Members Daily Post: 11/10/17 (complete)

Section 1 + notes…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Nottingham

4.55 – Faithful Creek (micro class) ES I1 

 

JUMPS

Ludlow

3.00- Always On The Run (hncp chase) ES H3 G1 8/1  UP

 

Towcester

3.10- Castafiore (micro runs) 15/2

4.10 – Heurtevent (micro class) 22/1 UP 33/1

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/75,27p, -6.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/148, +17.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (18/87, +79.5)

Nothing much to add today, not ‘bet of the day’ or ‘notes’ (that will count to that total anyway…)

*

‘Others’ 

I will mention Always On The Run.. it’s a 3m + , C4+ handicap chase, and as such i’ve had a good look at it in the free post- well as I write I have ‘tipped’ two others in it with the write up to follow. Those are the only races I attack ‘cold’ (no stats/trends/shortlists/starting points) and there are two there that looked over-priced to my eyes. BUT..  that ‘tipping’ brain/bank is treated separately in my own head to other systematic content… and as such, given he is an ES, and does have some supporting evidence with that G1, I have thrown £5 at him, which is half my usual ES stake – I don’t think he will stay, or in any case has it to prove- but there is a chance the 7lb claim helps (clutching a straws a bit) and more of a chance that they try and make all- that pace angle is what has convinced me to have a nibble, just in case. He is 8s, which just about allows the play. He may bolt up and i’ll be cursing not having more on, we shall see! I am struggling to see why he should better his last two runs. Maybe they are trying to get his mark down before making all in a 2m4f chase somewhere, back here possibly! He, like a few in this, has ‘summer form’ also. And some of the winter boys are reappearing now. I won’t put anyone off Belmount for NTD below either- solid chance, I could just make a case for two that were twice the price, I won’t be shocked if he wins at 6s. I haven’t backed him though. 3 is enough in that race!

Castafiore- well, yes he is unexposed but I have been influenced by the fact he is rock bottom of all three ratings sets! (that is a negative comment, so ignore!! Esp if you like his chance…) On the figures it would suggest he actually hasn’t done much on paper as yet. We shall see if those numbers are correct or in this instance mean sod all. As yet I haven’t backed him- being only 4 I suspect he may just have gone off the boil last year after 4 relatively quick runs. A question over well-being though, after a break. But this ground is an unknown, as is stamina up this hill (could relish it, unknown) and of course he has a fitness question- and whether or not he is well handicapped is a puzzle also. That, along with the ratings, makes him a loser I am personally happy to miss. They happen. He is ‘only’ 7/1, 15/2, and not one of those horror 12/1+ jobs. He is currently the outsider of the field and i’ll watch the market with interest. He is the type where if he goes 10s, 12s + I may go sod it and throw £5 at him, never scared of drifters in these parts. He is lightly raced, that’s what any backers will rightly cling to.

*

 

*

Re-cap… not too much to say about Tuesday’s fare.. Sellingallthetime ran up to his mark I think, bumping into one, 15/2>4/1, no complaints there. Ran his race and 15/2 was too big. The Midgley horse could well still be running… I’ll keep an eye on Crystal Sunstone who to my eye travelled like the best horse in that race… there wasn’t much good in that going and the ‘light shower’ they were forecast must have been quite heavy. In any case the ground looked atrocious- I don’t think she picked up in it when asked, and also looked a tad green still under pressure. They will find races with here. On to keep an eye on, either back end this season or early next on decent ground/with more experience under her belt.

Some positive for the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ poll.. well done to the 8 of you who appear to have left the lot, right this time! But, the one over 50% most fancied did run best. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues in future.

*

3.Micro System Test Zone

NTD

3.00 Lud – Belmount (22/1<)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None.

 

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Always On The Run is an interesting one, or maybe a slightly strange one (depending how you look at it!). He ran in what look to be two decent P2Ps with Lift the Latch and American winning…..one where he “wkend and PU two out” and one where he actually beat American before being demoted for wandering. So essentially he does stay 3miles, however, on his course form he’s won 4 races, 2races@2ms 1@2m1 and 1@2m4..I have to say i would be worried about him at 3 miles? On the trainers quotes 2miles suits him…yet hes upping him in trip again, where he seems to have run out of fuel on a few occasions already? George obviously knows best as he trains the horse….just finding it interesting/puzzling!

    1. Quite! … everything we can see on paper under rules suggests there is a major stamina question in a race you wouldn’t think will be run at a crawl. He puts his young son up also which suggests he may be giving him experience on a solid jumper..but a non stayer. I’ve no idea why he should improve on his last two runs. Yet to look at the race in depth and form a judgement on others as yet. Maybe they all collapse into a hole and he scrapes victory!

    1. from now on really, they all get a look, 3m+ handica chase, C4+.. any ‘tips’ posted in free post, albeit more at home when the ground is testing, and not so many fitness questions.. dreaming of another +90 point month like Jan 2016!
      Just having a look at that 3pm now.. will return to it in the morning.. but it does have a ‘winner by default’ feel and not sure i’d want anything under 8s. (i’m a bit anti the George horse but would feel a bit nervous having nothing on, esp as ES G1 next to his name) Feels a funner race, albeit Bob Tucker at 12s keeps staring at me! I’ll sleep on it.

  2. Tracker time.
    Satchville flyer 5.20 kempton
    I’m pretty sure they ain’t gonna let him rest until he wins one. Less testing conditions than last time.
    So might be there about.

    1. GL Joseph… and sorry to be a pedant… but I for one like to read why others fancy what they do.. not asking for War and Peace obviously, a short sentence/a few words will do… but i like understanding why you like something- and I suspect it would make others more likely to look at horse/follow you in etc. You may well have spotted something that no one else has etc…
      Josh

      1. the reason I have backed this is it came out on top of my own personal system too it comes out on top pace wise and will be hard to peg back is at the right weight and fit which most of these are not

        1. Job done! 🙂 Cheers.. just had a look at the pace as you mention it, and yea can see why you’re interested at that price. Looks like being up there for a long way. GL

  3. Belmount for me Josh , NTD flying at the moment ,he`s gone up 5lb for that effort ,but, fitness and Jamie taking off 3lb should level things out .In my book should be closer to 9/2 . I know Sam has gone for another one and that does make me wary ,especially after Uttoxeter Sunday (Audacious Plan ,know it didn`t win ,but, had the beating of the NTD horse!).

    1. Hi Stewart, all a game of opinions this 🙂 6/1 does looks solid enough, but my eyes kept being drawn to the two bigger priced ones. He does look bombproof, the most solid of options..
      I wouldn’t read anything into the jockey bookings- Sam wouldn’t have had the choice given it is a Nicholls horse, and as it is a young/unexposed one, who he may still be learning, would have been rare for him to let STD ride another.
      Likewise.. STD rode a shorty Dr Newland maiden hurdler at NA the other week, when I think he could have ridden his dads horse that qualified for us.. Bargary was on, and he won at 5/1, STD well beat. So, I would never let jockey bookings put you off.. and Nicholls has a few decent ones to choose from- he often matches up the rider to who knows the horse best, esp if a more tricky one that say Schofield of Bowen may have been doing all the home work on etc.
      GL, he’ll give you a run for your money, prob win by 5 and i’ll be left staring out the window thinking ah yes, 6/1 for the most solid horse in the race, it was so obvious!! 🙂
      Josh

  4. Not a fancy but I have a 1% stake in SIR LANCELOTT in the 525 at Nottingham today who’s first run it is for our syndicate. The vibes are not that he will win so far, but wish him well and hope he comes back safe and sound. Lifelong dream achieved today, give him a cheer please!

  5. I’ve backed the George horse at Ludlow today. His sub 11/1 hcp chasers are 14 from 42 over the last 5 years here and he only runs the one horse today.

    Also, as some of you might know, I do like to find a quirky angle or two and I find that jumpers who finished 1st or within 5 lengths of the winner whilst wearing a hood LTO, fare very well taking the hood off next time!

    1. GL Chris.. (that’s geegeez SOTD Chris…) ah yes I did note the hood coming off but forgot to mention it- whether that makes him more free or not we shall see! Wouldn’t want that over this trip- but yep I won’t fall off my seat if he wins..
      ha, yep that is quirky, maybe one of the quirkiest yet!
      Josh

  6. 5.30 Gowran Park is an interesting and difficult heat but i am struggling to find anything worthwhile elsewhere. I may take a couple of big price e/w punts in this as with the ground, and suspect favourites, i think it could be exploitable.

    My two against the field: Massini’s Trap 25/1 and Laid Back Luke 20/1.

    MT is interesting for me as compared to a few much more prominent in the market, he has a much higher rating over obstacles. He’s run in a lot of the big handicaps last year whilst not showing a lot more recently in them, he has shown form in a few hurdles at a higher level than most of these have raced in. He has had a pipe opener over 1m4 at the Curragh, where interestingly he only finished 1.5 ls behind the market fav. That horse had 2 runs previous to that. Stats wise, he wouldnt be a stand out, but i do think he’s interesting.

    LBL seems very unexposed with fair form of obstacles, finishing close to powersbomb in a chase. After almost 8mnths off, he finished 4.75ls off Iolani at this venue last month. He is entitled to strip fitter for this race, and hopefully has room for improvement compared to a lot of the field. He is also weighted a lot more favourably with Iolani today but of course, he will need to improve like i have said he possibly could.

    Within the race, i would fear Henry’s Girl after running well to finish 2nd to Rashaan, but that was in May. He has Colin Keane on board, for me the best jockey in Ireland and needing as many wins as he can!

    Iolani is owned by Supreme, a syndicate i am involved in with two mares. He has wind problems, and it is safe to say they were surprised he won the race he did and has since disappointed over hurdles. He does have the same conditions as his last win though so really he should have a fair chance here…even though confidence doesn’t seem high again.

    1. Jack, I note Gary O’Brien puts up Nelson Road each way in this race and puts forward a good argument. What do you think of his selection?

      1. Yep he’s certainly shortened in the market as well! He won at my local track and on a rare meeting i missed as well!

        The third that day, Neverushacon has franked the form finishing 5th on Sunday in the Cesarewitch..

        it’s interesting that his first win came over 2m2 in what was a slog. I wonder whether the extreme trip suited him more than the 1m6?

        Trainer and jockey wouldnt have great records at the track either, so he wouldnt be my first choice. To be honest, the two i have put up will be 1/2 point bets as its the only race ive got involved in today. A poor days racing if you ask me, other than a race or two at Kempton whcih aren’t betting prospects either!

      1. Hi Tony,

        Another winner for Colin Keane! want him to win it myself!

        Remember that horse ran at down royal in magners derby….not often we get 1.2mill horses running up here haha

    2. Wallop! Well done Jack, glad I read that post, do like a nice 20/1 shot 🙂 (for change) but good fun and a great end to a fairly quiet day for me (may well have won back some 3m+ chase losses!)
      Super effort. Easy lead, kicked turning in, never in doubt.
      Josh

  7. Im drawn towards Castafiore Tow 3.10 also , ok call me a longsdon fan at this time of the year 🙂 , but the trainer did seem to like her on his stable tour and a few of her juvenile runs have worked out well … theres enough in it for an interest imo

    1. Yep, I may be cursing being driven by the ratings… being bottom of all three has swayed me- but if you ignored all that, at the price, it is the kind of profile i’d be interested in! We shall see what the BFSP/BF price is looking likely to be… GL

  8. I’m going to Worcester racecourse tomorrow with my husband so I wondered if anyone had any thoughts on runners please?
    Thanks

    1. Hi Linda, not much help on the stats front as per tomorrow’s post, I had a quick look through but nothing jumped out…tomorrow morning looks fairly quiet so I’ll see if I can have a better look/short vid maybe.
      Josh

    2. Worcesters a good card tomorrow having checked it! A lot of potential on show, and a nice mares beginners chase! I liked the look of Counter shy on his 2nd run….but no price sadly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.