Members Daily Post: 28/09/17 (complete)

‘TIP’ + notes + Section 1, + test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Newmarket

3.10 – Toy Theatre (3yo+) G3 20/1 WON 20/1> 8/1 

4.55 – Afonso De Sousa (3yo+) I1 28/1 UP 50/1

5.30 – Night Circus (3yo+) 14,30  H3 8/1 UP

 

Pontefract

3.30 – Suitcase N Taxi (3yo+, + micro TJC)   14/1 UP

4.05 – Kenny The Captain (3yo+) H1 I1 4/1 UP

4.40 – Dance King (3yo+, + micro TJC) I1 G1 13/2 WON 7/1 SP 

5.50 – Van Gerwin (3yo+) I3 16/1 2nd  20/1 (close)

6.20 – Arrowtown (micro age) G3  7/1 WON 7/1>11/1 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Perth

2.45 – Jet Master (micro 90 days) I1 I1 G1 6/4 WON 6/4>9/4 

3.20 – Instingtive (all hncps + micro dist) H1 I3 G3 (only 3 runner race, bottom ratings on all) 5/1 UR (2 runner race! blimey)

5.40 – Solway Palm (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro runs) 28/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>   Welcome VIDEO: Watch HERE>>> (new)

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6)

 

5.30 Newmarket – Night Circus – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 8/1 (Bet365) UP

7/1 seems generous enough here as he does tick plenty of boxes… young, unexposed, trainer in red hot form, horse running ok/fit/in form… that is a solid foundation. Outside of his maiden (which was a win over CD) this is his first run in a C3, having run in Listed/C2 events. He moves up 1 furlong from his last run (he was staying on) and back at a track with a climb to the line. Both those factors looks sure to help. And he drops from that C2 to C3. He seems versatile ground wise, and the GS can’t be an excuse. In any case you should be more than happy to take a chance at the odds. He seemed to handle soft fine LTO, going forwards come the line, not backwards.

The final tick/idea, is around the field size/pace/tactics… he won a bit field maiden. Since then he has ran in small fields, more tactical races where I suspect they haven’t gone a true gallop. On his start here two starts go he was keen in a small field and didn’t settle. That told come the end. The hope is that they go a stronger pace here with more runners, that he can get cover, and finish off his race. I thought recent races/how they have been run, may be a valid excuse and this should suit much better today. We shall see if I have that right but with his profile at 7s/8s, i had to have a go. Win , lose or draw, i’m happy that is a good bet on paper. Remember, that is a ‘horse only based approach’ – i really haven’t bothered looking at the other runners in much depth! No need to that headache at this time in the  day, or in general in this type of race!

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NOTES…. (subjective, positives about some of the others… if a horse is not mentioned it does not mean I am negative as to their chance necessarily, just found more positives in those mentioned 🙂 )

Toy Theatre... WON 20/1>8/1  hmmm i will have a small nibble at BFSP, £2.50, maybe £5… she does at least have a ratings pointer. Only her 5th start on turf, SDS jumps back in the plate and she has 22lb less weight on her back than the last day. Maybe 9-12 is too much for her who knows, and hence why they have opted for a lower weight in a better race. She ran ok at Chester a couple of starts back. It is a stab and a step up in class. And the trainer could be in better form. There is a chance SDS tries and makes all also… the race is there to be won from the front by someone I think. The market would also suggest this is fairly open, much of a muchness at the top end. SO, clearly not one to go mad on, but you will see worse 20/1+ runners and you never know.

Dance King… WON 13/2>7/1 double top rated so of some immediate interest albeit that angle is only ticking along/not pulling up many trees just yet. This is a been there and done it horse. There is a run at Haydock in soft/C2, which suggests the ground could be fine here. And I think he may appreciate this stiff climb to the line. This could be hard work today and he does look a dour stayer… you can make a case I think. Clearly something could be more progressive, have more in hand. But he arrives in form and should run his race, if handling heavy. It is an unknown, but at the price just worth a dart I thought. Again, i’m not breaking the piggy bank with this one. .. I will mention Star of Rory.. who was an ES qual for us LTO at Haydock I think, or one strategy anyway…he looked like the winner all the way up the straight..before ‘dogging it’ I think.. they try blinkers here… my theory is that they should try and make all with him, so that he never has to pass another horse. Maybe he just got out-stayed the last day, but I wonder if they try and lead them a merry dance. He could be up there for a long way, only to be overhauled by DK in the final strides.. with the fav long gone in front of them! 🙂

Arrowtown… WON 11/1 at 8s or 9s, I think another little nibble… these could add up today! … She has yet to win, but some solid place efforts, 0/7,4p on turf. I don’t know if she is a monkey or just been unlucky.. but I did not that her two best runs have come in soft for me, and she has gone very close after a break. She may be best fresh, and in soft. So, she gets that today. Well, it’s heavy, but an unknown. She gets on well with this jockey and I suspect will travel well into it. I would like to think this trip, at this track, may be ideal. But who knows. The market may guide, but at 8s/9s, that seemed an ok price. Another roll of the dice.

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Instinctive... UR – in truth I didn’t look at any of these last night, but did read Nicks comment and on that basis alone threw something at him. His price has now gone and no doubt bookies are expecting a withdrawal of the second fav. His price was wrong last night and ‘i agree with Nick’. Who in their right mind would back that Russel fav at that price I have no idea.. my word. Have a word with yourself. Big weight, unproven in heavy (at this trip,some ok runs in it..but still a niggle), returns after 160+ days (has run well after breaks but never won) and the trainer is 0/17 in the last 30 days. Now, he could hack up. He might…but come on. Given those list of questions how the hell is that a good price. (was 1/2 at one point..) Brooke will try and win this from the front I suspect. He has won on heavy. He will appreciate this drop in trip. But 7/2 may be too short now.

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That’s the lot today. GL with any bets as usual.

 

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(Yesterday’s short price Twister double…I think there is a reason why muggy doubles are ‘muggy’ 🙂 !) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

1.50 Clon- Ri An Rian (25/1<, 16/1< best) UP

NTD

2.10 P – Calett Mad (m1) WON

3.55 P – Snobbery (m1) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Flat Strategy #6… Top Rated, 6/1+ morning prices.. another decent winner on Wednesday taking those to around +80 points and through the 20 winner mark from a good sample pool I think. They sit in the ‘monitoring’ section of the advised strategies but it may be time to ‘take note’ if you don’t already… that doesn’t necessarily mean back systematically, but note performance to date to help with any of your own analysis.  Again, some caution… they are only the the 14% win SR mark and I doubt will ever creep higher. That is clearly more than enough given the odds/profit to date, but as always will mean some painful losing runs every now and then. 30-45. Plenty of 10-25. I would be lying if I said I had been backing them systematically, but the habit of the ‘just in case 5’ for certain horses is creeping in! As always the info is there to use as you please and with any luck you remain content with any personal progress/growth of betting bank. 

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REQUEST FOR HELP….

I am about to launch into a members club drive… essentially to drum up more subscribers/trialists…as I think there is plenty more room.. I haven’t noticed us affecting prices in any way.

Anyway, and this is aimed at any longer term converts/happy members… if say you felt willing to post a positive comment/review, under this post HERE>>> , that would be appreciated 🙂

I often find it helps for others to see the thoughts of real members, rather than me talking about my own club etc.

This may well be met with a deadly silence, but any comments would be great. Every little helps as they say.

And of course please don’t feel obliged to post a comment, a small handful would be just the ticket!

Cheers in advance,

Josh

ps. you can post any comments, preferably positive, HERE>>> 🙂

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

40 Responses

  1. Appreciate he is only a ratings qualifier by default but the price on Instingtive in what is most likely to be a match is just wrong (the Crawford horse ran today on heavy ground and trainer has only ever twice had horses re-appearing in 24 hrs with no success so I would expect him to be pulled). Considering the odds on shot is running off a 160 day break, ridden by a jockey who hasn’t won in 3 months, has yet to win in 6 starts over heavy, is a dodgy jumper (has fallen 3 times in his last 9 starts) and is carrying 11st 12lb on stamina sapping ground. Ours carries 16lbs less, has the superior jockey, has race fitness and has won on heavy. Win or lose they should be much closer together.

    1. Looks a bit more like the correct price now. Might even lay-off if he gets backed into evens. I also have had a nibble on Dakota Grey in the race before given again he is the only one of the four who will definitely be race fit, has a low weight and handles the ground. Need to start looking at the small fields in more detail for the overpriced horses.

      1. Yep, he is just making all isnt he, probably at a slow pace and then kicking, job done! Seems like yard/owners may have picked a decent op for a steamer. Yea, small fields is another specialist skill I think, esp pace/lack of etc, but clearly opportunities… something for me to ponder also.

        1. Yeah I think particularly focusing on the front runners and ground extremes. Fairly certain that’s the first ever runner I have tipped in a 2 horse race! Still flogging myself for Welsh Bard a few weeks ago.

          BTW I agree with you on Night Circus. Last night I decided the race was too tricky too touch but did think he was one of the 2 most likely ones. With the ground slightly slower this morning slightly regretting not tipping him as an e/w bet last night.

          1. Thought 8s/7s looked decent enough.. and as you know, 3m+ chases are only races I like to tie myself up in knots with when it comes to making a judgement call on all the other runners!

            … Dakota Grey.. well I don’t want to jinx him but 7/2 is looking tempting… Twisters… well ground is an unknown and boy was it testing yesterday…his are usually fit enough for normal conditions but I’m not sure most were fit enough for that bog.. and TS has a big ground Q/+ the weight of course. Strong Economy… well the trainer is 1/31 with all runners 60+ days last 2 years, so a big fitness question on that front, and in general with the horse. That’s enough to leave at those odds. And Jet Master, well he is 6/4, aged 11, a decent record fresh but older horses can take longer to get fit..and the ground is an unknown for him.. well actually.. 0/3,0p.

            So DK my process of elimination.. but can also make a case for him. Clearly issues back end last year, but suspect he needed that run LTO and ran well to 2 from home. I’m not minded to wade in at 7/2, but in context of race/oppo, I may just have to. He is THE bet in that race, if there is one to be had…at the prices. Well to my naff 7/2< eyes anyway!

          2. He was 5s last night. 7/2 is getting a little thin given the amount of Ps in the recent form but yeah I came to the same conclusion as you.

          3. Hmmm.. i’ll leave them to you Nick!! That is two days in a row I have done something i wouldn’t normally haha (Twister muggy double, and a little tickle on him…trying to steel some beer money for 5) Winner drifted a bit but even so 9/4 was short enough. Oh well.
            He found very little.. maybe travelled too powerfully/strongly/pulled. Looked winner to eye for a long way.

  2. Josh the Appleby runner toy theare 3
    10 new could be worth a punt.SD’S booked rated 70 and he is raced in 0/90 handicap. Mick Appleby is shrewd may be he is better on turf than sand

    1. You make an interesting suggestion.
      Other positives: first time on a straight track; returns to faster going and drops in grade compared to last turf run at Chester on g/s – will be very limited chances of finding these conditions henceforth. Only 4 runs since 3 month break, months 4-7.
      Doesn’t seem to stay 8f. Lonrho seems an influence for quick. Run at Wolves in April suggested that these conditions might suit? May have be given a run round LTO as kept wide with TQ up.
      A strong negative is the small field/no pace scenario.
      However SDS could make all if required.
      Plenty of 20/1 with the books; price under pressure at present on BF so avoid.

      1. I think there is enough there.. shouldn’t be over-thinking 20s shots too much in terms of negatives, if there are enough positives/interesting points. That will be my £5 note on BF exchange that has put that price under pressure! 🙂 GL

  3. 2.55 Pont….. R Becket has 2 runners Di Fede and Camomile Lawn… he targets P under certain conditions and returns 33% winners. Travels over 200 miles.
    He falls down on just 1 condition today… That of no distance movement from last race….. But at the prices…maybe worth a tickle.
    Any comments. It’s the only race targeted.

    Tony Mc.

    1. Hmm, interesting… fact he sends two would niggle at me, for same race… could just be throwing darts.. looks that way with the biggie anyway.. his other one.. well I think there looks to be a big stamina niggle, in this ground/track.. but… he hasn’t proved he can’t handle it..has had issues settling it seems.. and as yet hasn’t looked like he wants much further than 7f… but you never know.. he could just relish these conditions and at 12s, if you have a stats way in, I can see why you may be tempted. I’d want to see some market life for the other one I think. But clearly unexposed. Fact he hasn’t pulled them both, knowing ground was likely to be testing, is interesting..has still bothered to make the trip. Head scratcher. Although at this time of year the no. opportunities start to dwindle a bit. On the fence. At the moment my shrapnel is still in my wallet!
      And it is a nursery.. not race types I have much specific knowledge on- generally a mindfield and you’d always want one at a price.
      GL Josh

    1. Hi Paul.. yep, I need to try and not put you off horses, as if you like them/price you should have a go… but if you want to know what went through my head… this is a C4, and he is 0/10,1p at this level, that niggled at me. His GG speed rating is near the bottom which concerned me, albeit up there on I3. The draw niggled..very wide, and seems pace on inside..so could get stuck wide or have to take medicine and hope for a gap.. and then the going.. will be on heavy side.. but that is more an unknown, never raced on it over 5f really. And this could have been a plan. As he wasn’t a strategy pic, nor with that ‘unexposed’ profile, he was one I was happy to have nothing on as I write… but you saw a couple days ago how wrong i can be when negative…albeit I threw something at those given they were ES.
      Josh

    1. Like i said Paul, my job is not to put you off.. that is the whole point of this approach! I have put myself off, but this is a game of subjective views, and you will be right many times when I am wrong, and vice versa!
      You have to have something on him. GL Josh

    2. My main tipster has tipped it up yesterday. After blowing the 45 pts he picked up earlier in the month he managed to pick up 75pts in the past week and a half so certainly in form.

      Personally I have had a small bet on Impart who ran well from a bad draw in class 2 sprint at the Ebor meeting which has worked very well and is technically 14lbs better off with a great draw in stall 1. I do think he is better on straight tracks and didn’t expect heavy ground (although hoping it will dry a bit by 6PM) but couldn’t leave it at the price.

  4. Thursday 5.50 Pontefract

    Quick Look 11/1

    Drawn 11 (could be lower but two historic wins 11 & 14 in last ten years)
    Back to 5F from 6F & 7F, last two runs.
    Excellent form on Soft; Hy today; quick enough to win.
    NOTE: Mick Easterby is using Cam Hardie and not his claimer.
    Smells like classic Easterby plot.
    Clavis

      1. Not sure what it is, mentally.. something about knowing I am betting 5s generally (against general stakes 10-15, 3m+ chase is £20 per point, bet of day £10) seems to make the eyes look at them in a more relaxed way, more forgiving of negatives, focus on positives more.
        I’ll keep at it!

        1. Sorry Josh, I meant the horses you highlight in the notes section not comments section. I’d be interested to know what strike rate they have because I seem to recall quite a few going in and at some decent prices too. I only normally bet using the advised strategies that require the ratings pointers as well so the notes horses add a nice safely net to scoop up a few bonus winners that are outside the advised strategies.

          1. Yep I thought that’s what you meant. Well they are around 74 points up this week with plenty of non strategy winners, which is part of the aim but I like taking a view on all the runners. Even if just staking amount..whether to have more on say. They were 6/30 odd but could be around the 10/40 odd mark this month. I’ll have a look. Maybe be more bets than that.

    1. Yea worked out well, I started to get very excited as soon as he got the lead (as hoped) bagged the rail and went his own pace..that has won it there. Superb ride. Slowed it down before the climb I think. Can’t complain with that. Brightened up a Thursday afternoon. 🙂

      You and Chris both made some interesting points that didn’t really cross my mind!
      Great effort.

  5. josh why i like yours stats so much is that it gives us a insight to the trainers thinking, if had just been reading the form book when we assessed the race after we would have been tearing our hair why mick appleby had run a 70 handicapper in a90 handicap race. yours stats tell us the secrets of the trainer. hats off to you josh

    1. Cheers Paul, I think between myself in notes, and Paul/Chris in comments we had everything covered there for why at that price, you had to have a nibble. As always you want more on but we can’t be greedy! Was satisfying solving that puzzle and being right with a biggie. Onwards.

  6. Hi Guys, decided to take the plunge today and sign up and what can I say subscription paid for already! I look forward to more views and opinions on horses.

    1. Hi Robert, welcome aboard… ah one thing you are guaranteed in these parts is views and opinions on horses! Aim is to back enough decent priced winners to pay for the many losers and keep a hefty chunk of profit left over.
      Josh

    1. May have had a bigger go than initially planned! 🙂 Wondered if he would get there but picked up well, a few taps and away he went. Leaders were treading water… qualifier for #1 + #6 strategies, nice price, could make a case on paper. Worth a dart!

  7. “only to be overhauled by DK in the final strides..”

    Have you thought about taking a hand at reading people’s futures Josh 😉

    I wasn’t on Toy but that one keeps things ticking over.

    1. Ah that’s those geegeez pace maps haha- if he was going to win it was like that, that’s how he does it… some pace on paper.. thought too far back but class has told..a few taps and thankfully leaders may have gone for home too soon. Hard work there.

    1. Must admit Paul i threw £2.5 at him when I saw his BF price… i was half on edge of my seat there and thought we had it! Good shout, you got that right, I got that wrong. And nearly very wrong!

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