Free Daily Post: 08/08/17 (complete)

The main chunks from Today’s Members’ post, inc a video…

Not much happening today so I have repeated a chunk from the Members’ Post…

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The link below summarises the ‘advised’ strategies for the content below.

Another good week for the flat Elite Squad ES (+7, +6.5) taking the total in 46 days to…

108 bets / 24 wins / 48 w|p / 22% w sr / 44% w|p sr / +55.2 points / +41 BFSP

 

(it’s great fun for small stakes, and a solid foundation to attack all the other content… you can give the Club a try HERE>>> )

 

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  

 

Qualifiers against my trainer stats packs…

 

FLAT

Leicester

2.30 – Geoff Potts (all hncps) I3 G3 10/3

4.30 –

Bahamian Bird (all hncps+ micro class) 11/2

Peach Melba (micro distance) H3 I1 G3  7/2 

Catterick

None.

Nottingham 

6.35 –

Magical Dreamer (all hncps) 14   11/2

Tilly Trotter (all hncps) 16/1

Guishan (micro class) ES I1 G3  8/1

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Notes… my subjective thoughts on the above…

Weather… apparently is has rained heavy all evening at Notts/Leicester and continues to come down hard this morning, and is set in. Both tracks ‘could’ be on the heavy side come racing and should certainly be ‘proper’ soft.

That makes some of the video below irrelevant, esp Leicester as I did not set the  going to soft-heavy… If I had… then actually you’d fancy Peach Melba in the 4.30, ahead of the Fahey horse. Only two horses have won on soft/proven on it, and he is one of them. 1/3,2p on soft.. no horses in the race have run on heavy. Bahamian Bird has raced on soft once and not placed- more an unknown. As yet to prove she can’t handle it but it is a major question. I was on the fence with both of those in the video, but the ground would make me favour Johnston’s I think. He’s a strategy 2 and test Strat 5 qual anyway, with any luck one of them wins.

Soft/Heavy is a complete unknown for Geoff Potts – still the money comes. Seems short to my eyes but worth a look, touch on him in the vid also. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran well, as market suggests. It is a weak race and Fahey may have sparked him up. But to my eyes a few too many questions at that price, esp now with the rain coming. He may relish it of course.

6.35…

Guishan is an ES qual and I have had a bit on. I haven’t gone mad as i suspect she may just be out of form…but she is doing a few things different- dropping in class, headgear on, mark falling. My head says one of the younger/progressive horses will take this, probably Hannon’s, but I won’t be scared off and not have a go.

Tittly Trotter- I wouldn’t be confident enough to ‘tip’ one point on her, and when there is another qual in a race who is also an ES, that spells danger. But she is unexposed, 3rd start after a mid season break, third start for the trainer. Just a bit of an unknown quantity. Again she just looks out of form and there is a stamina niggle, which will be more of an issue in this ground. She has never raced on soft/heavy. So, many questions. But it is only her fourth handicap and you wouldn’t fall of your seat if she out-ran her odds. You’d be mildly surprised, but at 16s, I had a small wager. BFSP is prob a wise place to  play- I can’t see her being backed given the oppo. The market can mean sod all with Carroll’s horses.

Magical Dreamer is un-raced on soft/heavy, and for me that is now enough to have doubts at that price. She is a bit moody/swishes the tail, and has a few more questions than other market principles. But she is unexposed. I can survive if she beats me un-backed, which she may do.  I don’t want a repeat of Parole again anytime soon!

That’s all for today.

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Video: No Parole For You Young Man….

Well, it’s easy for me to record a video after a good day. Now you get one after a poor day, and one horse in particular…strap yourselves in… (oh and a look ahead to Tuesday) First bit looks at Parole, what went wrong, what to do differently next time etc, and the odd other random musing, as always 🙂 (it will fly by, or watch it in chunks, but hopefully you take something away from it…) (first 20 mins is a look back/educational/shaking of my head in disgust, latter half looks at today’s horses above) 

 

 

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That’s all for today. GL with any bets. Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. took the bike, a 1977 honda cb750 supersport, for a run to Ripon yesterday even though it’s only 45 miles away i had never been before , nice racecourse with a relaxed atmosphere all in all a very pleasant day out even managed a couple of winners and a place and made a small betting profit which covered my entrance and coffee. to round it all off got home to find i had got 22.0 bfsp on Parole , sorry Josh 🙂

  2. Can certainly confirm weather issues at Leicester and Nottingham as accurate, it has rained hard since around 5am and no sign of letting up. I can’t imagine it will be anything other than soft/heavy at Leicester and Heavy at Nottingham.

  3. 820 Chelmsford Priors brook profiles well for the race. Bit more exposed than some in the race but on breeding cd will suit. We won lto on the flat which is a positive. Trainer does ok here in the class and at this trip. Whilst i dont form a tissue i have a idea of where i think the odds should be and i thought this one was a 5/1 shot so 7/1 and bigger on the machine ill be on w/p in a tight little race as ill be very suprised if we dont go off shorter and around the 5/1.

  4. just one for me today Lady Joanna Vassa in the Catt 2-45 backed her lto when beaten neck over 5f on heavy , 9-2 skybet and a bit better on BF exchange, just feel this could be her day to get her nose in front won’t be lumping on but a fair sized bet.

      1. hard luck if she stayed straight she would have won.
        High draw does seem to have a big edge in the sprints so may be redemption in the 3.45

  5. Just LOVED you video today – many thanks for your candour. Let me make you feel better – you missed a 16/1 winner (so did I) but my “System to amuse” threw up LAWLESS SECRET @ 80/1 (only qualifier on the day) and I was “too busy” to put a couple of quid on it!! Don’t want to know what BFSP was!

    1. Thanks Richard, I like to think candour is one of my better traits! 🙂 urgh… yep that is painful, I definitely wouldn’t go anywhere near checking BFSP. No doubt a couple hundred that got away. Always painful, but the only thing we can do now is look forward to the next one, and try and not do the same again (well, not repeat our errors too many times, I’d be kidding myself if I thought I won’t miss another Parole with similar profile, but will try not too!)

    2. I watched the video and you seem keen to become a Catholic! Remember as long as you repent before you die you can get into heaven. I can say this as was brought up a Catholic and have that up my sleeve for the future. I wonder if they have betting and casinos?
      Perhaps you should give up drinking and avoid enjoying yourself in Ibiza? That would focus the mind and the Holy Father would approve. Enjoy being 28 when it comes. 58 is not as good as 28 and I cannot whang it in Ibiza anymore.

      1. ‘temporarily’ became a Catholic (and a very orthodox/extreme one at that) for filming/entertainment purposes only haha. I don’t think there much chance of me giving up drink, or indeed not going to Ibiza! 🙂 Looking forward to it.

  6. Cannot see much of interest this afternoon. At Chelmsford this evening I will go with La Rav, 6.50, who was pulled out of a race at Goodwood last week and this looks a lot easier; Estrella Eria, 8.20 and Singing sands, 8.50.

    Good luck.

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