Free Daily Post: 26/09/17 (complete)

TIP + Vid/notes + another special offer…

TIPS

3.30 Warwick

Kilfinichen Bay – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP – Poor run, travelled well, but little there in final 1/2 mile or so… no excuse from what I can see.. was a bit weak before the off. Line through that. At least it was a good start for the Twister micro. 

 

Video Preview…. (should add that this vid isn’t me analysing the race cold… i did all that before recording and it took little longer than 15 mins…this is me trying to skip over important bits/what stood out/ have no doubt missed something..) 

 

Notes…

The selection.. in short, I thought 8s was 2/3 points too big.. for a horse that won the race last year, whose trainer is in red hot form, who is fit, stays, handles the track/conditions, and who showed a glimpse LTO that he may be about to come to the boil. He is a dour stayer. He will need them to go a good pace here but will be staying on late and 8s allowed the play.

Of the rest… well most/all had the odd question in the context of their price. There are fitness questions for a couple, and the odd stamina niggle. And in general I thought they were all around the right price. It is an open race and plenty of these arrive in here on the back of decent runs LTO. Many are not too over-raced over fences and most may not have registered their best chasing performance as yet. You can make a case for plenty. Belmount hits some of my Members’ Twister stats for this time of year and a case can be made. And Fact Of The Matter– well he has proven stamina and arrives here fit and in form. And on that basis would have a better chance than some I think. Maybe those two will give me most to think about, we shall see!

GL with any bets.

 

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(I will get round to updating the results for ‘tips’ at some point. Jumps..it was about +75 points 2016, similar in 2015 I think…and this year, 2017 to date…inc the Cheltenham Festival (+42 or so), possibly around the +70 to +85 point mark so far this year. Profit tends to come in spikes. We did +90 points in Jan 2016 when everything clicked. Festival ‘week’ was +64 points this year,inc Chase The Spud at Uttox, 20s. The Uttoxeter Summer Cup winner (+11 on race) and Kerry National winner (+14) have kept things ticking over in recent weeks. On we go. I have no fears about my ability to come out in front, over time, in these race types/big weekend chases/Festivals) 

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No system qualifiers/bets.

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Members’ Club: Special Offer…. 4 months for £7…

You’ll hear more on this in the coming days (lucky you! 🙂 ) …but I have changed things around a bit…

…whereby you can now get 4 month  full members’ access for just £7.  This offer will close in early October and is your last chance to jump aboard at existing prices. It dawned on me that 21 Days may not be long enough to immerse yourself in my very unique club, but 4 months should do it. The content finds many decent winners, the advised systematic strategies tick along and pull in the profits over time, and all in all it’s just bloody good fun. Not. Biased. At. All! But, you can see for yourself by joining HERE>>>

I’ll record a video asap which actually explains what you get/what the club is about etc.

(oh...and if you have ever previously been a member of any sort.. you should be able to log back in with old details and sign up for free for 4 months, no need to even pay £7) 

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IMPORTANT….!  (message for anyone who signed up to SP2A’s special offer – if you haven not heard from them )…. Ian has just posted in the Offer post…

Hi just a bit of an update/housekeeping issue. I have acknowledged all payments, sent access codes to get tips online at SP2A and am mailing out tips. In all instances the acknowledgement / tips / access codes have been sent to the e-mail address quoted on PAYPAL payment.

In a few cases people have contacted after a day or two to say “not heard anything” but from a different e-mail address and one not quoted on Paypal. So, if you have paid for service and not heard anything back and you use an e-mail different from your Paypal account PLEASE drop us a message via Contact Form on SP2A (HERE>>>) website with your preferred e-mail address and we will do the necessary.

We can’t promise winners but we do promise outstanding customer service and will therefore do all we can to ensure people get tips and info they have paid for but if we are sending to wrong e-mail address obviously, you aren’t going to get it!

Regards

Ian

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. I did the free 21 day’s end of august and ended up signing up a couple of weeks ago for a full membership. Great website with some excellent strategies and great comments from a variety of members. I’d highly recommend anyone taking up this offer.

    1. i’ll send a tenner in the post Matt! 🙂 That is very kind of you and I am glad you are enjoying the ride. We have a long way to go yet and with any luck you relish the jumps content in the months ahead.
      Cheers
      Josh

  2. Yes I’m ready now for the jumps season to kick in. Its something I’ve been looking forward to for a while now, should be some exciting months ahead for the guys on here.

  3. Evening Josh,

    For better or worse I think you’re spot on about the 15:30. I think you pretty much covered everything although I would add that Longsdon is 5/18, 6p in handicap chases at the track and all three of his handicap chasers he sent to the track were victorious last year (double at this meeting). The horse itself is 1121 is September. I do think Belmount is the main danger particularly given his record fresh and the fact that the cheekpieces come off here so its a good thing he is a Twister qualifier.

    In the 16:05 I want to take a flier on Keepin Time. Has shown nothing so far but the considering this is a Skelton horse he really shouldn’t be 20/1. I was drawn to the fact Harry is slimming down to 10st2lbs for only the 3rd time this year 1/3, 3p (10/19, 12p in C4/5 handicap hurdles when weighing 11st3lb or less). They also put on a first time tongue tie (7/14, 10p in C4/5 handicap hurdles with a first time tongue tie when Harry rides-11/25, 17p if you include chases-5/10,8p this year) It is interesting that they have persevered with him considering they won’t have many lower rated horses in the yard. (9/14, 11p in handicaps this year when rated 90 or lower with Harry riding). I appreciate some of these stats overlap but even than they’re pretty strong.

    Moving on to the all-weather I thought Ghadaayer was overpriced in the 19:40. Ran a solid race in a class 3 at Goodwood which has worked out very well (1st won agian, 2nd was runner up in a listed race and won a class 2, 7th won a class 2 and 8th and 11th also won) She than raced in a much stronger class 2 race and was never put into the race. She drops back into a class 4 and races at Chelmsford for the first time which given she is out of a Shamardal stallion (20/98, 51p with progeny at the track) should suit. Stoute has a wonderful record in handicaps at the track including 6/13, 7p in the past 12 months. Dane O’Neill comes here for just the one ride and gets on with her (was on for her only two wins this year and was 3rd on her debut last year). She is comfortable either tracking the pace or front running and has a perfect draw to do either (all pace drawn outside her). Gets a weight for age allowance from half the field. I thought 9/1 looked big.

    PS I know it sounds a little cheeky but given the 16:35 is a 3 mile class 4 chase (you did say class 4+ lol) will you be looking at that one mate? I personally couldn’t figure that one out so left it alone.

    Regards,
    Nick

      1. I won’t have time i don’t think so picked one haha…two should be fine once everything settles down. I have a rather long non daily blog content to do list! Did browse and saw plenty of 10+ horses in it so stopped there. Feeling my way back in slowly. Josh

  4. So glad you tipped Kilfinichen Bay . Charlie Longsdon is on fire and I wouldn’t of looked elsewhere regardless of anything else, but and a big BUT, its definitely a fiendishly difficult race to solve IMO obviously. I have FOUR runners on my micros that come up in this and the others are not out of it either so I’m not liking this at all!

    Fort Worth and Buachaill Alainn too short, leaves me with Kilfinichen Bay and Belmount no other logic! Trust the micros for me! ( albeit the two bigger priced of the four)
    Should be a good race to watch, you guys are much better at analysing the details than I’ll ever be so GL.

    1. Yep, you could make a case for a few… but without doubt the longsdon horse looked the only one over-priced/the wrong price, to my eyes. Ticks all the boxes… proven course, distance, ground, stays well, normally jumps ok, yard in form, horse is fit/recent runs… whatever he does 8s just seemed to big to me. You can make cases for the rest, but they all have the odd question, in context of their price. We shall see. GL

  5. I watched the video last night and follow your logic. I have had a bet at 8/1 but thought that the selection needs to have a few things go for it up front to be competitive. Hopefully the horse watched your video and understands the plan?

    The racing is not good at present but will try and find a few winners.

    Good luck.

    1. Yep, all about price Martin.. he needs a strong pace/a collapse/ability to keep tabs on them/nothing to get away on the front.. which is why you want a price. If he were put in at 4s (which could well be his SP given the money coming) I would have left the race, 8s is too big.. point of that approach is to build in that risk that ‘the horse needs a few things to go for it’ – and you can equally pick holes in everything else at a shorter price. At least his question is one of tactics… and not stamina/fitness.. which is a question for a few in here.

      JJ Burke can be more aggressive.. I suspect they hold him up for a reason as not to light him up/be too keen, but it would be great if they raced him just off the pace in 3rd or something, tracking Baileys/Jonjos. If he can race comfortably in that position i’d be quiet confident the race is his and the only danger would be the fences.
      GL.

  6. Two dangers , for me, in the 3.30 race are…..FACT OF THE MATTER and MINELLACELEBRATION. I got 8.4 on KILFINCHEN BAY early this morning so near enough to the price.

    Good luck everyone.
    Denis.

  7. GOLF BETS BRITISH MASTERS CLUB HOUSE NEWCASTLE

    Ian Poulter 1/4 6 28/1 SJ Sporting bet different terms 33/ and 30/1 will record SJ SB
    Not in the best form however Club House will suit,and as had a week off after not Qualifying for the Tour Championship,and with the home crowd behind him he should excel another Ryder Cup i hope.

    Eddie Pepperell 1/4 5 40/1 LA UNIBET BETSARS 188 32 RED
    Over priced in my view deserves to win a tournament having finished 5th 3rd 3rd in his last three tour events and again course will suit.
    Mcllroy or Garcia may win but again their prices are not for me.

    1. bad luck with last weeks selections. he was in with a shout coming into the last round. but still showed a profit which is what its all about.
      thanks for sharing your insight with us for this week.

  8. Hi Josh, not too much emphasis on Buachaill Alainns steam train finish to nearly head sonnofpresenting at Worcester which had Kilfinichen Bay back in 4th. I had landed on Buchaill Alainn and still feel that he will appreciate the step up more than others, but will go on the forecast now with the Longsden horse!

    1. Hi Gillan, yep I didn’t want that video to be longer than 15 mins and if I were to go through each horse as I do when analysing it would have been too long!
      All about price.. I did not think 5/1 left much room for manoeuvre and wasn’t overly generous- given that he is more exposed than a lot of these and he is a lazy bugger who could tail himself off- very much depends on his frame of mind- but he will stay and knows how to jump – if on a going day and clearly travelling well, he could win. He got close LTo more so because the winner idled/ran out of gas. I have explained why I think that was an ok run from the selection LTO- given the trip/the way the race was run/the ground (in context of trip) – he got outpaced, rallied for a furlong or two and looked like he might sweep past, then just plugged on..but kept going (he didn’t stop/go backwards) – thought there was a chance he may have been aimed at this to peak today, 2.5f further than LTO and he needs every yard of it.
      when BA won at Sedgefield I didn’t back him… i knew within 2f i’d made the wrong call as i’d never seen him travel so sweetly… if he is clearly travelling early he is by no means out of it.. I just preferred the 8/1 on the selection against his 5/1, and such prices of various others.
      GL
      Josh

  9. Josh
    What happened to Guerrilla Tactics as a TJC selection won 10/1 have you not selected J Scott Nick Schofield combo in the past, ie Moorland Jack? Maybe mistaken!
    Unfortunately, I missed it. Damn.

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike, that micro is only for handicap chases (not novice), that was a hurdle. I do miss things every now and then, not him this time. Josh

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