Free Daily Post: 28/09/17 (complete)

Members’ Notes… micro… Special offer…

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Days Trainers

5.30 Newm – Reach High (14/1<)

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Members’ post.. ‘the notes’… my subjective thoughts on some of the qualifiers from Section 1 of today’s Members’ Post…. if anything these notes are there to provide something of interest to read, to compliment the advised systematic strategies etc…

 

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6)

5.30 Newmarket – Night Circus – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 8/1 (Bet365)

7/1 seems generous enough here as he does tick plenty of boxes… young, unexposed, trainer in red hot form, horse running ok/fit/in form… that is a solid foundation. Outside of his maiden (which was a win over CD) this is his first run in a C3, having run in Listed/C2 events. He moves up 1 furlong from his last run (he was staying on) and back at a track with a climb to the line. Both those factors looks sure to help. And he drops from that C2 to C3. He seems versatile ground wise, and the GS can’t be an excuse. In any case you should be more than happy to take a chance at the odds. He seemed to handle soft fine LTO, going forwards come the line, not backwards.

The final tick/idea, is around the field size/pace/tactics… he won a bit field maiden. Since then he has ran in small fields, more tactical races where I suspect they haven’t gone a true gallop. On his start here two starts go he was keen in a small field and didn’t settle. That told come the end. The hope is that they go a stronger pace here with more runners, that he can get cover, and finish off his race. I thought recent races/how they have been run, may be a valid excuse and this should suit much better today. We shall see if I have that right but with his profile at 7s/8s, i had to have a go. Win , lose or draw, i’m happy that is a good bet on paper. Remember, that is a ‘horse only based approach’ – i really haven’t bothered looking at the other runners in much depth! No need for a headache at this time in the  day, or in general in this type of race!

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NOTES…. (subjective, positives about some of the others… if a horse is not mentioned it does not mean I am negative as to their chance necessarily, just found more positives in those mentioned )

(positive mentions for horses in the ‘notes’ are around +35 points up in September, if you’d have thrown 1 ‘point’ at them each…as a guide…they are not tips, just added info /thoughts to use as you please..but have done ok at highlighting nice priced winners from the initial list of trainer stats qualifiers) 

Toy Theatre... (3.10 New) WON 20/1> 8/1 (hopefully, you ignored my BFSP advice, or did so when you noticed some market support…20s for an age, 23.00 BF, 16s>14s>then it crashed) hmmm i will have a small nibble at BFSP, £2.50, maybe £5… she does at least have a ratings pointer. Only her 5th start on turf, SDS jumps back in the plate and she has 22lb less weight on her back than the last day. Maybe 9-12 is too much for her who knows, and hence why they have opted for a lower weight in a better race. She ran ok at Chester a couple of starts back. It is a stab and a step up in class. And the trainer could be in better form. There is a chance SDS tries and makes all also… the race is there to be won from the front by someone I think. The market would also suggest this is fairly open, much of a muchness at the top end. SO, clearly not one to go mad on, but you will see worse 20/1+ runners and you never know.

Dance King… (4.40 Ponty) WON 8/1  double top rated so of some immediate interest albeit that angle is only ticking along/not pulling up many trees just yet. This is a been there and done it horse. There is a run at Haydock in soft/C2, which suggests the ground could be fine here. And I think he may appreciate this stiff climb to the line. This could be hard work today and he does look a dour stayer… you can make a case I think. Clearly something could be more progressive, have more in hand. But he arrives in form and should run his race, if handling heavy. It is an unknown, but at the price just worth a dart I thought. Again, i’m not breaking the piggy bank with this one. .. I will mention Star of Rory.. who was an ES qual for us LTO at Haydock I think, or one strategy anyway…he looked like the winner all the way up the straight..before ‘dogging it’ I think.. they try blinkers here… my theory is that they should try and make all with him, so that he never has to pass another horse. Maybe he just got out-stayed the last day, but I wonder if they try and lead them a merry dance. He could be up there for a long way, only to be overhauled by DK in the final strides.. with the fav long gone in front of them! 🙂

Arrowtown…(6.20 Ponty) WON 11/1   at 8s or 9s, I think another little nibble… these could add up today! … She has yet to win, but some solid place efforts, 0/7,4p on turf. I don’t know if she is a monkey or just been unlucky.. but I did not that her two best runs have come in soft for me, and she has gone very close after a break. She may be best fresh, and in soft. So, she gets that today. Well, it’s heavy, but an unknown. She gets on well with this jockey and I suspect will travel well into it. I would like to think this trip, at this track, may be ideal. But who knows. The market may guide, but at 8s/9s, that seemed an ok price. Another roll of the dice.

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Instinctive... (3.20 P) in truth I didn’t look at any of these last night, but did read Nicks comment (in members’ post last evening) and on that basis alone threw something at him. His price has now gone and no doubt bookies are expecting a withdrawal of the second fav having run yesterday. His price was wrong last night and ‘i agree with Nick’. Who in their right mind would back that Russel fav at that price I have no idea… Have a word with yourself. Big weight, unproven in heavy (at this trip,some ok runs in it..but still a niggle..and esp if he may not be a1 fitness wise), returns after 160+ days (has run well after breaks but never won) and the trainer is 0/17 in the last 30 days. Now, he could hack up. He might…but come on. Given those list of questions how the hell is that a good price. (was 1/2 at one point..) Brooke will try and win this from the front I suspect. He has won on heavy. He will appreciate this drop in trip. But 7/2 may be too short now. Money seems to be flooding in….

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That’s the lot today. GL with any bets as usual.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. Competitive racing today, lacking quality and a bit of a minefield I think. Two selections at a price – Deadly Reel, 2.55 Pon, will be suited by a stiffish test; Ooty Hill, 4.55 Nkt, once thought to be high class and has had its issues. Change of stable and we shall see if there is anything there?

    On the football front – Our lay English teams in Russia micro was successful once out of two goes for a small profit. This evening I would lay Arsenal, who will rest players and Bate have some good form at home. I like at 7/1 FK Vardar away to Rosenborg. The home team are nothing special and FK have had some good results in the earlier rounds of the Europa League.

    Good luck.

    1. Martin do you think Liverpool are worth taking on against Newcastle
      after their mid week trip to Moscow

      Palace will be a massive price at Utd but they to travel back from Moscow
      United likely to be 1/6 so may be worth a small lay

      1. Blaspheme Peter!! Get out of here and never return hahah 🙂 I jest. But seriously. Any talk of betting against Liverpool does not go down well in RTP towers… (that’s was’t serious btw)
        Probably.. well.. Rafa with have a tactical plan to nullify us, and will probably stifle us.. we’ll concede from a corner and that will be that 🙂
        Josh

        1. Hi Josh,
          I am a West Ham man and happy to lay them at short prices

          The logic is simply if they lose I win a few quid so not so gutted that
          they have got beat.
          If they win I am very happy with the points(we need all we can get at the moment)
          so not bothered about losing a few quid.

          If I back them and they lose I am sick twice ha ha

  2. Depends on the price but if you can get 6/4 + 1X then yes. The 7/2 home win may tempt some. Liverpool have had an extra days rest though. Man U had an easy win and Palace are pretty poor and have to contend with Roy Hodgson as manager. I cannot fancy anything bar a home win.

  3. Man city are a shorter price than Chelsea
    in their match this weekend
    I know City are banging in goals for fun
    but Chelsea look really good at the moment as well

    4-0 at Stoke and winning in Madrid are very strong results
    and while the game could go either way I can’t get the logic of City being favourites on Chelseas home patch

    A game that really catches my imagination
    is Benficas home game with Victoria Setubal late November.

    in the Midweek before the game Benfica go to Moscow which involves a 5500+
    round trip.
    They are playing pretty poorly at the moment (lost 5-0) last night
    so will be vulnerable
    they will be a very short price to see of Setubal who are near the bottom of the Portuguese league
    as a top side against a lowly team Benfica at home will likely be about 2/9

    The main thing of course is where Benfica stand in the champions league group
    heading out to Moscow if they are still in with a chance of at least third the first team
    will likely travel but if they have zero points and are totally out of it
    then they are liable to put out a weekend team in Moscow

    if that is the scenario then they will beat Setubal but get thrashed in Moscow
    either way you could have a good bet

    you either lay Benfica against Setubal of if they send the reserves to Moscow
    back the home team to win big

    1. The bloke down the road tells me Klopp is off to Bayern. If Ancelotti swaps roles with Klopp the defence should improve at Liverpool. Horrible thought Josh…….Harry Redknapp is available!

      Have a good evening.

      1. Oh he is in love with the place, think your chap down the road has been smoking something! Owners won’t push him, unless he left as unhappy at something behind the scenes. Leaving now seen as failure, so he wont.

  4. Copied from today’s members section …,, ” 1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

    FLAT

    Newmarket

    3.10 – Toy Theatre (3yo+) G3 20/1 WON 20/1> 8/1 “.. Great work again Josh ….. New members.. form an orderly queue Gents 🙂

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