Members Daily Post: 26/09/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

No ‘tips/Bet of the day’, none on the profile I like to stick to generally for that purpose…but some notes to ignore as you please…

Kirkham arguably looks most interesting at the prices, and what being treble rated, double top, top 6/1+, he ticks a few strategy boxes to boost confidence. It is a low grade race and this one took an age to win his first race LTO, so not one i’ll be going too mad on. But there is a chance that win LTO will have boosted his confidence… I read once how winners can be showered with affection back at home, how they are suddenly the centre of attention for a few days and those that work with them daily are in a more jubilant mood, as you would expect. And that kind of thing does rub off on horses- so, maybe, just maybe, he has turned a corner. There are enough ok runs on soft for me not to be put off, it is a question,but 8s allows the play. And he should race prominently enough. He may have been in the right position LTO off a slow pace- but I can’t really be over thinking a horse too much at that price, with those ratings pointers next to his name.

Lost Legend… I will have a dabble at 9/2, I think that is just about ok. He seems to have found some form again and Jonjo has managed to turn him into a stayer it seems, having been a 20f horse all his career. Maybe as he has got older he is just more of a one paced galloper. The soft may have just stretched him the last day and this slightly better ground should help. The 58 days rest is a tiny niggle, but only that. In any case, he is a chaser in form and that can count for plenty. He has won off much higher marks and while he is getting older, his mark shouldn’t be a problem. The race is full of older horses so I am not as fussed about that as I would usually be.  9/2 is just about ok, I wouldn’t want shorter, but hopefully he can build on Jonjo’s impressive C4 stats here in recent years. (9/36,13 p, +48 BFSP)

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I am personally not jumping up and down to back anything else really… as always don’t be put off by the following, esp if you just back strategies systematically… but as you know I like to take a view, esp on confidence and how that translates to staking. That is very subjective, but I get more satisfaction that way, and it keeps the brain ticking over. (annoying when you get it wrong of course,or don’t have as much on a decent winner as you could have done, but that’s how I like to play the game)… and on the ES front, they are trainer based angles and nothing to do with the actual horse…

Pioneering… i’m a bit on the fence, and he may get something, possibly.. a crisp £5 just in case… but he runs on soft for the first time, he drops in trip which doesn’t look to be a positive and he moves up in class. He won LTO pretty much from the front off a steady pace. I don’t think he will be able to lead here. Maybe if he relishes soft then his extra stamina will come into play. And he is still lightly raced. He is 7s, so I don’t want to be too dismissive albeit I was more negative than positive on him. We shall see if I have that right.

Strongly Suggested… at this moment in time I have nothing on him.. knowing me i’ll get nervous a few mins before and throw £2.50 at him BFSP! He is 0/24,1p in handicaps when sent off bigger than 8/1 SP, he is 0/16,0p in handicaps Sept-Dec and you are asking a 10 year old to do something new – stay this trip. He also looks woefully out of form. He is the kind of winner that would leave me bemused and scratching my head. So, we shall see. My head just says no. And so does my gut. And while it would be annoying, I could live with him winning carrying none of my money. Setting myself up for a fall here… (indeed I was… after Pioneering I may have had a bit more than £2.5 but not much.. well £5 at 17.5 BFSP… usual ES stake is £10… scratching my head! And if any of that above has put you off backing him/having usual stake on.. you have permission to swear in the comments! I should just stick to ‘positives’ Bloody Jonjo :)… blimey) 

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That’s the lot today. Hopefully you had a gander at the free post… (click ‘Home’ when logged into members area and you’ll see all posts in one place).. if you see a 3m+ handicap chase, C4+ from now on, it’s highly likely i’ll have had a good look at it. They are my ‘tipping’ race of choice… in any case it is looking like job done with the selection, who was widely available at 8s for an age, and is generally 11/2, 5/1 now. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went off fav, but 8/1, as per vid, was 2/3 points too big, when everything else looked the right price. I have thrown a saver at the Twister qualifier below, to cover my stake,as you can make a case for him. 5s felt ok, rather than generous.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

TWISTON-DAVIES (link to research in Key, test zone)

3.30 Warw- Belmount (M1 + M4) WON 5/1>3/1 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: Advised strategy links in Key have been updated.

Hopefully you backed a winner or two.

FLAT- Strategy #6 is starting to look tasty, having hit the 20 winners mark, Top Rated 6/1+ on morning prices (said price I put next to horse), SP irrelevant. With a 14% win SR that will be a bumpy ride, but it is finding decent priced winners and that +68 points is the important figure. And that isn’t skewed by any monster, 33/1+ winners. Another ‘way in’ in any case.

if you’d backed all 6 strategies, every horse, inc multiple quals (ie horse hit 2 or more strategies)… 22 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / +23.5 points.

Anyway, as always flick through the results if you wish and use the info how you please.

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Blessed To Empress…

‘my’ horse (2.5% of her) runs at Lingfield in the 3.40. I have had a little nibble at 8s. These are ideal conditions really and there is no excuse on paper. She has a win in her from this mark. 5f on the AW looks to be her thing at the moment. She needed the run at Notts in the end, which combined with the trip just took it’s toll. But Kirby was positive after that. As was Murphy after Brighton- we wanted decent ground but that was awful come race time, definitely on the soft side. Again that combined with the trip just stretched her I think. I personally don’t think she has learnt to race properly yet. She is a bit of a madam , can play up pre race, and does like to pull. It may be no surprise that when she won first time up she made all. There is a chance being surrounded by horses just sparks her up. There are a few front runners in this so we shall see how she goes. I don’t think she will be able to dominate. We shall see. I’m hoping for a better showing.

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INTRO VIDEO… I do plan to record an introductory video for the Members’ Club for any newbies, and I need to update welcome info now we are moving into the Jumps etc. With any luck I get that done today. I’ll try and keep it short!! 🙂

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