Free Daily Post: 09/10/17 (complete)

Not too much happening today, but some ‘test zone’ qualifiers from my Members’ Post. Both of these angles have been ticking along,let’s see if any can add to the pot…

 

Members’ Post, TEST ZONE…

Jockey CD

4.15 Wind- Rising (any odds)

4.40 Muss – Sakhees Return (any)

5.40 Muss – Swiftee (any)

6.10 Muss – Irvine Lady (any)

 

C Appleby Handicappers

4.15 Wind- Zamfir (any, 13/2< deadly!)

 

*

GL with any bets,

Josh

 

p.s – oh and a big well done to Colin who picked out another big priced Golf winner over the weekend- 20/1-33/1 widely available I believe. That may have taken him through the +50 points I think.. or thereabouts, with two nice winners now. We’ll eagerly await this week’s offering, no pressure 🙂 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

25 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Warning on the Golf thanks for the kind words on the members page,a couple have said that this week was their first golf bets it will not always like this there will be long losing runs so once again you need a bank.
    Nice start to October with 33.6 points in the bank so with Septembers 21 points we stand at 54.6 points up.

    colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


    • I do admire your endless warnings haha, something I am fond of given the odds we generally play at here across all sports! I think you can afford a few losers now and most will be playing with profits for fun stakes. You clearly know your stuff when it comes to Golf and are in form, long may it continue! Keep it up. I’ve had some fun for the odd £2.50/£5 bet.. my first non racing wagers in a very long time- well, I think since I bet on Dirk Kuyt to score the first goal at Anfield once, which he duly obliged to do.

      Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Hi Josh,bad enough if i lose my money always a worry when someone else losers theirs,and with the start we have had i do not want any one to think that there will be winners every month.
        Thanks for allowing me to put my golf bets on the web site i wanted to give something back for your superb club and if any one reading this and is not a member then join Josh today.
        cheers
        Colin

        colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


        • Very kind Colin. Yep, I appreciate that input, diversity is great and you’ve added to that in spades with the golf, along with mike chipping in with interesting analysis also. Always an interesting read. Members numbers have expanded quite a bit in recent days- just need to work hard and ensure everyone gets the best out of it/finds an approach that suits them, to inform a decision about whether they wish to stay longer term etc.

          Putting the neck on the line is a challenge mentally, took me a few months/first year, to be confident enough to be wrong so many times!! I think I have got through that now.. albeit the Bet of the day Versus Notes experiment in section 2 of members comes down to that mental challenge I think! All in the mind.
          Josh

          Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


          • Josh
            Not mental attitude again thought we covered that with golfers the other day,yes it does cause pressure when you are putting bets up for other people to wager on.
            One thing i respect you for you publish your results and your honesty.
            Proven results are a big issue,some years ago i requested results from Henry Rix and Steve Lewis Hamilton and were they forthcoming of course not,sadly the Racing Post who are supposed to monitor the tipsters are guilty themselves for do they publish Price Wise results!!! for 2 years i recorded Price Wise and they lost both years.
            Cheers

            colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


            • how about a level stakes 12 bets tournament on free to post
              each player has to select 12 bets within a calendar month.
              on any mixture of sports.
              most points at the end of the month wins the tournament

              1 point win only no e/w(At least 2 bookies have to be going price to accept)
              would keep the drama to the last day of the month
              the leader could have used up all 12 bets and be 20 points clear
              but a guy with a bet to spare could land a 33/1 winner and come from no where.

              if anyone is interested I will run it
              quite simple if you are in let me know start 1st November.
              have to make 12 selections by 30 November I will put up the table every day
              of the standings.

              if all selection are put up on this page everyone know who has selected what
              no copy selections
              if player A selects a horse/player/team at 5/1 player B can’t select the same bet 5 minutes later
              to protect their position first one to post gets the bet.

              so for example the table on the 24th November could read like this

              player a 11 bets profit 22.5
              player b 10 bets profit 11.00
              player g 12 bets profit 10.00
              player c 11 bets profit 8.66
              etc
              down to
              Player f 11 bets loss 11.00

              player c knows that even if player a picks a loser with their last bet
              they will be 21.50 in profit so will have to find a 13/1 plus winner to have a chance of winning.
              player f would have to find 33/1 winner to hit the front

              when the bet is put up at a certain price if it is not available 20 minutes after the bet is put up I will
              adjudge the price
              so if a bet is put up at 13/2 at 10am and at 10.20 the best price is 6/1 then that’s what you
              get.

              latest for a post is 12am but you can
              put up anti post bets if the event finishes before the 30th November
              if 10 plus people want to play I will run it with Josh’s permission

              peter 2 weeks ago Reply


              • I am in. What do I win? No trophies, they gather dust and the wife says they do not go with the decor.

                martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


                • no just the glory unless Josh sanctions it and wants to put up a prize

                  one thing I didn’t take into consideration that the Italian may try and win to get a seeded place
                  in the playoffs but on my calculations a draw would be good enough for a seeding
                  so 3/1 a draw looks the real value may even be 0-0 as a draw would be great for both teams
                  could be a little collusion between the two, again the first 15 minutes is worth watching if they are both just strolling around without much action, back 0-0

                  PETER 2 weeks ago Reply


              • Count me in Peter sounds a great idea, would put up some tennis bets

                Mark 2 weeks ago Reply


            • Wonderful Colin – thanks again!

              Neil 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Colin,
      surely how you arrive at your selections is more important
      to an up and coming golf better than any particular tip.

      if they follow your tips as soon as you are not tipping
      then we are lost if we know the method of arriving at winning golf bets
      then year down the line the method will see you through

      peter 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Steve Palmer in the post is a fantastic golf tipster but is a gambling
        fanatic so never really wins long term.

        love his writing in the sunday magazine funny but give an idea
        the difference between a professional gambler and a great tipster

        peter 2 weeks ago Reply


        • He does have some ups and downs and can lose a few ‘Bags’ (£1,000) every now and again. Too influenced by Harry Findlay!

          martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • The 2m2f handicap at Ponty is a very interesting little race.

    Madam Lillibet was beaten a long way on similar terms last time
    but she is ideally suit by this trip when the going is soft
    big price last time and she ran to those odds when a well beaten 5th
    but she has won this race twice before and I suspect she may be more forward today
    at 18/1 with sky bet she looks a decent e/w play because at her best she wins

    Football wise tonight the game that really catches my Eye is Albania v Italy.
    The Italians are notorious over the years of doing just enough, there have been many time they have settled for draws almost by mutual consent if it favours both teams, in international matches and in Searia A

    Italy can do no better or worse than 2nd place so there is no incentive on the result for them
    but although Albania are out they will be really fighting for a result against the Italians
    and they have won 4 games in their group so are not a no hope team
    They may be both happy with a draw but I can’t see with play offs coming the Italian risking injury to their key players so they will either play a below strength team or if their best players play then it will be foot of the gas time.
    Their class may see them through it their reserves are fighting for their places but unlike Brazil who still played to win in Bolivia
    they will have one eye on the play offs and at 1.62 to lay on betfair it looks value.

    if you don’t like laying I suggest a 2 point bet on the draw at 3/1
    and a point on the Albanians to win at 13/2.

    Holland v Sweden is a interesting game tomorrow
    and with the Dutch needing to score at least 7 goals to go ahead of the Swedes on goal difference.
    (6-0 will see them go out on goals scored) then I expect the Dutch to throw caution to the wind and
    go all out attack.
    this could leave them very vulnerable at the back and ship a lot of goals
    the Swedes may pack their defence and the game could end 0-0 etc.
    if the Swedes were to score first the Dutch could give up their task which is nigh on impossible at start of play but this game could explode into goals so a punt on over 4.5 goals
    at 5/1 is a fair play.

    of the three bets Italy are very poorly priced at 1.61 to win
    and look a team who wont be up for it. they only drew 1-1 at home to Macedonia last time( enough to seal 2nd place)
    Albania are if anything a slightly better team than Macedonia so why Italy are so short in a nothing game for them is a mystery to me

    peter 2 weeks ago Reply


    • I agree re Italy and Albania is not a friendly place to play away. I would go for the Lay. I do not like Wales without Bale and so like the draw v the Republic. Both games low scoring. I think Holland are shot as a team and wont be able to go for it. Sweden are a solid side and are organised. Back to this evening and I like Finland at home to Turkey. Finland are solid at home and Turkey seem all over the place. So take the 11/5 home win.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


      • get your point with the Dutch but hoping they will go for it
        even if they are not capable of scoring loads of goals the Swedes as you say are solid and could
        hit loads against a wide open defence.
        rather like Brazil v Germany
        5/1 is a bit of a punt and you will likely know your fate when you see how they play first twenty minutes.

        Turkey on a major low after crashing out so Finland are fair at 11/5

        Slovakia need either Wales Eire or Ukraine Croatia to draw
        to Qualify for the play offs a positive result in both games and they are out

        All 4 teams know that, so if with 10 minutes to go either game is drawing
        then it will really open up with all 4 desperate to find a winner

        my play would be to look for an in running bet if either match after 80-85mintes
        is level lay the draw with maybe 10-15 minutes still to play
        it will be end to end to snatch a winner and I think the odds of a goal
        will be a lot higher than the draw lay price at that stage.
        if you can hold your nerve to 85 minutes and lay at level scores the draw price will be very short
        but there could still be a big chance in the 10 minutes or so left one side will get a winner.

        it may also be a play after 8o minutes if one of the 4 teams are winning by 1 goal
        the losing team will have to score 2 to go through so they are will poor men forward
        and I think they will either score or leave so much space at the back another goal will be a high
        probability
        so if one team are winning by a single goal after 80 minutes I would look at the
        correct score market and lay the current score
        eg if the score at 80 minutes was 2-1 to wales
        then would lay that result as the Irish will be pouring men forward to score 2 goals
        and there will be a strong chance they will either score or leave
        oceans of space and the welsh score another

        peter 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Top stuff Colin….A nice winner from you…. i got 20s, although i must admit Michelson gave me squeaky bum time….lol
    Incidentally, what happens on equal finishes. Once again ….cheers mate.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Tony they have a play off till there is a winner.
      cheers

      colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


  • I dont see too much of interest today. In the 2.55 Pon I can see Heatongrad going well if it is fit after its break. I also like the improving Mabs Cross, 5.10 Mus.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Can Order of St George recover from his run in the Arc
    to be at his best at Ascot on October 21st and will
    Big Orange get his ground and will he still be race shape.

    Order of St George bombed in the Ascot race last year and I think a good plan is to lay now and hope the pros pick up on the negatives and he can be back at a bigger price on the day.

    Big Orange I think is very ground dependant and on genuine soft ground
    is a much inferior horse so softish ground could count against both.

    Order of St George because a jaded horse will always struggle when the ground is testing
    and Big Orange because he to has had a hard season and just doesn’t handle much cut

    may well pay to look outside these two

    peter 2 weeks ago Reply


  • well done colin.
    I managed to watch the final round on nbc golf channel.
    I cant play or have never really watched golf on tv but I must admit I did enjoy watching it last night. and will watch other events going foreward.
    what I did take away from watching last night Michelson very bullish about his chances last night and going foreward.

    warren bottomley 2 weeks ago Reply


  • 5/4 Perogative?
    16 Races 12 places no wins pre race
    now 17 races 13 places. is there a bigger professional loser in the sport?

    peter 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Hope a few of you got on Madam Lilibet at 18/1
    well happy.
    when shes good she is very good
    had a injury a year or so back so can get a bit jarry after a few runs on firmer ground
    needs soft ground and to be right but a real stayer in the right conditions
    also a good handicap hurdler at Carlisle over 3 miles
    when she is on a going day and the mud is flying.
    Her 2nd to Tuscan Gold over 2m5f in April was a great run but it knocked the stuffing out of her
    as it was run on much faster ground and she hasn’t been right until today

    PETER 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Well done Peter, top picking… thought I remembered reading about her somewhere haha- didn’t have a penny on sadly.. didn’t look at her and I should.. as the jockey change may have sparked more interest from me… he had placed on her here and can clearly get a tune out of her, went a strong pace also. Super stuff.
      Josh

      Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


      • take note if she turns up at Carlisle for 3 mile hurdle in a few weeks and it is muddy she will be hard to beat now she is right
        please tell the owners not to run her on fast ground again ha ha

        PETER 2 weeks ago Reply


Post A Reply