Members Daily Post: 08/08/17 (complete)

VIDEO! section 1, Flat strategies update

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Leicester

2.30 – Geoff Potts (all hncps) I3 G3 10/3 WON 10/3>5/2 

4.30 –

Bahamian Bird (all hncps+ micro class) 11/2 UP

Peach Melba (micro distance) H3 I1 G3  7/2  WON 13/8 (25p R4) 

 

Catterick

None.

 

Nottingham 

6.35 –

Magical Dreamer (all hncps) 14   11/2 2nd 9/2 

Tilly Trotter (all hncps) 16/1

Guishan (micro class) ES I1 G3  8/1 WON 10/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: To follow ASAP

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

NEW! Main Stats Guides: Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

None.

Weather… apparently is has rained heavy all evening at Notts/Leicester and continues to come down hard this morning, and is set in. Both tracks ‘could’ be on the heavy side come racing and should certainly be ‘proper’ soft.

That makes some of the video below irrelevant, esp Leicester as I did not set the  going to soft-heavy… If I had… then actually you’s fancy Peach Melba in the 4.30, ahead of the Fahey horse. Only two horses have won on soft/proven on it, and he is one of them. 1/3,2p on soft.. no horses in the race have run on heavy. Bahamian Bird has raced on soft once and not placed- more an unknown. As yet to prove she can’t handle it but it is a major question. I was on the fence with both of those in the video, but the ground would make me favour Johnston’s I think. He’s a strategy 2 and test Strat 5 qual anyway, with any luck one of them wins.

Soft/Heavy is a complete unknown for Geoff Potts – still the money comes. Seems short to my eyes but worth a look, touch on him in the vid also. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran well, as market suggests. It is a weak race and Fahey may have sparked him up. But to my eyes a few too many questions at that price, esp now with the rain coming. He may relish it of course.

6.35…

Guishan is an ES qual and I have had a bit on. I haven’t gone mad as i suspect she may just be out of form…but she is doing a few things differentl- dropping in class, headgear on, mark falling. My head says one of the younger/progressive horses will take this, probably Hannon’s, but I won’t be scared off and not have a go.

Tittly Trotter- I wouldn’t be confident enough to ‘tip’ one point on her, and when there is another qual in a race who is also an ES, that spells danger. But she is unexposed, 3rd start after a mid season break, third start for the trainer. Just a bit of an unknown quantity. Again she just looks out of form and there is a stamina niggle, which will be more of an issue in this ground. She has never raced on soft/heavy. So, many questions. But it is only her fourth handicap and you wouldn’t fall of your seat if she out-ran her odds. You’d be mildly surprised, but at 16s, I had a small wager. BFSP is prob a wise place to  play- I can’t see her being backed given the oppo. The market can mean sod all with Carroll’s horses.

Magical Dreamer is un-raced on soft/heavy, and for me that is now enough to have doubts at that price. She is a bit moody/swishes the tail, and has a few more questions than other market principles. But she is unexposed. I can survive if she beats me un-backed, which she may do.  I don’t want a repeat of Parole again anytime soon!

That’s all for today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

CD Jockeys

4.30 Leic – Bahamian Bird (any odds) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Advised Flat Strategies link in Key has been updated, with last week’s results. Another good week for the flat Elite Squad (+7, +6.5) taking the total in 46 days to…

108 bets / 24 wins / 48 w|p / 22% w sr / 44% w|p sr / +55.2 points / +41 BFSP

Madness really- a 51% ROI.  I don’t like to be a pessimist (i’m generally very optimistic, glass half full) but as yet we have not had a poor run…not sure if we have had 5/6 losers in a row, let alone 15-30… and that will happen at some point, it just will- it’s the maths linked to winning strike rates of 22%.  (a win strike rate of 20% would indicate that the longest expected losing run every 1000 bets would be 31)

With any luck that won’t be anytime soon and I keep warning it might!  But I like to keep our feet on the ground and all I’m saying is don’t remortgage and start lumping on/taking yourself out of your comfort zone. Albeit £2.50 per point has paid for 1 years subs, in 46 days. And left £10 left for a nice bottle of Malbec! (Argentinian, not French..) 🙂 This game usually has a way of reminding us that it isn’t this easy and if you get greedy it gives you one almighty slap in the face. Slow, low and steady would be my advice.  Of course, if you are building up a decent ‘Flat ES’ bank, and are playing with profits, then even better. Just ensure you are happy to sustain a losing run of 20 or so at whatever level you are betting.  (or that 31 figure above if ultra cautious)

**

Video: No Parole For You Young Man….

Well, it’s easy for me to record a video after a good day. Now you get one after a poor day, and one horse in particular…strap yourselves in… (oh and a look ahead to today) First bit looks at Parole, what went wrong, what to do differently next time etc, and the odd other random musing, as always 🙂 (it will fly by, or watch it in chunks, but hopefully you take something away from it…)

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. Morning Josh,

    Well at least you got the name sorted for when you eventually get around to getting a RTP horse since Opus Dei seems far too appropriate not to be used.

    I personally feel if we were all at our 100% best mentally all the time all the bookies would be broke. But we’re human and we all make mistakes and to stay in this game we move on even if I am currently reeling from dropping £900 at the weekend after making £1200 through the first five days of the week (on the odd occasion when everyone has a terrible time in your portfolio it properly hurts-my only 3 winners of the weekend were from here). Just a case of picking yourself back up and learning from your errors.

    Regards
    Nick

    1. Morning Nick,
      Urgh, that doesn’t sound pleasant.. but then again, I suspect the majority of punters out there wouldn’t mind a +£300 week, maybe it was a levelling out of previous days – but I can feel the frustration. I’ve had my best run since Festival week, the last 4/5 weeks have been superb- it is due to level off at some point. And Festival week was my best mini spell for a little while, in fact one of my best weeks on the points front.
      Still not sure what state of mind I was in to just move past him so quickly. Will try not to repeat that anytime soon.
      Yep, at some point when we syndicate a horse, which we will one day, that is a very apt name. Noted.
      GL today,
      Josh

      1. Just a thought Josh partly following what Martin said but given your concern is with the bigger priced runners why not start when you’re going through the qualifiers start with anything 10/1+, than move to 6/1-9/1 before looking at the shorties. Might mean you’re less likely to miss a big one next time.

        1. Yep I usually do try and focus on the bigger priced ones, usually having a flick through with IE in racecard order but with eyes fixed on 6/1+ … I just haven’t followed my normal process… I didn’t click on him as a horse in either HRB or Geegeez- if I had, the wheels would have been set in motion given he was 1/4 on flat. I have just used the drop down, looked at last two finishing positions, price, and moved on. Still can’t quite believe I did that- I didn’t even look at him properly to then decide not to back him. Oh well. I’ll try not to do that again anytime soon.

    2. i was in the same place last week Nick. After a healthy profit during the week I gave half of it back on Saturday with the bets I had running as if they had their back legs tied together. I am thinking to reducing bet size on a Saturday as it seems a more random day to me? I dont really get involved in the big handicaps unless at a big price. Interested in others thoughts really?

      1. Martin

        I’ve felt the same about Saturdays for a long time, always been a tough betting day for me. Personally i try too keep to 15/20 bets max. I’d rather miss a winner then be betting 75+ points in one day.

        Leigh

      2. Hmmm… depends on your approach I suppose – if you are doing the same thing/same approach, I can’ t see a logical reason to draw stumps on a Saturday… the quantity of racing may be linked? In the sense that if you are far more busy, simply due to the no. of runners, what would normally be spread out Mon-Thursday say, all happens in one afternoon.
        In general it is more competitive I think- bigger fields leads to more evenly run races, at a proper gallop- which could see many horses in a better light, esp if been running in mid week races where not run to suit- I think there is some logic there, as to why ‘form’ reading may be trickier, and horses seemingly running better from nowhere. Dawdling in a 7 runner race is very different to 14 runners, with 3 front runners etc. But, again, that depends on your approach. With say section 1 above, there is no logic not to follow the content in your normal way, not that I can think off. The day you pull back is the day a load of biggies go in!
        And, if you took the big race stats/shortlists as an example…bar the dip on Sat, and there will be a few more- they’d been having a great time.
        many owners want runners on Saturdays also, as they can usually get to the track- so some logic that more horses may be targeted to run well/aimed at something, which further complicates things.
        Anyway, they are just some musings, some of it nonsense no doubt!
        Josh

        1. Josh

          I think you hit the nail on the head with the problem being the shear number of runners your systems will throw up on a Saturday. Its easy to look back on a Saturday evening and see your loses and question the method, but i agree if you have a system then you have to stick with it no matter how many bets you have to make otherwise your results aren’t an accurate representation of the system. Personally i try to filter out around 20 i like the most otherwise i could find a reason to back pretty much an horse in any race

          Leigh

      3. I don’t think Saturday’s are necessarily the way to do it. During the jumps season I tend to do well(famous last words I know). Not last year but the one before I had about nine profitable Saturdays running. Part of it was the uncertain weather. I didn’t tip at Newmarket but they aren’t expecting any but got loads and Thirsk and Hamilton got less than expected so maybe I should have stayed clear of my picks at either. Saigon City was fancied by quite a few tipsters out there but ran no race. I left the consolation race alone fearing a lack of pace but ironically that’s what happened in the main race (is it just me or has that been repeatedly the case this season). My 17:20 pick was the most frustrating since I identified the right form race but the horse which was 3 lengths behind my pick before winning at Chester and was 3lbs worse off managed to get a lead from stall 16 and won at 25/1! (mine started at 33/1 and was backed into 16/1).

        I stay clear of meetings where it’s good/firm and it’s meant to rain since you don’t know how much the going will change but might stay clear of soft when no rain. Something to ponder there.

  2. Brilliant video Josh, your self flagellation really made me smile. I didn’t even look at Parole either! But Tilly Trotter/Guishan are both interesting definitely. Keep the videos coming!
    Cheers and good luck today all
    Doug

    1. ha cheers Doug, I try and entertain, in my own special way 🙂 Yep, hopefully they go ok..my head says not but there is enough there at the prices etc to have a go I feel. And when the ground is testing, as it will be, strange things can happen. Guishan’s toughness may see her run well, IF she can run her race.
      Josh

  3. josh this does look a day to be careful peach melba does look solid in 4.30 leicester. his ast run nwas over 7 furlongs on soft where he put up his best racing post rating to date.pj macdonald has 24% strike rate in the saddle at the track. slight doubt going up in class but filly in form on the ground has to swing it. i think in has to be a bet paul

    1. yep, a few NRs now, price looking skinnier, 7/2 was prob ok but you all know my issues at that end! Albeit some supporting ratings pointers to help… highly likely they try and make all and play catch me if you can. Given proven liking for conditions I expect her to stay there. Fahey horse may relish ground but given held up usually can’t think smaller field will help. Not a day to go mad on.. but the heavier the better at Notts I think- at least in terms of blunting/tiring out the younger horses, albeit may not make a difference.

    2. Paul
      He’s just rode the 3.30 winner. One of my go to books is Words from the wise. Fenman advocates following a jockey or trainer in after a winner. 23mm of rain since this morning is sorting the ground dependant out.
      David

  4. That’s another one in for the triple raters. Personally am now up 30 pts in the past 5 weeks from the triple rated and double top rated so they’re looking quite nice. (this is based on the prices from the day before and not including anything which is below 3/1) I don’t keep exact track of numbers but that’s from a fairly small number of bets also I think.

    1. Just did a quick look and I could be off by one or two (and there may have been some which started below 3/1 the night before but drifted like Character Onesie) but I count 34 bets which is a hell of a strike rate.

      1. You’ll be pleased to hear I have just updated both spreadsheets up to end of July, and will update in tomorrow’s post.. I have had a good look at treble rated (both with and without a top rated included) and they are looking good! 🙂

        1. It makes sense that should. Obviously all three rating systems use different methods to obtain their ratings but the fact that a horse is well thought by three different methods to go with the fact that it matches conditions which are historically favourable, it makes sense that they are doing well. Hopefully the same will occur for the jumps once we have access to all three ratings.

  5. stats doing ok today josh, i myself tend to be selective peach melba making it a good day. This is my 5th day since joining and i feel your information is pretty good. For me its about being selective and trying not to lose.

    1. I like selectivity, as a general rule.. with the odd set and forget system, albeit you can be selective with those, esp confidence vs staking.. seems like you have/are getting the hang of things. The stats are solid, they are good starting points.

      Yep not losing is important for enjoyment, I get that and agree. Albeit if we can win also over time it helps! But, you have to be patient.

      My stats packs are different.. in sense of how they split by 3yo+ and 4yo+, and all. And how they strip out nursery handicaps etc. Many trainer handicap stats are generalised, the whole lot thrown in. Well, you can flick through the guides/links above and see the template. The micros are also different/unique, and hard to find elsewhere, with plenty of logic behind most.

      I do need to ponder whether to be a bit stricter with criteria.. in terms of # of bets, wins etc. Just starting to ponder next seasons winter jumps and always plenty to think about. The content finds winners, and enough of them. Then just about sorting the wheat from the chaff, backing enough, and keeping the losers down! (i sound like a broken record I know)

      Josh

    1. I’ll explain in tomorrow’s post…it isn’t anywhere yet! But in essence we are talking about a horse that has all three red symbols next to their name.. one each from H1/3, I1/3, G1/3 … any mix of the three, but having all three.

  6. Guishan 10/1 wins by 6 lengths and the forecast to boot. Incredible run the ES are on! Long may it last.
    Well done Josh.

    1. Guishan did go in well for ES. Tilly Trotter was a non runner but likely would not have been able to cope with the winner. 10/1 is always nice. I was on Peach Melba at 2/1 and have also backed Johnston’s one in the 7.35, White Tower, at 14/1.

  7. Well done Josh! I expect to see a self congratulation video tomorrow not one of self flagellation! #opusdei

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