1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
G1 added to Azari, 4.35…
FLAT
Salisbury
3.20 – Marble Statue (2YO) 11/1 UP
4.20 – Thafeera (3yo+) 5/2 WON 5/2
4.50 – Opinionate (3yo+) G3 9/2 WON 9/2>11/4
Haydock
3.30 –
Heaven’s Rock (all hncps + micro tjc) 7/1 WON 7/1>9/1
Pumaflor (micro TJC) I1 10/1 UP
Parole (micro TJC/distance) ES G3 9/1 3rd 11/1
4.35-
Azari (all hncps + micro TJC) H1 G1 4/1 2nd 4/1
Tawdeea (micro TJC) I3 G1 G39/2 UP
5.05 – King of The Celts (micro class) 20/1
JUMPS
Sedgefield
4.10 – Master of Finance (all hncps) ES I3 G3 5/1 2nd 3/1
4.40 – Turtle Cask (micro TJC/Distance) I1 14/1 UP
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KEY
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
I1/I3 = Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE
‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>> (updated to 03/09/17)
‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>> (updated to 03/09/17)
Test Zone: | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> | C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>
Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>
Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>
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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 7/67,24p, +1.9) (Jumps: 9/63, +24.5) (total: 17/130, +26.6)
4.10 Sedge – Master Of Finance – 1 point win – 9/2 2nd 3/1
Well I don’t often moan about rides as it all evens out etc etc (you back many winners,that win due to poor rides in behind).. but what was Hughes doing??? That horse often races prominently and if he had him sat ‘in the van’ tracking pace, then gets after him earlier, he wins that. Closing all the way to the line, gave him far too much to do. That’s racing. On we go. He is a bit of a monkey, or can be, so understand idea of delivering late.. albeit when he won at Ayr he hit front long way out and didn’t have to pass anything. If he tracks in second he may take that up top of run, and may have kept going. Anyway. Line under that now.
9/2 seems fair enough for this one given that he is 0/3,1p in handicap hurdles and I can live in hope that he will show more one day in this sphere – and where better place than Sedgefield where the racing is generally at the lower end… but much more engrossing than say a card at Yarmouth!! (or is that just me?) It helps that he is an ES qualifier but he does have an interesting profile and the ‘story’ makes sense.
On his second start for Jefferson he won an Ayr maiden hurdle in impressive style…a race that has produced the odd winner and numerous placed horses. That was last October, nearly 1 year ago. He then raced in a novice hurdle with a penalty I assume and ran with credit. He was then pitched into a G2 novice hurdle at Haydock where the late Neon Wolf won well (poor soul, cruel game this at times. He had a bright future) He then ran well at Market Rasen at this level, to finish 2nd where possibly the soft over 17f blunted his speed/and took it’s toll stamina wise in the latter stages. While they may get rain here hopefully it wont be soft. He ran well again at Wetherby where some crunching errors may have taken their toll in the closing stages but the front two were miles clear and the winner would go on to win again/run well. They then removed the CP and replaced with blinkers in an Aintree C2 at the GN meeting. I don’t think he is up to that level. He then ran at Hexham, again running with credit but not quite doing enough. There were subsequent winners around him though that day. And by that point it was his 6th hurdle start since December and he may well have needed a break.
He then got the break, returning in a hot C2 York Handicap on 25th August having had nearly three months off. I would hope that has put him spot on for this. Hughes returns to the saddle and this is a weak enough race. He races prominently and should be in the right place when Beyondtemptation fades. He has generally been consistent over hurdles and should give backers a run for their money. Oh and the blinkers have gone and the CP return. He has run his best jumps races in that headgear, and had none on in that York race.
So, he will do, on what looks another tricky day. I am happy to take the fav on.. he is unexposed and won a weak novice impressively the last day. He may win again here but this will be harder. The Nick Williams horse should run his race also, but again happy to take on. We have a pro in the plate also and that guile and nous could be worth a few pounds.
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On the flat…
Well hopefully one of the three in the 3.30 Haydock wins and I may have nibbles on each. They all do have questions though, esp the O’Meara horse (that PU was due to saddle slipping,so best just ignore that run) ..and I kind of threw a saver at him having backed the other two as you just know what may happen! Heaven’s Rock is unexposed and is having his second start after a break. There is every chance he comes on for that ok run LTO. He could have strengthened up and be a different horse from his nursery days. And it is far too early to say he won’t handle C4 level. The ground is an unknown, esp if it turns out there isn’t much good in the going at all. Not one to go mad on but I thought 7s was fair. Likewise with Parole, who in any case is an ES… not one for maximum confidence but no reason to be put off. I’ll trust the stats there. He is unexposed enough for his age, only 4 flat handicaps, winning 2. His last win was his first run in a TT at C5 level and there are valid excuses for the times he has raced in C4 (namely the trip being too far I think) He didn’t do much over hurdles the last day but if none the worse for that you couldn’t say he is finished progressing, and 8s was worth some interest I thought.
4.35 – they may both run well…but the pace concerns me. There is none really, bar the Johnston horse, on paper…and both of those are usually held up for late runs. It could get tactical and both stay very well. The Dascombe horse could be progressive and if keeping tabs on them could make 4s look decent. I have messed up my Geegeez symbols there, apols about that. In any case Azari is miles clear on GG speed figures. RK may well race him more handily and out of the two I would fancy him to run his race.
5.10- well I would be surprised if the qualifier won this, esp giving his liking for Good to Firm… but DIAMONDS A DANCING.. did catch my eye when looking at the race… you know I love a front runner and I thought he could get an uncontested lead. Gillard is good from the front, as we saw at Sedgefield for our 20/1 winner a couple of days back, for the same owner/trainer… McCain is in fine form, as is the horse- running consistently. 7s seems big, and is based on the idea that he may be handicapped to the hilt. He may be, and does need to improve again…but the return to further will help, as will his tactical position… I had a go at 7s to see if he could stay there all the way. Do with that as you please!
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That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.
3.Micro System Test Zone
Jockey CD
3.30 Hayd – Pumaflor (any odds)
4.Any general messages/updates etc
Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2017/18… Draft.
READ HERE>>>> (revised template + first 6 tracks) (oh and the obvious typo has been spotted/amended… no prizes if you spot it)
The video below is under 10 minutes… yep I couldn’t believe it either. It just walks through the above template etc if you are interested. And that’s about it. Any comments etc on the draft above are welcome- esp any micro angles you think I should include. I think it covers everything I want it to but any ideas welcome. It isn’t too different from last year, but some interesting changes/additions. I’ll get it finished asap. Oh and I will record a ‘horse race base video’ at some point, for those interestrd, going through one track and how I research the stats.
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RESULTS…. Flat + Jumps Advised Strategies link updated in Key. BFSP data will all be updated when I get on top of the spreadsheets.
15 Responses
Josh I tend to like a code switch from jumps to flat or vice verse. In the six weeks I have been a member your selections have thrown up two or three winners trainers mcxain and Dalglish spring to mind. Today master if finance attempts to join them.maybe a micro system for the future
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Hi Paul… hmm, yep, I can picture those winners now! Yes the flat to jumps, jumps to flat, switch isn’t something I have ever looked at before, systematically… I suspect the data may not be rich enough on the trainer front but you never know until you look! Master of Finance… i can only think that was used to get him fit, but we shall see. Gl
thanks for the “short video” josh entertaining as ever
Ha cheers.. i mean that really is a short as I can make them I think! And I started out thinking that would be no more than 5 minutes! One day we will produce something succinct, of quality, in what could be called a ‘short’ video- I don’t posses that skill as yet! 🙂 And I won’t compromise on content for brevity. Josh
Just a little edge on a difficult day Yatwee 4.00 Haydock is the newmarket nap of the day in the racing post. A little boost for the flat micro system bet
The words said are fit after a break and running against mostlying Penn listed runners
Yattwee nicely backed at 6/1 wish I was on at 14/1
GL Paul, yep I had a little nibble on him at around 8s I think, didn’t realise he was 14s! the micro is based on his ability to get them fit at home, and if he wants him to be, he will be. The money would suggest we can expect a decent run but who knows what the ground is actually riding like at Haydock!
I’m not sure he was ever 14s? I got on at 8/1 at around 7pm last night. From what I can see on Oddschecker, the highest price was about 9/1
Well sounds like 8s was the highest, i’ll ‘declare’ at that when he romps home 🙂
Yes shocker of a ride on Master of Finance. He needed the Cheltenham hill to be the run in to come from that far back!
Yea, my heart sank after 1 furlong – why they didn’t race him up there and ensure he hit the front a fair way from home- that’s how he has won. He is a monkey, not sure he likes a battle…which is why you can’t give him the choice. If there is nothing in front of you to battle against in closing stages, job done. As yet he has never pulled himself up in front I don’t think. A great shame, that was there for the taking you feel. Never mind.
What a surprise the Stewards did not look in to Brian Hughes disgusting ride,no doubt they backed the winner.
Years ago Dai had a runner at Ripon called Quite Victory and Geoff Baxter was down to ride,however 2 hours before the race he was jocked off,because certain things happen in the North,cannot remember the jockey who took over but he used to ride Triptich and she was 5 lengths clear entering the final furlong and sadly was caught on the line,at least we got a run.
After todays performance nothing has changed.
I wouldn’t be that strong, but that’s me. He wins many a race with that patient style of his, where he throws the kitchen sink at them late on etc. That is how he likes to ride. But I don’t like how they have ridden him there given the pace, and what he is like as a horse. If i owned him 1. i would have told them how to ride haha and 2. be a bit gutted post race…he was well backed to a point. One of those. Maybe he hoped they would fall in a hole at the front end. Winner was steady in market, not overly punted. One of those.
The horse is in my tracker for the next run.
I think they either have to lead or be much more prominent and take it up a fair way out, so he doesn’t see another rival when under pressure, and just gallops. We shall see. Not one to trust too much and you’d want a decent price.