Members Daily Post: 09/10/17 (complete)

Section 1 + test zone + NOTES (+ test zone late addition!)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Pontefract 

3.25 – La Fritillaire (all hncps) H1 I1 G3 7/2 3rd 9/2 

3.55 –

Dutch Artist (all hncps) 28/1 3rd 28/1>16/1

Detachment (3yo+) 14 7/1 UP 

Make On Madam (3yo+) I3 

 

Salisbury

2.05 – N Over Jay (2YO) 11/1 WON 12/1 

5.05 – Lustrous Light (micro distance) H3 7/2

 

Windsor

4.15 – Desert Gold (all hncps) 14 I3 G3 16/1 UP

4.45 – Reaver (3yo+) H3 I1 G3 5/1 3rd 7/2 

5.45 – Lucky Di (3yo+) 16/1 UP

 

Musselburgh

4.10 – Royal icon (all hncps, 3yo+, micro age) 30 H3 I3 11/4 UP

4.40 – Al Khan (all hncps + 3yo+) 30 G1 12/1 UP 25/1 

5.40 – Pipe Dreamer (all hncps + 3yo+, + micro age) 30 10/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated 1st Oct)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated 1st Oct)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (long!) Brief’ Welcome Intro: Watch HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): (new report to follow soon)

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Test/trial : Bet of The Day…  (Flat: 7/74,27p, -5.1) (Jumps: 9/66, +23.5) (total: 17/147, +18.6)  ‘NOTES’  (01/09/17-) (18/82, +84.5)

No ‘bet of the day’..nothing with the unexposed + ‘doing something different’ profile, 6/1+, that I like to focus on..albeit my ability to pick out which ‘notes’ horses to elevate to a ‘bet of the day’ clearly needs work! 🙂 But, there are some of interest so let’s jump straight to the notes….

NOTES

Dutch Artist... well at 25/1, 28/1 I am going to have to throw one of my £5 notes at him… that price is just too tempting. He is 1/17 in his career, 0/14,3p in handicaps and I am not really sure you can improve a horse from the O’Meara yard but this is the third run for the trainer. Of interest is that he drops him back down in trip here by 2f and down in class. He also books a top jock in Phil Makin. It’s his 2nd run in blinkers and that can work well, if he is now used to wearing them. You can still get the concentrating effect without the initial anxiety/wasted energy, when they first go on. In June he came a close second at Wetherby, in a C4, 8f, Soft, off 75. He races off 66 here. The hope is that he may repeat that run. He races prominently and is low drawn. At that price I simply had to have a dart. He could fall out the back of the tv. You wouldn’t be shocked if he went very close here. There are 4 places to play with, and at those odds an EW dabble is probably sensible. Depends on the stake though. If you’re not having more than £5 on, you may as well throw it all on the nose!

Detachment… In the same race I can’t really leave him at 8s either. Now, were there a class or distance move I may be more interested… but, he is 0/2 in turf handicaps over here and is lightly raced. The yard is in decent form and this is his second run after a three month break. I wonder if they decided to put him away for autumn ground/then an AW campaign. He ran well after that break in the Legends race at Donny which was at least run at a good clip. There is a chance this race sets up for a closer here also. I noticed at the last meeting here on soft that there were closers winning, esp when they went too hard up top. It isn’t impossible he can tuck in and pick up the pieces. Dane O’Neill doesn’t have a great record around here but he is a fine jockey and I won’t let that put me off. All in all, he comes here fresher than most and doesn’t have many miles on the clock. He could just be moderate but I would hope he could run his race today. 8/1 allows a play.

Neither of those two hit any advised strategies so would be a ‘bonus’ to the profits…

Al Khan… the final ‘notes’ horse that is worth a stab I think… he does qualify on Strategy #6 for the flat, which has pulled in +80 points so far this season. Not bad 🙂 What caught my eye.. well the trainer is in form which always helps. Clearly this one isn’t unexposed so we are banking on a repeat performance from years gone by being enough. I did note that he is the ONLY horse in the race that is below his last winning mark, and the race isn’t exactly full of unexposed hot pots. He also gets a tongue tie for the first time. Interesting. Odd. But, doing something different! (i know you get tired of that phrase but I will keep banging that drum) He is 2/7,4p in c3 handicaps so does have the ability. BUT…what really caught the eye was that young Joe Doyle gets the leg up.. these two seem to have a connection… 1/3,3 places… now, that could be nothing, but Joe hasn’t ridden him since November 2016 when he ran a decent race. The horse is well handicapped again and now he gets the ride. Interesting. Finally, there is a lot of pace on paper in this, and it could collapse/set up for a closer. It will need to. I suspect he is a bit below this level now, but not over thinking things with these decent priced horses has worked well in the Notes in recent weeks. You can see above that there are a few reasons to be hopeful (rather than bullish) at 12/1.

It would be a fun start to the week if one of those does the business.

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OTHERS.. (NOT counted in my Notes profit trial column)

I will just mention the two Flat treble rated (Flat strategy #4) as you would have to give them a chance.. La Fritillaire may just be on the boundary at 7/2.. she is just above her last winning mark but an ability to stay this trip is probably more important than a few pounds. Whether she will quite get home in soft over it remains to be seen, a tad further than when winning for us at a nice price LTO. No 10/1 today for the notes. But, she is just solid and will give any backers a run for their money.

Reaver.. I probably fancy him more at a slightly bigger price- the yard can do no wrong this season. A watershed year really and you’d hope she may get sent more/better horses next year. Clearly a superb trainer. Very good with the media also, always something interesting to say. In any case.. this one’s last win came in a C4, 8f in April. This is his first run in those conditions since- having been upped to C3/2s, and upped in trip. Also gets first time CP, drops in trip, drops in class. Again he also has some pace to aim at on paper which will help his closing style, albeit they know he stays this trip so may ride him closer to the pace. The CP may light him up a bit also. So, I thought 5s, 9/2 looked solid given all of that really. Looks to have a solid chance.

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That’s the lot for this bit today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Remember the links to all these reports/research can be found in the Key above…

Jockey CD 

4.15 Wind- Rising (any odds)

4.40 Muss – Sakhees Return (any)

5.40 Muss – Swiftee (any)

6.10 Muss  – Irvine Lady (any)

 

C Appleby Handicappers

4.15 Wind- Zamfir (any, 13/2< deadly!)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

IMPORTANT: If you haven’t done so please do read the welcome note/email in the Key above and take time to familiarise yourself with the advised strategies. The welcome videos may be worth your time also. If you EVER have any question, however daft/basic it may seem, please email me or post a comment below. Josh

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The Week Ahead…

  • I will be finishing off the Jumps stats pack, nearly done.. handful of tracks left… I am also going to play with an ‘Elite Squad  Plus + ‘  idea, an even more focused group of micros, at least 10 wins, 25% + SR, something like that- conscious that a more focused/higher win SR approach may compliment everything else well.. although Treble Rated over jumps may do that job. Always thinking.
  • I’ll update the results for the advised strategies today.
  • Will also just pull together a short list of any ‘notebook’ horses.. either those that have appeared on these members posts in the last week, or other horses from the races qualifiers may have ran in, that caught the eye. There are a handful of interest I think. You can do as you please with them, add to trackers etc- I won’t be highlighting them as a matter of course on here, not as yet anyway. But, it is likely many may appear as qualifiers at some point in the season anyway.
  • VIDEO.. I will record a video looking at the strategies, discussing betting banks,win %, losing runs and the most important ingredients of the successful punter, as pointed out by Steve.. discipline and patience.

 

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GL with any bets,

Josh

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RESULTS.. top level, i’ll update the advised strategies links above.. but IF you had bet every qualifier, every time they hit a strategy (so would include multiple bets)

2nd -8th Oct

Flat: 6/22,9p, +17.5 points

Jumps: 8/25,14p, +41.5 points

 

(includes a Flat winner 7/2 counted x3, 11/2 winner x2, plus a few multiple losers. Jumps… 10/1 winner counted twice, plus  few multiple losers. So, +59 points total if backing everything… not bad… IF you just backed the winners x1, -22.5 points, so still… +36.5 points.. but would be a tad higher than that as would have only backed X losers once.. 4/5 of those I think.. so, around +40 points approx if backing every strategy qualifier just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit…. that includes ALL 6 from the Flat,  and +11 point of ‘Treble Rated’ from the jumps. However you slice and dice, it was a decent week… it won’t be like that every week, we have been on a good run.. even just an average of +5 points EVERY week, all year, isn’t a bad annual return 🙂 ) 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. So these have been put on My tracker. I’ve consciously put them on it but not sure why.
    Reaver 4.45 windsor
    Balgair 7.55 kempton
    Captain peacock 7.25 kempton
    (I think he’s a we’ve been here before horse).
    Something brewing 3.55 Pontefract.

    Hopefully something of interest.

    1. Yep, thanks Colin. A nice 25/1 winner on my first bets in the Golf market . I thought Kevin Na was going to give us the chance of some place money too half way round, but fell away after a couple of bad holes.

      Chris R.

    2. Yep – good stuff Colin. A great pick. You were long overdue converting one of your 3rd round “runners” into a winner.

      Cheers

      Ben

    1. Nice pick Colin. I did pick up on it in yesterdays Free Post and suggested getting on at 6/1 if you were not already on. I do not play until the end of the third round. Keep up the good work.

  2. Thanks Colin for the Brendan Steele tip. Got on at 33/1. I also did the Brendan/Brandon double but that blew out. I couldn’t resist the coincidence. But also I think Brandon Grace is likely to pop up at any moment. Thanks again. Pat

    1. ??? Well that is Martin’s approach, which sounds logical/his experience.. but for my £2.50s and £5s, I’d rather 25/1 than the 6/1 Tony! Pays your money, takes your chance. Always the option to lay off as rounds/tips progress I suppose, if you’re betting with big boys/girls stakes 🙂 (which I suspect Martin may well be, hence the liking for a more heavy confident wager at that time)

      1. I did use to spread £100 each on European and US Golf each week on 3 or 4 runners and you do hit the occasional winner. I also used to have the same stake on at the end of the third round after seeing who was where and who was a good finisher and who was not. I moved to after the third round only as I was more successful in that approach in profit terms. I agree that if you are having a fiver or tenner on you need to get on before the tournament starts. As a serious punter who does it full time small stakes are not relevant to me. I do look out for Colin’s tips and it is good of him to share. I do share after I am on unless I have been asked by a source not to share. This does happen.
        I do enjoy the Golf and so take betting on it seriously and would recommend getting along to a Tournament in the UK if you can. You do get to meet some of the players if you hang around the practice areas or the clubhouse. They are not usually good at helping you to play better I find as they operate at a different level to us hackers.

    2. Hi Tony
      Any one can do what they want with my tips however like Josh i prefer a big price winner!!!when they come along,and remember i will always record my results win or lose and i will not change my successful format,
      which suits me.
      Cheers
      Colin

  3. Hi josh just been reading. All what your up to this week all good with me thanks enjoyed my first week back on here so much lots going on and the icing on the cake was to get a nice flow of winners making nearly forty pts profit many thanks.

    1. Hi Steve…
      what are you using to make your comments on?? For some reason unknown to me they are not formatting like everything else… very odd, a puzzle. Will have to have a word with my techie friend… text is odd also, a full stop after every word.. which suggests maybe something to do with whatever device you are using. Strange!

      Will try and copy and paste as you cannot see the completed comment,
      Josh

      ps. just edited your comment.. was something to do with how you have formatted text/written it… no idea what mind, very odd.

      p.p.s – cheers.. yet a decent week, not every week will be like that.. always plenty going on but key is to take the time to dive into/focus on the bits you want- i prefer that freedom of choice, but can take time until you settle on an approach/routine that you are comfortable with etc

      1. hi josh my fault will not happen again , it’s all to do with using my tablet , not good at that sorry , i will now just use my desktop for comments from now on

        1. no problem, it will be something I can probably change my end also…
          not a samsung tablet is it by any chance?? Got a samsung phone that can write/text like that, something to do with the predictive text settings I think- suspect that may be what it is. Or my site isn’t tablet friendly for comments!
          Josh

  4. NIGEL TWISTON DAVIES Test Zone update… I’ll throw this in tomorrow’s post also..

    Multiple quals (so, however many ‘M’s horse has next to name.. ‘m’ for ‘micro’ as per report in key)…

    38 bets / 12 wins / +33 points (1 point win bets x M)

    Just backing every qual once , 1 point win… 19 bets / 6 wins / +13.5 points.

    Hopefully he can build on that in the final 2/3rds of October.

    Josh

  5. 355 ponte i would be quite keen on totally magic today were it not for the bad draw(drawn 14 of 15). trainer is 13/6/9 +21 in last year at ponte and 34/9/18 +23 with this jockey, at this track 8/5/6 +22 in the last year, so at 16/1 makes this of some interest.. just that draw really niggles. Any views on high draws at ponte on soft gratefully received, cheers

    1. hi James, well.. for me, that is the kind of price range where I would say sod the draw to a point, and would instead let it impact on my staking amount rather than a yes or no bet. It will be tough from out there but in this ground they may come back to him, he may get out and get a position (or get stuck wide) or tuck in and swoop late. Yard is in form etc. So, if you like him, I wouldn’t necessarily be put off by the draw- at the price – that Menzies horse yesterday was punted in from 16s>5/1 and nearly won, close second.
      Josh

    1. I’m glad you had a piece Martin, i can’t say I did! 2 year old stats in general not done great and I must admit I didn’t give that one much of a look- saw the recent trainer form stats and made a quick judgement to move on by! On reflection… idiotically looked at this post race..in geegeez report, he is 2/7,3p 1st 2yo here in 5 years, +29 or so.. which suggests they go in at a price, and given he has had 5 in total in 5 years, that says plenty. never mind, i’ll live with that one!

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