Flat 2016: 60+ Day Trainers
5.55 Naas – Hawaam (20/1<)
6.25 Naas – Mbaady (20/1<)
A Perrett All-Weather (12/1<)
5.20 Ling – Chaparrachik
Below are some notes from today’s Members Post. These thoughts relate to the stats qualifiers in section 1 of that post. These are my own subjective thoughts on what looks interesting to me. Importantly there are the advised systematic strategies, esp the Elite Squad which has had a flying start (+47 points in 34 days or so), which remove any subjective thinking. My aim is to try and use my own stats quals to build on those profits. Do with the following as you please but if anything you find it an interesting read…
Sir Geoffrey – just to mention his Geegeez Speed figure which is massive compared to the rest in here- a ’76’ where the next best is 59,and most a fair bit lower than that. He is 11 and the last two runs may suggest he is going off the boil but there is the odd valid excuse for those last two runs. Now he will try and make all and he usually blasts out the gate. He could get out and bag the rail. The speed fig suggests they may not live with him. The downside is there is plenty of other pace in here and if he gets into a battle early his chance will be ruined. And he is 11. You’d think younger legs will get him again today. But at 10s there is enough there for me to throw something at him.
Bold Spirit – well I think the fav has a very good chance in this but his price is short, he has had an odd no. of days off suggesting an issue and soft ground (there is rain around,should be on soft side…HorseRacebase has it as soft,albeit RP as good to soft for now..) is also a question. His speed fig is big in this compared to the others. But- Bold Spirit is interesting at 7s/8s – I don’t think he likes GF, now 0/10,2p in handicaps on it – i think you can ignore most runs on that surface. This is his first run this year over 6f with give underfoot. He has dropped 6lb since the start of the season and gets a useful claim. He is 2/7,3p over CD and is well handicapped. Indeed he won over CD last August off 59, in near identical conditions. With the useful claim he races off 50 today. He is handicapped to strike at some point. There is a chance he makes all also, or in any case tracks anyone who goes past him early. Out of the three in the race he looks the most interesting and I have had a dart at 8s. Poor sod, he’s done for now.
Canny Style – arguably looks the most interesting one of the lot… cue tailed off last… He has only had 2 runs over 11/12f in a C6, and won them both. While not unexposed in terms of his total career runs- albeit only 4 still, he is unexposed over this trip and in this class. He drops into a C6 here which caught the eye, from a C4. That is quite a drop. His best runs have arguably come with give in the ground also and he could relish underfoot conditions. His jockey also looks like a star in the making and is on fire- 4/7,6p the last 14 days. I don’t pay attention to much that Timeform say- their main products are a ridiculous price to my eyes- but many clearly love them. But I do like some of their jockey analysis and I did note that Jamie Lynch said that on a few measures this lad is already out-performing plenty of seasoned pros. He can ride, and with any luck can ride this one to victory. 11/2 was just about ok for me.
I should mention Cockney Boy in the same race, where the market may guide to his chance- it’s his first run for M Appleby and that is the ‘way in’. He is 12/42,18p, +34 with horses from other yards first time up for him, in the last year. 19/77,30p the last 2 years, +50. He can improve them and they can leave any previous form well behind. If you play in the race/on the one above, he may be worth a saver just in case. On paper you couldn’t give much chance but all previous form could go out the window.
Over to Bath..
Well Babyfact is a ES (Elite Squad) qual and looks to have a solid chance- not much to add. She is well drawn for the first time in a few starts from memory and can make all. They will make plenty of use and won’t mind any rain- guessing a bit at Bath as to how much will fall. It may stay good, I can’t think it will be worse than Good to Soft. Hopefully she goes well. May get collared by something with more in hand but she will appreciate this longer trip more than the bare 5f and usually tries her heart out.
Both in the 3.40 can be given a chance to my eye for one reason or another. Silver Link is unexposed over the trip. At the price I am a bit put off by the fact he lost a median auction maiden stakes LTO at 4/6, and a time the yard was red hot- they are still ‘in form’. That suggests he was fit but maybe he will come on for the run. Price is short for me in that context, but he could dot up. Stockhill Diva will appreciate the drop back in class and hard to say he can’t be in the mix. He’s an ES qual anyway and hopefully wins!
Over to Leicester…
Hajjam – i stared at him for a while. I think he could go close here. He is more on the unexposed side and is 6/1+. He was the first that was close to Bet of The Day Territory (unexposed/6/1+)- but, he does have to prove he handles soft and he has to prove that he is up to C4- in the end those two things just nagged at my confidence for 1 point purposes. Maybe I have over-thought it. 8f on Gf may not have been idea the last day. They went a slow pace, he pulled for a bit, and then got trapped for most of the way up the straight. When he tried to get racing room he was bumped back behind the leaders. He handled cut at Wetherby a couple of starts back and ran well enough in a C4, having to run up the middle which may have been a slower part of the track. This is only his 4th handicap and first in open company, where he gets the allowances. I thought this bigger field and this stiff finish may be ideal over 7f, on what I have seen on video. IF he handles the rise in class, and actually does like soft ground! Maybe worth something at 8s, but I won’t be taking out a loan to back him. (clearly that’s never advisable! slow and steady :))
Dora’s Field- hmmm. The trainer form caught the eye here- 3/7,4p in the last 14 days, 4/16,6p the last 30 days. This will be only the 3rd start for the yard having shown the odd bit of promise for Ed Dunlop. Her two best runs have been over 10f with give underfoot and in C5 – which she gets today. She drops in class here and the trainer can ready they after a break. The niggle is that run LTO which was awful, and the break suggests something went amiss. So there are doubts there. She does get first time headgear also, so again ‘doing something different’. They may help albeit suggest connections think she could be doing more. I wouldn’t put 1 point on her, I haven’t, but again at 12s I probably can’t help myself for 1/2.
If I had a gun to my head, which is never an ideal situation to be in, I would say I’m most excited about watching Bold Spirit, Canny Style and Babyfact. You now know to focus on the rest! 🙂
GL with any bets.