, and winning chase form around here to boot. He has won after a break, here at last year’s November meeting, and his last run of the season showed he has the pace for this trip I think (ran well over shorter than ideal) and the ground shouldn’t be a problem. He just looks solid for team Tizzard who have already had a winner here and who have clearly got them fit enough at home- if they want them to be. This one should track the pace and looks nailed on to run his race, if that is the intention. I couldn’t really find any holes in this one and at double figures I couldn’t resist. There is much chat about Bryan Cooper…and whether he may have lost some of his bottle with his various injuries..esp with chasers… sometimes their jumping can fall apart under him- i don’t know if that is the horses or him, or both. A lack of confidence would transmit to a horse, they are clever buggers. Anyway, young Byan has ridden some of my biggest jumps winners to victory, so I won’t be too harsh on him. I don’t let jockeys put me off bets if I like the horse/price.
The others…well Singlefarmpayment and Coologue look the main dangers to my eyes… the former is short enough given that he has yet to win after a break/on seasonal return, can be a bit buzzy, and is a single figure price. Were he 10s+ then yep i’d take the chance I suspect. He is also usually ridden in mid division/held up, and that type always needs luck- and around here is another reason why I would like a bigger price. He may come here swinging at the bottom of the hill and win this well. I can live with that at the prices. He is a nice type and one to keep on the right side of this year you feel, they will plunder something with him.
Coologue… well he is 2/2 on seasonal reappearance and may make it 3/3. He won this race last year off a break. This is his time of year. His case is obvious I suppose but again is single figures and he does have a bit of the ‘Corgys’ about him – he does try to take the odd fence home with him every now and then. I also think this is a much stronger race than last year’s edition, where Keltus and Silver Man chased him home. That felt like a C2, and a weak enough one at that. This feels like a Grade 3 to me, and I don’t think he could do what the two selections have achieved, when on their game. So, at single figures, I can live with him winning. As I can…
I should mention Doing Fine, who wouldn’t be a shock winner but he prefers further than this and is a hold up type. At single figures, in a race like this, over a trip possibly too short, I can leave him- and live with myself if he wins. Clearly if you like the price I won’t be attempting to put you off. Those are my reasons.
I was struggling to make a case for much else. Robinsfirth may do the lot but I got my fingers deservedly burnt yesterday with Bugsie Malone who simple lacked the chase experience for a big field test around here, and lost all confidence after his first jumping error. This is a big field of more experienced chasers who will go a pace here. He may relish it. He may bolt up and if he does then is clearly very talented and one to watch. But he is single figure odds also, and again, I can live with him winning. His lack of experience for a test like this would concern me. Maybe we should keep an eye on him for the Festival!
If something else wins then I wasn’t destined to find them today.
PACE… Cogry will be in the right spot, I hope he can lead, and get jumping…like he did at Ayr. Kim Bailey’s will try and be up there but I am convinced that is Sam wants to lead, he will..just don’t approach that first fence too quickly! VDN should sit just behind the pace, in the perfect spot.
I should add… all 10 winners of this have been sent off 12/1 or shorter SP to date… 9/10 won on seasonal reappearance, and 8 year olds have the best record in terms of win/places to no. of runners.
VIDEO : A run through the Cheltenham card… some goodies in there…maybe…
Horses touched on… run through 2pm, tips above… and then a focus on some of my members stats…
3.10 – Cobra De Mai / Sizing Platinum
3.45 – WhataKnight / Quarenta / Templestatefloresco / Stick To The Plan (one of them is winning!) 🙂
The bumper.. recent history suggests you want one of the 5 that has had a rules run already…all big odds… prob year a debutant bolts up now! 5 horses of interest with a run, 3 that don’t carry penalties… Brianstorm / Samsontheman / Pure Affection… some loose change on those for fun.
I skip through the novice races.
T George Chasers
2.00 Chelt – Singlefarmpayment
Flat 2017: 60+ Days
2.15 Newb – Best Solution (14/1 or shorter)
Ventia Time… Free System Blog Post HERE>>>