Free Daily Post: 10/10/17 (complete)

Looks like a quiet Tuesday ahead. Where has all the UK jumping gone??

No system quals etc.

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Of interest…

There area  couple of front runners at Leicester that caught my eye, who could get out and stay out all the way…

4.30 – Ocean Tempest – WON 8/1 (made all!) 8/1 looks big and worth some minor support, win or EW. She has been in form for quite some time and looks sure to get her own way up front here, unless something else changes tactics from recent runs. But conditions looks ideal and she will keep going up this hill. She drops back into C5 from C4 LTO, where she got taken on for the lead, probably did too much, and faded out of it. But, 8s looked a bit too big. A repeat of that Yarmouth run should put her bang there.

5.30 – Reinforced – 4/1- a shorter price but another who looks likely to try and make all. He drops in class from recent runs and if able to dictate could stay there. He stays this trip well and again should appreciate this stiff finish. He will need a good start to get out and across from his wide draw but I think that is possible. A repeat of his last two runs should see him go close, in theory!

Do with that as you please.

*

GL with any bets

Josh

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

33 Comments

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  • Peter, just arrived home and in answer to your email i am unable to give my methods of how i select the golf bets,can only say that i go against the flow and any way by mid December you may be cursing me!!!
    I intend to keep putting the golf bets on Josh’s free site for the long term whilst he allows me to do this.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


    • You keep posting them golfer’s.
      The way I see it we could go nearly 6 months and still not actually be losing.
      Never gonna win everytime but you clearly have a gift and I’m glad you you take the time to share it with us.

      warren bottomley 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Colin whatever method you use certainly seems to work and you know a lot more about golf than I do
      so I will be following your selections with interests

      peter 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Italy snatched a 73 minute winner that scuppered the lay
    and the 0-0 result.
    Laid 0-1 in the Wales Ireland game after 85 minutes but no further goals there
    Finland held by Turkey so not a great night on the football
    but happy with the bets none the less

    Tonight sees a lot of odds on chances
    and a few may struggle to get over the line
    in South America everything is still up for grabs
    Uruguay need a point to be 100% sure of making the top 4
    so they may settle for a point against Bolivia and 1/9 Uruguay
    seems a very short price.
    Admittedly Bolivia are terrible way from their altitude base at La paz.
    but I don’t think in the circumstance Uruguay are a 1/9 poor chance.

    Argentina are desperate for a win but their form doesn’t scream 4/9
    for their visit to high altitude Quito and they are only priced that short because they have to win
    but you would very brave taking 4/9 about a team who have only scored 16 goals in 17 games
    in this group

    Paraguay are on the verge of making the top 5 and a win against Venezuela
    would likely see them make the top 5 but they could be edgey and 1/3 seems
    a very poor price
    Chile need a point in Brazil and are quite a useful side so 8/11 Brazil doesn’t seem
    value

    In Europe Portugal have to beat Swizerland to win the group
    but 4/7 seems very short the Swiss have won all 9 games are a strong unit and will go to
    Portugal in similar mode as Ireland went to Wales
    expect a very tight game.

    out of all that lot I am Laying Argentina,Paraguay,Uruguay and Portugal
    at the prices only need 1 to fail to be about even
    lay argentina 12 points at 1/2 liability 6 points
    lay Uruguay 36 points at 1/9 liability 4 points
    lay Paraguay 15 points at 1/3 liability 5 points
    lay Portugal 10.5 points at 4/7 liability 6 points

    if two fail to win you make a decent sum

    peter 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Interesting and I’m sure your right some of those you’ve mentioned needing to win will choke under the pressure, after all if they were that good they wouldn’t be in his situation in the first place.

      Just a note on laying, if people don’t use exchanges you could always use the Asian handicap market instead and back the opponent of the selections +0.5 – this basically covers the you for the draw and win side for the opponent and is effectively is the same as laying. If your bookie doesn’t do AH then double chance draw and win for the opponent is the same as well

      JamesP 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Thanks James
        You are right not everyone can lay on betfair
        what you suggest is perfectly good.
        IF you have the access to multiple bookies you can also
        back the draw and the outsider at best price

        last night I backed Albania at 13/2 and the draw at 3/1
        had 6 points on the draw and 3 on Albania

        So An Albanian win would have made a 13.5 point profit
        and a draw a 15 point.
        an Italian win lost 9 points so you are really laying the Italians
        @ 9/13.5 or 9/15
        as the Draw was more likely than an Albanian win
        the p/l is reflected in the bet

        peter 2 weeks ago Reply


        • Excellent points on the football. I do use the Asian Handicaps and would also suggest using Matchbook to trade rather than Betfair. You get better odds and lower commission generally. Yesterday Finland defended poorly and so only drew 2-2 v Turkey. Wales v Eire was low scoring but we could not hold on for a draw. Onto today, I think Holland will beat Sweden but not by seven as they need to. Sweden will sit in and take a low scoring loss and not push out if they go behind. Portugal revolve around Mr Ronaldo and if he is fit it is a different game, although they did win the Euros without him. They are not high scorers and so go low goals. I could also be persuaded to back the draw at the prices.
          Brazil have already qualified and could be worth a lay at home to Chile? I agree that Argentina have it to do in Ecuador and do another potential lay at the prices.

          Good luck.

          martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


          • Martin,
            Your summing up of the Holland Sweden game looks spot on
            but I just have a feeling in my water that with Holland needing 7
            they will be kamikaze from the kick off

            they can’t just play percentage football they have to throw
            everyone forward from the off
            Sweden could take advantage and score a few so over 4.5 is my play
            but as we saw last night Wales even with 4 forwards couldn’t score
            and Ireland sat so deep they didn’t look like scoring on the break
            so the logic is with you just a hunch that this game is going to rain goals.

            So 0-0 is the most likely outcome !!!

            Have you noticed how many 1-0 results there are. if you take out
            the real Star teams like Germany and the donuts of the groups like Gibraltar
            and Andorra.

            do you think this applies to the club leagues as well
            if you take out the top 5 teams and the botttom3?
            and could it be an angle?.

            This site is great as it allows you to express ideas
            and theories

            Don’t really go for systems but love plans that are based on logical thinking
            my weakness is running with new ideas before they are proven
            and losing on a bad plan.

            my latest plan is to read the racing posts results section
            and noting down the comments of winning trainers and noting them for the future
            trainers are usually pretty open after a winner and the info may be valuable later

            For Instance the trainer of Madam Lilibet stated in the post that the horse
            was better at Pontefract because she didn’t like going round twice and must have soft ground
            that is info you would never see in her future form.

            will see how I do over a few months before wacking on big bets

            peter 2 weeks ago Reply


            • I still think Sweden wont push out even if 3 or 4 -0 down. No point they just need to keep the score below seven. We shall see which one of us is correct re goals scored? I still like a Holland win at 1-0 or 2-0. One other I spotted was for in the early hours of Wednesday. Costa Rica are 5/1+ away to Panama. I do not think that there is much between these teams and so the price looks value.
              I do not know re your 1-0 angle? I dont think that there are that many even with closely matched teams over a season.

              With regard to trainer comments, I would say it depends on the trainer. As humans some are optimistic and others are pessimistic. I am more excited by positive comments by pessimistic trainers. Warren Greatrex is an example of a clearly spoken trainer I think.

              martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • GOLF BETS
    Italian Open Matt Fitzpatrick 1 point ew 1/4 5 25/1 SJ 22/1 365 SUN BW BB for account 22/1 recorded
    this shorter and tighter course will suit Matt,he has said that he likes this years lay out,and he finished 3rd on his debut 2 years ago.
    Francesco Molinari 1 point ew 1/4 5 16/1 BF SJ 365
    He excels in the Italian Open having won it twice and he as had 5 top 10 finishes in the past 10 years.
    CIMB CLASSIC
    Gary Woodland 1 point ew 1/4 5 33/1 LA BF CO
    Plays well at Kuala Lumper having had in the past and should go well again.
    James Hahn 1 point ew 1/4 5 55/1 BF SJ PP
    Worth a risk at the price,he has had two top ten finishes in the last 2 years, would rather have 55/1 than the 12/1 paul casey are the bookies having a laugh?
    Lets hope that we can have another winner this week.

    colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Cheers Colin, I like the look of those prices! I am not betting big enough to bother EW, so we’ll go all in on the nose 🙂 (foolish no doubt, but unless I am betting 10/20s + , I won’t bother, good fun for 5s)
      Good luck,
      Josh

      Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


      • Josh are you on the beer already not ew on 22/1, 16/1, 33/1, 55/1,my advice sober up and reflect,only joking haha

        colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


        • haha, I try to keep my drinking down during daylight hours at this time of year!! Maybe I haven’t had enough coffee.
          I’m not going to faff about with £2.50 EW bets albeit a couple of places even at that amount is a nice beer fund- but still, when playing with 5s they usually go on the nose! It’s worked ok with your efforts so far! 🙂

          Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


          • never really thought e/w on golf was value
            owing to the possibility of ties for the places
            Colin you will know better than me if this is a percentage play.

            is it the price that is the key or the number of places the bookies are offering
            or although factor completely

            peter 2 weeks ago Reply


            • Peter,strange one for me for i never back EW on the horses always say bad value yet on golf i do back EW,all golf tipsters tend to put EW on their selections.
              Sadly a few months ago i destroyed all my golf results so i am unable to check them for win only,i was never going to tip again after stopping putting up my selections on Optimum Racing Sports but i have missed it and that is the reason they are on here,for which i am so pleased with the start for everyone.
              Cheers
              Colin

              colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


              • I Suppose e/w on golf make sense as there is only one winner
                but with ties there can be 10 or more places.

                e/w on horses offers no value except when there is a race like this.

                8-10 runners
                fav 1/4
                2nd fav 9/2
                12/1 bar 2.

                That is the standard line but the bookies are inclined to go 1/4
                7/2 rather than 9/2.
                and if you stick on large e/w bets online they will soon start restricting your account

                value in e/w doubles and trebles if you can find 2 or three races like this in aday

                but the e/w betting I like is in a 8 -10 runner race( non handicap)
                when they bet like the following

                2/1
                5/2
                11/4
                20/1+ bar three
                If you look at the form of the first three you have a much better chance of finding the winner
                than taking on a 1/4 shot
                and if for instance you pick the 5/2 chance you are getting 1/2 a place
                on betfair the place odds if it is a flat race or hurdle will be about 1/3 so you are
                beating the place odds by a fair bit and if you shop around for the bookie with the
                best odds and make sure they are offering bog
                then you will be very close to the betfair price in the win market.
                forget chases as the place odds are longer on betfair because of the fall possibility

                on a 1/4
                4/1 race you may be getting value on the place side 4/5 against a likely 2/7
                you will likely find the win odds on betfair are about 7/1 so its swings and roundabouts

                so with races with the 2/1 5/2 11/4 20/1 bar type if you can safely eliminate all the longshots
                then you use your skill looking at the three main contenders
                if you can put up negative about even one of them
                ground distance etc.

                forget who trains the horse.

                favour a horse who has had a run over the discipline rather then debutant
                favour c/d form over non cd form
                favour horse who has shown it handles the current ground over one who hasn’t
                favour top jockey over novice
                favour front runner over held up
                favour horse who has never fallen over one who has
                etc

                because you are getting better than the true value place wise
                if you can break even on the win side you must finish in front!!!
                (that’s the theory and if you can keep your discipline with a level e/w stake
                it should see you in front of the bookie
                have to be patient to wait for the right races
                but if you don’t have to bet everyday it is a solid strategy.

                peter 2 weeks ago Reply


    • I had a look at the runners earlier and liked your two selections. I am a big fan of Matt Fitzpatrick. One at a price I spotted was Lucas Bjerregard of Sweden at 66/1. He seems a big price for someone who has already had success on the tour.

      In the US I like Rafa Cabrero Bello at 40/1. Another player I rate.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • To all the users of this site if you were to follow 1 national hunt trainer
    for a year who would it be and Why?

    The answers will be interesting as it may highlight to everyone
    a Trainers MO that isn’t common knowledge

    peter 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Great question Peter and I immediately thought of 3 and hey presto when I check back to 2016-2017 season, all 3 were in top 4 of Trainers who had level stakes profit to 1 point SP.

      My personal No 1 would be Fergal O’Brien and his stats last season were + 55.43, top guy and follow his twitter feed it is informative and genuinely funny!. My No 2 would be Graeme McPherson, really go ahead yard and his figures were + 69.08. Mt final one would be Emma Lavelle, had 2 seasons fighting a virus they eventually tracked to spores off oil seed rape, has a nice crop of fit and well handicapped horses and last year + 28.10.

      The other one you’ll never go wrong with is Tom George + 49.84, the jury is still out for me about Heskin but when Paddy B rides BOB ON!

      Harder to quantify smaller yards as one big winner can skew stats but figures and again my perception would say the likes of Mark Walford + 54.60; Tom Lacey + 87.32; Richard Hobson + 46.29; Sandy Thompson + 45.63 and Amy Murphy + 31.67

      From my own tipping perspective the smaller yards who did me some real favours last winter were Rose Dobbin; David Dennis and I also have a huge soft spot for John Spearing, have a share in a few with him and a couple of his old Chasers are well worth following BUT under very strict criteria.

      Hope this helps.

      Ian SP2A 2 weeks ago Reply


      • I had a think about this before reading your comment just now and Fergal, George, McPherson were at top of my mind… the latter can have the odd monster go in.

        It is a very risky business ‘backing all’- well I wouldn’t do it as too many variables that can negatively impact performance, but always good info as a guide.

        Good point about Lavelle- moved yards also which may have taken time to settle in, so with any luck has hers fit and firing- would normally have sent out more by now I think so maybe a slight tweak in operation.

        Is it me, i’d have to check, but did Rebecca Curtis, have a shocker last year- for consistency etc. Not sure if she had issues, or what went on, but never remember too much consistent form.

        Evan Williams is always one to watch I think and has a decent claimer attached to yard this year in Mitch B, should dive into his MO though.

        Tim Vaughan..well he was quiet for an age but from recall had a much more consistent time of things last year/in 2017 generally. Always seems to be trying to improve at least.

        Donald McCain.. really seems to have turned things around after ‘rooney gate’ and has had a brilliantly consistent few months- the test will come when the winter horses come out again- but something seems to have shifted there- whether quality of stock, or change in approach, or just a happier camp. Another I want to have a look into.

        Charlie Longsdon – the final one I will mention – he can get forgotten when attention/media etc focuses on Fry, Skelton, Olly Murphy now… but he has a bigger/younger string than previously and has JJ Burke to call on as stable jockey- that will be a big difference i think- simply in knowing the horses etc etc. And he is very good when confident. I’m interested to see if he can find some consistency all year. It may be the case that next season is the time to follow some of his if having lots of bumper/novices this year.

        Oh, i will mention Greatrex.. given his new relationship with Dickie Johnson … things seemed to go quiet a bit last year but I could be talking nonsense, haven’t looked at stats. But that jockey issue suggests all is not right and I think Sheehan may have lost plenty of confidence, which may have affected results. Interesting to see how that all works out this year…

        coincidentally, watching Sheehan when booked for small/unusual yards, could be of interest- has banged in a few nice priced winners in recent weeks.

        Josh

        Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


      • brilliant info Ian thanks that was just what I was looking for.
        John Spearing has crossed my radar a few times and he seems to land some massive planned punts.

        Harry Fry is my main man, with his connection to Paul he certainly knows how to train
        I have noticed every season he has improved his total number of winners and more importantly
        is getting better and better horses
        always look out for his in bumpers at the gaffs
        as they can be different class from a load of backward future chases
        I look at the pedigree and if they have any speed in it I fancy them to
        have to much toe for a lot of plodders in this type of race

        My other favourite is Richard Newland who has a very small team
        and only keeps quality if a horse doesn’t cut it they are out pretty sharpish
        brilliant at placing his horses he isn’t a gambling trainer so when money come for his horses
        there is usually a solid reason rather than bookies being scared of a big punting owner
        lumping on.

        Jonjo O’Neill is another trainer I watch, not for winning but I have often seen his stable
        going through massive losing spells at times running up 50-60 straight losers
        the spells usually come between the big races as he gets his horses right for the big day
        but he seems to train them all together so while his top notch horses are not
        trained hard between targets neither are the others and he can rack up
        the losers for fun.(the ordinary runners who lose get a better handicap rating)
        the only exception is when he sets up a punt for his main owner jp Mcmanus
        the usual mo is a hurdler who needs three miles racking up a whole sequence
        of losses in 2 mile novice hurdles and then another couple in 2m4f handicap hurdles
        and then suddenly shoved into a lowly 3 mile handicap hurdle

        if you see this type who on form should be 20/1 open up as the 4/1 fav
        it should spark an interest
        but wading in at that sort of price is crazy because it could be the bookies putting up a defensive
        price
        what happens on course is the key if it is a defensive price by the early price bookies
        the on course layers will try and get it and it will drift
        but if the horse is really off the bets will fly in. if you are prepared to back
        a 20/1 form horse at 4/1 on course with big money then it highlights its chances
        JJ and JP are no fools and if they are going for it you can bet they think the horse is miles ahead of its rating over the trip.

        JP know how the stable works so JJ wont be worried if he has 80 straight losers
        unless there is a virus etc

        peter 2 weeks ago Reply


        • JJO really causes me headaches; lovely guy; great rider; and it is hard to argue he is not a great trainer, but, with the facilities at his disposal and the backing he has, I just regularly feel, he could maybe should be doing better.

          Antoher I have had the privilege to chat to is Alan King, definitely one of my favourite NH trainers and another lovely guy with a fantastic track record.

          I think Dr Newland does a great job with a small string down at Claines and his USP is he steadfastly refuses to “upscale”, my partners mom actually stayed in a care-home he owns and runs and I have to say, his attention to detail in that field (which is one of is main jobs) is as good as it is to his horses.

          I have been very lucky in my life to have worked with and for and been at close quarters to some really top people; and in both spheres (top CEO’S in Business and World Champions on 2 wheels and some in the Horse Racing Game) I think there are some where you “keep your gob shut and your ears open” and can learn more in 10 minutes than in a lifetime without that opportunity. I spent about 5 hours at Kinnersley last year in the company of John (Spearing) and his partner Kate, and history literally oozes out of every brick of the place from the Fred/Mercy Rimell era, and to sit in the company of John (a very quiet and unassuming man of few words) was just fantastic.

          It was only bettered a few months later when I went to see one of the horses at Wolverhampton, he met us in the Owners Bar and we sat and shared an hour chatting with him, Milton Bradley and Ron Harris; over 200 years of horse experience sat there; all decades past retirement; all still up at 5am, driving horses to meetings, just listening to them talk, not mentioning punting or tipping once, yet it enhanced my knowledge light years.

          Racing is a unique sport where access (despite betting limitations for obvious reasons) to Trainers + Jockey’s is almost unprecedented and where almost all are just so friendly and willing to impart knowledge. There are very very few exceptions to that and that’s why it is such a great sport, whether you bet or not imho.

          Ian SP2A 2 weeks ago Reply


          • Ian,
            I totally agreed I have run racing syndicates with horses at John Wainwrights
            in Malton North Yorkshire
            Oniz tiptoes, Blue noodles and Acquaint were three of ours.

            When Tippy( Oniz Tiptoes) won a decent race at Kempton over Fences
            the first guy who congratulated me in the winners enclosure was Richard Newland
            and he didn’t even have a runner in the race.

            To me he is a real gentleman who gives 100% to everything he does
            and is a credit to the sport and I was delighted when he won the National.

            He has so many strings to his bow that it is amazing he trains to such a high standard.

            Milton Bradley to me is what racing is all about not mega rich owners who
            have the financial muscle to buy up all the top horses.

            Jumps is going the same way with the likes of Ricci and O ‘Leary and JP.
            getting most of the grade 1 horses
            I suppose it keeps good horses in the game but 300,000 plus for a gelding
            puts most out of the picture.

            When you have a 100 plus horses running in your colours like Gigginstown
            where the sport?

            same with football look at the top premiership teams
            most owned by overseas billionaires with overseas players
            and overseas managers were is the club identity

            peter 2 weeks ago Reply


    • I would go with a trainer who can find me some good priced winners at certain times/courses over the season. I would go with Chris Dwyer on the flat and Harry Fry or Dr Newland over the jumps.

      martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Good question regarding trainers. For me any trainer with a biggish sie string in form with 14/30 day stats and flagged up by one of Joshs micro systems would be spot on
    l

    paul bailey 2 weeks ago Reply


  • I do not like much today. I will pass on a good word for Darksideofternside, 5.25 NC. I have had a few quid on at 100/1 today but look out for the horse anyway. I also hear good words for Rianna Star, 5.20 BR, from the Gary Moore stable. On at 11/1. Finally I am on First Bombardment, 7.30 NC, on at 12/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Martin good luck on your 100/1 shot will have to be something special with the big guns targeting the race cumani, bell, s bin suroor,charlton.
      Have backed the other two
      Cheers

      colin leafe 2 weeks ago Reply


    • well you don’t get much closer than that lol
      very nice e/w return
      very well done with that one.

      warren bottomley 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Sheesh, beaten a neck; hope you had a place bet.

      chrisrees 2 weeks ago Reply


  • She tempted me, thanks Josh.

    chrisrees 2 weeks ago Reply


  • i’ll take that well done josh.
    as a matter of interest did you mainly use gg to spot that one.
    I took the £1 month but didn’t really use it so I’m a bit on the fence as to subscribe or not.

    warren bottomley 2 weeks ago Reply


    • cheers gents, nice when it goes to plan!

      Warren… yep, GG always my first port for call and I only used that for this one, pace maps were the way in, then a look to see if I could make a case for the horse etc, once set in my own mind she would lead. That price was too big. Wanted a reason for improving on last run..well she was still in form.. but that was a different track, C4, got into a pace battle.. drop in class, stayed 7f in her maiden, so assumed stamina for the final climb.

      GG is more premium I suppose on the pricing, and just whether you have the time to use it etc, or it adds to your racing.. it is rare I divert from normal content as a starting point but had a bit of time left in my morning routine!

      Josh

      Josh 2 weeks ago Reply


      • yes time is the killer. but I may try it on a tablet that may solve the time issue.
        I can then look in my down time at work.
        I do like the quick fix of 5f/6f sprints and it seems gg has some particularly good tools suited to sprint racing

        warren bottomley 2 weeks ago Reply


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