Members Daily Post: 09/08/17 (complete)

VIDEO! Section 1 + results update x1 + notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Brighton

2.50 –

(apols this is a selling handicap,which technically shouldn’t count, made an error there…these two will count in official results,and given Carroll’s form in these races at this three day meeting as per notes,that may be no bad thing…)

Par Three (3yo+, + micro TJC)  ES H3 I3 10/1 UP

Hallings Wish (micro dist) 14 H3 I1 6/1 UP

3.20 –

Cricklewood Green (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 6/1 UP

Admirable Art (3yo+) I3 10/1 UP

Pour La Victoire (micro TJC) ES I3 16/1 UP

4.20 –

Nouvelle Ere (3yo+, + micro TJC) ES 11/1 2nd 16/1 (oh damn i just assumed winner would fade given stam q, but SDS not to be denied!) 

Henry Did It (3yo+) 10/1 UP

4.50 –

Whiteley (3yo+, + micro age) ES I1 4/1  WON 4/1>7/2 

De Vegas Kid (3yo+, + micro TJC) ES H3 I3 7/1  2nd Nk 5/1 (agonising if like me you had a bit more on him, but i’ll take it) 

5.20 –

Silver Mist (all hncps) 22/1 UP 33/1

Suni Dancer (3yo+, + micro TJC) ES H3 G3 7/2 UP 5/1

 

Bath

2.00-

Lucky Clover (3yo+, + micro runs) ES H1 I1 G1 2/1 UP 

Blackadder (micro class) 66/1 UP

3.30 – Argenterie (3yo+)  7/1

5.00-

Go Amber Go (all hncps) ES 14/1

Showmethewayavrilo (3yo+) ES I3 10/1 UP 7/1 

 

Pontefract

2.10 – Bollin Ted (3yo+) I3 G3 13/8 UP

2.40 – Chief Justice (2YO) 7/2 2nd 4/1

3.40 – Icefall (3yo+) 11/2 UP

4.10 –

Sandras Secret (3yo+) 14  14/1 UP (will blame going!) 

See The Sun (3yo+, + micro runs) 15/2 UP (just bang out of form,one to leave until showing something,or headgear switch maybe) 

5.10 – Komander Kirkup (3yo+) 12/1

5.40 – Ventura Secret (3yo+) H3 G3  5/1 WON 2/1 (45p R4)

 

Yarmouth

5.15 – Il Primo Sole (2YO) 4/1

5.45 – The Cornish Barron (all hncps) I3 10/1

6.15 – Tayaar (all hncps) G3  33/1 UP

**

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: To follow ASAP

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

NEW! Main Stats Guides: Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

No ‘tips’ , but video to follow and some of the main points from that below.

 

VIDEO: … I have ‘whizzed’ through all runners, and what follows is as quick as I could make it I think! 🙂

 

 

 

Some general points covered. No ‘tips’ as such. In general I couldn’t find any reasons to be ‘put off’ any strategy qualifiers really, some look more interesting than others. It is poor low grade fare today so we shall see how they go. Given the stats below ALL of Carrol’s are prob worth a closer look/some interest maybe. And most of his may have been targeted at this meeting.

Henry Did It is lightly raced and there will be more to come at some point, wouldn’t be shocked if he went close.

Silver Mist.. I have backed for small stakes… lightly raced, second run after a break, doing couple things differently. She could be useless but from a basement mark the trainer may find a race one day. And at 20s+ I had a nibble. Not a confident one as she could just be devoid of ability- unlike Parole for example who in fairness had shown decent form before his extended break.

Argenterie – unexposed/handicap debut/returns off a break/massive drop in class… only question is the ground if it is proper soft. I trust the trainer may take her out but I have had a go at 7s. The ground unknown and fact she isn’t a double figure price has stopped me from ‘tipping’ but it is that ‘unexposed/could be more to come/doing something different’ profile which finds decent winners.

Anyway, I cover those in the video but if you don’t wish to watch it those are probably the main points.

 

**

**

A Carrol/Brighton….

Just a quick word on him this week… Brighton have a three day meeting and having had a quick look I think he targets it. I have isolated all of the previous 5 meetings since 2012, and with all runners he is… 10/35,17p, +43 SP, +52 BFSP. He was 6/11 in 2015 but the other years are still decent enough. Small numbers but his runners sent off 16/1 or bigger are 0/8,2p. Which means those sent off 14/1 or shorter are… 10/27,15p, +51, +60. He is 3/6,4p in selling handicaps, which are not covered by my stats packs.

So, something to keep an eye on. He is 0/25,4p in the last 14 days, but two of those have been in the last 4 days or so. Maybe he is just about to bloom for what appears to be his favourite week of the year. Time will tell. I thought you may find that useful, and gives some context to his numerous qualifiers above.

**

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD

3.20 Brigt – Zaeem (any odds) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

FLAT RESULTS UPDATE:

Flat updated to end July.

 

Analysis

General

To follow

 

A New Approach? 

 

A few weeks back our good friend Nick mentioned that he’d started tracking ‘treble rated’ horses and now I have updated the ratings pointers spreadsheet I am able to get a better grip on these. The last update was 6th June so there is now another 8 weeks of data. And it makes for interesting reading.

So, we are looking at horses that have 3 of the red symbols next to their name either a H1/H3, + I1/I3 + G1/G3   (Cricklewood Green and Lucky Clover would be real life examples from section 1 above) 

Those that are ‘treble rated’ but DO NOT include a Top Rated runner (so, one that is H3, I3, G3) since 4th May when Inform Ratings were used…

29 bets / 8 wins / 13 places (inc wins) / +9.5 points early|bog

Those that are ‘treble rated’ but DO Include a Top Rated Runner (some of these below would have been covered in strategy #1 + #2 as per Flat Strategies link in Key)…

57 bets / 18 wins / 30 places (inc wins) +17.4 points early|bog

 

That takes the total, for all ‘treble rated’ runners to….

86 bets / 26 wins / 43 places (inc wins) /  30% win SR / 50% win|place / +27 early|bog / +10 BFSP

 

That is a solid enough set of stats and some confidence could be taken with such runners. The win/place % look exciting enough and could provide another ‘way in’ for us all. If those stats can repeat every 86 bets, then we have another solid approach to compliment flat ES. Do with that as you please, any questions etc fire away. I’ll keep track of them in the strategies doc.

*

 

**

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Thanks Josh. I didn’t even bother looking at the cards yesterday so following your words of wisdom I took a closer look at Guishan ten mins before the start and decided everything was spot on (including the returning cheekpieces) so I had an extra £15 on. Better late than never.

    1. That was rather good fun to watch, and at 10/1! Yep it all clicked together, just shows when some horses get their conditions/when others may fall in a hole/and doing ‘a few things different’, that anything can happen. Last run was after a big break as well which I didn’t not properly until having another look. Anyway, job done. Not quite in maximum ES stake territory, but far from the minimum either, I’m not complaining with the return.

  2. anyone ever had this from BF before Unfortunately Martin the system is automated, it is possible that even at the SP there were not enough funds in the market to match your bet. so i never got paid out on Guishan just my money back, i didn’t know that you could tick take sp and not get matched .

  3. Martin thats really not on and its a salutary lesson to all of us who just think that we’ll get matched. Perhaps we need to check the liquidity in the market just before the off. Bloody typical that it’s a 10/1 winner rather than 2/1 but I suppose that might partly explain why there was insufficient money to match

  4. That’s impossible, I think you’ve had someone on Live Chat who doesn’t know what they’re talking about. BSP is calculated based on the ratio of backers / layers who choose the BSP option. So say someone places a BSP bet at the last minute. There can’t be a situation where their bet isn’t matched, what should happen is that the BSP shortens.

    1. So the only situation where there isn’t enough liquidity and your back bet goes unmatched, is when there are no layers at all.

      1. https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_theBasics.html

        Will there be unmatched SP bets if the money isn’t there?

        In theory, there could be unmatched SP bets. We don’t actually guarantee a match. But this would only happen if the price is 1.01 or 1000 – the two extremes of our SP. If 1.01 were the final SP, then some backers might be unmatched. If 1000 were the final SP, then some layers will be unmatched. However, we expect this to be very rare.

  5. Can anyone explain?
    I put Guishan on with CORAL last night Monday at 9/1 it won at 10/1 and they only paid out with the former yet they offer BOG price.
    Is there a reason they don’t pay 10/1?

    Mike

    1. That could only happen if they’ve restricted your account and they no longer offer BOG, or if you placed your bet using the ‘blue tick’ odds instead of the standard odds at the time.

  6. Cheers guys, was about to dump them if they had restricted me. That would be a first.
    Mind you I have made more money on the horses since I joined this site than any other.
    Thanks to all the info being passed around.

    Mike

  7. A couple of my tipsters also putting up Silver Mist, they seem to be of the opinion that the last 2 runs the horse wasn’t put into either of the races. Trainer has a 22% Win SR at Brighton and 56% Place strike rate over last 2 years, so at the odds I think it could be worth a play that they have been holding it back for this one.

    1. Yep, definitely worth a tickle at those odds.. just really could be anything and odd reason why she may not step up as per notes/vid. At 25s you can’t be too fussy and the pain of not having anything on versus a small losing wager is incomparable! GL

  8. Josh,

    can’t thank you enough for putting these videos together, as a newbie it gives me a great insite to your process and something I ( we all ) can learn from

    cheers

    Kevin

    1. Pleasure Kevin, glad you find them useful… I wouldn’t have been able to record them 5 years ago, maybe not even 3, but all about trying to progress and learn.. and when you eyes switch from the top end of the market to those priced 9/2+, 6/1+, a whole different world opens up for me – you can forgive horses, you can be wrong more, and you are far more likely to spot a horse at a bigger price than it should be… and asking the question ‘what are they doing differently’ has been a big positive influence I think. Still plenty to learn but we are doing ok! If you can get used to backing losers, and missing winners… the winners you do find will more than make up for it. Over time.
      I like doing them, makes me think as well- knowing people are watching does make you focus a bit more- albeit when rushing through selections like that I am bound to miss the odd thing. But, with those general principles as above it doesn’t matter sometimes. I trust the starting points, and the basis for our success.
      An exciting afternoon ahead hopefully, and in any case, Guishan has paid for it 🙂
      GL
      Josh

  9. Hi Josh,
    took 3 in a patent yesterday to small stakes,poor racing, Guishan ES, Geoff Potts and Peach Melba 3 1/2
    points stake 126 points profit!
    Not too long a member but enjoying it immensely can’t get my head round the number of qualifiers some days but I’m adapting my approach.
    Particularly like your work on the”big” meetings and the videos.
    Keep up the good work

    1. Hi Fergus,

      Blimey.. well if you are winning +126 points from 3.5 point outlay then I hope you are enjoying the experience haha! Top work, well done. I bet that was a thrill seeing it come in, and so easily!

      Yep.. no. quals can be a headache… which in part is reason for the advised strategies… can always just home in on those, or one or two of them etc, esp ES. Then if you have time to look through the others then great, and form an opinion, work out what to do etc. If a horse hits my stats packs (links in key) it qualifies and gets posted… it is a tricky balance… giving enough choice, but not too much. I could be stricter on criteria for when I include a stat and am pondering the next winter jumps guide. I maybe wouldn’t mind a bit more quality over quantity.

      Pleased to hear you enjoy the big meetings / videos.. all in the aim of entertainment etc, and to give you choice- which is where this is a bit different from much else out there.
      I’ll try my best,
      Cheers
      Josh

  10. de vegas kid looks very well handicapped for tony carroll and i notice it has run well the last two times when wearing cheekpieces.This could be front run in the headgear to see if it lasts home paul

    1. I never do the sodding forecast I wouldn’t worry.. yep, I’d have preferred that the other way round as I had a bit more on the bigger one, but we’ll take it. He was on insider rail, switched very wide, around the houses, back inside etc. SDS has won that again, always in the right spot..shame second didn’t get a more prominent position early. On we go…

    1. yep, a couple have run their races, 7s>5s. 11s>16s (32 BFSP I think).. enough there not to be treating with caution anyway, about to start looking through tomorrow’s cards etc.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.