Members Daily Post: 10/10/17 (complete)

TIP/Notes/Section 1/VIDEO (notebook horses)/Results

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers



4.10 – Sellingallthetime (micro dist) H1 I1 15/2 2nd 4/1

4.40 – Percys Princess (micro dist) H3 13/2 UP 20/1

5.10 – La Haule Lady (micro class) 8/1 UP 9/1



5.00 –

General Alexander (all hncps) I3 12/1 2nd 8/1

Rapid Ranger (micro age) H3 G3 11/4 WON 3/1 



4.20 – Gala Celebration (micro class) I3 20/1 3rd 14/1

4.50- Crystal Sunstone (all hncps) ES 16/1 UP 10/1

5.20 –

Iley Boy (micro class) 20/1 UP

Rianna Start (micro dist) I3 7/1 UP

Lord E (micro dist) I1 16/1




H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 8th Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 8th Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  –  … or failing that… 



2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/147, +18.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (18/85, +81.5)

4.50 – Crystal Sunstone – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP 10/1

There are three horses from the list above that look most interesting to me. I’ll mention the other two in a moment but this one was the biggest price and the only real ‘unexposed’ one – so, in I go! The ‘bet of the day’ flat ‘tips’ could do with a biggie going in! There isn’t too much to say other than this one makes handicap debut, drops from C5 maidens into a weak Brighton C6 handicap and runs on slightly better ground. He may not be good enough but these connections can do little wrong at the moment and on paper he is the most interesting in this race. Maybe i’d have preferred a distance move also but having just watched the video back of his last run I thought his odds were well worth a go. He was sent off 50/1 there against some well bred horses from big powerful yards. He led/was prominent until about 3f out, was asked for an effort and plodded on a bit until 2f out and then faded. He was given a very easy time, some light taps of the whip before just being ridden out. There is a chance the soft blunted him a tad, it will be slightly better ground here today. And he clearly didn’t look in the same class of those in front. But, it looked a run of promise. The trainer isn’t prolific with handicap debutant winners, but does have them.. a 30% win/place SR the last 2 years.. o/1,2p at Brighton the last 5 years. Also, the P/L figure for those suggests that a few of them have gone in at tasty odds, so the market may be no guide. I like to see this type backed but I won’t be overly concerned if not. He could try and make all/be prominent again which could be fun. It’s impossible to rule him out with any confidence at those odds, he is an ES in any case, but is definitely worth some support.


I’ll mention two others that I have had nibbles on..

Sellingallthetime– 2nd this double top rated qual is worth a dabble at 15/2, 7/1. He has just been very consistent this year and a repeat of recent efforts should give me a run for my money. Two starts ago he raced in a C4, last time out in a C2. Back to a C5 today. He has also dropped a couple of pounds. A repeat of that run here three starts ago should put him right in the mix and 15/2 seemed a bit too big to my eyes. There is also a chance that he can make all/dictate in this if wanting too. Albeit SDS is riding in this and he loves being up there if he can be. Trainer/Jockey are 1/5,4p in handicaps at the track,inc once on this horse, over CD in a C4 in April. Solid, consistent, he should out-run these odds.

La Haule Lady –  UP i’ll probably get what I deserve for having £5 on the nose on this one but I thought 8/1 was decent enough… she has yet to win a race but there has been the odd run of promise. I am ignoring that last run where she had headgear on and it was on the AW- two possible excuses. Looking at the two runs before that is what interested me- a repeat of those puts her right in the mix. I don’t know if she will handle slight cut in the ground, an unknown. But, she gets a load of pace (on paper) to aim at here which is what she needs. And she gets one of the best amateur jockeys around on her back. Trainer/jockey are 3/6,4p when teaming up.  This one is a bit of a poke but I thought she was more likely than some today, to run her race. We shall see! Not one to go mad on or have too much faith in, but 8s allows me to roll the dice.


Hopefully one of those three can go in, i’d take that right now.

As always, don’t read much into me not mentioning any other horses. These are subjective views on those that looked most interesting to my eyes. No doubt one of the other rogues listed above may leave me red faced! Low grade stuff today. (Lord E is a strategy #6 qualifier… Top rated, 6/1+ on morning prices- those I enter next to horses name)


Oh, and for a bit of fun… ‘the wisdom of the crowd’.. (poll closes at 12.30 pm)


[poll id=”17″]


3.Micro System Test Zone



4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results: advised strategy links UPDATED above in Key.

Summary … top level.. IF you had bet every qualifier, every time they hit a strategy (so would include multiple bets)

2nd -8th Oct

Flat: 6/22,9p, +17.5 points

Jumps: 8/25,14p, +41.5 points

Total: 14/47, 23p, +59 points

around +40 points I think if just backing any strategy qualifier once (inc all 6 for Flat, and treble rated for Jumps. Will update docs above asap… 29% win SR.. well that’s way above historical averages for nearly all the strategies.. which only means one thing… a correction at some point. That means losers. Not to dampen the mood, but I can’t think we will be winning +59 points/+40 points ever week…wouldn’t be a bad monthly average though!



Multiple quals (so, however many ‘M’s horse has next to name.. ‘m’ for ‘micro’ as per report in key)…

38 bets / 12 wins / +33 points

Just backing every qual once , 1 point win… 19 bets / 6 wins / +13.5 points.

Hopefully he can build on that in the final 2/3rds of October.



A ‘notebook’ video… 5 or so horses that caught my eye last week from the blog content/races that qualifiers ran in etc… they may or may not be worth keeping an eye on moving forwards! (only 15 minutes, hurrah!)



Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. Josh, on Monday I had Bounty Pursuit via M Blake from the All Weather TTP pack. You did not put it up as a stat? I follow the pack and so found it at 16/1. Did it fall off through time or some poor performance lately? I do not think so but cannot remember for sure.

    1. Hi Martin… ive never posted the qualifiers from that AW stats report anywhere on the blog. That report was more experimental and smaller stats etc. I’ll do another one for this winter and go back to the flat template. See what it throws up. But as with that report I won’t be posting qualifiers etc, there to use as you please.

      1. OK yes makes sense as too much work I guess to keep posting them. I set a level of +30 and back all over that. Like you say use it as you see fit.

  2. Residing on my tracker for Tuesday are.
    Rapid ranger 5.00 Leicester
    Cupids arrow 4.30 Leicester

  3. A couple I like the look of tomorrow:

    3.15 Brighton – Moseeb 15/2
    SBS 4 winners from 5 with his 2 YO’s at Brighton in October. Won a c3 on debut, looks to have been running tidily in other runs this year in higher grade races than today. Looks ok on breeding with a 16% s/r of its sires horses over C&D.

    5.30 Leicester – Spun Gold 7/1
    2nd start since switching to Charlie Fellowe’s yard, first start it finished 2nd 1.5 lengths behind the winner in a class 5. Dropped in class and with a notable jockey booking in Paddy Bradley, as they are 2 from 3 when teaming up. Trainer also in very good form, with 4 winners from 12 in the last 14 days.

      1. I assume you mean with Spun Gold? If so yes last run was on the AW, so today’s soft going may not suit, it has also drifted a bit this morning so you could be right. Trainer/jockey combo (last 2 years) + trainer form is what drew me in, plus the trainer switch obviously has had an effect: Only had 5 races in total, 4 with Cumani and ran poorly in each, one run for Fellowes and it was a close up 2nd place, which suggests his training style has sparked the horse up. Price i think is reflective of all of its form and not taking into account the change of fortunes since switching trainer. Cue a N/R now due to conditions 🙂

  4. hi josh

    you know how good hugh taylor is of attheraces, the bookies know too, and slash the prices within seconds of being posted . what i have noticed is that a lot of his selections are horses in races that have produced quite a lot of winners from all that ran next time out. if you look at todays write up you will see what i mean. he also mentions about time being good compared to another race on card, another favourite thing of his. i know you are not short of things to do! but have you a quick way of identifying these sort of races, if so might be able to pick similar selections to hugh taylor without prices being ruined

    1. Hugh Taylor is well out of form over the past three months and a bit. For £100 stakes you would be circa £3,000 down over that period. Punters must be backing them blindly if that is the case and not analysing his recent performance.

      1. Whilst he had a very bad July/August he bounced back v well in September. Before that he was pretty much in profit or very close to it every month. Think punters can do worse than follow him Martin if you can get his prices especially. Long term hes profitable it’s that simple. Fairly sure he had a big one land over the weekend to?

      2. Yep , that is only 30 points Martin?? Hardly a bad run, I mean I will ship 30 points in a week on here at some point, across notes/strategies combined etc- that will happen, followed by a 16/1 x2 winners to wipe them out and put us straight back into profit 🙂

        He is clearly a master of his craft. I have never followed him but I probably should read the odd write up more to improve my understanding of the game- but I will be leaving his approach to times etc to him. Enough to focus on here, and we are not doing too badly.

        1. I agree only 30 points not a disaster. I disagree that he bounced back very well in September although he did improve. Hopefully he will come back to form before Father Christmas visits? It does get on my nerves when they say Aught Taylor and Gary O’Brien are ‘red hot’ when they are not. Gary is going OK but not pulling up trees..

          1. After the discussion about Hugh Taylor, I’m glad I checked his tips for today. Prost just won which he tipped at 25/1, I managed to get 22.0 on the exchange.

    2. Both horserace base & ggz have features to show horses coming out of ‘hot races’ i.e races that have produced multiple winners or placers since. Unfortunately I don’t think in HRB you can systemise this but instead have to run the report each day to look for hot races.

      In terms of sectional timings you can get these from timeform at a price but again dont think you can systemise them. Picking based on sectionals is a fine art anyway and there alot of variables that impact speeds i.e what pace a race is run at, the horse’s running style and all of the trainer’s tactics that day with each horse. So I don’t think a system would be that successful myself.

    3. Hi Malcolm…
      I don’t have any intention of trying to better Hugh Taylor.. who in any case operates at around a 2% ROI I think, possibly to advised prices unless that is SP, which can clearly then be marked up. And his recent troubles highlight that there is no silver bullet to this game.
      There is no quick way to do anything in this game- you cut corners/don’t put the work in, you lose. That is one thing I have learnt.
      And i have no interest in the time element- my interest stretches as far as knowing the Gegeegeez and Inform Speed ratings are decent,and my job is to find the best way to use them to compliment my trainer picks.
      Time may not be a problem, but brain/mental capacity would be. You really have to try and focus in this game, and trainer stats are generally my ‘thing’. As is now wholly focusing on my own blog content as the starting point, esp the members’ content- my energy is best spent getting the most out of that- not trying to develop any new ‘time/race analysis’ skill.

      BUT.. your form point is valid… and I do look at the ‘what next’ feature in geegeez to see if any horses above ran in ‘hot’ races and that does play a role in my own analysis. The likes of Nick M and a few others on here use ‘hot form’ as a way in also.

      I wouldn’t use that ‘time’ approach of Hugh’s as a new way to attack racing ‘cold’- but with the daily qualifiers, there could be something to explore in term of times of races against others that raced over same CD on the same day etc, when comparing. Such are the vagaries of ground, wind direction, rail movements etc I have never been one of the ‘time boys or girls’ – not really for me. Gets a bit too scientific for this History/Politics grad!!


  5. I to use geegeez and on days when the raceing is not very good it helps to think outside the box today I am using a fav method of mine called pace a very potent weapon and I have had some very big bets up using small stakes todays bet is as follows noah amor 7/30 shelneverwalkalone 2/10 moseeb 3/15 gorams cave 3/25 ocean temptress 4/30 back them blind in a each way lucky 31

    1. best set of racing tools around for me Joseph, albeit I am biased, and haven’t tried many others. And I suppose it is premium, but well worth it for me. You do need the time to use it I suppose, and find an approach that works for you- sounds like with the pace you have one. Agree on low grade days, or in adverse conditions, it is very good- and yep has improved me as a punter no end- plenty of boxes to think outside of!
      GL today.

      1. it works very well but I had to tweak about with until I found out how to make it work better for me you don’t look at anything but pace not the jockey not the trainer not the horse not even the price you will bomb out a lot but 3 or 4 of these bets come up a year and it pays for the next 2 or 3 years bets

  6. thanks for reply josh, interesting comments, the problem is getting the prices, if you could his ROI is over 100% every year, not sure is that out of form, gave 25 to 1 winner, if you could get price, a few days ago and had few nice winners last week also, anyway you are getting some great results as things are

    1. Yep, he is clearly a master of his craft… he will be getting his prices, bookies will keep the odd account of his as a signal to know what to slash no doubt. I can’t think he is even at 100% ROI for the best price??? That is just mad… ?? But is clearly very successful, anything in the 20-40% long term is bloody good.
      Yep, for now I am best focused on making our little approach the best it can be 🙂
      Many ways to win/do well in this game.

  7. On a quiet day some thoughts based on today’s Members thread.

    Call me a conspiracy theorist but consider that the Racing Post (in particular) and At The Races rely, long term, on advertisers to fund their product. Predominantly, these advertisers are bookmakers. If the bookmakers are paying each company X in advertising revenue then they certainly don’t want a very successful tipster to take it all back from them when punters flock to back winning selections.

    There is a theory that Pricewise (certainly) and Hugh Taylor are not so much selecting horses that will/can win but more they are identifying errors the bookmaker has made (where the selection is overpriced given his perceived chance), much as Josh is doing successfully here. Given these ‘bookmaker ricks’ are then so publicly highlighted (and splashed across the front page when successful, as some must be statistically) such tipsters attract a huge following, which simply then feeds the myth of how good they, the tipsters, are.

    Much is made of winners and, in particular, the Racing Post deliberately avoid posting p/l figures for Pricewise. At The Races do publish Hugh Taylor figures but to advertised prices (which are impossible to get) rather than a more achievable price, often some 50% less.

    The conspiracy theory comes from the bookmakers’ position in all of this. They are delighted to lay a winner on their own terms and consider how many punters ring up for the 25/1 only to be told the horse is now 16/1. How many take the view “I can’t miss a big Pricewise winner” so take the 16/1 offered anyway. Replicate this over hundreds, perhaps thousands of punters on a Saturday (all of whom are taking the ‘now correct’ price) and calculate how much the bookmakers are ACTUALLY winning out of Pricewise and Hugh Taylor customers over time?

    Watch each respective market after the tips have been released to see that after the initial (big) price shift there is often not a great deal of activity (many even drift). The bookmakers will mop up what they can at the ‘new price’ and Racing Post/At The Races will run the hype the following day after a winner ‘at advertised prices’ so everyone is a winner. All except the punter who doesn’t keep records and can’t understand why he loses money over time of course…!

    Finally, with regard to another part of the thread. I’m happy to admit I am a “time boy’ to nick Josh’s phrase and it certainly is possible to systemise using sectional data. The issues involved are detailed but certainly less complex than is assumed. 90% of ‘Sectionista’ approach the issues from the wrong direction and then become disillusioned with the workload. While the work is admittedly time consuming it is a very different ‘route to market’ where selections are often hidden. In clear view but hidden nonetheless.

    Again, just some thoughts on a quiet day and good luck to all.

    1. You’re welcome to post on all quiet days Steve, with posts like that!! 🙂 Plenty there to ponder…

      yep my ‘time boy’ remark isn’t disparaging – at this moment in time I know my own capabilities and probably more importantly what makes me jump out (well, crawl) of bed on a Monday morning – at the moment that isn’t sectionals and time analysis! Who knows, in time maybe. It is the one big data development you’d think is on it’s way, and we shall see how that develops. Clearly a few companies have a vested interest in ‘Time’ becoming more mainstream. I for one won’t mind if it does, as it will make my little trainer behaviour world more niche. But, I always try to think of ways to improve the ‘starting points’ and my own interpretation.

      I wouldn’t mind understanding how you approach sectionals etc, and the right way to do it! Not that you’d want to reveal your secrets 🙂

      The tipping point is interesting.. i believe that those mentioned are doing everything for the right reasons- no issues morally there, although there will always be questions given the issues you point to in terms of advertising revenue etc… but, like you say, you’d have to think the bookies benefit from such tipping in the long run. They must. They will know to the pounds and pence how their business holds up against tips from Taylor and Pricewise.

      Taylor is at least educational.


      1. Josh.

        Your comments fully understood regarding sectionals and I know your ‘time boy’ label wasn’t meant to be offensive. There are many aspects to this game (that’s the beauty of it) and the key is to finding an edge, wherever that may be.

        I agree that Tom Segal and Hugh Taylor are doing the job they are paid for and doing it very well; Pricewise given his race restraints (not coincidental that he attacks the hardest races of the day) and Hugh Taylor, who as you say, is educational in his methods.

        In truth, though, finding shorteners is not that hard**. It is finding the overpriced horse then releasing it to the masses that creates the stampede to get on and subsequently the status then bestowed on the tipster – “wow, every selection halves in price, he knows the time of day”..!

        You have your own niche, as Hugh Taylor et al do, and if you had thousands of followers you’d be no different to them. Maybe one day, huh?


        **bet365, for example, are renowned for pricing ‘loosely’ when initially releasing their prices the night before racing simply because they know they aren’t going to lay very much BUT at the same time need the card mark so they know how the market should be shaped for the following day

        1. Ha – I am very conscious as to numbers/prices, you have to be really.. I have no idea what causes that tipping point of price collapse, in term so of numbers/timing/reputation etc.
          I did have a mild panic at Bath a couple weeks back when a couple I mentioned strongly/hit a few strategies absolutely crashed in price – that was just after the big rush after my internal ‘re launch’ – but, all evidence since is that was nothing to do with us.
          Evening prices hold steady, esp for strategies, which is the main thing. And why I do the notes in the morning- well, one of the reasons- my head is normally fried by 6ish and I’d rather look fresh the next day – but at least I know what prices are generally available and can make a judgement.
          I don’t think we have any impact on the market, and that’s the way it needs to remain. I was going to do an external big launch in November, but have scrapped that idea I think. I want to be confident everything is working as it should before inviting X amount of newbies inside. Next year 🙂


  8. I have noticed over the summer months that Gary O Brien’s Irish tips on ATR were quite good. I started tracking them last month to investigate further, does anyone here follow/track his bets?

    1. Joe H- No i don’t track them hopefully someone might…he doesn’t do bad either…moves markets also.Not sure he’d be as profitable as Taylor.

    2. I wouldn’t know his results Joe, but without doubt he is very shrewd and clearly knows his stuff… very highly thought of amongst other analysts I think. Will learn plenty following him no doubt if nothing else – but there is that general point about how close you can get to advised prices with any tipsters on ATR/RP etc- in theory the advised price is deemed value by said Tipster, and if you can’t get anywhere near that then long term woudl be tough. I’d have thought his results are posted somewhere, odd if not. Josh

      1. He’s definitely not on Taylor’s profit level.
        The prices for his tips don’t seem to get cut as quick (over the last 6wks), the benefit of multiple accounts helps massively though.
        I couldn’t find any results on the site, I tweeted him a few times querying if they were available but got no response.
        I’ll have to corner him in leopardstown at the end of the month!
        Anyway I’ll continue to track it and post results once there’s a decent sample size.

    3. As above I do track them every day. He is doing OK and is £838 up to £100 stakes Since the beginning of July. You cannot complain about such a return.

      1. Thanks Martin, he had some nice priced winners over the summer. Interesting to see how the winter months do.
        The Irish tips complement this site nicely to make a good portfolio.

  9. Steve- Interesting theory… is possible it is the case, in that very few get Taylors price and thus he is tipping off the bookies.

    I am not sure it is necessarily ATRs aim to do this, but it happens regardless as when he tips something the price is cut.

    Regarding “pricewise” it’s fair to say he is a long term loser. He gets the odd good winner and people follow him blind. If you listen to the man on the RP podcast you can tell he’s not great. He moans about big field handicaps now, yet really they should be his bread and butter. I agree he isnt allowed to pick his races like Taylor, but one profits and one doesn’t IMO. I actually think Pricewise is well past his sell-by date. Not necessarily the concept, but the person.

    1. Just had a look at “bettingtools” who record tipsters bets for p+l and according to them Long term pricewise is a small winner. Hard to believe!

      1. Jack

        Is it claimed Pricewise is a long term winner ‘at advertised prices’ OR at prices actually available? That is the key difference. It’s a three card trick to say we make a profit at prices advertised where not many, if any, ever get that price.

        With regard to At The Races prices you will probably find that Hugh Taylor is a straight up guy simply doing his job rather than marking the bookmakers’ card. Each of the majors employ staff to monitor Hugh Taylor’s page (he even advises on Twitter when a selection is about to be released) using page refresh software to cut the price ASAP before any punters can get on. Similarly, the bookmakers subscribe to leading tipping services, Equine Investments being a significant example, to ensure top prices are immediately unavailable before the avalanche.


        1. Everyone should be able to get on at the advertised prices for Pricewise, if they so wish. While the bookies cut their prices quickly as soon as the tips are posted, they also go back to the earlier prices for a short time the following morning.

  10. T.B.f Chaps tipping big priced winners is an art and along with Josh they are masters of their craft, like Marmite they are loved or hated depending on personal opinion but they are free or some of their tips are so power to them for producing tips never mind winners but they are judged on profit and money speaks louder than the effort they put into finding them, one of the best free tipsters out the is the boy Priestley his results are consistent to say the least. I went through a horrific spell recently though I have just come back to form showing around 80 pts up for the season so far, last season I finished over 40 points up but my bets are generally between 7/2-12/1 so don’t be too hard on the free tipsters as both those mentioned are far better than most if not 90% of the fiddlers who call themselves pro tipsters, just my observation on tipsters in general not anything to do with the RTP site

  11. When i had a tipping line i proofed every horse racing tip through the racing post and i often wondered why bother,like today my golf tip Matt Fitzpatrick only SJ had him at 25/1 which i took,i could not claim this because i am honest so for the record he’s down at 22/1.
    One day Racing Post Pricewise claimed a 50/1 winner to be fair it won at 25/1 but only Sporting Bet had it at 50/1 in the morning i spoke to the lads in RP office and the agreed you would struggle to have had a fiver on at 50/1 but they had to advertise it at 50/1 for the boss said so.
    Racing Post should monitor tipsters however where does their advertisement income come from Bookmakers and Tipsters,the example above for me shows that they cannot regulate themselves.

  12. Hi.
    Just wonder if anyone can help me?
    I opened Betfair account thinking about bfsp and I haven’t got a clue how to actually take this price? I’m assuming it’s me being thick!
    Thanks for any help.

    1. Hi Marcin,
      the below link is an old video, bit out of date.. but from 8m 30 seconds looks at betfair exchange, betfair SP, and setting a minimum price BFSP (video was recorded to explain jumps strategy one..will be doing a new one, first 8 mins best ignored…)

      You should have an answer within a couple of mins.. and watching is better than explaining it in writing!

        1. ha, we have all been there! most things are straight forward enough- eventually/once done it first time! Making sure on the exchange and not sportsbook can be a common occurrence and just to confuse me every now and then once upon a time!

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