Members Daily Post: 09/10/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Pontefract 

3.25 – La Fritillaire (all hncps) H1 I1 G3 7/2 3rd 9/2 

3.55 –

Dutch Artist (all hncps) 28/1 3rd 28/1>16/1

Detachment (3yo+) 14 7/1 UP 

Make On Madam (3yo+) I3 

Salisbury

2.05 – N Over Jay (2YO) 11/1 WON 12/1 

5.05 – Lustrous Light (micro distance) H3 7/2

Windsor

4.15 – Desert Gold (all hncps) 14 I3 G3 16/1 UP

4.45 – Reaver (3yo+) H3 I1 G3 5/1 3rd 7/2 

5.45 – Lucky Di (3yo+) 16/1 UP

Musselburgh

4.10 – Royal icon (all hncps, 3yo+, micro age) 30 H3 I3 11/4 UP

4.40 – Al Khan (all hncps + 3yo+) 30 G1 12/1 UP 25/1 

5.40 – Pipe Dreamer (all hncps + 3yo+, + micro age) 30 10/1 UP

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/147, +18.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (18/82, +84.5)

No ‘bet of the day’..nothing with the unexposed + ‘doing something different’ profile, 6/1+, that I like to focus on..albeit my ability to pick out which ‘notes’ horses to elevate to a ‘bet of the day’ clearly needs work! 🙂 But, there are some of interest so let’s jump straight to the notes….

NOTES

Dutch Artist... well at 25/1, 28/1 I am going to have to throw one of my £5 notes at him… that price is just too tempting. He is 1/17 in his career, 0/14,3p in handicaps and I am not really sure you can improve a horse from the O’Meara yard but this is the third run for the trainer. Of interest is that he drops him back down in trip here by 2f and down in class. He also books a top jock in Phil Makin. It’s his 2nd run in blinkers and that can work well, if he is now used to wearing them. You can still get the concentrating effect without the initial anxiety/wasted energy, when they first go on. In June he came a close second at Wetherby, in a C4, 8f, Soft, off 75. He races off 66 here. The hope is that he may repeat that run. He races prominently and is low drawn. At that price I simply had to have a dart. He could fall out the back of the tv. You wouldn’t be shocked if he went very close here. There are 4 places to play with, and at those odds an EW dabble is probably sensible. Depends on the stake though. If you’re not having more than £5 on, you may as well throw it all on the nose!

Detachment… In the same race I can’t really leave him at 8s either. Now, were there a class or distance move I may be more interested… but, he is 0/2 in turf handicaps over here and is lightly raced. The yard is in decent form and this is his second run after a three month break. I wonder if they decided to put him away for autumn ground/then an AW campaign. He ran well after that break in the Legends race at Donny which was at least run at a good clip. There is a chance this race sets up for a closer here also. I noticed at the last meeting here on soft that there were closers winning, esp when they went too hard up top. It isn’t impossible he can tuck in and pick up the pieces. Dane O’Neill doesn’t have a great record around here but he is a fine jockey and I won’t let that put me off. All in all, he comes here fresher than most and doesn’t have many miles on the clock. He could just be moderate but I would hope he could run his race today. 8/1 allows a play.

Neither of those two hit any advised strategies so would be a ‘bonus’ to the profits…

Al Khan… the final ‘notes’ horse that is worth a stab I think… he does qualify on Strategy #6 for the flat, which has pulled in +80 points so far this season. Not bad 🙂 What caught my eye.. well the trainer is in form which always helps. Clearly this one isn’t unexposed so we are banking on a repeat performance from years gone by being enough. I did note that he is the ONLY horse in the race that is below his last winning mark, and the race isn’t exactly full of unexposed hot pots. He also gets a tongue tie for the first time. Interesting. Odd. But, doing something different! (i know you get tired of that phrase but I will keep banging that drum) He is 2/7,4p in c3 handicaps so does have the ability. BUT…what really caught the eye was that young Joe Doyle gets the leg up.. these two seem to have a connection… 1/3,3 places… now, that could be nothing, but Joe hasn’t ridden him since November 2016 when he ran a decent race. The horse is well handicapped again and now he gets the ride. Interesting. Finally, there is a lot of pace on paper in this, and it could collapse/set up for a closer. It will need to. I suspect he is a bit below this level now, but not over thinking things with these decent priced horses has worked well in the Notes in recent weeks. You can see above that there are a few reasons to be hopeful (rather than bullish) at 12/1.

It would be a fun start to the week if one of those does the business.

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OTHERS.. (NOT counted in my Notes profit trial column)

I will just mention the two Flat treble rated (Flat strategy #4) as you would have to give them a chance.. La Fritillaire may just be on the boundary at 7/2.. she is just above her last winning mark but an ability to stay this trip is probably more important than a few pounds. Whether she will quite get home in soft over it remains to be seen, a tad further than when winning for us at a nice price LTO. No 10/1 today for the notes. But, she is just solid and will give any backers a run for their money.

Reaver.. I probably fancy him more at a slightly bigger price- the yard can do no wrong this season. A watershed year really and you’d hope she may get sent more/better horses next year. Clearly a superb trainer. Very good with the media also, always something interesting to say. In any case.. this one’s last win came in a C4, 8f in April. This is his first run in those conditions since- having been upped to C3/2s, and upped in trip. Also gets first time CP, drops in trip, drops in class. Again he also has some pace to aim at on paper which will help his closing style, albeit they know he stays this trip so may ride him closer to the pace. The CP may light him up a bit also. So, I thought 5s, 9/2 looked solid given all of that really. Looks to have a solid chance.

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That’s the lot for this bit today.

3.Micro System Test Zone

Remember the links to all these reports/research can be found in the Key above…

Jockey CD 

4.15 Wind- Rising (any odds)

4.40 Muss – Sakhees Return (any)

5.40 Muss – Swiftee (any)

6.10 Muss  – Irvine Lady (any)

C Appleby Handicappers

4.15 Wind- Zamfir (any, 13/2< deadly!)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

IMPORTANT: If you haven’t done so please do read the welcome note/email in the Key above and take time to familiarise yourself with the advised strategies. The welcome videos may be worth your time also. If you EVER have any question, however daft/basic it may seem, please email me or post a comment below. Josh

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The Week Ahead…

• I will be finishing off the Jumps stats pack, nearly done.. handful of tracks left… I am also going to play with an ‘Elite Squad  Plus + ‘  idea, an even more focused group of micros, at least 10 wins, 25% + SR, something like that- conscious that a more focused/higher win SR approach may compliment everything else well.. although Treble Rated over jumps may do that job. Always thinking.
• I’ll update the results for the advised strategies today.
• Will also just pull together a short list of any ‘notebook’ horses.. either those that have appeared on these members posts in the last week, or other horses from the races qualifiers may have ran in, that caught the eye. There are a handful of interest I think. You can do as you please with them, add to trackers etc- I won’t be highlighting them as a matter of course on here, not as yet anyway. But, it is likely many may appear as qualifiers at some point in the season anyway.
• VIDEO.. I will record a video looking at the strategies, discussing betting banks,win %, losing runs and the most important ingredients of the successful punter, as pointed out by Steve.. discipline and patience.

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GL with any bets,

Josh