Members Daily Post: 21/07/17 (complete)

quals+ratings pointers+test zone + 2x bets of day+notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Newbury 

3.15 – St Marys (3yo+) I3 12/1 UP 25/1

4.55 – Hedging (all hncps) 16/1  UP

5.25 – Miracle Garden (all hncps) I3 G3 8/1

 

Haydock

1.50- Latham (micro TJC) 8/1 UP 6/1 (R4)>4/1 UP

Meeting Abandoned 

3.30 – Punkawallah (BONUS) 14  ES H3 G1 7/2

4.05 – Legato (BONUS) 14  ES G1  20/1

5.05 – Captain Revelation (all hncps,4yo+) 14  ES H3 I3 G1  9/2

 

Nottingham

3.40 – Wentworth Falls (3yo+) H3 I3 G1 5/1

4.45 –

Palmerston (micro class) ES I1 G3 11/2 UP

Normandy Lady (micro going IF GOOD) H1 I3 6/1

5.15 – Shearian (all hncps) G3 8/1 UP

 

Newmarket (July)

5.35 – Trulee Scrumptious (all hncps) H1 I3   7/2 UP

 

Hamilton 

5.45 –

Hernando Torres (all hncps) H3 I3 11/4 WON 11/4>5/2

Framley Garth (all hncps, 4yo+, + micro age) I3 G1 4/1 UP

6.50 – Glen Rowan Rose (micro runs) ES I3 16/1 WON 16/1 (hopefully you may have got bigger,20s,22s around at times)

7.20 –

Hoof It (all hncps) 18/1 UP

Get Knotted (3yo+, + micro distance) I1 G3 12/1 3rd 15/2

Sharp Defence (3yo+) 9/1 UP

Dark Defender (micro runs) ES 14/1 2nd 28/1

8.25 –

Colour Contrast (micro class) H3 4/1 UP

Optima Petamus (micro age) 16/1 UP

8.55 –

Archipeligo (micro class )H1 I3 11/2 2nd 

Cliff Bay (micro runs) ES I3 7/2 UP

 

Pontefract

6.30 – Powerful Society (2YO) 16/1 UP

7.35 –

Oriental Relation (all hncps) 14 I3 14/1 UP

Rasheeq (3yo+, + TJC) I1 9/1 UP

Confessional (3yo+) I1 (joint top I1) 16/1

Sandras Secret (3yo+) G3  22/1 UP

8.05 –

Sands Chorus (all hncps) 14 H1 6/1  UP

Cote D’Azur (3yo+) I1 8/1 UP

Torrid (micro age) 8/1 UP

9.05 –

Mishaal (3yo+) H1 I3 G3 9/2 UP 

Kommander Kirkup (3yo+) 28/1 3rd 33/1

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/50,20p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/1111, +24.6)

 

1.50 Hayd – Lathom – 1 point win – 8/1 | 15/2 (both gen available) UP 6/1>4/1 … hmmm.. i have no idea what to make of that- he did blow the start a bit and maybe that was game over- well it probably was given ground he lost. Despite 7 non runners they have gone a pace- the winner has sat off the front 4/5 for most of that and ground them down. So,that theory held up. But he was never travelling early,taken off feet a bit. Strange. Finished with plenty left in the tank once he got going but race is gone. He is tricky and you’d want a price. I can see the cliff edge on the horizon..he’ll have to be backed again in a big field sprint…

7.35 Ponte – Rasheeq – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)

 

I have had a look through any ‘non strategy’ qualifiers and at the prices I want to have these two on side. They will both be doing their best work late and will need plenty of luck but I think you can make a case for the pair. They are not quite at the unexposed end but at the same time don’t have many miles on the clock for sprinters…

Lathom– He gets a headgear switch and a drop in class here which caught the eye. He is a bit of a thinker but this is the easiest 5f contest he has faced in his life to date. He used to be rated OR100 and in the high 90s for a few handicaps. His mark is getting tempting now and you would hope they could find him an opportunity soon, with any luck that is today. He needs a rattling fast pace to run at- he likes to be settled out the back and to come through horses- well, that’s what his form suggests. He has some cracking big field form in much much better races than this. And he is still only 4. He is versatile as to the ground and won’t mind any rain that falls here. They are due light rain all day which may send it on the soft side of good. A swamp would be an unknown. I think he could get the pace set up also- 4 or 5 front runners in here and I/we need them to go quick. He will be doing his best work late and unlike a few in here turns up in good form. It looks an open enough race although the Candy horse could just be a blot and have plenty in hand. But you have to take those types on. This one is definitely one to track and if not today then maybe if he turns up in a 16+ runner C4 job. He is going to win very well at some point given that back class.

Rasheeq – Another who drops back in class and back to turf from Newcastle LTO- i’ll just trust that he didn’t pick up on that surface. It could be that he is now out of form. But, based on his previous three runs I wanted to have a go here. IF he repeats either of the two York runs he must go close. It all happened a bit too quick at Muss two starts ago and he had to be taken into the middle of the track with all the action happening nearside. He ran a decent race. David Allan is back on board and I would like to think they have put Confessional in here to bustle up those on the front end. Sands C and Oriental Relation will hopefully go too hard on the front end and set it up. He will need to get a good position. He also runs at Ponte for the first time and there is every chance he relishes this stiff climb to the line. This track climbs from a long way out. I think there is a chance he bursts through and takes this. He is 0/9,2p on the turf and is open to progress as a sprinter. GF is a slight unknown but he ran at Muss in a way that suggested he handled it, going forward not backwards. And it is an unknown- so you can take a chance at a price. He has yet to prove he doesn’t handle it. This is a weaker race than some of those sprints to my eye and fingers crossed he can run a good race. No doubt one of the other qualifiers will now leave egg on my face but he looked the best of them to me.

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That’s it for ‘bets of the day’..

The weather is tricky again today> if the forecasts are to be believed Ponte is set fair (no rain) as is Nottingham (good to soft) and Newmarket. Hamilton could get 1-3 mil,it is good but my hunch is it could be on easy side,but guessing a bit- it certainly isn’t firm anyway. Newbury is tricky as they could get more rain which could turn it soft,depending on when it arrives. Haydock is tricky- light rain turning heavier from 4pm. Who knows what different that may make to the ground.

Some notes on a few of the runners…

Legato- TD does have the odd monster one drop in here, unexpected- he is up in class but is also up in trip and will handle any cut. The jockey bookings will be due to the weight and in fairness it is easy to be put off given the profile/yards of a few of the others in here. Seems a deep race and probably clutching at straws but you never know!

Captain Revelation- I remember Dascombe said LTO that this one has a mind of his own. IF he puts it all together he takes this for me- but it is an if. He stayed on well the last day and they move him back up in trip – so doing something different from last run. If the rain gets in that is an unknown but he should race up there and there won’t be an excuse in terms of pace. He may even try and make all. My hunch is he prefers decent ground but yet to conclusively prove he hates softer,albeit some poor runs on it.

GlenRowan Rose- a tasty price but I think you can give a chance to most in here and again KD has the odd biggie pop up with this angle. The market can mean sod all. Maybe she is just out of sorts but there is no pace in the race which can lead to strange results and gives the opp for someone to try and dictate from the front. She is very well handicapped on old form and takes a drop in class. Hard to say she can’t win and at 20s i’ll be having a roll of the dice. One of these will drop in at some point.

Final mention just for Mishaal – who I fancied the last day on my jolly to Ponte, a 1-2 for the stats in that race, coming second at 25/1. We also had the winner. He takes a massive drop down in class here and gets his preferred ground. There is also a chance he could make all if they wanted to and is drawn low enough to attack. He is 4s so no doubt i’ve cursed him but with any luck he provides a decent end to the day.

It’s a marathon, not a sprint.Plenty of these,esp strategy quals, look like they should run their race and hopefully a winner or three dotted around.

GL with whatever you back today, as always.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds) 

3.15 Newb – Renfrew Street

7.20 Ham – Rich And Famous

8.25 Ham- Bonnie Arlene

 

Irish Angles

8.30 Kilb – Marinero / Riveria Sun (both any odds)

 

Jockey CD 

3.30 Hayd  – Punkawallah (any odds, 9/2< best)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

NOTE: 

A quick mention about the 1st Time 2 Year Old qualifiers (2YO).. after an 11/1>9/2 winner yesterday. The odd angle, maybe just one (Hannon/Sandown) is an ES system but most the numbers are small enough. BUT, given they are unraced they will never have any of the three ratings pointers and won’t qualify on other strategies.

For info, all such 2YO qualifiers are now: 39 bets / 6 wins / / 17 win|places /  +16 points (early/BOG) /+7 BFSP (after com).

Winners on morning prices of 8.5/1, 12/1,7/1,5/4,8/1,11/1 (yesterday)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

12 Responses

    1. blimey,you’re a braver punter than i. Bet you have an approach so best stick to it I suppose. As yet Flat stats haven’t been finding the biggies,but maybe one may go in today. These days usually go one of two ways and let’s hope no nappies are required! GL

        1. Lovely! Was that the BFSP?? Bugger haha. Happy with the 20s I go…again never thought to look BF, always the way- hoped may get punted in. Well done! Pays for a few others haha. One for the Elite Squad. Delighted.

  1. already posted in free daily but thought i would stick it in here as well.
    has anyone used Racing Breaks? looking to book for Cheltenham and they are offering 2 days ( 1&2 or 2&3) best mate enclosure ,overnight b&b, free parking, shuttle bus to course £209. there is an upgrade to tattersalls for £35 available but as i have never been to Cheltenham before don’t know if it’s worth the extra, any advice? also trying to choose between champions day and St patricks day i’m leaning towards St patricks, any opinions advice gratefully recieved.

    1. Club is much better than the other enclosures but Best Mate is considered ok. I would say that earlier in the week is best and Gold Cup day tends to have a lot of coach trips! The Guinness will flow hard on St P day.

    2. As a member at Cheltenham definitely worth the upgrade as you’ll get access to paddock and much more bookmakers with better prices and crucially a better view

  2. Not great prices on 2 of Dascombes today so maybe a small patent and hope lightening strikes twice again.If Legato wins could be fun

    1. The handicap double pays 25/1 and so worth a stab.

      In the 5.35 NKT I like Auntie Barber at 20/1 each way.

    1. pleasure, glad you had a go. Those are the winners that really boost the bottom line. Went to plan as well- had a hunch he may try and make all given no pace in race. Bagged rail and it was exciting at that point. Can never be put off with price, esp ES it seems! That was fun.

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