Free Daily Post: 07/08/17 (complete)

a horse of interest…

No systems/angles.

 

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Horse of Interest…

6.00 Carlisle… Kenny The Captain… I will just mention this one from the members page.. as I was musing he has been backed, 5/1, 9/2 looked fair… notes as below…

Finally… Kenny The Captain… probably the most interesting of the lot to my eyes… he ticks all race  conditions, 2/5,5p over CD, 4/8,7p in C5, is 5lb below his last winning mark, the trainer is flying, he is in form and been running well in C4s, drops to C5 here… and.. I think they may try and make all. He is drawn against that rail and there are no front runners in this. He can make all and they should try. He is being well punted and as I started musing I thought 5/1, 9/2 was fair enough and had a little go given the above. Not a race type to go mad on, given the jockey situation, but young Easterby is decent enough. 7/2 may be getting on the short side, we shall see. 

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That’s the lot for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. 3.45 Ripon

    20 winners – 214 runners.
    Runs at <6f, 0 : 1/40
    Handicap places <3 : 1/57
    Class 3 or higher places, 13k : 1/32

    Sir Billy Wright (6/1) seems to be the only one to tick every single box.

    🙂

    1. Oops looks like I’ve made a right pig’s ear of copying and posting above! It should read:

      20 winners – 214 runners.

      Shorter runs 0:1/40
      Handicap places <3 1/57
      Class 3 or higher places 13k : 1/32.

  2. 6.45 Windsor

    14 winners – 156 runners

    NOT aged 3-4: 2/87
    Highest class win , class 3: 1/41
    Last run, 1 class higher: 1/41

    Handytalk (5/1), Bahamian Dollar (8/1) and King Of Spin (11/1) tick all the boxes.

    🙂

  3. a shame about the demise of BetTurtle i found it a very handy bit of kit, i did try the free trial of Geegeez gold but just didn’t have the time to use it to it’s full potential at least not enough to justify the subs, when my circumstances change will definitely give it another look in the meantime is there any other free sites worth looking at?

    1. Totally agree about Bet Turtle. I had a number of long e-mail conversations with Kenny at BT and shared some ideas and thoughts over many months. He is as good an IT bloke as I have ever come across. He has a long background in Financial Services and that is where he has returned as Bet Turtle was a pet project that he had chucked a lot of money in to. A great shame it has had to close but I think in terms of finances, quality of life and sanity, a wise choice for him. I hope he and the concept won’t be totally lost to us.

      There are few if any “free sites” that match it but those that do charge are no expensive and the 3 best are regularly referenced on here being GGGold / HRB and Inform.

      I have foind a nice little one quite by chance on Twitter and when I enquired if there was a cost was told no it is free (at this point) might be worth anyone interested having a look at it http://sportingstatistics.com/

      1. On Geegeez Gold…

        You can register as a free user and get access, every day, to certain elements of the main package for free, inc Stat of the Day on Mondays, and then plenty of the tools etc – i think they highlight 3/4 races per day you can access with the racecards, and certain stats reports each day. And they may always be an interesting starting point for any bets.

        Josh

    2. http://patternform.co.uk/ is free and you might have fun playing around with that. Rating the races is free every friday. Proform and time form give away a free race a day. As said Geegeez gives different bits away free daily. I strongly reccomend Horse race base. Cheap as chips, not very easy on the eye but you can build the odd system and it pays for itself plus the amount of stats you can dig up is endless and there is a free trial.
      HRB takes some getting used to but when you do you wont look back.

  4. Question for Hugh,
    Are horses who run in the big super sprints vulnerable in there next few races.

    They seem really hard races and I was wondering if the stats backed up my
    thoughts that they can often run below form Next time out.

    The Horse that got me thinking was Mother of dragons
    who ran in the super sprint and then run a shocker
    driffing from 6/4 to 11/4, on form she had a massive chance but was tailed off.

    Lady Anjorica fits that profile, easily the form horse but run off her feet in the super sprint
    what is your opinion Hugh

    1. Lady A ran like a drain so may be worth taking on others from the super sprint
      when they are fancied
      The winner of the super sprint won by a long way
      so it hints too me that the others are starting to feel their exertions
      and could start running badly.

      I have always thought that horses could bomb next time if they
      have to run all out to the line over the last 4 furlong in a head to head battle to the line

      if you see an odds on favourite in a race whos last race
      was an all out battle for 4furlongs or more
      even if close home it goes on to win by a fair way
      that tough race could bottom it for it next run
      if its out again soon then it may be worth taking on
      my ideal scenario is when a horse gets in a sustained battle
      from at least 4f out even if it draws away in the last 100yards
      and then is dropped in trip.

      eg horse wins a 2m4f hurdle by 4 lengths after a real head to head in the last 5f
      gradually drawing away at the finish and then is dropped to 2 miles.

      The faster pace of the two mile race can often see the stamina horse
      going a yard to fast and being beaten by a speedier horse.

      I do not get the same amount of time to review races but if you see
      a horse in a non handicap winning in this manner please let me know and I will review the run
      Pete

  5. Hi Josh,

    Seem to be having a problem logging on to the members area…… You couldn’t drop me an email with the login details could you please.

    Thanks

  6. 345 avon breeze is overpriced @13 win and 3.65 place. Consistent sort with a gd claimer on board. Profiled the race and the neg is ran very recent but a trainer knows the horse must be sound to be out agin so quickly. Also horses winning C 2 b4 dont do so well but less than 5 expected winners. Decent sort who goes well for the claimer who in turn has a decent record for the trainer. Should be around a 8/1 shot in my eyes so worth a interest.

    1. That deserves a wallop! Well done. Super picking. I think she is off to the breeding sheds soon..well she is pregnant and don’t think allowed to race much longer- nice was to go out. Super stuff.

    2. I did look at her because I backed her last time out. but I let my head rule my gut. and didn’t have a go in the race.
      well done to everyone who had a nibble.

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