Members Daily Post: 28/10/17 (complete)

ADDITION! (3.45) Section 1/test zone + Chelt quals (+ratings pointers) + Notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newbury 

3.20 –

Genetics (3yo+) 9/1 UP

Mutarakez (m2) 30  12/1 UP 9/2 

 

Doncaster

4.00 – Atletico (all hncps + 3yo+) ES I3 12/1 S3

 

JUMPS

Kelso

3.35 – Civil Unrest (all hncps + hncp hurdle) ES G1 H3 8/1  S3  S1  2nd 12/1

4.40 – Sybil Grey (hncp hurdle) G3 66/1 S1 UP

5.15 – Chapel Stile (all hncps) ES+ H3 7/4 S3A 2nd 

 

Cheltenham

2.00 – 

Henryville (all hncps) 14,30 H3 40/1  UP

Doing Fine (hncp chase) G1  7/1    3rd 

3.10 – 

Eastlake (m1, m1)  25/1 S2 UP

Le Prezien (m1) 14,30 H3 I1 11/2 2nd 

3.45 – 

Whataknight (hncp hurdle) 14,30  10/1 S2  UP

Solstice Star (hncp hurdle) Quarenta (m1,m1) G1 22/1 S1 S2 

Quarenta (m1, m1)  G1 12/1 *   S1 S2  UP

*added 8.15 am, on my notepad,just didn’t bother typing him up last night

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +  :  Minimum 10 winners, 25% or bigger win strike rate (angles in link above)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 22nd Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 22nd Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | JUMPS 2017/18: Read HERE>>>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2. Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/77,28p, -8.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/150, +15.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (24/113, +123.5)

NOTES

3.20 Mutarakez –  UP 9/2… well backed, I won’t touch him again… what a horror of a horse haha… he was worth a go at those odds, beat the market, but hung like a rickety gate against a rail which should have helped…he clearly needs an awful lot to go right. One to leave. He will bolt up again one day but will be guesswork as to his mental state!  

There is something about this horse that is mercurial, something in my gut which says have a go at a  double figure price, so have a go I will! With my – ‘boll**ks, yesterday I missed a 50/1 winner that was way below his last winning handicap mark’ head on, I couldn’t fail to note this one was rated OR101 at his peak, and is now OR 83. He is getting very well handicapped and his problems appear to be in the head. A few things caught the eye.. he has ran in the past as if he wants 10f these days and this is his first run over 10f, in soft. He has some decent course form and his rest pattern caught the eye.. his last two runs have been after 49 and 46 days… he returns 10 days here.. to a track/ground the trainer knows he likes. He is fresher than most in here and this could be typical end of seaon fare where many have had enough for the year. His wins when a 3yo in decent class 2s were impressive. This horse has loads of ability somewhere and IF he got it together I get the impression he could blow a field like this apart. That last run intrigued me having just watched the video back.. he got a very quiet ride from Spencer and ran on well. He is tricky and he isn’t proven over 10f, so can see why he was ridden cold. But he didn’t pick up the stick at all and he ran on well enough. Interesting. Trainer/jockey are 2/13,5p in handicaps and it is his first ride on the horse. This one could tail in last, run on too late, not stay in the ground (i think he stays 10f on good,this, an unknown), throw the race away when 5l clear… or he could bolt up. I’ll roll the dice he does the latter!

That’s it for ‘notes’… most other biggies are covered by various strategies I think!

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Re-cap…

Well that was a strange day! The notes horses all ran well, no issues there. I didn’t have a penny on the Mick Easterby 50/1>28/1 winner. Gulp. Annoying. What could I have focused on? This is what I thought about post race.. Well he was 10lb below his last win, 2lb below his last handicap win, and was one of the few in the race below their last handicap mark.. he was dropping in class…yes it was still C2 but a lower C2, 12k to winner or so, not the 40-60k C2s he had been racing in. His last race wasn’t too bad actually, beaten 5l, hit trouble in running. He was one of the few with course form. Oh it just gets worse! Instead, in part down to my head rattling with Jumps horses coming from every angle, I saw the ‘duck eggs’, looked at Mick’s form (2/54 or so 30 days, 0/24 last 14) and moved on.. I didn’t stop to think about his price and that he deserved a closer look. I have done that before. After such winners I have said I will make the same mistake again. And I have! What do they say.. the definition of Insanity is….. ! ! Bobble Emerald ended the day well for any systematic strategy 2 backers… showing again that the market can mean sod all..10/1>33/1. Maybe he was lucky. Did I think he would win? Did I heck, but that is why if you follow a system you follow it…and is why you start small and build up- to take away the mental anguish. I only had £5 on him, so, I am still annoyed! I did think he would get an easy lead..as such maybe I should have upgraded for another £5. Always things to improve on. But, you have to deal with missing winners. I know there will be some of you reading this who backed neither. That is how it goes, and again, you just have to be happy with your own bank’s progress etc. In time the aim is to land on more of those! And of course, take the Easterby winner… there will have been more than 50 non strategy losers in recent weeks, as an example. When you think about winners missed, you have to think about losers avoided. Well, that’s what I try and do to cope with such howlers!! Onwards. (oh and I didn’t back the 12/1 Vaughan winner either for the Chelt micros… he was 0/151 at Chelts…pleased for him that he won, you could see the relief…)

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD (all Chelt)

2.00 – Cogry (m1, 22/1<, m4) WON 10/1>13/2 

3.10 – Foxtail Hill (m1, 22/1<, m4) WON 8/1 

4.55 – Calett Mad (m1, 22/1<) WON 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cheltenham Showcase: Day 2

Micro Qualifiers

Micro 1 (20/1<)

3.10 –

Cobra De Mai G1 

3.45 –

Quarenta G1

Stick To The Plan UP

Thomas Campbell WON 4/1>5/2 

4.55 –

Calett Mad H1 I3 G1

Mon Palois UP

5.30 –

Brianstorm 3rd 16/1

 

Micro 2 (16/1< best now I think…,mark up 10/1< )

3.10 – (also Micro 3)

Cobra De Mai G1  UP 

Sizing Platinum  (M2 ‘A’ – 8lb+ last run) H3 3rd

3.45 – (also Micro 3)

Bucking The Trend DNQ

Johanos (M2 ‘A’ – 8lb+ last run) G3 

Quarenta G1 UP

Templestatefloresco H3 I3 UP

4.20-

Double Treasure (M2 ‘A’ – 8lb+ last run) G3 WON 9/1

Two Taffs H1 G3 I3 2nd 3/1

4.55 –

Calett Mad H1 I3 G1

Mister Mister (M2 ‘A’ – 8lb+ last run)

5.30 –

Mighty Thunder H1 I3 

Way Out West H3 

 

Micro 3

All those in the 3.10 and 3.45 mentioned above.

 

Trainers (Nicholls/Longsdon/Mulholland)

2.00- Coologue / Doing Fine

3.45 – Connetable

4.20 – ALcala

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. as you say Josh, one of those days. Perfect Pasture, i looked at it…… and looked at it…… i was thinking ” why didnt Josh make more of it ….” and ignored it ….. hey ho.. always saturday!

    1. Ah…never do that again haha…if I don’t make more of it but you think there is some sort of case then go for it. Never let me not mentioning one put you off own views,esp that end of market..as clearly I can and will miss some every now and then! Haven’t missed a decent priced non strategy winner in a few weeks. Oh well.

  2. Evening guys.

    Heading to wolves tomorrow with a group of mates, if anyone has any thoughts/anything stands out as worth a bet it would be great to hear.

    Had a look through provisionally and one I quite like is Newstead Abbey in the 915.

    Course record is impressive 3 wins from 6 including 1 place. Eaves has won twice on the horse including at the track.

    Niggle is that recent form is over 6f in class 6 although on review of last race at Wolves in a class 5 it finished 4th after missing the break and door was shut on it in the home straight.

    Horse has won at 7+ in the past.

    Now unless I’m missing something think it’s worth a few bob at the track. Currently 14/1.

    Cue last place!

    Cheers

    1. 915 – Looks quite a tough race with the Graphite who could hose up here, but the one i quite liked was Air Of York currently 12-1, two runs back beat Nutini comfortably, that horse came out and won next time and is also running in the first this evening, fine with Course, Distance and should run a very solid race albeit maybe more place material than win as the niggle is the class of the race but at 12’s worth a shot

    2. My word Luke there is some dross there tonight!! I have had a quick look and take these with an unhealthy sized pinch of salt…

      my ‘best/most interesting/ wagers…

      5.45 – Santa Fiora
      6.45 – Know Your Name/Barnaby Brook

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      then, anyones guess.. i’d be throwing £2s around like confetti on..

      6.15 – Don’tforgettocall (you do want ‘winners’ when going racing also, not all about ‘value’ bets, well, for me, and he ‘could’ be a winner!)
      7.15 – Sir Dylan
      7.45 – big time maybe

      And two from ‘my trainer’… there is no inside info here, these two are monkeys but if ran their best would go close…anything could happen…

      8.45 – Thaqaffa
      9.15 – Carnival King

      I probably haven’t mentioned a winner, and they may all be rubbish. I have used Geegeez gold… trainer form indicators… instant expert.. speed ratings… pace maps.

      I spent more time looking at Mutarakez then I did flicking through that card, you have been warned haha. I’d use your paddock eye- a challenge with your mates – who can pick out the best looking one…those whose picks finish worst off have to buy a round! I’d spend a lot of time at bar if I were there tonight! feels open, i’d attack plenty at a price.

      GL

  3. Just to put my two pennies in
    I do study the aw meetings, (well some of them anyway)
    545 Liked Rapid Ranger but stable bit out of form, Santafiora if they let it go from front this over shorter trip, trainer in form, I also put down Round the Island, bit of an unkown here but has drifted in betting

    615 I like Don’tforget to call but has a bad draw to overcome, Morris can get them out and gone though so every chance, Toolatetodelegate the danger and has been backed

    645 Barnabys Brook likes it here, Tailors Row but its a Johnson horse so who knos, Oregon Gift could go well, trainer in form, I had Bayston Hill in my tracker on its last run here when it got crowded out but Usher don’t have too many winners and was disappointing last time

    715 Raashdy to follow up

    745 Andy Holding has tipped up Big Time Maybe and it did seem to look the part at Kempton last time, some of these though have been running better grade so I’ve not got it as a good thing. May Remain been running in better company, Wiff Waff backed last time and not really get a clear run, even the dreaded Johnson runner Emilia James might have a chance but a bad draw

    815 Walk On The Water ran off the track at Kempton last time, Spencer was letting it come home in its own time but then thought he had a chance so started riding then realised it hadn’t so stopped again. Given all that I still think it ran a race full of promise,Its going the opposite way round this time, Spencer rides again so as long as it hasn’t got a screww lose I think it can win, Mraseel as a saver

    845 too difficult, I’ve got Dreaming Time, Debonaire David and Golden Guest but probably best left

    915 Logi but stable out of form, Daring Guest and Murdanova

    Well there you go, do with it as you will My best bets would be Raashdy and WalkonWater but no certanties, it is a bit of a difficult card but they all seem to be these days.

    Enjoy your night anyway and only bet what you can afford(well don’t lose your beer money at least!!)

  4. I lost out on over 50pts of profit yesterday with bad judgement/luck by leaving too high a price (85.0) when it was 50.0 and ended up getting 34.0 bfsp on Perfect Pasture and not big enough (23.0) when it was 14.0 on Bobble Emerald which then drifted to 34.0 .
    seriously considering just placing ridiculously high prices and taking bfsp on everything but i have had a go at using my judgement again today and these are the prices i have had matched so far let’s see how i get on against bfsp win or lose.
    15:45 Cheltenham Quarenta – Win 14.88
    Matched
    28-Oct-17
    08:20:24 16:00 Doncaster
    Atletico – Win 14.00
    Matched
    28-Oct-17
    15:45 Cheltenham
    Whataknight – Win 10.56
    Matched
    28-Oct-17
    15:10 Cheltenham Eastlake – Win 46.00
    Matched
    28-Oct-17
    14:00 Cheltenham
    Henryville – Win 65.00
    Matched
    28-Oct-17
    14:00 Cheltenham Doing Fine – Win 9.00

    16-40 kelso Sybil Grey partly matched (£1-51) win 240.0

    any advice on a strategy to get best prices or any hints/tips would be appreciated

  5. Cheers everyone for your replies. Just arrived looking forward.

    Hope I won’t be buying the round Josh, 14 of us!

    1. Always loved that horse, been a frustrating bugger to follow but pays off there, knew he had that in him to decimate a handicap chase field at this time of year. Classy. Raced where you want all chasers to race, on front end going their pace. Good start to the day! Let’s see if we can add one or two others for a cherry on top!

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