Free Daily Post: 08/10/17 (complete)

TIPS

4.25 Limerick 

Arkwrisht – 1.5 point win – 13/2 (PP/BetfS/BV) 6/1 gen UP

Auvergnat – 1.5 point win – 7/1 (Lad/Betfred) 13/2 (gen) UP

Slowmotion – 1 point win – 16/1 (Lad/Coral) 14/1 (gen) UP

 

Update: haha, sometimes you just have to smile. Firstly the winner has dotted up there and nothing was beating him. I can’t bet 4/1 shots in races like that and will always take them on. No shock he has done that, one of those. Well, I am surprised he won quite so easily. Arkwrisht fell, having jumped ok up to that point, he brought down Auvergnat. Superb! Hopefully they all got up ok, i think they did. I missed what happened to Slowmotion as I was watching the end of Kelso’s 4.20  – but I assume she came to grief also. One of those to put a line through and forget pretty quickly. Still, +10 points on the 2 trips to autumn trips to Ireland and i’d take that every time.  

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This looks a cracker again and another 4 points spread on an Irish 3m+ chase in the mud. It will probably be the last one until the Irish National but we’ll see. +14 points on the Kerry National and we will see if I can add to the Irish pot today…

Arkwrisht- he seems the obvious one and I know that rarely works out, but I just couldn’t resist. I think his price is just about ok.. I still can’t believe he got so close the last day. He tanked through this and tried to take a few fences with him- each error never really knocked him out of his stride. He ran as if having plenty in hand and while he has gone up for that run I still think he could be well handicapped. His jumping is clearly the issue and maybe that will hold him back in this sphere. But, he rides on slightly less testing ground which may help him lift his feet. It may not. Of more interest is the fact he goes RH today, and get’s a different rider. That may not be a positive or a negative but at least something different. IF he can just make one or two slight errors, I think he is the most likely winner. We all know he will probably UR and if he fluffs his jumping lines here he may be one to leave moving forwards.

Auvergnat- I thought he looked interesting with a fairly lightly raced profile. He has been in decent form for Bolger and the break suggests this may well have been a plan. The trainer has a decent record here and he can ready them if needs be. He won for him after 61 days two starts ago and he could be best fresh. I also liked the fact that he will definitely stay, and has been a sound jumper. He will appreciate the softer ground than the last day and the harder they go the better. He looks a dour stayer. Maybe he gets out-paced but will stay. So will the horse above, if the fences don’t get in the way! I thought 7s, 13/2 looked decent enough given that profile. Time will tell.

Slowmotion – 14s generally seems on the big side and is well worth a go for this lightly raced chaser. She is only 5 but has an element of ‘could be anything’ about her,and it looks like BG has made the choice. Possibly. Or Walsh just rides the one above due to knowing the horse. She is unexposed at this distance- a chance she doesn’t actually stay the trip- but that is an unknown. We get a price. I am happy to assume the Heavy ground took it’s toll the last day when she was held up and never really given a chance. You do nowtwant to be at the back around that track/in that race- it is so hard to come from behind generally, let alone in heavy. At the price I was happy to have a nibble.

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PACE.. well I never like chasers being too far back.. the first two have tracked the pace before and I hope they race up there. Maybe BG gets Slowmotion in a better position- given her form over shorter she should have the pace to race where she wants. If they are all mid div/further back then that wouldn’t be ideal. We shall see.

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In general the last of stats to really help shortlist as below is annoying. I don’t know my Irish form/horses/connections like I do over here, but the age stat/form stats look interesting. On Fiddlers Green was of some interest.. I remember watching his last race when he was well fancied. Russell made a howler but leaving him unsighted at a fence- he took it home with him- and after that never really recovered. It was a bad error but I was still surprised how quickly he dropped out- that concern just put me off, as did Davvy jumping ship a bit, having ridden him plenty. He beat Auvergent when winning a couple of starts back, i hope the softer ground would see that form over-turned. Provided they both run their race.

Nothing else made my notepad when flicking through this race. There seem to be a lot of moderate chasers in this with many having a few questions, esp recent form. No doubt I haven’t mentioned the winner. Clearly the Mullins horse could win- 9/2 is short given the stamina unknown- he may well improve for it/relish it/demolish these- quite a trainer upgrade, but i’d want a slightly bigger price. I suppose Phils Magic should get a mention- he was in form when last seen and is 16s… I had a slight niggle about him looking better on Good, and whether soft over 24f may just tax his stamina, esp after a break. And a niggle that the handicapper may have him. I could have that wrong and is probably the biggie I fear most!

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That’s the lot for that race.

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4.35 Uttoxeter–  – nothing, i’ll leave this race alone.

 

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No micro systems etc.

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Munster National 

Stats/trends…

not much to go on really albeit…

10/10 aged 6-8 (9+ 0/50,6p.. no 5 year olds have ran in period)

Clear top weight 0/8,1p

9/10 Top 2 on at least once on last three runs

8/10 – Top 4 LTO

20 years…those that ran 121-365 days ago… 8/33 runners,12p, +48 (not a bad ‘micro’ / starting point)

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Those stats don’t really help with ‘shortlisting’ . I’ll keep an eye on the age stat but will attack the race ‘cold’ in the morning

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That’s all for today.

GL with any bets,

Josh

Don’t forget the big Czech race this afternoon.. preview HERE>>>

 

LAST CHANCE…

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Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

6 Comments

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  • Golf in Scotland – Tyrell Hatton has a 5 shot lead going in to the final round. If he can keep his nerve he will win the tournament. In second place is Gregory Bourdy who can go low on his day as he did on Saturday. You will know your fate with him after 6 holes as he will need a good start to be competitive. Worth a stab at 18.5/1.

    martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


    • Brandon Steele seems well placed to win in the USA sitting two off the pace against some inexperienced leaders going into the final round. The 6/1 available looks value.

      martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • 17.15 Navan: Irish Cesarewitch- Paying 6 Places Skybet.
    just having a quick look through and i thought Ted Veale 14-1 stood out as a bit of value, never won over 2m on the flat proper but has won a NH flat and hurdle over distance also will relish the going. he’s 10 now but not that heavily raced 11w/28p from 50 should give the younger horses a run for the money.

    martin whittle 2 weeks ago Reply


  • 4-35 uttox. seems a strange betting race with no apparent reason for Audacious Plan being fav apart from STD riding instead of being on NTD’s Brownville, Miami Present has run well last 2 and can’t be discounted but if 8 had stayed in i would have had an ew on Presented running off the same mark as his two 2nds in his latest outings, as i said strange betting and probably best left alone.

    martin whittle 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Football – Yesterday our Greece lay failed by one goal but our Oxford home win was comfortable for a small profit. Today is Scotland’s bi annual do or die match. Slovakia will look to hammer Malta and if that is the case Scotland need a win in Slovenia to get a play off place. As I said before this group is low on goals and so go for low goals or even a 0-0 draw. Northern Ireland could still do with some points to clinch a play off spot and so will play it tight in Norway. Again not many goals and a draw. As for England, they have won the group now and the last thing the players want is to traipse off to Lithuania to play this match. Again not many goals and even Lay England at 3/1 may be worth a bet?

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 2 weeks ago Reply


  • Seems to be a right old fashioned touch going on jonjo’s in the 4.35 I got on at 10s ( 6’s presently ) could easily be bookies making a false market but the surprisingly good early season form the yard is in I had to have 50 pence ew on

    Aaron Lumsden 2 weeks ago Reply


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