It’s Venetia Time: Buckle Up!

Venetia Williams: THE November Angle

Venetia Williams, arguably the most glamourous trainer in the National Hunt game, whizzing from course to course in her Aston Martin and expensive coats, usually comes alive at this time of year.

Specifically she comes alive with her chasers. I/we, have followed the angle below for the last three years or so I think. Certainly from 2015. You will see from the table below that last year wasn’t as good on the profit front, but it was still a profit. The figures for the last 5 seasons are a bit mad.

What can we expect this year? Well, she is due a dud one year. It could be this year. Early signs are promising, having had a winner already at Carlisle who would have qualified against this angle if it was November. The indications are that yet again she has got her string fit at home. 

Let’s get to it…

  • Venetia Williams
  • Beginners Chase / Handicap Chase / Handicap Novice Chase
  • November (follow back end October…from now)
  • Horse Runs In last 90 Days: NOT exactly 1.
  • 16/1 or shorter SP

 

Top Level: 108 bets / 35 wins / 53 places / 32% win SR / +158 SP / +190 BFSP / AE 1.91 /(+42 BF Place market) 

 

 

 

 

 


Notes:

-Within the same rule, in Handicap Hurdles, Venetia is 5/45,15p, -10. Indeed in all race types outside of those selected, in the period analysed/same rules, she is 14/91,28p, -20, AE 0.88

-Within the system above… those sent off bigger than 16/1 are 0/14,2p. Those older than 10 are now 0/7,0p, so again, something to keep an eye on.

-The 90 day rule… those that had 1 run in the previous 90 days, and hit all the other rules, are… 5/56,17p, -26 SP. There is plenty of logic for that, which I can’t be bothered to explain! I could record a video but it has just gone midday on Friday 27th Oct and my to-do list isn’t getting any shorter! The rule makes sense to me. And every trainer rule must have logic really. 

That’s it I think. Qualifiers will be posted on the free blog posts, as they always will be until this angle is no longer useful. That will be a sad day. It may be this year so, as ever, some caution. But, use it as you please.

*

Enjoy, Josh

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10 Comments

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  • Venetia….oh oh oh oh! The Lady Penelope of the racing world.

    I was at Lingfield Park once with some pals and after a few beers they bet me to go over to her and serenade her. She was not impressed.

    I like to follow her in the big hsndicap chases in the mud.

    martin colwell 27/10/17 1:06 PM Reply


  • she had a very high percentage in 2013-2014
    would ground conditions be the reason for the swing in winning percentage

    if 2016 was a dried November that may help if we have another dry
    month this year

    peter 27/10/17 3:33 PM Reply


    • Nothing much on the ground front… in terms of in the actual races… very good record on Good/Good to Soft this time of year… last year was drier late summer? So probably affected ability to train horses fully at home and tune them up fully.. her numbers were down and I suspect she just won;t run them until happy at this time of year. Hopefully back to 2015 numbers, that would be nice!

      Josh 27/10/17 3:37 PM Reply


      • December 2015 was the wettest month in History!!

        who shone then

        peter 27/10/17 3:42 PM Reply


        • 2009 November was Cumbrias wetest month in history
          so maybe she did well at Carlisle
          that November

          peter 27/10/17 3:46 PM Reply


      • From a fundamental way in Josh I think the ground makes a huge difference in how to play Miss VW.
        If you look at GS it is poor and Good has too few runners to consider. Soft and Heavy have twice the numbers and practically all the profit. I have taken this from weeks 42 to 49 which is solid. I think using weeks gives a better view towards what I like to call period performance (PP)! Simply having a micro that works for a specific month often misses a week or two before and after where they still perform well consistently.

        Chris Albin 27/10/17 10:34 PM Reply


        • I wouldn’t argue with the weeks idea…maybe that’s something I should look at!… with her it is very much about how much she was able to work them over the summer to her usual methods etc I think. Within the rules above the official going is irrelevant from the stats I looked at…stats for GS are very good. Not reason to ignore them. Clearly can take a horse by horse going view also. And clearly for many a case of softer the better.

          Josh 27/10/17 11:07 PM Reply


  • Had the pleasure of a visit to her yard in 2009 excellent set up and terrific staff however she gave nothing away happy memories for me not for my son who was stung by a bee,and is she so petite.

    colin leafe 27/10/17 6:51 PM Reply


  • A few years ago at Warwick I was stood around the Parade Ring, watching the horses come in and minding my own business just chatting to my missus. I just remarked about one horse and said something like “that’s from Venetia Williams stable and looks really fit; we’ll have a few quid on it”. From behind came a “well said young man” and I turned around to see a couple and Venetia chatting away. I just smiled politely and thought nothing of it.

    Next meeting there (and if you know Warwick it is one of the more accessible Paddocks) I was just walking down to my normal pre-race spot and she came out of the Riders Changing Rooms, “hello young man” she said “have you come to spot another one of mine”. Again I just smiled and politely nodded my head and away she went.

    I just think that sums her up; inherently pleasant but has her own unique aloof style. I don’t think she is anyone you would ever get in to deep conversation with, unless you were in her close circle, but neither does she have the “up your nose” arrogance of some well bred gents and lady trainers.

    I have to say that she has always struck me as a bit like Joanna Lumley, just stunningly beautiful in a very natural way with that air of being something different and in her own way special.

    She can train a horse too!

    Ian SP2A 28/10/17 10:31 AM Reply


    • You clearly had better luck with her then me Ian. Must have been my poor singing voice?

      martin colwell 28/10/17 12:49 PM Reply


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