Heist- 1 point win – 14/1 (WH/BFred/SJ) 12/1 (gen) UP
Bob Tucker – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet 365/Skyb/BV) 10/1 (gen) UP
*Oh well those pokes didn’t do too much and they have all bumped into one there. No real shock, but given his small field experience/large field inexperience I was happy to take on.. much like with their Market Rasen winner, this seems to have been the making of him/the trip/pace/general experience seeing him hack up, making his 6/1 SP look massive! Oh for hindsight. The write up on him was fine, the judgement on price not so much but I am writing that in hindsight, I thought he was short enough pre race. Wrong. And so the mental anguish begins, great game! The selections didn’t really do much at all there, running as their odds suggested. Moving on.
Heist- I thought he looked a generous price given he is just solid. All race conditions are fine, he should run his race, he stays, he handles decent ground, he is fit, in form, and there is a chance the race sets up for him. The niggle- well it is his handicap mark, and when you take account of recent jockey claims he is quite above his last win – but, in the context of his price, he has yet to prove he can’t win from it, and as such I had a go. In a race full of horses with questionable summer form and indeed big stamina questions, I thought he was worth chancing. He may get out-paced and they never come back to him, but at 14s, I couldn’t help myself.
Bob Tucker- one thing jumped out, as per the video.. he is 3/4 in October in his career, one of those after a similar break/on seasonal reappearance. This could be the time to catch him, before the ground turns soft and he then rocks up in the spring to win a veterans’ chase. He should race prominently enough, is usually a solid jumper, good ground fine, and importantly he definitely stays. He is another whose mark may be at the ceiling of his ability but at the price I was happy to have a dart. He should be fit here, Sean Bowen get the leg up which is a positive as he knows the horse, and all in all I though 11/1 looked a shade too big.
Of the rest.. well Belmount looks the main danger I think, he may make 6/1 look big- but I thought it was about right- he is fit, in form, race conditions fine (question if this is properly firm but I suspect it is ‘winter’ good to firm so should be fine) and he will run his race. I think the last race he won fell apart a bit and may not have been that strong, but you could say that for plenty of recent form for many of the others I suppose. He will have to win from a mark he has has yet to win from.. but with the claim he is on 128..and those extra 2lb wouldn’t have stopped him the last day, or indeed when he won off 127. So, clearly a strong case can be made. Oh and Twister is in very good form as always at this time of year.. BUT, I could make a case in my own head for two that were twice the price, as simple as that. That mindset will serve me well this season, as it has done in the past. (and I have been guilty of abandoning my principles/methods a couple of times recently)
Always On The Run.. well he hits one of my strategies in the Members’ post and with that systems hat on I had a saver to cover my stakes above, at 8s. My head says no, I have just trusted the stats there really, and he is top rated Geegeez… he looks a doubtful stayer but it is not impossible that he can get an easy enough lead here. Possibly. We’ll see about that. He hasn’t conclusively proved he doesn’t stay, but the jury is out.
So, those would be my main 4 I suppose. I have left the Nicholls horse on price- clearly he could bolt up- he may do- but 5s wasn’t overly generous for one with his profile. He is unexposed but has been running in small field summer novice chases/hncps and has that to prove- this will be like no other chase he has run in has yet, surrounded by horses, going a decent clip. He may relish conditions but I can live with that at the price. He is the one interesting horse in here really, hence his price.
I can live with myself if anything else wins, I wasn’t destined to find them today. If one goes in at 8/1+ I will stare at them for an age- again- and wonder what I missed.
What do you fancy? (2 votes max!)
Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers
4.55 Notts – William Sayle (any odds)
J Fanshawe Kempton
6.25 – Noble Star
That’s the lot for today, GL with any bets.