Free Daily Post: 11/10/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

3.00 Ludlow

Heist- 1 point win – 14/1 (WH/BFred/SJ) 12/1 (gen) UP

Bob Tucker – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet 365/Skyb/BV) 10/1 (gen) UP

*Oh well those pokes didn’t do too much and they have all bumped into one there. No real shock, but given his small field experience/large field inexperience I was happy to take on.. much like with their Market Rasen winner, this seems to have been the making of him/the trip/pace/general experience seeing him hack up, making his 6/1 SP look massive! Oh for hindsight. The write up on him was fine, the judgement on price not so much but I am writing that in hindsight, I thought he was short enough pre race. Wrong. And so the mental anguish begins, great game!  The selections didn’t really do much at all there, running as their odds suggested. Moving on. 

 

VIDEO PREVIEW>>>>

 

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Notes…

Heist- I thought he looked a generous price given he is just solid. All race conditions are fine, he should run his race, he stays, he handles decent ground, he is fit, in form, and there is a chance the race sets up for him. The niggle- well it is his handicap mark, and when you take account of recent jockey claims he is quite above his last win – but, in the context of his price, he has yet to prove he can’t win from it, and as such I had a go. In a race full of horses with questionable summer form and indeed big stamina questions, I thought he was worth chancing. He may get out-paced and they never come back to him, but at 14s, I couldn’t help myself.

Bob Tucker- one thing jumped out, as per the video.. he is 3/4 in October in his career, one of those after a similar break/on seasonal reappearance. This could be the time to catch him, before the ground turns soft and he then rocks up in the spring to win a veterans’ chase. He should race prominently enough, is usually a solid jumper, good ground fine, and importantly he definitely stays. He is another whose mark may be at the ceiling of his ability but at the price I was happy to have a dart. He should be fit here, Sean Bowen get the leg up which is a positive as he knows the horse, and all in all I though 11/1 looked a shade too big.

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Of the rest.. well Belmount looks the main danger I think, he may make 6/1 look big- but I thought it was about right- he is fit, in form, race conditions fine (question if this is properly firm but I suspect it is ‘winter’ good to firm so should be fine) and he will run his race. I think the last race he won fell apart a bit and may not have been that strong, but you could say that for plenty of recent form for many of the others I suppose. He will have to win from a mark he has has yet to win from.. but with the claim he is on 128..and those extra 2lb wouldn’t have stopped him the last day, or indeed when he won off 127. So, clearly a strong case can be made. Oh and Twister is in very good form as always at this time of year.. BUT, I could make a case in my own head for two that were twice the price, as simple as that. That mindset will serve me well this season, as it has done in the past. (and I have been guilty of abandoning my principles/methods a couple of times recently)

Always On The Run.. well he hits one of my strategies in the Members’ post and with that systems hat on I had a saver to cover my stakes above, at 8s. My head says no, I have just trusted the stats there really, and he is top rated Geegeez… he looks a doubtful stayer but it is not impossible that he can get an easy enough lead here. Possibly. We’ll see about that. He hasn’t conclusively proved he doesn’t stay, but the jury is out.

So, those would be my main 4 I suppose. I have left the Nicholls horse on price- clearly he could bolt up- he may do- but 5s wasn’t overly generous for one with his profile. He is unexposed but has been running in small field summer novice chases/hncps and has that to prove- this will be like no other chase he has run in has yet, surrounded by horses, going a decent clip. He may relish conditions but I can live with that at the price. He is the one interesting horse in here really, hence his price.

I can live with myself if anything else wins, I wasn’t destined to find them today. If one goes in at 8/1+ I will stare at them for an age- again-  and wonder what I missed.

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What do you fancy? (2 votes max!)

Who are you backing?

  • Braqueur Dor (6%, 10 Votes)
  • Belmount (29%, 46 Votes)
  • Ozzy Thomas (2%, 4 Votes)
  • Always On The Run (13%, 21 Votes)
  • Forever Field (6%, 9 Votes)
  • Bob Tucker (9%, 15 Votes)
  • By The Boardwalk (11%, 17 Votes)
  • Exxaro (2%, 3 Votes)
  • Heist (14%, 22 Votes)
  • Super Scorpion (1%, 2 Votes)
  • One of the three outsiders (4%, 6 Votes)
  • None, too competitive, i'll just watch! (4%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 127

 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ day trainers

4.55 Notts – William Sayle (any odds)

J Fanshawe Kempton 

6.25 – Noble Star

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That’s the lot for today, GL with any bets.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

24 Comments

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  • As you say Josh a decent 3 mile Chase and a couple of other decent looking races at Ludlow, a few to look at over at Towcester and a decent handicap to close the Card at Nottingham; if it beats the deluge that’s due, far better than the dross Cards today and some decent NH on Thursday then Friday and Saturday we have 2 cracking days at York and Ascot and the opening meeting NH at Chepstow is always a cracking meeting.

    Ian@SP2A 2 weeks ago Reply


    • love Towcester the fences are not that demanding
      but the final hill is a killer.

      can be a good place for in running punters
      if you can judge they are going to fast up front
      then they can fall into a hole for the home bend.

      on soft/heavy ground they can be almost walking in the final furlong
      but I think on very fast ground like today the jockeys judgement of pace
      is the key if a horse goes to fast early on they have nothing left
      and can go from looking certain to place to dropping right out
      which make the 2.40 a very interesting race with three 7 lb claims riding
      it could be worth watching for the chance of an in running lay
      2 mile on g/f ground could see a suicide early gallop
      and things changing big time up the final hill.

      The 4.10 also has five of the 9 runner ridden by claiming jocks

      peter 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Agree totally Peter, my own problem from a tipping perspective there is I’ve probably gone the opposite way to the jockey’s and erred too much on stamina, and the result has been too many finishing well for places from too far back.

        It is a real test of horse and jockey and I have a view that at places like there; Carlisle and Exeter “in form” trainers do disproportionately well; as the onus on stamina will find out any niggles or viruses or horses not 100% spot on, as they are “under pressure” a lot longer up those hills than most tracks.

        I like the look of FRED OR PLED today ticks every box, a bit too short for me to formally tip, but I’ll be having few bob on him.

        Ian SP2A 2 weeks ago Reply


        • Fled the pled is very good over hurdles at Towcester and has won two races here
          over 2m4f and 2m7f both on fast ground.

          He fell early on in his chase career and that seems to have affected
          his confidence and in his last couple of races has been very hesitant and safe at his jumps.

          Back at his favourite track that has easy fences it could see him run his race and
          if he does he should win but I think you will know your fate quite early
          if he is still a worried horse he wont flow over the jumps
          and although they are easy fences if you lose ground at the jumps here there is no way back
          on an un forgiving course.

          Today could be make or break on his chasing career and if he backs off
          the fences will be over hurdles next time.

          Credit to David Dennis though he has the horse at the right track
          over the right distance on the right going with a top jockey
          if he can’t win today with everything in his favour
          then I would oppose him in any future chases.

          if I was playing in this race I would wait till they had jumped 4 fences
          you may have to take a shorter price if he wings them
          but if it starts stuttering at the jumps you would have saved a few quid

          PETER 2 weeks ago Reply


          • 4.10 Towcester
            Heurtevent hacked up on this course by 7l in a chase
            on that form he would be a good thing today
            only problem that was over 2 miles and today is over 3
            If the horse was a proven non stayer over 3 miles you could indeed
            put a line through him but he hasn’t tried the distance
            and you are relying on the Jockey Lee Edwards advice to up him
            to three miles to be correct
            Lee has ridden the horse in its races so I am sure it is his feedback that has
            inspired the shot at todays race

            ok there is a strong chance he wont get home but at 25/1 his speed could be an asset on the fast ground, if they don’t go a all out gallop he could be competitive

            25/1 in a race would usually suggest a no hoper but with a horse who is un exposed
            it could be a decent e/w play.

            to me if you have three 5/2 shots you go with the one that has done it before
            but when you go for an outsider it helps if they haven’t done it but done it
            at a shorter trip
            I am old enough to remember Desert Orchid he went off a massive price when he won his first king George
            because he was thought a 2mile horse

            peter 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Martin your 100/1 was something special and i will back the next one!!!
    cheers
    colin

    colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


    • The horse’s inexperience told and he did not get rolling until just too late! A healthy place return still and it will be well touted next time out.

      martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Wow Martin Great call 100/1 ran so well just got rolling
        to late.

        You were right about the Holland Sweden game
        Sweden just sat back and never looked like scoring
        but the dutch never looked like scoring 5
        your logic was better than my gut on that one.

        Paraquay put me about even on my lays
        but when Ecuador and Bolivia went in front
        thought it could be a good night but not to be
        laid off both games in running so made a small profit.

        What I am learning from this site you guys really know your stuff
        and your ideas have plenty of merit.

        in this game it is easy to get wrapped up in your own ideas
        but listening and learning is very important
        thanks guys for all your input
        much better than betfair blogs with guys just trying to get
        the better of each other and slagging each other off

        This site is the best for exchanging ideas I have come Across
        thanks Josh for allowing such a free flow of ideas
        its very good
        Pete

        peter 2 weeks ago Reply


        • All ideas welcome in these parts Peter- yep bar the odd grumpy moron, the ‘feel’ and atmosphere has always been decent really. And I have never had to ‘police’ comments, long may that continue!

          Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


          • Josh,
            Your site has reminded me of an adage my dad used to say

            he told me you can lose your money but never lose your sense of humour
            of course take it seriously and try your best but it is easy to get very intense about the
            whole thing and the fun goes out of it and once you are not enjoying it, you take away why you started betting in the first place.

            peter 2 weeks ago Reply


        • The Holland – Portugal double paid 9/4. The Argentina lay was looking good when they went one up but someone switched the Messi on switch on and he rattled in a hat trick. All the big boys came through in South America. Onto Saturday and back to the English grind. One or two good spots maybe but more on that later in the week. JP McManus’s often quotes the person who said ‘I learn much more by listening than speaking’. I have found that the more you listen to others the more you learn to understand other viewpoints. My main purpose of being a member here is to learn from others and use that to help me in my punting.

          martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • after a quick look through the only one of interest to me today is Frozen Over Ludlow 3-30 14-1 ew a CD winner and he gets the ground he likes today, still 7lb above his last win but worth a little ew.
    i’m off to Oliver’s Mount for lunch today so i suppose i aught to have a nibble on Mount Oliver Tow 4-10 🙂

    martin whittle 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Sp2a profit during September was 744.37. Please confirm the value of points used to achieve this very acceltable profit. Thank you.

    Bernard Buxton 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Hi Bernard;

    I’m guessing that figure is on the website?. If so it is based on 10 points each way / 20 point win (as advised) to SP which is the standard reporting mechanism – so may be simpler to equate as 74 points net profit to SP to 1 point each way / 2 point win as advised.

    I was just about to add another fancy today with a belt of heavy rain coming in at Nottingham and the yard just cranking up again and some nice soft ground form ITALIAN HEIRESS in the 4.55 looks a very solid each way poke at 7/1.

    Ian SP2A 2 weeks ago Reply


  • For what its worth I make the race between ALWAYS ON THE RUN…..top rated 17…BY THE BOARDWALK…11…..and BOB TUCKER and EXXARO ….rated …9.

    I always back more than 1 in a race, especially a race like this at such good prices. Reduced winnings yes, but more chances.
    I am also playing in the 4.10 as well.

    Good luck .

    denis.

    DENIS 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Nothing stands out for me today but a few bets – In the 3.00 Lud I like Forever Field at 8/1. He will be up there and may stay and as he is ground dependent this will likely be his last race before we see him again in the spring. I would guess he must be for for this. In the 3.30 Not I like Knight In Armour at 20/1. It looks to be the Johnston second string but has a low weight and may catch these napping? Next I tackle a maiden!! In the 5.55 KP I like at the price 7/1 the Stoute runner, Moqarrar. The horse should come on for his first run. Finally I would go with Airway in the 7.25 KP for James Fanshawe. They think that he may be above this class and so if that is the case the horse would need to win this race.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Morning guys and gals,
    Not my usual place to post be trying to give non members a bit of fun today and hopefully a nice priced winner or two.
    Monrocco
    Showmethewaytoavrilo
    Money in my pocket
    Eskendash
    GL

    jarrodholmes68 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Born Legend 1.55 plumpton

    Just over 3 weeks ago watched this run an interesting race and noted as potentially having more ability than the final placing indicated.

    Didn’t settle and took on The Raven Master for the lead, made sketchy jumps at 2nd and 3rd, but rousted after each to go back up and dispute. Was still there at around 3 out even with the pulling and the errors but you could tell wouldn’t be able to keep going, Aspell gave him one wack between 2 out and last and then let him coast.

    Time may tell that those in front that day are useful.

    Good trainer, good jockey, maybe the plan will be to settle the horse better this time.

    I’m not a great pace reader and don’t know what the early pace was like, maybe it was slow enough for BL to get up and dispute again each time and have enough energy to keep there. Still, at a crazy 100-1 in a few places it may be worth a couple of quid EW to find out what we’ve got. If it remains SP 100-1 then BF will be anyone’s guess from 150 up to the 400s. Might even get from 14 to 20 on first 4.

    Problem…there are a couple of others been waiting for in the same race…Phoenix Dawn (trainer thinks will go well) and Sonic Wind (over from Ireland and sire has had a few good quality 2m handicappers)…allied to this the first and second favourite are clearly reasonably well regarded.

    This could be an interesting race for a Plumpton Ludlow juvenile maiden.

    Steve C 2 weeks ago Reply


    • 100/1 at present. The sort of price you want in a Maiden Hurdle. hard to pick anything in this race with confidence. Good luck.

      martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Good luck with the 100/1 Steve.
      Juvenile hurdlers can improve massively
      from their first run so yours is not a complete no hoper
      The one I took out from the Plumpton race
      was the Third High Wells he travelled and jumped well until the
      hill caught him out on the run in.
      On the much flatter course at Ludlow think he will be right there at the finish
      Seamus Durack is a decent trainer so he is carrying my money

      PETER 2 weeks ago Reply


      • No show from BL here, and I don’t think the yard were expecting that bad. Was ridden totally differently from the last time, held up and never anywhere near.

        Still might have hidden ability.

        The good news?…….250 on BF again next time as long as it’s a reasonable field. Might be worth watching at the start and see if he lines up to race more prominently. Alternative is wait for maybe 25-1 in a class 5 handicap down the line, provided they don’t do something stupid like run 2nd in a maiden.

        Steve C 2 weeks ago Reply


        • Yep, you’d think now they would be aiming to get a mark? But may need to show more in order to get on. I suppose if he was keen on front end the last day you can understand being held up- maybe decided to try and teach him to race- i’d keep an eye on him for sure, pop up somewhere no doubt!

          Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


  • watch how Jonjoela goes in the next at Tow….believe the yard have been targetting a Towcester mares handicap…but instinct says not this one.

    Stephen Cross 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Ran as expected (and hoped for!)

      Didn’t have time to expand before…so….

      yard reported some time ago that this is a strong sort who might be suited to a Towcester slog. Runs in maidens/novices were for education, today’s handicap might have been in mind but I suspect the horse isn’t looking for a G/F ground battle against the likes of Plantagenet.

      So we’re probably waiting for a soft ground Nov/Dec 2 and half miler which should level the playing field a little. Today’s P should ensure some hefty odds to find out if there’s anything in it.

      Steve c 2 weeks ago Reply


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