Members Daily Post: 11/08/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Musselburgh

3.00-

Hellomoto (all hncps + 3yo+, + micro age) 13/2 UP 9/1

Adventureman (micro dist + going) 8/1 2nd 7/1

4.00- Great Fighter (micro runs) ES  H1 I3 9/2 2nd 

5.00- Golden Jeffrey (micro dist) H3 5/2

Brighton

2.40 –

Frantical (all hncps) H3 I3 G1 10/3

Ban Shoof (micro dist) 14 H3 I3 G3 4/1 WON 3.2/1> 2/1 (20p R4) 

3.40 – Pink Ribbon (all hncps) G1 20/1 UP

4.10 –

Jersey Breeze (3yo+, + micro age) ES H3 8/1 UP

Evanescent (3yo+) 16/1

Oeil De Tigre (3yo+) G3 14/1

Pour La Victoire (3yo+, + TJC) ES 25/1 2nd 16/1 

5.15 –

Essaka (3yo+) G3 I3 12/1

Whiteley (3yo+) ES I3 13/2

Newmarket

8.10 – Tatlisu (micro dist)  5/1

7.35 – Prying Pandora (micro age) ES 10/1

Haydock

8.20 –

Ayresome Angel (all hncps) I3 3/1

Shelneverwalkalone (all hncps) 14   12/1

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (NEW!)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> | C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

NEW! Main Stats Guides: Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

**

3.00 Muss – Hellomoto – 1 point win – 7/1 – UP 9/1*

Hmm.. market told the story there..maybe he is a horse that just flatters to deceive…they didn’t go as quick as I thought, given front 2 were the top 2 all the way… would need to watch again, couple of smacks, brief response,minor trouble,ran on for hands and heels and finished off race well enough. Will be interested NTO albeit can see that cliff on the horizon. 

Well yesterday went superbly well I thought!! (cough cough) My flat ‘tipping’ is arguably the only bit letting the whole blog down at the moment and maybe a timely reminder for why I like systematic approaches/big race stats|trends, especially on the Flat! But I will soldier on, a third win/place % isn’t bad and enough of those have gone very close. As well as the odd howler/missed horse. But, some work to do/improvement needed.

The only thing I got right was that High Draw was overpriced- I have got into the odd barney on the tweet machine with those who have a ‘winners is everything mindset’ (it’ isn’t- clearly we need to back winners every now and then but odds must be the driver) (and it took me 3/4 years to ‘get it’) and have no concept of a ‘value loser’… We backed High Draw at 7s. He went off at 4s.  Let’s say every horse you back is 4/1.. and it is sent off at 4/1. It implies a 20% probability of winning. 1 in 5. Every 5 bets , in theory, over time, you will break even. 4x losers, 1 x 4/1 winner, + stake back. 5 points bet, 5 points back.  BUT, if you back that 4/1 winner at 7/1, suddenly you have +3 points profit from those 5 bets. If every 7/1 shot I backed got sent off at 4s, over time my bank should only go one way. Now, it isn’t that easy of course. 2 of my picks yesterday drifted, 1 didn’t shorten by much, those three are still running. But you get my general point. I know most of you know all this, and in part I am writing it for myself as much as anything else. Trying to beat SP consistently is the only way to win in the long term. If you are backing a horse at the price it should be, and is sent off at, consistently, your bank will just be static, up, down, level. Repeat.

I dont really have a proper maths brain and such talk makes me uncomfortable but I think what I have said above is correct! And if not, i’ll stick to my history/politics and trainer behaviour!  Generally I  go on ‘feel’ with price, but the concept is front and centre in my head.  You must attempt to consistently beat SP. I also think there is less margin for error at the top of the market which is why i generally avoid the top end. But, let’s move on…

(did anyone back the forecast with the Dunlop horse, 7/1/.. as hinted at in the write up.. the one most likely to ‘swoop past, it may even be a 1-2’ ??)

Hellomoto… 

7s seems a bit generous here for this unexposed type who looks like he could have ideal conditions here. I will be unnerved if he is weak in the market- the only niggle is that 31 day break, but maybe he needs time between races/they have been waiting to find something suitable. 7s allowed the play. He is 0/3,1p in flat handicaps. His best run came at the start of the season  over 7f on GF in C6, where he met a bit of trouble but ran on well. His US breeding etc suggests he probably wants a road. As such soft the last twice could be a valid excuse. I was at Pontefract the last day he ran and it was softer than GS I think- rained a fair amount. I fancied him before all the rain and he didn’t really run much of a race. But he drops back in class here, gets a road, sticks to 8f, Eaves is back on and… Ryan is in decent form the last 14 days. In fact he is the only ‘in form’ trainer in the race, as denoted by the Geegeez indicators as per the key. The stats from the stats pack are also all very solid, a couple close to ES territory. I had to have a go given all that/his price. Clearly Adventureman now bounces back to life and makes all 🙂 There is a fair bit of pace on here for him to track and with any luck he isn’t held up too far back. There is a chance he is a bit of a monkey also – received reminders early in one race – but i’ll go with him. Pros outweighing the niggles, 7s allows some flexibility.

**

Of the rest…

Given the positives for Great Fighter (ES, strat 2, to start) 7/2 is probably fair enough,esp given lack of opposition. He looked ultra progressive in his two Muss runs before another poor run at York (that is 3 now I think) and is worth a go in this grade. The Dalgleish horse who is the only front runner would be a concern if he can get away- Dennis will need to wind this one up early enough as they turn for home, but even I may be tempted at 7/2- the poor horse, that’s the death knell for him.

Brighton is Brighton. That’s all I will say! 🙂

I will mention Shelneverwalkalone… and not because I am a Liverpool fan desperately hoping PC stays and we sign a couple more player…otherwise come Xmas I will be saying ‘always next year’ for yet another season. To the horse… well she is only having her 5th career start and second in a handicap. So, there should be more to come one day. That last run was in Ffos Las heavy and after a mini break. I don’t know if that is an excuse or not. But the yard is in form and she returns to better ground, and may come on for the run. Trainer and Jockey are 3/12,6p in all handicaps as well (turf+AW) and the trainer is 3/8,4p with all runners here. Very selective. She seems weak in the market and a few fancied ones. She does step up in class and may not be good enough. No ratings pointers etc. Not one to go mad on, if at all, but some BFSP change may be going her way….. because of the name! 🙂

*

Good Luck with any bets.

Josh

Oh..

NEWMARKET….

Various friends are off to the races for the evening and have asked for ‘tips’ – this can end in disaster albeit the last group who went I only gave them one horse, and that was a winner… one of the C Wall ES qualifiers. I think they lumped on and were rather happy.

Anyway, I will ‘go through the card’ and post up some thoughts.. if you are not going racing I would ignore them. I will post those in the comments below, at some point.. prob by 1pm latest.

*just a note on these CD Jockey angles (link in key above).. Steve over at the Betting School is keeping track of these on their members’ forum (I wrote original article for them/allow me to use for you also) and since the first selection post publication on 7th July.. I think they are…  15 bets / 5 wins / 10 w|p / +12 points (to early/morn odds, 1 point win) We shall see if they keep ticking along.