Members Daily Post: 07/08/17 (complete)

section 1 + notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Salisbury

2.30 – Archie McKellar (2YO) 9/2 3rd

5.00- Lightening Dance (3yo+) I1 7/2 UP

 

Ripon

3.15 – Coillte Cailin (micro going)  (morning addition after overnight rain) ESI1 12/1 UP

3.45 – Red Pike (all hncps, + micro dist) 8/1 UP

4.15 –

Breakwater Bay (micro class) ES 9/1 UP (almost PU I think, something amiss, line through that…albeit until he pushed the button it was an awful ride- drawn widest you go forward,or you go back,take your medicine and ride for luck- did neither and was stuck 4 wide all way into straight and even if something wasn’t amiss was never going to get home) 

Royal Reserve (micro age+ going) ES H1 I1 7/4 UP 11/4

 

Windsor

5.45 – Funky Footsteps (3yo+) I3 G1 5/2 2nd 7/2 (SH) 

6.45 –

King of Spin (all hncps) 11/1 UP

Ice Age (3yo+) H3 I3 G3 5/1 WON 5/1> 10/3

7.45 –

Lets Be Happy (all hncps) H3 11/2  3rd 

Whipcrackaway (3yo+) 10/1 UP

8.15 –

John Joiner (3yo+) 6/1 UP

Zipedeedodah (micro TJC) H1 I1 7/2 UP

 

Carlisle

6.00- Kenny The Captain (micro age) H3 I1 5/1 UP 15/8 

7.00- Parole (micro age) 14/1 WON 16/1 

7.30 – Forever A Lady (micro class + dist) ES 8/1 UP

8.00- Stormin Tom (micro age) H3 I3  5/2 UP 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: To follow ASAP

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

NEW! Main Stats Guides: Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

No ‘tips’ as nothing hitting my criteria but some ‘notes’ below to do with as you please…

ES Quals… famous last words but at the prices Breakwater Bay looks most interesting at 9s to me- drops back in class, only aged 3 – certainly no reason not to get involved, and may appreciated the bigger field/likely stronger pace here… as will the other one in here but I get nauseous with most horses under 9/2 – 6/1, and certainly any flat ES qual shorter than 7/2.  But, that’s just me. He will get the strong pace he needs here and will prefer this trip. Good to Soft a slight question and given running style will need plenty of luck but having said all that he probably now hoses up like a 4/5 shot! He can beat me at that price, I forget when the last shorty won that I cursed not being on. Probably 3/4 years ago when I realised that it’s too hard for my brain to make the game pay at that end of the market. And nowhere near as fun.

Forever A Lady – a couple of niggles but given the type of race, where jockeyship can make a massive difference, i’ll be having something on at that price. A slight stamina niggle, and handciap mark, but she should be up there, either leading or in second, and has run well enough over 8f not to be too dismissive. Collte Cailin – i thought looked up against it, but at that price I’ll probably throw something at her- now 0/12 on turf, GS a concern, as is her recent form.. my head says no, but I know ES finds the odd winner that leaves me head-scratching, and  the point of such a systematic approach is not to torture yourself mentally- but I do like taking a view, esp staking size, and that can be even more satisfying when you get it right etc.

Some shorter priced ones…

Lightening Dance is unexposed and… wait for it… yep, doing something different! Takes a step up in trip here by 2f which may make a difference. However, the trainer is 1/27,8p with horses making their second start in a handicap, and that is the kind of stat that puts me off horses in the 7/2, 4/1 range. Were he 6s/8s+, i’d probably have a go given that profile. While the unexposed/doing something different bit is always a positive in my eyes- there is of course the risk that he won’t stay- and that is another reason why I would personally like a bigger price, but hopefully he runs well…

Of more interest, for those of you whose shorter priced judgement is better than mine…

Funky Footsteps – well he is unexposed and takes a step up in distance also, for a trainer whose record is decent enough when moving them in trip. 3/18,8 places. This one has been running as if this distance could unlock plenty more. There isn’t loads of pace on in her either and I wonder if they may try and make all. Top rated on GG may increase any confidence also. I would like to think he will go close here.

Finally… Kenny The Captain… probably the most interesting of the lot to my eyes… he ticks all race  conditions,2/5,5p over CD, 4/8,7p in C5 is 5lb below his last winning mark, the trainer is flying, he is in form and been running well in C4s, drops to C5 here… and.. I think they may try and make all. He is drawn against that rail and there are no front runners in this. He can make all and they should try. He is being well punted and as I started musing I thought 5/1, 9/2 was fair enough and had a little go given the above. Not a race type to go mad on, given the jockey situation, but young Easterby is decent enough. 7/2 may be getting on the short side, we shall see.

It’s highly likely that the only winners today, if there are any, haven’t been mentioned! That would be typical, but that’s my take having had a flick through.

That will be all for today. GL with any bets. And never be put off by anything that I say, if you like them! If you would be annoyed at Royal Reserve, as an ES, dotting up at 15/8, you know what to do. 🙂

**

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing today. I will update the Flat advises strategies for the week asap, as well as the jumps advised strategies doc.

 

 

**

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    Just a quick note on Ripon….. it’s pissing down just a few miles away and looks like it won’t be letting up any time soon. Doesn’t stop the bloody ice-cream vans though. Anyway the 3.15 has Coiltte Cailin running which quals if gd/sft and as ES

    Mike

    1. Hi Mike, Yep I’ve got a note down for that. I take going off HRB and is good and didn’t bother adding him yet.. but will confirm in moring when completing post but if GS will add him in. Always tricky when rain about. Could well be soft or stay as it is. We shall see! Thanks.

      1. Decided to stay here tonight instead of getting drenched riding home so if you’re there tomorrow and you see an old goat biker being bollocked by a sexy leather clad chick (my niece as it happens) for lumping on Johnston’s in the first instead of Foxy Lady please come and rescue me.

          1. I am tempted, both Kevin and Mark train a lot in cutting ground so stands to reason their runners can generally produce but I’m siding with Sulafaat.

  2. Whilst looking at the 2 ES qualifiers in the 4.15 I also looked at Pete So High as it was mentioned by another tipster I follow. What stood out is Hannon’s record at the track this year, he is 3/6, 5 places. With the 3 winners being the last 3 races. The horse looks to have run well LTO and notably has SDS booked for the ride today. With 2 ES qualifiers in the race it might not be wise to wade in too heavily, but it looked the more interesting 1 of the 3 to me at 7/1 last night.

    1. If you can live with an un-backed 2/1 shot winning James, and two losing bets, i’d personally ditch the 2/1 ES shot in favour of the other two- certainly if you have a strong view on another one, such as Hannon’s- you could use 2/1 shot as saver to cover other two bets, but then it becomes an expensive race if say the O’Keefe horse wins! Up to you, your money obviously! It’s fun to take a view, as long as you can cope when you get it wrong- which in these price ranges happens regularly enough 🙂 (well, for me it does)

      1. Well done James, hope you went with your thoughts…sounds like you did, good stattage/reasoning etc. Lovely job.

          1. I managed to get 6/1 this morning.
            put my £5 free skybet bet to good use for a change

  3. Heard a word for Bossipop in the 3.45 at Ripon. Also stat of the day on Geegeez. All the racing today looks hard with big fields and the low quality you get on a Monday.

    1. Yep, again at the shorter end for me – but he has the prime draw – i did have a look when looking at Red Pike, if he breaks I suspect he will make all up that rail, or give it a good go. 3/4 other front runners but as long as they dont get ahead of him and cross over- unlikely- I can see him following up if jock gets pace right. Most in here have the odd question or two but these sprints always competitive enough. GL if you play. Could make that look a good price, time will tell.

  4. Hi Josh joined Friday two winners out of two so far mountain rescue and taxme if you can. Really enjoying the stats a word of caution on the es selection royal reserve trainer David omera 1 winner from 70 runners last 14 days. Don’t know if they have had issue in the yard but that is very poor strike rate paul

    1. Hi Paul,
      Thanks for giving it a go… if you can keep up that ES SR you’ll be doing well haha- yep, have just updated ES Flat since inception, +7 last week…. now… 108 bets / 24 wins / 48 w|p / 22% w sr / 44% w|p sr / +55.2 points / +41 BFSP … those are solid enough stats I think! 100 bets+ now, and the win/place strike rates are in line with the historical research, so if they keep repeating, given we have no odds caps etc, in theory – touch wood- it should just keep climbing. Albeit they haven’t had a bad run yet which nags at me, as they will do at some point. In truth if the Flat Elite Squad, and Jumps, could average 50-100 points per season I think I would take that, a +100 point calendar year year in year out from a bread and butter strategy, would provide a nice foundation. Those stats above suggest that is at the cautious end, but time will tell.

      If you like applying your own thoughts/using content as a starting point, with any luck you enjoy your time here, but I never take offence if it transpires it isn’t for you.

      O’Meara – yep I should have mentioned that stat, it makes his look even shorter- the place stats should give him some confidence, to a point- but many are just not finishing off their races- two possibilities- he has an issue in the yard, or has had some problem of sorts… or he just has a load of horses who are handicapped up to the hilt – I don’t think he has been ‘in form’ yet this season- I can’t remember him banging them in- one to watch- as if he hits a run, he could have a shed full of winners in a short time- if he gets them right/ as he has plenty whose marks are falling I suspect.

      Josh

      1. Josh
        This he’s hit the bounce at the moment. He changed yards and got off to a flying start and was improving on his old yards strike rate. Now nothing seems to be sustaining it’s run to the winning post. As you say when he starts getting winners there’s going to be lots of them.

  5. Josh
    Watched the 3.30 race and either the ground has dried or the horse ran poorly. Don’t think it was a case of being outclassed because he tried to make a forwards move but seemed to tire very quickly at the furlong pole. Something must be amiss with the stable.

    1. 3.15? Yep I had a 5 on which is my ‘set and forget/in case I get it wrong, flat ES stake ‘ … that was a flat run and the way she found nothing suggests issues… albeit she has never really ran well on turf as yet and if there is soft in the going that could be a valid excuse- given all form on AW you’d generally assume she would want it firmer. The fact Omeara keeps running them suggests he hasn’t found anything too serious – as you would just stop, or be ordered to by BHA if risk of contaminating others at race track. So, he just keeps on running them, ensuring their marks can only go one way, legitimately. When it all clicks, if it ever does, he could have some fun- or have a phenomenal winter all-weather campaign!! Remember Hannon had that last season, or season before- was a bit flat last half of flat season but they all came back into form over winter etc. A yard to track, but his recent stats are not improving. His fav in 4.15 should be going very close on paper, and may be more of an indication.

  6. A GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2017!

    Hi Josh
    Bit of an ‘ouch’ days so far on the ES Flat. Still a mighty return to date and hopefully a few more points profit by the end of Sept. My target is 50 points BSP profit for ES Flat 2017. If I achieve this I will be very happy indeed.

    The above is an aside to what I’m really writing to you about:

    MEMBERS’ NOTES GOODWOOD 2017
    Taking a somewhat simplistic approach to your meeting analysis I tracked Mark Johnson only simply because he had more runners than any of the trainers you analysed. Tracking all of his Cl 2 entries only gives the following return over the five days:
    Class 2 runners: 17
    Class 2 winners: 4 @ 9/1, 12/1,11/1 & 5/2 SP. This gives 21.5 points profit at SP.
    Filtering out the 4 nurseries runners gives a further 4 points profit.
    Filtering out the 16/1 or above runners gives an additional 3 points which leaves a return of 28.5 points profit at SP from 10 bets. HOW’S THAT FOR A GLORIOUS GOODWOOD?

    Needless to say, didn’t have a bob on any of these but taken together with what you’ve highlighted from the trainer at Goodwood in the previous five years I know who I will be backing at next year’s meeting!!!

    And you did much the same Josh with your analysis of A O’Brien at the Curragh meeting. Can’t find my notes on this as I write but I’m sure I’ll unearth it and post. A further definite for my betting roster next year. Ballydoyle seldom have longish off periods, nor does Mullins for that matter so safe enough options with a view to betting.

    I’m sorting a summary of my take on Willie Mullins at this year’s Galway Festival and hopefully will post in due course.
    Needless to say, this showed a profitable return too.

    Thanks Josh. This is great fun here at Racing to Profit and since joining early in the year my paper trading is showing a healthy return.

    Patrick

    1. Hi Patrick,
      We try and do fun here! As a minimum.
      The big meetings notes are what they are- they always seem to find a few decent priced winners, and also a shed full of losers- it’s about using them as starting points and with any luck coming out in front.
      The Johnston Micro was there based on confidence, mainly on the stats etc- good number. They came out on +10 points if you had just backed all qualifiers once which was decent enough. Or you could have used the pointers in other ways.

      The odds caps trainers have done well at the shorter end… Stoute/Hannon had a few, and Mullins at Galway, esp on the flat, kept up his incredible record with those priced 5/1< SP. A few decent priced ones also dotted around. As always it is about getting the balance right, (esp whether to be focused on 1 or 2 trainers, versus adding in a few more with lesser stats) but hopefully however members attack them, if at all, it makes a meeting more enjoyable, and over time, when you add a few meetings up, they help. Josh

    1. Well Darren there is no need for a well done there, far from it! Didn’t mention him in notes and didn’t have a penny on – backing all quals in section 1 is not advised and to date would have lost you plenty, as per welcome note- they are a starting point – but if you have picked him out and had a go then give yourself a pat on the back- I don’t deserve much of one this time haha.
      Josh

  7. Well as its a pointer, it drew my attention to the horse/race and i punted accordingly ie 1pt
    I never punt blind and had a look at the trainer/jockey combo and thought it was worthy of a min stakes ew punt.
    As far as i’m concerned your write up did its job. Drew my attention to a possible punt.
    It was my decision to go with it.

    1. I am about to flog myself on video haha- but reading that reply has made me smile- you have summed up the whole purpose of this approach rather succinctly – used as a starting point, added in some of your own thoughts, and wallop. Great to hear. And with any luck you got a fair bit of satisfaction from watching him win.

  8. Almost forgot (completely understand if you’ve no time) but i’m off to Haydock on Thursday so if you cast your eye over the card it would be appreciated.

    1. I’ll probably have time for a ‘quick’ flick through on Wednesday…albeit I may not be able to repeat the heroics of my last through the card attempt there, but I can try. I’ll see if I can squeeze it in.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.