Members Daily Post: 27/07/17 (complete)

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

No ‘tip’ today again, but some notes…

Flat…

It’s hard to be confident on much today for me but..

The unexposed ones… lightly raced/could show more one day…

Shyarch – having his second handicap start (trainer 0/12,2p with those having second run in a handicap,last 2 years) but he did show some promise LTO- he was slow away and was stuck in a pocket for a time near the business end. When he got out he ran on well enough, going forwards at the finish. That was after 56 days as well. He runs as if he wants 7f to my eye and my concern is the lack of searing pace in this race (on paper at least- there are a handful that have front run but that are also happy track, maybe there will be a ‘burn up’) – suspect something may have a quicker change of gear. On the plus side trainer/jockey are 4/26,9p in turf handicaps, 3/11,4p at track. Trainer is 6/28,10p, +44 with 3 year olds at the track, in handicaps, last 5 years. So, there are some positives. And maybe he was just green the last day. I think he will be staying on late again but he is a decent price and may be worth a small wager. Nowhere near the Babyfact confidence levels, as has questions etc, but you can make a case. Albeit my ‘confetti’ bets didn’t pull up any trees yesterday. (1/4s, 1/2s points sprayed around etc)  He could just be very moderate.

Meyandi- he is in the unexposed camp making handicap debut, stepping up in trip. So, those boxes are ticked. I think he is a silly price personally. Maybe he hacks up and wins like an evens shot but he has fitness to prove, and stamina, and the ground is an unknown. Such reasons are why I like 6/1, 8/1+ on such types, backing them in the home they get punted in and hack up. But, he is unexposed. When flicking through the race with geegeez cards, Take Two jumped out on the ‘instant expert’ tab and if you had to play in the race may be worthy of closer inspection. Possibly.

Captain Hawk- 0/7,0p in career… lightly raced but hasn’t done much as yet and I am not sure why he will today. His rating is now 8lb lower than when making handicap debut three starts ago. He pulled like a train the last day in first time CP. There is a chance that he settles in them better today. I also think this race is there to be stolen from the front and sending a keen sort forward in the hope they settle better is always an option. It can light them up more though. Depends on the horse. Clutching at straws maybe and the yard isn’t exactly firing, 0/20,8p last 14 days. He is 4/13,5p all runners at the track in the last year. Again, not one to go mad on if you place but he is a strat 2 qual at least. They may all be chasing Hugo’s horse but don’t let that put you off punt, you have to take these on.

Been there and done it…

Jay Kay – I am being disciplined now with my ‘bet of the day’ on the flat, at least until i get that PL fig looking a bit healthier- unexposed/6/1+ the main starting point. This one is far from unexposed but you can make a decent case. He is a strat 2 also- has top geegeez speed figure and I hope they try and make all- all of his wins are when making all, or being so close to the pace he takes it up 2/3f out. He wont mind the soft turf and he is well handicapped again. The hood also returns having done far too much the last day without it. He was an ok second 4 starts back and is now 6lb lower. Every little helps. And that was in a C4. So, the hood and dictating from front could be reasons for improvement. Also, the yard is in better form. Burke is 3/13,4p in the last 7 days. In the 23 days before that he was 2/53,8p.  I think they are going better than they were! Maybe that is an excuse for recent poor runs since that decent second. There is enough there for a bet and maybe I will start using bold as an indication of my confidence levels compared to others. That may be useful, it may not. It worked yesterday, a good start. 

These are 34 bets / 4 wins / 11 places (inc wins) -7.8  … since the start, at same time as Flat… I use the same criteria as per flat ES report above. The place % is starting to give me confidence and plenty have run well at decent prices. It should only be a matter of time but some caution. I’ll re-asses at 50 bets mark but with any luck these will be a cornerstone of the winter stats approach.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Galway Notes:  Read HERE>>>

Six trainers of interest there with a variety of interesting ‘positive pointers’. They look good on paper and we shall find out next week if they help highlight any decent priced winners.

Goodwood… those notes are nearly done. Mark Johnston is the main focus and I just want to home in on a ‘micro system’ or two- but plenty of tasty pointers. Also a handful of pointers for Gosden/Stoute/Balding/Hannon. I’ll get those complete in good time.

One of my main tasks tomorrow is to write my monthly 2000 word article for the Betting School/Insiders Club, which they let me share with you. Part of that will be notes for York’s Ebor Meeting in August.  I will also take a look at any August/Sept/Oct trainers on the flat – and latter half of the season specialists, as well as a trainer or two ‘in focus’. I may have a closer look at Charlie Appleby and see if any ways in with his – mainly as he has plenty of decent priced winners of big races, esp handicaps- well they stick in the mind anyway. We shall see what the stats say!  

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ELITE SQUAD (Flat)… BETFAIR SP…

I have had a look at this and as of the close of play Sunday, (as per results link in Key above) these were showing a profit of +37 points to BFSP. (after commission) So, 10 points behind generally available morning prices/BOG. Still pretty decent, so far.

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