Looks like a quiet Tuesday ahead. Where has all the UK jumping gone??
No system quals etc.
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Of interest…
There area couple of front runners at Leicester that caught my eye, who could get out and stay out all the way…
4.30 – Ocean Tempest – WON 8/1 (made all!) 8/1 looks big and worth some minor support, win or EW. She has been in form for quite some time and looks sure to get her own way up front here, unless something else changes tactics from recent runs. But conditions looks ideal and she will keep going up this hill. She drops back into C5 from C4 LTO, where she got taken on for the lead, probably did too much, and faded out of it. But, 8s looked a bit too big. A repeat of that Yarmouth run should put her bang there.
5.30 – Reinforced – 4/1- a shorter price but another who looks likely to try and make all. He drops in class from recent runs and if able to dictate could stay there. He stays this trip well and again should appreciate this stiff finish. He will need a good start to get out and across from his wide draw but I think that is possible. A repeat of his last two runs should see him go close, in theory!
Do with that as you please.
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GL with any bets
Josh
33 Responses
Peter, just arrived home and in answer to your email i am unable to give my methods of how i select the golf bets,can only say that i go against the flow and any way by mid December you may be cursing me!!!
I intend to keep putting the golf bets on Josh’s free site for the long term whilst he allows me to do this.
Cheers
Colin
You keep posting them golfer’s.
The way I see it we could go nearly 6 months and still not actually be losing.
Never gonna win everytime but you clearly have a gift and I’m glad you you take the time to share it with us.
Colin whatever method you use certainly seems to work and you know a lot more about golf than I do
so I will be following your selections with interests
Italy snatched a 73 minute winner that scuppered the lay
and the 0-0 result.
Laid 0-1 in the Wales Ireland game after 85 minutes but no further goals there
Finland held by Turkey so not a great night on the football
but happy with the bets none the less
Tonight sees a lot of odds on chances
and a few may struggle to get over the line
in South America everything is still up for grabs
Uruguay need a point to be 100% sure of making the top 4
so they may settle for a point against Bolivia and 1/9 Uruguay
seems a very short price.
Admittedly Bolivia are terrible way from their altitude base at La paz.
but I don’t think in the circumstance Uruguay are a 1/9 poor chance.
Argentina are desperate for a win but their form doesn’t scream 4/9
for their visit to high altitude Quito and they are only priced that short because they have to win
but you would very brave taking 4/9 about a team who have only scored 16 goals in 17 games
in this group
Paraguay are on the verge of making the top 5 and a win against Venezuela
would likely see them make the top 5 but they could be edgey and 1/3 seems
a very poor price
Chile need a point in Brazil and are quite a useful side so 8/11 Brazil doesn’t seem
value
In Europe Portugal have to beat Swizerland to win the group
but 4/7 seems very short the Swiss have won all 9 games are a strong unit and will go to
Portugal in similar mode as Ireland went to Wales
expect a very tight game.
out of all that lot I am Laying Argentina,Paraguay,Uruguay and Portugal
at the prices only need 1 to fail to be about even
lay argentina 12 points at 1/2 liability 6 points
lay Uruguay 36 points at 1/9 liability 4 points
lay Paraguay 15 points at 1/3 liability 5 points
lay Portugal 10.5 points at 4/7 liability 6 points
if two fail to win you make a decent sum
Interesting and I’m sure your right some of those you’ve mentioned needing to win will choke under the pressure, after all if they were that good they wouldn’t be in his situation in the first place.
Just a note on laying, if people don’t use exchanges you could always use the Asian handicap market instead and back the opponent of the selections +0.5 – this basically covers the you for the draw and win side for the opponent and is effectively is the same as laying. If your bookie doesn’t do AH then double chance draw and win for the opponent is the same as well
Thanks James
You are right not everyone can lay on betfair
what you suggest is perfectly good.
IF you have the access to multiple bookies you can also
back the draw and the outsider at best price
last night I backed Albania at 13/2 and the draw at 3/1
had 6 points on the draw and 3 on Albania
So An Albanian win would have made a 13.5 point profit
and a draw a 15 point.
an Italian win lost 9 points so you are really laying the Italians
@ 9/13.5 or 9/15
as the Draw was more likely than an Albanian win
the p/l is reflected in the bet
Excellent points on the football. I do use the Asian Handicaps and would also suggest using Matchbook to trade rather than Betfair. You get better odds and lower commission generally. Yesterday Finland defended poorly and so only drew 2-2 v Turkey. Wales v Eire was low scoring but we could not hold on for a draw. Onto today, I think Holland will beat Sweden but not by seven as they need to. Sweden will sit in and take a low scoring loss and not push out if they go behind. Portugal revolve around Mr Ronaldo and if he is fit it is a different game, although they did win the Euros without him. They are not high scorers and so go low goals. I could also be persuaded to back the draw at the prices.
Brazil have already qualified and could be worth a lay at home to Chile? I agree that Argentina have it to do in Ecuador and do another potential lay at the prices.
Good luck.
Martin,
Your summing up of the Holland Sweden game looks spot on
but I just have a feeling in my water that with Holland needing 7
they will be kamikaze from the kick off
they can’t just play percentage football they have to throw
everyone forward from the off
Sweden could take advantage and score a few so over 4.5 is my play
but as we saw last night Wales even with 4 forwards couldn’t score
and Ireland sat so deep they didn’t look like scoring on the break
so the logic is with you just a hunch that this game is going to rain goals.
So 0-0 is the most likely outcome !!!
Have you noticed how many 1-0 results there are. if you take out
the real Star teams like Germany and the donuts of the groups like Gibraltar
and Andorra.
do you think this applies to the club leagues as well
if you take out the top 5 teams and the botttom3?
and could it be an angle?.
This site is great as it allows you to express ideas
and theories
Don’t really go for systems but love plans that are based on logical thinking
my weakness is running with new ideas before they are proven
and losing on a bad plan.
my latest plan is to read the racing posts results section
and noting down the comments of winning trainers and noting them for the future
trainers are usually pretty open after a winner and the info may be valuable later
For Instance the trainer of Madam Lilibet stated in the post that the horse
was better at Pontefract because she didn’t like going round twice and must have soft ground
that is info you would never see in her future form.
will see how I do over a few months before wacking on big bets
I still think Sweden wont push out even if 3 or 4 -0 down. No point they just need to keep the score below seven. We shall see which one of us is correct re goals scored? I still like a Holland win at 1-0 or 2-0. One other I spotted was for in the early hours of Wednesday. Costa Rica are 5/1+ away to Panama. I do not think that there is much between these teams and so the price looks value.
I do not know re your 1-0 angle? I dont think that there are that many even with closely matched teams over a season.
With regard to trainer comments, I would say it depends on the trainer. As humans some are optimistic and others are pessimistic. I am more excited by positive comments by pessimistic trainers. Warren Greatrex is an example of a clearly spoken trainer I think.
GOLF BETS
Italian Open Matt Fitzpatrick 1 point ew 1/4 5 25/1 SJ 22/1 365 SUN BW BB for account 22/1 recorded
this shorter and tighter course will suit Matt,he has said that he likes this years lay out,and he finished 3rd on his debut 2 years ago.
Francesco Molinari 1 point ew 1/4 5 16/1 BF SJ 365
He excels in the Italian Open having won it twice and he as had 5 top 10 finishes in the past 10 years.
CIMB CLASSIC
Gary Woodland 1 point ew 1/4 5 33/1 LA BF CO
Plays well at Kuala Lumper having had in the past and should go well again.
James Hahn 1 point ew 1/4 5 55/1 BF SJ PP
Worth a risk at the price,he has had two top ten finishes in the last 2 years, would rather have 55/1 than the 12/1 paul casey are the bookies having a laugh?
Lets hope that we can have another winner this week.
Cheers Colin, I like the look of those prices! I am not betting big enough to bother EW, so we’ll go all in on the nose 🙂 (foolish no doubt, but unless I am betting 10/20s + , I won’t bother, good fun for 5s)
Good luck,
Josh
Josh are you on the beer already not ew on 22/1, 16/1, 33/1, 55/1,my advice sober up and reflect,only joking haha
haha, I try to keep my drinking down during daylight hours at this time of year!! Maybe I haven’t had enough coffee.
I’m not going to faff about with £2.50 EW bets albeit a couple of places even at that amount is a nice beer fund- but still, when playing with 5s they usually go on the nose! It’s worked ok with your efforts so far! 🙂
never really thought e/w on golf was value
owing to the possibility of ties for the places
Colin you will know better than me if this is a percentage play.
is it the price that is the key or the number of places the bookies are offering
or although factor completely
Peter,strange one for me for i never back EW on the horses always say bad value yet on golf i do back EW,all golf tipsters tend to put EW on their selections.
Sadly a few months ago i destroyed all my golf results so i am unable to check them for win only,i was never going to tip again after stopping putting up my selections on Optimum Racing Sports but i have missed it and that is the reason they are on here,for which i am so pleased with the start for everyone.
Cheers
Colin
I Suppose e/w on golf make sense as there is only one winner
but with ties there can be 10 or more places.
e/w on horses offers no value except when there is a race like this.
8-10 runners
fav 1/4
2nd fav 9/2
12/1 bar 2.
That is the standard line but the bookies are inclined to go 1/4
7/2 rather than 9/2.
and if you stick on large e/w bets online they will soon start restricting your account
value in e/w doubles and trebles if you can find 2 or three races like this in aday
but the e/w betting I like is in a 8 -10 runner race( non handicap)
when they bet like the following
2/1
5/2
11/4
20/1+ bar three
If you look at the form of the first three you have a much better chance of finding the winner
than taking on a 1/4 shot
and if for instance you pick the 5/2 chance you are getting 1/2 a place
on betfair the place odds if it is a flat race or hurdle will be about 1/3 so you are
beating the place odds by a fair bit and if you shop around for the bookie with the
best odds and make sure they are offering bog
then you will be very close to the betfair price in the win market.
forget chases as the place odds are longer on betfair because of the fall possibility
on a 1/4
4/1 race you may be getting value on the place side 4/5 against a likely 2/7
you will likely find the win odds on betfair are about 7/1 so its swings and roundabouts
so with races with the 2/1 5/2 11/4 20/1 bar type if you can safely eliminate all the longshots
then you use your skill looking at the three main contenders
if you can put up negative about even one of them
ground distance etc.
forget who trains the horse.
favour a horse who has had a run over the discipline rather then debutant
favour c/d form over non cd form
favour horse who has shown it handles the current ground over one who hasn’t
favour top jockey over novice
favour front runner over held up
favour horse who has never fallen over one who has
etc
because you are getting better than the true value place wise
if you can break even on the win side you must finish in front!!!
(that’s the theory and if you can keep your discipline with a level e/w stake
it should see you in front of the bookie
have to be patient to wait for the right races
but if you don’t have to bet everyday it is a solid strategy.
I had a look at the runners earlier and liked your two selections. I am a big fan of Matt Fitzpatrick. One at a price I spotted was Lucas Bjerregard of Sweden at 66/1. He seems a big price for someone who has already had success on the tour.
In the US I like Rafa Cabrero Bello at 40/1. Another player I rate.
Good luck.
To all the users of this site if you were to follow 1 national hunt trainer
for a year who would it be and Why?
The answers will be interesting as it may highlight to everyone
a Trainers MO that isn’t common knowledge
Great question Peter and I immediately thought of 3 and hey presto when I check back to 2016-2017 season, all 3 were in top 4 of Trainers who had level stakes profit to 1 point SP.
My personal No 1 would be Fergal O’Brien and his stats last season were + 55.43, top guy and follow his twitter feed it is informative and genuinely funny!. My No 2 would be Graeme McPherson, really go ahead yard and his figures were + 69.08. Mt final one would be Emma Lavelle, had 2 seasons fighting a virus they eventually tracked to spores off oil seed rape, has a nice crop of fit and well handicapped horses and last year + 28.10.
The other one you’ll never go wrong with is Tom George + 49.84, the jury is still out for me about Heskin but when Paddy B rides BOB ON!
Harder to quantify smaller yards as one big winner can skew stats but figures and again my perception would say the likes of Mark Walford + 54.60; Tom Lacey + 87.32; Richard Hobson + 46.29; Sandy Thompson + 45.63 and Amy Murphy + 31.67
From my own tipping perspective the smaller yards who did me some real favours last winter were Rose Dobbin; David Dennis and I also have a huge soft spot for John Spearing, have a share in a few with him and a couple of his old Chasers are well worth following BUT under very strict criteria.
Hope this helps.
I had a think about this before reading your comment just now and Fergal, George, McPherson were at top of my mind… the latter can have the odd monster go in.
It is a very risky business ‘backing all’- well I wouldn’t do it as too many variables that can negatively impact performance, but always good info as a guide.
Good point about Lavelle- moved yards also which may have taken time to settle in, so with any luck has hers fit and firing- would normally have sent out more by now I think so maybe a slight tweak in operation.
Is it me, i’d have to check, but did Rebecca Curtis, have a shocker last year- for consistency etc. Not sure if she had issues, or what went on, but never remember too much consistent form.
Evan Williams is always one to watch I think and has a decent claimer attached to yard this year in Mitch B, should dive into his MO though.
Tim Vaughan..well he was quiet for an age but from recall had a much more consistent time of things last year/in 2017 generally. Always seems to be trying to improve at least.
Donald McCain.. really seems to have turned things around after ‘rooney gate’ and has had a brilliantly consistent few months- the test will come when the winter horses come out again- but something seems to have shifted there- whether quality of stock, or change in approach, or just a happier camp. Another I want to have a look into.
Charlie Longsdon – the final one I will mention – he can get forgotten when attention/media etc focuses on Fry, Skelton, Olly Murphy now… but he has a bigger/younger string than previously and has JJ Burke to call on as stable jockey- that will be a big difference i think- simply in knowing the horses etc etc. And he is very good when confident. I’m interested to see if he can find some consistency all year. It may be the case that next season is the time to follow some of his if having lots of bumper/novices this year.
Oh, i will mention Greatrex.. given his new relationship with Dickie Johnson … things seemed to go quiet a bit last year but I could be talking nonsense, haven’t looked at stats. But that jockey issue suggests all is not right and I think Sheehan may have lost plenty of confidence, which may have affected results. Interesting to see how that all works out this year…
coincidentally, watching Sheehan when booked for small/unusual yards, could be of interest- has banged in a few nice priced winners in recent weeks.
Josh
brilliant info Ian thanks that was just what I was looking for.
John Spearing has crossed my radar a few times and he seems to land some massive planned punts.
Harry Fry is my main man, with his connection to Paul he certainly knows how to train
I have noticed every season he has improved his total number of winners and more importantly
is getting better and better horses
always look out for his in bumpers at the gaffs
as they can be different class from a load of backward future chases
I look at the pedigree and if they have any speed in it I fancy them to
have to much toe for a lot of plodders in this type of race
My other favourite is Richard Newland who has a very small team
and only keeps quality if a horse doesn’t cut it they are out pretty sharpish
brilliant at placing his horses he isn’t a gambling trainer so when money come for his horses
there is usually a solid reason rather than bookies being scared of a big punting owner
lumping on.
Jonjo O’Neill is another trainer I watch, not for winning but I have often seen his stable
going through massive losing spells at times running up 50-60 straight losers
the spells usually come between the big races as he gets his horses right for the big day
but he seems to train them all together so while his top notch horses are not
trained hard between targets neither are the others and he can rack up
the losers for fun.(the ordinary runners who lose get a better handicap rating)
the only exception is when he sets up a punt for his main owner jp Mcmanus
the usual mo is a hurdler who needs three miles racking up a whole sequence
of losses in 2 mile novice hurdles and then another couple in 2m4f handicap hurdles
and then suddenly shoved into a lowly 3 mile handicap hurdle
if you see this type who on form should be 20/1 open up as the 4/1 fav
it should spark an interest
but wading in at that sort of price is crazy because it could be the bookies putting up a defensive
price
what happens on course is the key if it is a defensive price by the early price bookies
the on course layers will try and get it and it will drift
but if the horse is really off the bets will fly in. if you are prepared to back
a 20/1 form horse at 4/1 on course with big money then it highlights its chances
JJ and JP are no fools and if they are going for it you can bet they think the horse is miles ahead of its rating over the trip.
JP know how the stable works so JJ wont be worried if he has 80 straight losers
unless there is a virus etc
JJO really causes me headaches; lovely guy; great rider; and it is hard to argue he is not a great trainer, but, with the facilities at his disposal and the backing he has, I just regularly feel, he could maybe should be doing better.
Antoher I have had the privilege to chat to is Alan King, definitely one of my favourite NH trainers and another lovely guy with a fantastic track record.
I think Dr Newland does a great job with a small string down at Claines and his USP is he steadfastly refuses to “upscale”, my partners mom actually stayed in a care-home he owns and runs and I have to say, his attention to detail in that field (which is one of is main jobs) is as good as it is to his horses.
I have been very lucky in my life to have worked with and for and been at close quarters to some really top people; and in both spheres (top CEO’S in Business and World Champions on 2 wheels and some in the Horse Racing Game) I think there are some where you “keep your gob shut and your ears open” and can learn more in 10 minutes than in a lifetime without that opportunity. I spent about 5 hours at Kinnersley last year in the company of John (Spearing) and his partner Kate, and history literally oozes out of every brick of the place from the Fred/Mercy Rimell era, and to sit in the company of John (a very quiet and unassuming man of few words) was just fantastic.
It was only bettered a few months later when I went to see one of the horses at Wolverhampton, he met us in the Owners Bar and we sat and shared an hour chatting with him, Milton Bradley and Ron Harris; over 200 years of horse experience sat there; all decades past retirement; all still up at 5am, driving horses to meetings, just listening to them talk, not mentioning punting or tipping once, yet it enhanced my knowledge light years.
Racing is a unique sport where access (despite betting limitations for obvious reasons) to Trainers + Jockey’s is almost unprecedented and where almost all are just so friendly and willing to impart knowledge. There are very very few exceptions to that and that’s why it is such a great sport, whether you bet or not imho.
Ian,
I totally agreed I have run racing syndicates with horses at John Wainwrights
in Malton North Yorkshire
Oniz tiptoes, Blue noodles and Acquaint were three of ours.
When Tippy( Oniz Tiptoes) won a decent race at Kempton over Fences
the first guy who congratulated me in the winners enclosure was Richard Newland
and he didn’t even have a runner in the race.
To me he is a real gentleman who gives 100% to everything he does
and is a credit to the sport and I was delighted when he won the National.
He has so many strings to his bow that it is amazing he trains to such a high standard.
Milton Bradley to me is what racing is all about not mega rich owners who
have the financial muscle to buy up all the top horses.
Jumps is going the same way with the likes of Ricci and O ‘Leary and JP.
getting most of the grade 1 horses
I suppose it keeps good horses in the game but 300,000 plus for a gelding
puts most out of the picture.
When you have a 100 plus horses running in your colours like Gigginstown
where the sport?
same with football look at the top premiership teams
most owned by overseas billionaires with overseas players
and overseas managers were is the club identity
I would go with a trainer who can find me some good priced winners at certain times/courses over the season. I would go with Chris Dwyer on the flat and Harry Fry or Dr Newland over the jumps.
Good question regarding trainers. For me any trainer with a biggish sie string in form with 14/30 day stats and flagged up by one of Joshs micro systems would be spot on
l
I do not like much today. I will pass on a good word for Darksideofternside, 5.25 NC. I have had a few quid on at 100/1 today but look out for the horse anyway. I also hear good words for Rianna Star, 5.20 BR, from the Gary Moore stable. On at 11/1. Finally I am on First Bombardment, 7.30 NC, on at 12/1.
Good luck.
Martin good luck on your 100/1 shot will have to be something special with the big guns targeting the race cumani, bell, s bin suroor,charlton.
Have backed the other two
Cheers
well you don’t get much closer than that lol
very nice e/w return
very well done with that one.
Sheesh, beaten a neck; hope you had a place bet.
She tempted me, thanks Josh.
i’ll take that well done josh.
as a matter of interest did you mainly use gg to spot that one.
I took the £1 month but didn’t really use it so I’m a bit on the fence as to subscribe or not.
cheers gents, nice when it goes to plan!
Warren… yep, GG always my first port for call and I only used that for this one, pace maps were the way in, then a look to see if I could make a case for the horse etc, once set in my own mind she would lead. That price was too big. Wanted a reason for improving on last run..well she was still in form.. but that was a different track, C4, got into a pace battle.. drop in class, stayed 7f in her maiden, so assumed stamina for the final climb.
GG is more premium I suppose on the pricing, and just whether you have the time to use it etc, or it adds to your racing.. it is rare I divert from normal content as a starting point but had a bit of time left in my morning routine!
Josh
yes time is the killer. but I may try it on a tablet that may solve the time issue.
I can then look in my down time at work.
I do like the quick fix of 5f/6f sprints and it seems gg has some particularly good tools suited to sprint racing